Carver County Economic Development PlanWelcome City of Chanhassen
City Council
April 14, 2008
Chanhassen City Council
John Sullivan, Economic Development Director
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Introduction
The Carver County CDA engaged the services of
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McComb Group, LTDto conduct a county-wide
Retail and Business Park Demand Study.
The study was developed in order to provide
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planning data for the Carver County 2030
Comprehensive Plan, specifically the Economic
Development Element and to be utilized by Carver
County Cities in the development of their
Comprehensive Plans.
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Methodology
Growth in Carver County will not end in 2030, thus a
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25% contingency has been added to the demand
calculations.
merchandise categories
Retail include space for
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General Merchandise, Food Service and
Convenience Goods.
service categories
Retail include space for services
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(insurance/real estate sales, personal care, repair
etc…), health care and financial entities.
Business Park categories include Commercial
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Office, Office Warehouse, Office Showroom and
Bulk Warehouse.
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Methodology for Retail
Estimates for Retail land demand for all retail areas
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(city, node, or major intersection) are based on sales
potentialfor retail, services and healthcare reported
for each cityby the US Census Bureau.
pastmarket
Retail and Sales Service potentialare based on the
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share
trends in the retail area (Chanhassen), trade area households,
future growth and potential competitive developments.
Current market share
estimates for the retail area (Chanhassen) are
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based on analysis conducted in conjunction with this study, 1997 and
2002 retail and service sales in the retail area (Chanhassen) and
McComb Group’s knowledge of the Twin Cities area retail market.
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Chanhassen Downtown Trade Area
Retail Purchasing Power, 1997 to 2030
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Convenience
Goods
19972000200520102015202020252030
Food Stores$220,242$291,811$368,512$551,914$682,194$ 840,261$1,031,516$1,262,478
Drug & 46,79862,005110,142164,957203,887251,139308,302377,333
Proprietary
Hardware10,96814,53219,04328,52135,25243,42153,30565,240
Liquor26,61635,265 47,60871,30288,129108,553133,261163,100
Florist5,8507,7519,26413,87517,14921,12425,93231,738
Food/Health 1,4621,9383,0884,6255,7167,0418,64410,579
supplement
past and current market share
The = estimated sales potential for
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the retail area (Chanhassen) to 2030 AND allows McComb Group to
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identify the retail and service sales over time as the trade area
households and purchasing power increases.
Chanhassen Trade Area Retail Purchasing Power,
Market Share and Sales Potential, 2030
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Convenience Goods
Resident Purchasing Est. Market Trade Area Trade Other Estimated
PowerShareSalesArea %ShoppersTotal Sales
Food Stores
$1,262,47810%$95,50190%$10,611$ 106,112
Drug & Proprietary
377,3335%18,86785%3,32922,196
Stores
Hardware
65,2405%3,26285%576 3,838
Liquor
163,1005%8,15585%1,4399,594
Florist
31,7385%1,58785%2801,867
Food/Health supplement
10,5795%52985%93622
stores
Residential purchasing power and market share is estimated for
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each retail and service category by looking at past market
share performance, trade area size, competitive store locations
McComb Group’s industry experience
and .
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Chanhassen Trade Area
Retail Sales Potential and Supportable Space, 2030
by Merchandise Category
Convenience Goods
Estimated Sales Sales Per Square Supportable Square Median
PotentialFootFeet
Store Size
Food Stores$106,112,000$ 400227,279*52,500
Drug & Proprietary Stores$ 22,196,000$ 46048,252 11,700
Hardware$ 3,838,000$ 18520,7467,857
Liquor$ 9,594,000$ 37525,5842,900
Florist$ 1,867,000$ 1909,8261,600
Food/Health supplement $ 622,000$ 2502,4881,500
stores
median store size
The last column contains the from Dollars & Sense of Shopping Centers, published by
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the Urban Land Institute for each store type.
Estimates of land needed for retail, service and other uses are based on the assumption that one acre can
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support 10,000 square feel of gross leasable area (GLA), excluding water retention.
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*Median Store size for Grocery Stores (Supermarket/Convenience Food). The Median Store size for Specialty
Food stores (meat markets, fish/seafood market, fruit/veggie market) would be smaller = 2,000-2,400 sq ft.
Chanhassen
Retail Demand
Current Retail Trade Nodes/Intersections
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Existing Retail Space
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Downtown Chanhassen
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Competitive Retail Trade Areas
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Downtown Chanhassen:
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Primary, Other, Future
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Trade Area Map for Downtown Chanhassen
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Development Potential
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Downtown Chanhassen
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Powers Blvd and New TH-212
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Trade Area Map
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TH-101 and New TH-212
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Trade Area Map
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Summary & Recommendations
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Chanhassen
Current Retail Trade
Nodes/Intersections
Downtown Chanhassen:
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82 Retail Stores/businesses
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97 Service Stores/businesses
TH-7 & TH-41:
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16 Retail Stores/Businesses
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TH-5 & Century:
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22 Service Stores/ Businesses
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13 Retail Stores/Businesses
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12 Service Stores/Businesses
Other TH-5:
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3 Retail Stores/Businesses
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TH-5 & Galpin:
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25 Service Stores/Businesses
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2 Retail Stores/Businesses
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0 Service Stores/Businesses
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Total Retail Stores/Businesses:
116 Retail & 156 Service
Total Square Feet
= 1,793,136
Total Acres
= 301.2
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Downtown Chanhassen
Existing Retail Space
Table 3-3
DOWNTOWN CHANHASSEN RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE AND LAND; 1986 TO 2006
(Square Feet and Acres)
Gross Building AreaLand
Category19861986-19911992-19961997-20012002-20062006(acres)
Retail 123,225 26,965 338,136 65,682 42,927 596,935 48.0
Food - Full Service - 6,047 11,646 12,295 - 29,988 5.0
Food - Limited Service - - 5,349 6,870 8,556 20,775 6.0
Service 132,563 96,489 41,999 23,417 19,678 314,146 21.0
Financial - 14,960 16,410 9,580 10,754 51,704 8.0
Medical - 21,600 10,620 - 20,400 52,620 4.0
Total 255,788 166,061 424,160 117,844 102,315 1,066,168 92.0
Source: Carver County and McComb Group, Ltd.
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Downtown Chanhassen
Competitive Retail Areas
PRIMARY:
Waconia
: 73 retail stores and 108 services
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Downtown Chaska
: 43 retail stores and 61 services
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TH-41 & Pioneer Trail
: 25 retail stores and 19 services
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OTHERS:
TH-41 & TH-7
: 16 retail stores and 22 services
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Victoria
: 22 retail stores and 23 services
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TH-7 & TH-101
: 35 retail stores and 22 services
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TH-5 & EP Road
: 12 retail stores and 14 services
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FUTURE:
Powers Blvd & New TH-212
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TH-101 & New TH-212
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Chanhassen
Retail Development Potential
Trade Area Households + Future Population
Growth + Potential Competitive Developments =
Future Retail Development Potential
Chanhassen’s increased retail and service potential results
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mainly from these two areas:
Trade Area Households,
which increase from 66,865 in 2006 to
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127,227 in 2030.
Trade Area Population,
which increases from 172,322 in 2006 to
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340,700 in 2030.
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Downtown Chanhassen
Retail Development Potential
Table 3-9
DOWNTOWN CHANHASSEN RETAIL SPACE AND LAND; 2006 AND 2030 ESTIMATED
(Square Feet and Acres)
Square FeetAcres
Category2006Increase20302006Increase*2030
Retail 596,935 229,005 825,940 48 23 71
Food - Full Service 29,988 41,462 71,450 5 4 9
Food - Limited Service 20,775 41,036 61,811 6 4 10
Service 314,146 118,517 432,663 21 12 33
Financial 51,704 53,704 105,408 8 5 13
Medical 52,620 85,969 138,589 4 9 13
Total 1,066,168 569,693 1,635,861 92 57 149
Contingency (25%) 142,423 142,423 14 14
Total 1,066,168 712,116 1,778,284 92 71 163
*Based on 10,000 square feet per acre.
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Source: Carver County and McComb Group, Ltd.
Chanhassen
Powers Blvd & NewTHPowers Blvd & NewTH--212212
Retail Development Potential
Table 3-15
POWERS BOULEVARD AND NEW TH-212 RETAIL SPACE AND LAND; 2006 AND 2030 ESTIMATED
(Square Feet and Acres)
Square FeetAcres
Category2006Increase20302006Increase*2030
Retail - 978,870 978,870 - 98 98
Food - Full Service - 61,572 61,572 - 7 7
Food - Limited Service - 40,966 40,966 - 4 4
Service - 36,902 36,902 - 4 4
Financial - 24,629 24,629 - 3 3
Medical - 30,315 30,315 - 3 3
Subtotal - 1,173,254 1,173,254 - 119 119
Contingency (25%) 293,314 293,314 30 30
Total - 1,466,568 1,466,568 - 149 149
*Based on 10,000 square feet per acre.
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Source: Carver County and McComb Group, Ltd.
Chanhassen
New THNew TH--212 & TH212 & TH--101101
Retail Development Potential
Table 3-21
TH-101 AND NEW TH-212 RETAIL SPACE AND LAND; 2006 AND 2030 ESTIMATED
(Square Feet and Acres)
Square FeetAcres
Category2006Increase20302006Increase*2030
Retail 150,740 150,740 15 15
Food - Full Service 9,144 9,144 1 1
Food - Limited Service 13,633 13,633 2 2
Service 50,262 50,262 5 5
Financial 21,876 21,876 3 3
Medical 11,938 11,938 2 2
Subtotal - 257,593 257,593 - 28 28
Contingency (25%) 64,398 64,398 7 7
Total - 321,991 321,991 - 35 35
*Based on 10,000 square feet per acre.
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Source: Carver County and McComb Group, Ltd.
Chanhassen Retail Summary &
Recommendations:
Chanhassen currently has 1,793,136 sq feet of retail
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stores, food service & services.
additional
McComb Market Analysis indicates an
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712,116 square feet
is supported by trade area
Downtown Chanhassen.
households for
Retail
: additional 229,005 sq feet
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PLUS
Services
: additional 118,517 sq feet
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Financial services: 53,704 sq feet
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Medical services: 85,969 sq feet
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Food Service
: additional 82,498 sq feet
–
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Chanhassen Retail Summary &
Recommendations:
Estimated Total sq ft in Downtown Chanhassen at
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2030 = 1,778,284 (including the contingency)
McComb Market Analysis estimates land needed is
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71 additional acres for a total of 163 acres by 2030,
excluding land area required for water retention.
(including contingency)
Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Chanhassen Retail Summary &
Recommendations:
McComb Market Analysis indicates that 1,466,568
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square feet
can be supported by trade area
Powers Blvd & New TH-212.
households for
McComb Market Analysis estimates land required
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would be 149 acres by 2030, excluding land area
required for water retention. (including contingency)
Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Chanhassen Retail Summary &
Recommendations:
321,991
McComb Market Analysis indicates that
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square feet
can be supported by trade area
TH-101 & New TH-212.
households for
McComb Market Analysis estimates land required
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would be 35 acres by 2030, excluding land area
required for water retention. (including contingency)
Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Chanhassen Retail Summary &
Recommendations:
Downtown Chanhassen’s trade are will support more space than
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exists today, but there is little vacant land to accommodate
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additional development
Significant additional retail development would entail re-
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development Downtown Chanhassen.
Market research identified two potential retail areas along New
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TH-212.
TH-101 and Powers Boulevard-both guided for Commercial, Office
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or Mixed Use.
Additional retail land demand for the 3 Major Retail Trade/Shopping
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Areas is estimated at 204-255 acres.
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Source: McComb Group, LTD
Chanhassen
Business Park Demand
Existing Business Park and Land
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Business Park Potential
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Commercial Office
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Office Warehouse/Industrial
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Office Showroom
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Bulk Warehouse
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Business Park Summary & Recommendations
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Chanhassen Existing
Business Park & Land
Table 3-1
CHANHASSEN BUSINESS PARK AND LAND; 1986 TO 2006
MULTI-TENANT AND SINGLE TENANT BUILDINGS
(Square Feet and Acres)
IncreaseGross
Pre-19861986-19911992-19961997-20012002-2006BuildingLand
CategorySq. FeetSq. FeetSq. FeetSq. FeetSq. FeetArea(acres)
Commercial Office
Multi-Tenant 32,000 53,428 17,919 16,421 87,009 206,777 25.0
Single Tenant - 347,600 - 26,253 158,833 532,686 67.0
Subtotal 32,000 401,028 17,919 42,674 245,842 739,463 92.0
Office Showroom
Multi-Tenant 68,416 56,000 - 55,845 44,160 224,421 19.0
Single Tenant - - 15,372 - - 15,372 3.0
Subtotal 68,416 56,000 15,372 55,845 44,160 239,793 22.0
Office Warehouse/Industrial
Multi-Tenant 25,000 - 64,135 430,752 36,376 556,263 49.0
Single Tenant 20,280 71,764 62,695 547,435 73,664 775,838 97.0
Subtotal 45,280 71,764 126,830 978,187 110,040 1,332,101 146.0
Bulk Warehouse
Multi-Tenant 35,784 81,686 - - 48,042 165,512 15.0
Single Tenant 785,452 490,704 6,640 8,355 189,269 1,480,420 157.0
Subtotal 821,236 572,390 6,640 8,355 237,311 1,645,932 172.0
Total
966,932 1,101,182 166,761 1,085,061 637,353 3,957,289 432.0
Source: Carver County and McComb Group, Ltd.
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*
Office Showroom Space
The only in Carver County currently is in Chanhassen.
Chanhassen Existing
Business Park & Land
Chanhassen’s existing business park uses total over 3.9 million
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square feet and 432 acres of land.
Chanhassen’s largest category is Bulk Warehouse at 1.6
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million square feet of GLA.
Future Business Park development potential in the City of
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Chanhassen is related to the growth in the Metropolitan Area
and the portion that is likely to be captured by Carver County.
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Chanhassen
Commercial Office Potential
increased
Commercial office space in Chanhassen hasfrom 32,000 sq feet in
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1986 to 739,400 sq feet in 2006.
Net Absorption of 707,400 sq feet which = 94.2% of Carver County’s total Commercial
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Office space absorption.
Carver County is expected to capture an increasing share of the southwest
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corridor growth starting at 10% in 2007 and increasing to 20% from 2026-2030.
Chanhassen’s market share is estimated at 75% of the Carver County Growth
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from 2007-2010, decreasing 5% every 5 years to 2026. (Market Share 2026-
2030 = 57.5)
Chanhassen’s Commercial Office Potential to 2030 is estimated at 1.4 million
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square feet. (including contingency)
REMEMBER: some of Chanhassen’s “office” space is under retail due to the
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nature of the business (Banks, medical, insurance services, personal care
etc….)
Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Chanhassen Office
Warehouse/Industrial Potential
Chanhassen’s Office warehouse/industrial has increased by
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1,287,000 square feet since 1986.
This increase means that Chanhassen absorbed 40% of Carver
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County’s total absorption from 1991-2006.
Carver County is expected to capture 62.5% of the SW growth
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corridor beginning in 2007-2010 and increasing to 72.5% in
2026-2030.
Chanhassen’s market share of Carver County’s office
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warehouse/industrial growth is estimated at 50% beginning in
2007-2010 and decreasing to 46% from 2011-2015, continuing
to decrease every 5 years to 40% in 2026-2030.
This results in an increase of 3.4 million square feet (including
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the 25% contingency).
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Source: McComb Group, LTD
Chanhassen
Office Showroom Potential
all
Currently, office showroom space has been developed in
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Chanhassen.
Office Showroom Space has increased from 68,400 to 239,800
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from 1986-2006 in Chanhassen.
94% of the space is Multi-tenant.
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Chanhassen is expected to capture over 80% of future Carver
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County Office Showroom Space in the future.
100% absorption from 2007-2010.
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Decreasing by 5% every 5 years through 2030.
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Total office showroom development over the next 23 years is 368,000
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sq feet with contingency.
Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Chanhassen
Bulk Warehouse Potential
Chanhassen captured 37.4% of Carver County’s bulk warehouse absorption for
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a total of 824,700 sq ft from 1991-2006.
Single tenant buildings represent 84% of Chanhassen’s Bulk Warehouse.
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Bulk warehouse absorption is estimated to increase at 3.5 percent between
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2006 and 2030 in the Metro Area.
The southwest growth corridor is expected to capture a decreasing percentage
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of that growth, starting at 7.0 % in 2007 and decreasing to 5.0 % in 2026-2030.
Carver County is estimated to capture 37.0 percent of that absorption and
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Chanhassen is estimated at 10.0 percent per year absorption between 2007-
2030.
Decreasing from 8.5% to 6.5% in years 2011-2030.
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This results in an estimated 41,000 additional square feet of bulk warehouse
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space (including contingency).
Bulk Warehouse is expected to be limited in Chanhassen due to the land costs.
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Source: McComb Group, LTD
Chanhassen
Estimated Business Park Space
Demand; 2008-2030
Table 3-11
CHANHASSEN ESTIMATED BUSINESS PARK LAND DEMAND; 2008 TO 2030
Square
FeetSquare Feet
Category(000)Per AcreAcres
Office Warehouse/Industrial 3,401 15,000 227
Commercial Office 1,434 12,500 115
Office Showroom 368 15,000 25
Bulk Warehouse 41 15,000 3
Total 5,244 369
Source: McComb Group, Ltd.
*
The square feet above includes the 25% contingency for each category.
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Chanhassen
Business Park Summary &
Recommendations:
Future business park development in Chanhassen is related to growth in the
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Metro Area and the portion of the growth Carver County captures.
Actual demand in Chanhassen will depend on suitable available land,
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marketing incentives and developer or tenant interests.
Chanhassen’s total Business Park Space Demand is estimated at over 5.3
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million square feet (including the 25% contingency)
An estimated 369 acres of land is necessary to accommodate the estimated
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growth of 53. million sq ft.
12,500 sq ft per acre is used to calculate Commercial Office land demand because it
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has the highest parking demand.
15,000 sq ft per acre is used for all other business park categories.
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REMEMBER
: Chanhassen’s growth will not end in 2030.
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Source: McComb Group, LTD
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Question and Answer Period
Thank you for
participating
today.
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