11-12-2024 EDC Agenda PacketA.5:30 P.M. - CALL TO ORDER
B.APPROVAL OF AGENDA
Commissioners may add or delete items at this time.
C.APPROVAL OF MINUTES
C.1 Approve Economic Development Commission Minutes of October 15, 2024.
D.VISITOR PRESENTATIONS
D.1 Carver Co. Housing Needs Analysis
E.DISCUSSION / GENERAL BUSINESS ITEMS
E.1 Cannabis Ordinance Discussion
F.DIRECTOR'S REPORT
G.ADJOURNMENT
AGENDA
CHANHASSEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2024
COUNCIL CHAMBERS, 7700 MARKET BOULEVARD
1
Economic Development Commission Item
November 12, 2024
Subject Approve Economic Development Commission Minutes of October 15, 2024.
Section APPROVAL OF MINUTES Item No: C.1
Prepared By Kate Vogt, Admin Support Specialist File No:
SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
DISCUSSION
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Economic Development Commission approve the October 15, 2024
Commission minutes.
ATTACHMENTS
Economic Development Commission Minutes of October 15, 2024
2
CHANHASSEN ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION
REGULAR MEETING
October 15, 2024
Chair Anderson called the meeting to order at 5:35 p.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT: Chair Eric Anderson, Vice Chair Chris Freeman, Stacy Goff, David Benedict,
Luke Bame, Cohen Lee
MEMBERS ABSENT:
STAFF PRESENT: Samantha DiMaggio, Economic Development Manager
PUBLIC PRESENT:
APPROVAL OF AGENDA:
APPROVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION AGENDA DATED October 15, 2024
Commissioner Bame moved, and Commissioner Lee seconded to approve the Agenda of the Economic
Development Commission meeting dated October 15, 2024, as presented. All voted in favor and the
motion was carried unanimously with a vote of 6 to 0.
APPROVAL OF MINUTES:
APPROVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION MINUTES DATED September 10, 2024
Commissioner Benedict moved, and Commissioner Bame seconded to approve the Minutes of the
Economic Development Commission meeting dated September 10, 2024, as presented. All voted in favor
and the motion was carried unanimously with a vote of 6 to 0.
VISITOR PRESENTATIONS:
DISCUSSION/GENERAL BUSINESS ITEMS:
Discussion and Update on City Website Revisions.
ADJOURNMENT:
Commissioner Goff moved, and Commissioner Freeman seconded to adjourn the meeting. All voted in
favor and the motion was carried unanimously with a vote of 6 to 0. The Economic Development
Commission meeting was adjourned at 6:37 p.m.
Submitted by Samantha DiMaggio
Economic Development Manager
3
Economic Development Commission Item
November 12, 2024
Subject Carver Co. Housing Needs Analysis
Section VISITOR PRESENTATIONS Item No: D.1
Prepared By Sam DiMaggio, Economic Development Manager File No:
SUMMARY
Allison Streich, Executive Director, Carver County CDA, will present the findings of the 2024 Carver
County Housing Needs Analysis.
BACKGROUND
The Needs Analysis examines current housing market conditions and determines the market potential
for developing different types of owned and rented housing in Carver County to 2040.
DISCUSSION
RECOMMENDATION
As this is a presentation, no formal action is required.
ATTACHMENTS
Carver County Housing Needs Analysis
4
A Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for
Carver County, Minnesota
Prepared for:
Carver County Community Development Agency
Chaska, Minnesota
February 2024
2823 Hamline Avenue North
Roseville, MN 55113
612.338.0012
www.maxfieldresearch.com
5
(main) 612-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979
2823 Hamline Avenue North, Roseville, MN 55113
www.maxfieldresearch.com
February 13, 2024
Ms. Allison Streich
Deputy Director
Carver County Community Development Agency
705 North Walnut Street
Chaska, MN 55318
Ms. Streich:
Attached is the analysis titled, “A Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Carver County,
Minnesota.” The Needs Analysis examines current housing market conditions and determines
the market potential for developing different types of owned and rented housing in the County
to 2040.
The scope of this study includes: an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics
of Carver County and its communities; a review of existing housing stock characteristics; an
analysis of the for-sale housing market; an evaluation of rental market conditions; a senior
housing supply and demand analysis; an assessment of housing affordability in the County, and
an overview of housing needs for homeless and special needs populations. Recommendations
on the number and types of housing products that should be considered in each submarket are
also provided.
Please contact us if you have questions or require additional information.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
Joe Hollman Mary C. Bujold
Senior Associate President
Attachment
6
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 1
PURPOSE AND SCOPE ................................................................................................. 13
DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW ............................................................................................. 14
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 14
Submarket Definitions ................................................................................................... 15
Population and Household Growth Trends ................................................................... 18
Population Age Distribution ........................................................................................... 23
Household Income ......................................................................................................... 29
Net Worth ...................................................................................................................... 35
Household Tenure by Income ........................................................................................ 38
Household Tenure by Age .............................................................................................. 42
Tenure by Household Size .............................................................................................. 49
Household Type ............................................................................................................. 55
Race and Ethnicity .......................................................................................................... 59
Resident Mobility ........................................................................................................... 64
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ............................................................................................... 68
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 68
Resident Employment .................................................................................................... 69
Commuting Patterns ...................................................................................................... 72
Employment Growth Trends .......................................................................................... 83
Industry Employment and Wage Data ........................................................................... 87
Major Employers ............................................................................................................ 93
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ....................................................................................... 96
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 96
Housing Unit Occupancy ................................................................................................ 97
Housing Stock by Structure Type ................................................................................... 103
Tenure by Structure Type .............................................................................................. 105
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value ...................................................................... 108
Renter-Occupied Units by Contract Rent ...................................................................... 112
Age of Housing Stock ..................................................................................................... 115
Residential Building Permit Trends ................................................................................ 118
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS ...................................................................................... 124
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 124
Home Resale Trends ...................................................................................................... 125
Active Listings ................................................................................................................. 134
Residential Subdivisions ................................................................................................. 141
New Construction Home Pricing .................................................................................... 155
Pending Residential Subdivisions ................................................................................... 158
7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS......................................................................................... 160
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 160
Overview of Rental Market Conditions ......................................................................... 161
General Occupancy Rental Housing Properties ............................................................. 166
Pending Rental Housing Developments ........................................................................ 186
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 188
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 188
Senior Housing Defined ................................................................................................. 189
Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends ............................................ 191
Supply of Senior Housing ............................................................................................... 198
Pending Senior Housing Developments ......................................................................... 217
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY .......................................................................................... 218
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 218
Housing Choice Vouchers .............................................................................................. 219
Rent and Income Limits ................................................................................................. 221
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing ........................................................................ 223
Housing Cost Burden...................................................................................................... 224
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income ..................................................... 228
HOMELESS AND SPECIAL NEEDS .................................................................................. 232
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 232
Demographic Statistics on Homeless Populations ........................................................ 235
Point-in-Time Results for Minnesota (2023) ................................................................. 238
Coordinated Entry System ............................................................................................. 238
Carver County – Service Characteristics of the Homeless ............................................. 240
Carver County – Demographic Statistics – Households in Coordinated Entry .............. 241
Key Findings Regarding Homeless and Homeless Families ........................................... 241
Carver County Shelter and Long-Term Homeless Units ................................................ 243
DEMAND ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 248
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 248
Interview Summary ........................................................................................................ 249
General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis .................................. 253
General Occupancy Rental Housing Demand Analysis .................................................. 258
Senior Housing Demand Analysis .................................................................................. 262
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................. 287
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 287
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand .................................................................. 288
Housing Demand Summary ........................................................................................... 291
Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 302
Challenges and Opportunities ....................................................................................... 311
APPENDIX ............................................................................................................ 321
8
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
Table 1 Population Growth Trends and Projections ............................................................... 19
Table 2 Household Growth Trends and Projections ................................................................ 20
Table 3 Population Age Distribution ........................................................................................ 23
Table 4 Population Age Distribution, Carver County Submarkets .......................................... 25
Table 5 Household Income by Age of Householder ................................................................ 30
Table 6 Median Household Income by Age of Householder, Carver County Market Area .... 31
Table 7 2023 Estimated Net Worth by Age of Householder ................................................... 36
Table 8 Net Worth by Age of Householder, Carver County Submarkets ................................ 37
Table 9 Tenure by Household Income ..................................................................................... 39
Table 10 Tenure by Age of Householder ................................................................................... 43
Table 11 Tenure by Age of Householder, Carver County Submarkets ...................................... 45
Table 12 Tenure by Household Size ........................................................................................... 50
Table 13 Household Type .......................................................................................................... 56
Table 14 Population Distribution by Race & Ethnicity .............................................................. 60
Table 15 Resident Mobility in Past Year by Age Group ............................................................. 65
Table 16 Labor Force and Resident Employment Trends .......................................................... 69
Table 17 Commuting Inflow/Outflow Characteristics, Carver County Submarkets .................. 73
Table 18 Commuting Patterns, Carver County .......................................................................... 78
Table 19 Commuting Patterns, Carver County Submarkets ...................................................... 79
Table 20 Employment Growth Trends and Projections ............................................................ 84
Table 21 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Carver County ................................... 87
Table 22 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Carver County by Submarket ........... 89
Table 23 Major Employers by City ............................................................................................. 94
Table 24 Housing Unit Occupancy ............................................................................................. 98
Table 25 Housing Units by Structure Type .............................................................................. 104
Table 26 Housing Unit Structure Type by Tenure ................................................................... 106
Table 27 Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value ................................................................. 109
Table 28 Renter-Occupied Housing Units by Contract Rent ................................................... 113
Table 29 Housing Units by Year Structure Built....................................................................... 116
Table 30 Residential Building Permit Trends, Carver County by Submarket ......................... 119
Table 31 Residential Resales .................................................................................................... 125
Table 32 Residential Resales, Carver County Submarkets ...................................................... 128
Table 33 Residential Resale Price Distribution, Carver County ............................................... 132
Table 34 Active Listings ............................................................................................................ 134
Table 35 Active Listings by Price of Home ............................................................................... 137
Table 36 Active Listing Summary by Submarket ..................................................................... 138
Table 37 Months Supply .......................................................................................................... 140
Table 38 Lot Supply Summary ................................................................................................. 147
Table 39 Summary of Actively Marketing Detached Subdivisions .......................................... 148
Table 40 Summary of Actively Marketing Multifamily Subdivisions ....................................... 149
Table 41 New Construction Housing Activity Statistics ........................................................... 150
Table 42 Active Detached Single-Family Subdivisions by Submarket ..................................... 151
Table 43 Active Multifamily Subdivisions by Submarket......................................................... 154
9
Table 44 New Construction Home Sales by County Subdivision ............................................. 156
Table 45 Pending Residential Subdivisions .............................................................................. 158
Table 46 Rental Housing Market Trends ................................................................................. 160
Table 47 Unit Type Summary, Select Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Properties .... 168
Table 48 Unit Type Summary, Select Affordable/Subsidized General Occupancy Rental
Properties .................................................................................................................. 171
Table 49 Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Properties ................................................. 174
Table 50 Affordable/Subsidized General Occupancy Rental Properties ................................. 181
Table 51 Pending General Occupancy Rental Developments ................................................. 187
Table 52 Unit Type Summary, Select Market Rate Active Adult Rental Properties ................ 201
Table 53 Unit Type Summary, Select Affordable/Subsidized Senior Rental Properties ......... 203
Table 54 Pricing Summary by Unit Type and Service Level, Service-Enhanced Senior
Housing Facilities ...................................................................................................... 204
Table 55 Market Rate Active Adult Properties ........................................................................ 207
Table 56 Affordable/Subsidized Senior Rental Properties ...................................................... 210
Table 57 Service-Enhanced Senior Housing Properties ........................................................... 213
Table 58 Rent Payment Standards .......................................................................................... 221
Table 59 2023 Income Limits ................................................................................................... 222
Table 60 Maximum Rent Based on Household Size and Area Median Income ...................... 222
Table 61 Housing Cost Burden................................................................................................. 225
Table 62 Housing Affordability – Based on Household Income .............................................. 229
Table 63 Number of Homeless People .................................................................................... 235
Table 64 Race/Ethnicity of the Homeless ................................................................................ 236
Table 65 Gender of the Homeless Population......................................................................... 237
Table 66 Age of the Homeless Population .............................................................................. 237
Table 67 Veteran & Non Veteran Demographics .................................................................... 239
Table 68 Demographic Characteristics of Clients Served/Housed, Coordinated Entry
System ....................................................................................................................... 241
Table 69 Existing Rental Developments for Long-Term Homeless/Permanent Supportive
Housing ..................................................................................................................... 245
Table 70 General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Demand ........................................................ 254
Table 71 General Occupancy Rental Housing Demand ........................................................... 259
Table 72 Excess Senior Housing Demand by Service Level, Carver County ............................ 263
Table 73 Excess Senior Housing Demand by Service Level, Carver County by Submarket ..... 264
Table 74 Market Rate Active Adult Housing Demand ............................................................. 266
Table 75 Affordable/Subsidized Senior Rental Housing Demand ........................................... 270
Table 76 Independent Living Demand ..................................................................................... 274
Table 77 Market Rate Assisted Living Demand ....................................................................... 278
Table 78 Memory Care Demand .............................................................................................. 284
Table 79 Housing Demand Summary, Carver County ............................................................. 291
Table 80 General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Pricing Recommendations ............................ 303
Table 81 General Occupancy Rental Housing Recommendations .......................................... 305
Table 82 Senior Housing Development Recommendations .................................................... 308
10
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 1
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC was engaged by the Carver County Community Develop-
ment Agency (CDA) to prepare a Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for the County. The
analysis provides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that may be devel-
oped to meet the needs of current and future households residing in the County. For the pur-
pose of this housing needs analysis, Carver County was divided into nine submarkets, each of
which is comprised of county subdivisions (cities and townships).
The scope of this study includes an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics of
Carver County and its submarkets, a review of existing housing stock characteristics, and mar-
ket analyses covering the for-sale, rental, and senior housing markets. Additionally, the study
includes an assessment of housing affordability in the County and an overview of housing needs
for homeless and special needs populations. Detailed demand calculations and development
concept recommendations are provided for Carver County and its submarkets. The study con-
cludes with an evaluation of challenges and opportunities associated with housing develop-
ment in the County.
Demographic Analysis
• Between 2010 and 2023, Carver County experienced an estimated 25% population growth,
adding 22,496 people, compared to 13% growth in the Metro Area.
• The largest population growth in the County occurred in the Chaska and Victoria Submar-
kets, adding 4,933 people (21% growth) and 4,283 people (45%), respectively. Population
growth occurred among all the submarkets, but growth was generally strongest in the com-
munities located along the major transportation corridors (i.e. Highways 5 and 212) in the
eastern portion of the County.
• Carver County is projected to add another 19,172 people (17% growth) and 7,908 house-
holds (19% growth) between 2023 and 2030, outpacing Metro Area growth (7% population
and household growth). We anticipate that Carver County will contain 156,439 people and
58,536 households by 2040, adding 23,729 people (18% growth) and 9,445 households
(19% growth) between 2030 and 2040.
• The Chaska Submarket is projected to experience the largest increase in households be-
tween 2010 and 2040 (5,436), followed by the Chanhassen (5,150) and Waconia (4,580)
Submarkets.
• Growth is projected among all age groups in Carver County between 2023 and 2030, includ-
ing 22% growth in 25 to 34 age group (3,076 people) and 17% growth in the 35 to 44 age
group (2,851 people). The 75 and older age group is projected to experience the fastest
growth, increasing 52% (2,661 people) in Carver County and 33% in the Metro Area.
11
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 2
• In 2023, Carver County’s median household income is at $106,058, 18% higher than $89,780
in the Metro Area. Within the County, median household incomes are estimated to be
highest in the Victoria ($159,163), Chanhassen ($124,829), and Carver ($110,718) submar-
kets and lowest in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America ($70,739) and Mayer-New Ger-
many ($88,135) submarkets.
• Typically, as income increases, so does the rate of homeownership. This can be seen in
Carver County, where the homeownership rate increases from 54% of households with in-
comes below $15,000 to 97% of households with incomes above $150,000. In contrast,
46% of all households with incomes below $150,000 are renters while just 3% of all house-
holds with incomes of $150,000 or more are renters.
• In Carver County, an estimated 82% of all households own in 2023, giving it a homeowner-
ship rate that is notably higher than the Metro Area (69% of households own). The total
number of owner households residing in Carver County expanded by an estimated 6,938
households between 2010 and 2023 (26% growth), outpacing the increase in renter house-
holds (1,354 households, 22% growth).
• Homeownership rates are highest in the Victoria (92.0%), Mayer-New Germany (92.0%), Co-
logne (90.9%), and Watertown (90.7%) Submarkets, and lowest in the Chaska (69.0%), Ham-
burg-Norwood Young America (75.3%), and Waconia (81.0%) Submarkets.
• In Carver County, married couple without children households are the most common
household type in 2023 (32.3% of all households), followed closely by married couple s with
children (30.7%). The number of family households in the County increased 26% between
2010 and 2023 (6,222 households), compared to 12% growth in the Metro Area. Nonfamily
households increased 24% in the County (2,070 households) and 15% in the Metro Area
• The majority of residents in the County (91%) did not change residences within a one-year
time period of the latest ACS Survey, while 9% moved. Resident mobility was greatest in
the Victoria (12% moved in past year) and Mayer-New Germany (10%) Submarkets and low-
est in the Carver (6%) and Hamburg-Norwood Young America (7%) Submarkets.
Employment Analysis
• In 2022, Carver County had an annual labor force of 59,251 with 57,973 employed resi-
dents, which equates to a 2.2% unemployment rate. By comparison, Metro Area unemploy-
ment was at 2.5%.
• The County’s labor force increased at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2010 through
2019 before flattening to 0.7% in 2020 and declining -3.2% in 2021. Resident employment
experienced 2.1% average annual growth from 2010 through 2021, before declining -1.8%
in 2020 and -0.9% in 2021. Labor force and resident employment contraction in 2020 and
2021 was related to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recession.
12
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 3
• Both labor force and resident employment are recovering, as the labor force increased 2.0%
during 2022 in Carver County against a 2.9% increase in resident employment.
• Overall, Carver County is an exporter of workers as a higher number of residents leave the
County for work than nonresidents commute into the County. Approximately 21,969 work-
ers come into the County for employment daily, while 40,112 resident workers commute
out of the County. An estimated 12,433 people both live and work in the County.
• With 21,969 workers commuting into Carver County for employment daily, including 1,642
workers that commute from over 50 miles, there appears to be an opportunity to provide
housing options for a portion of these workers. Chanhassen experiences the largest inflow,
importing 20,584 workers, followed by the Chaska (inflow of 9,465 workers) and Waconia
(imports 3,932 workers) Submarkets.
• Current data indicates that employment is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, as the
number of jobs in the County increased 10.8% (4,061 jobs) between 2020 and the second
quarter of 2023.
• Continued job growth is anticipated between 2023 and 2030, as employment in Carver
County is projected to expand to 46,121 jobs in 2030, an 11% increase from the second
quarter of 2023 with the addition of 4,476 jobs. The County is projected to add anothe r
6,187 jobs (13.4% growth) between 2030 and 2040.
• With 10,663 new jobs projected for Carver County by 2040, additional housing will be
needed to support a portion of the anticipated job growth in the County. Chanhassen is ex-
pected to experience the largest job growth, adding 4,374 jobs between the second quarter
of 2023 and 2040 (30% increase), followed by the Chaska (3,763 jobs, 30% growth) and Wa-
conia (2,810 jobs, 39% growth) Submarkets.
• A household earning the average weekly wage in Carver County ($1,267) would be able to
afford an apartment renting for approximately $1,647 per month to not exceed 30% of its
monthly income on housing costs, notably higher than the average rent for a one -bedroom
units at existing market rate rental properties in the County ($1,400).
• Assuming that a potential home buyer has good credit and makes a 10% down payment, a
household earning the average weekly wage in the County would be able to afford to pur-
chase a home priced at approximately $194,900 or lower to not be cost-burdened (paying
more than 30% of their income for housing). By comparison, the median resale price for de-
tached single-family homes in Carver County in 2023 is $489,900.
• The data indicates that an individual working in Carver County and earning the average
wage would likely be able to afford to rent an apartment, but an individual earning the av-
erage wage would not be able to afford to purchase a detached single-family home at the
median sale price.
13
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 4
Housing Characteristics
• As of the 2021 American Community Survey, there were an estimated 39,185 housing units
in Carver County. Chaska contains the largest number of housing units with 10,552 (27% of
the total), followed closely by Chanhassen with 9,894 units (25%).
• Approximately 96.0% of all housing units in the County were occupied, ranging from a low
of 92.9% in the Watertown Submarket to 98.0% in the Chaska Submarket.
• Among the nine Carver County submarkets, Mayer-New Germany and Cologne had the
highest proportions of owner-occupied housing, at 88.6% and 88.0% respectively, while the
Chaska and Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarkets had the highest proportions of
renter-occupied housing units at 28.9% and 22.5%, respectively.
• Median home values are generally highest in the eastern portion of Carver County, notably
in the Victoria ($470,092), Chanhassen ($426,200), and Carver ($360,910) Submarkets. The
northern and western county subdivisions have the lowest median home values, including
the Hamburg-Norwood Young America ($241,733), Watertown ($273,615), and Mayer-New
Germany ($293,867) Submarkets.
• The median contract rent in Carver County was $1,164 during the 2017-2021 ACS period,
roughly 2% higher than the Twin Cities Metro Area ($1,142). The Victoria and Chanhassen
Submarkets have the highest median monthly contract rent, at $1,647 and $1,390, respec-
tively, while the lowest median contract rents are found in the Cologne ($519) and Water-
town ($766) Submarkets.
• The housing stock in Carver County is relatively new when compared to the Metro Area.
Over 58% of the County’s housing inventory has been constructed since 1990, compared to
32% in the Metro Area. Generally, county subdivisions on the east side of Carver County
have newer housing stocks than the communities in the western portion of the County.
• A total of 9,571 residential housing units were permitted in Carver County between 2010
and 2022, averaging 736 new units per year. The type of product being built in the County
has shifted slightly, with more multifamily units being developed in recent years.
• From 2010 through 2014, nearly three-quarters (73%) of the permitted units were detached
single-family, while 19% were townhome units, and 8% were multifamily units. Multifamily
activity has increased to 23% of all units since 2015, while detached single-family and town-
home units declined to 65% and 12% of all permitted units, respectively.
• Residential development activity varies greatly between submarkets, with the communities
in the eastern portion of the County generally experiencing more building activity than in
the western portion. On an average annual basis, housing unit construction ranges from as
high as 164 units per year in Chaska to 15 new units per year in the Cologne Submarket.
14
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 5
For-Sale Housing Market Analysis
• In Carver County, 73% of all resales since 2017 have been detached single-family homes,
while 27% were resales of multifamily (i.e. townhomes, twin homes, condominium) units.
• Due, in part to rising mortgage rates and reduced supply, sales activity in the County de-
clined in 2022 and 2023. Increasing competition for homes in the Market Area (as indicated
by the decreasing supply of available housing and shortened marketing times ) has caused
strong sale price appreciation in recent years.
• In Carver County the median resale price for detached single-family homes increased 40%,
climbing from $349,900 in 2017 to $489,900 in 2023, averaging 5.9% increases annually.
The median resale price for multifamily units jumped 59% (8.1% average annual increases),
from $194,900 in 2017 to $310,000 in 2023.
• By comparison, the 2023 median sale price for new construction homes is $577,495 for de-
tached single-family homes and $363,740 for multifamily units.
• The pace of resales in the County ranges from highs of 37.5 per month in Chanhassen and
34.4 resales per month in Chaska to lows of 3.5 and 4.5 resales per month in the Cologne
and Mayer-New Germany Submarkets, respectively.
• As of 2023, median resale prices for detached single-family homes are highest in the
Chanhassen ($644,500) and Victoria ($636,000) Submarkets. The Cologne Submarket expe-
rienced the largest price appreciation (64% increase between 2017 and 2023 ).
• Median resale prices for multifamily units are highest in the Victoria ($405,000) and Carver
($331,000) Submarkets, with the largest increase occurring in the Watertown Submarket
(72% increase since 2017).
• As of the end of October 2023, there was a 2.8-month supply of detached single-family
homes and a 1.4-month supply of multifamily units available for sale on the market in
Carver County. Equilibrium in the for-sale housing market is generally considered to be a
six-month supply of homes on the market. As such, it appears that the current inventory of
available for-sale housing in the County is well below equilibrium.
• The supply of detached single-family homes ranges from 1.6-months in Chanhassen to 6.7-
months in the Cologne Submarket. The supply of available multifamily units ranges from no
supply available in the Cologne Submarket to 2.1 months in the Victoria Submarket.
• There are 72 active subdivisions in the County, containing a total of 7,182 lots. We identi-
fied 1,154 vacant developed lots and 5,043 future lots in the County. Additionally, we iden-
tified 661 pending (concept) residential lots in the County.
15
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 6
Rental Housing Market Analysis
• Maxfield Research compiled detailed information for general occupancy rental housing
properties in the County, including 34 general occupancy market rate properties and 21 af-
fordable and subsidized general occupancy rental projects.
- These properties represent 2,266 general occupancy market rate rental housing units
and 944 affordable or subsidized units.
• The competitive set of stabilized general occupancy market rate properties in the County is
currently 2.2% vacant, well-below equilibrium (7.0% vacancy). Additionally, affordable and
subsidized rental properties are 5.6% vacant in the County, with many properties maintain-
ing lengthy prospect lists. These tight market conditions suggest pent-up demand for new
general occupancy rental housing units in Carver County.
• The average rental rate across all market rate general occupancy properties is $1,521 per
month with a range of $837 for a studio unit in Waconia to a high of $3,235 for a three -bed-
room unit in Chanhassen.
• On a per square-foot basis (psf), these market rate rental properties have an average rent of
$1.61 psf. With an average rent of $2.08 psf ($1,794 per month), the newest properties
(built in 2018 or earlier) are priced 29% higher, on average, than the market average of
$1.61 psf.
• Maxfield Research identified 14 pending rental housing developments in the County, con-
taining a total of 2,221 new rental units under construction, approved, or proposed. Six
projects, totaling 695 units are under construction and two other projects, totaling 320
units, have been approved. Approximately 1,206 units in six projects have been proposed
and are in various stages of a planning approval process.
• Ten of the pending developments are market rate (1,448 units) and there are two afforda-
ble projects, totaling 76 units. There are also two preliminary projects, totaling 697 units,
where the mix of market rate or affordable units is not known at this time .
Senior Housing Market Analysis
• Maxfield Research identified 33 senior housing facilities in Carver County, containing a total
of 2,218 units. The Chaska Submarket contains the largest share of the County’s senior
housing market with 737 units (33% of the County’s total inventory), followed by the
Chanhassen Submarket with 565 units (25%) and the Waconia Submarket (461 units, 21%).
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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• The County’s senior housing inventory includes two market rate active adult ownership pro-
jects, seven market rate active adult rental properties, ten affordable or subsidized active
adult properties, and 14 facilities offering service-enhanced senior housing. Among the ser-
vice-enhanced facilities, six properties offer independent living, 13 provide assisted living,
and 11 facilities provide memory care units.
• Roughly 22% of the senior housing inventory is comprised of assisted living units (490),
while 21% of the units are market rate active adult rental units (474) and another 21% are
affordable or subsidized active adult units (468). Roughly 16% of the senior housing units
are independent living (358), while memory care represents 11% of the inventory (236
units). Market rate active adult ownership units represent 9% of the County’s senior hous-
ing inventory with 192 units.
• There are 20 vacant units in the competitive set of stabilized market rate rental properties
representing a 4.8% vacancy rate, slightly below equilibrium (5.0% vacancy). Among the af-
fordable and subsidized properties, there are 23 vacancies (4.9% vacancy rate).
• There were also 87 vacant service-enhanced units at the time of our survey, representing a
7.9% vacancy rate. There were 19 independent living vacancies, representing a 5.2% va-
cancy rate, approximately at equilibrium. At 12.1% vacant (60 vacancies), the assisted living
facilities are operating at vacancy rates that are above equilibrium. Feedback from senior
housing marketing directors indicates that, while still slightly high, assisted living vacancies
are gradually recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. There were eight vacant memory
care units (3.4% vacancy rate), which is well-below equilibrium.
Housing Affordability
• An estimated 17.6% of owner households (5,565 households) are estimated to be cost bur-
dened (paying more than 30% of their income for housing) in Carver County, slightly lower
than 18.0% in the Metro Area. Roughly 40.7% of all renter households (2,693) in the County
are cost burdened compared to 44.9% in the Metro Area. The percent of all households
considered cost burdened ranges from 10.4% in the Victoria Submarket to 28.3% in the Wa-
conia Submarket.
• An estimated 64% of existing owner households could afford to buy a moderately priced en-
try-level detached single-family home ($300,000) in the County. The proportion of income-
qualified households declines as the sale price increases, and roughly 36% of existing owner
households could afford to purchase a move-up detached single-family home priced at
$500,000. The proportion declines to 20% of existing households that could afford a home
priced at $750,000.
• An estimated 50% of existing renter households can afford to rent a one -bedroom unit in
the County at the average quoted rate of $1,400 per month. The proportion declines to
42% that could afford a new construction one-bedroom unit priced at $1,600 per month.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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• Housing affordability varies by submarket in Carver County, as the percent of existing owner
households that can afford a move-up home ranges from 14% in the Hamburg-Norwood
Young America Submarket to 56% in the Victoria Submarket. The proportion of rente r
households able to afford a new construction one-bedroom unit ranges from 29% in the
Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket to 65% in the Carver Submarket.
Homeless and Special Needs
• As of mid-April 2023, there were 133 households in Scott and Carver County who had been
assessed in the Coordinated Entry System (CES), 21 of which were age 55 years or older. To
be assessed for the CES, a person must be in a shelter for 14 days or in a p lace not meant
for human habitation.
• A majority of the Carver County households in CES are White alone, female, adults, singles,
and have a disability. In addition, 25% are chronically homeless and 3% are Veterans.
• There is limited emergency and transitional housing available in Carver and Scott Counties
as of 2023. There are currently four family shelter units (average of 12 beds) that were
available until December 2023. There are another four additional units (two beds each for a
total of 8 beds) which can be utilized for either families or singles through an OEO ESP Grant
plus weather vouchers which are inconsistent, but can serve up to 40 households annually,
most during the winter months.
Housing Demand Analysis and Recommendations
• Anecdotal feedback from interviews with local real estate professionals and major employ-
ers suggests that there is a limited inventory of existing homes available, and much of what
is available is higher-end new construction. While all housing product types are in demand,
there is a particular lack of inventory for first -time homebuyers as well as empty nesters
who want to move out of their single-family home. Housing affordability is a major issue, as
many potential buyers can’t afford the housing that’s available, especially new construction.
• Highway expansion projects (Highways 212 and 5) will stimulate demand for new housing in
the western half of the County, particularly Cologne and Norwood Young America. Some of
communities in Carver County have a limited supply of developable land which could re-
strain growth, require annexation, or allow increased residential development density.
• It was stated that the greatest housing need in the County is housing for moderate in-
come buyers and renters, notably entry-level housing to attract young families. There is
also a need for more housing targeted to seniors that want to move out of their single-fam-
ily homes, which could increase the availability of some older, more affordably priced hous-
ing.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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• The following figure summarizes our housing demand calculations for Carver County from
2023 to 2040.
• As shown, we find demand for 25,532 general occupancy housing units in the County be-
tween 2023 and 2040, including 20,402 for-sale units and 5,130 rental housing units.
• We identified 1,050 vacant developed detached single-family lots and 4,255 future de-
tached single-family lots in Carver County, along with 104 vacant developed multifamily lots
and 788 future multifamily lots. Additionally, we identified 595 detached single-family and
66 multifamily lots pending (concept) in the County.
• Based on the general occupancy for-sale housing demand calculations (16,208 detached sin-
gle-family units and 4,194 multifamily units needed by 2040), there is an approximately 5.6 -
year supply of detached single-family lots and a 3.6-year supply of multifamily lots in Carver
County. However, the supply of development-ready (vacant developed lots) is much
smaller, at a 1.1-year supply of detached single-family and a 0.4-year supply of multifamily
vacant developed lots.
For-Sale Units
Detached Single-Family Units
Multifamily Units*
General Occupancy Rental Units
Market Rate
Affordable^
Subsidized^
Total General Occupancy Housing Units
2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult 938 1,347 1,384
Owner-Occupied 413 549 568
Renter-Occupied 525 798 816
Affordable & Subsidized Senior Housing 1,605 2,401 2,315
Subsidized^605 834 795
Affordable^1,000 1,567 1,520
Service-Enhanced Senior Housing 714 1,259 2,463
Independent Living (IL)447 719 928
Assisted Living (AL)105 255 902
Memory Care (MC)162 285 633
Total Senior Housing Units 3,257 5,007 6,162
*Includes twin homes, townhomes, condominiums
^Affordable = affordable to households at 30% to 60% AMI
^Subsidized = affordable to households at 30% AMI or less
20,402
16,208
4,194
25,532
Senior Housing Demand
5,130
2,264
1,268
1,598
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 to 2040
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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• The supply of vacant and future lots is sufficient to satisfy short-term demand, but addi-
tional lots will be needed by 2030.
• We also estimate that there is excess demand for 3,257 senior housing units in Carver
County in 2023. Rapid growth projected for the older adult and senior population in the
County will cause excess demand to increase to 5,007 units in 2030 and 6,162 units in 2040.
• The following figures summarize key demand findings by submarket in Carver County along
with recommended price points and development concepts for various product types. De-
tailed findings are described in the Conclusions & Recommendations section of this report.
General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Demand by Submarket and Price Point
2023 - 2040
Purchase Price 1 Pct.
Detached Single-Family Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
Hamburg-
NYA
Entry-level Less than $350,000 25%510 844 760 196 215
Move-up $450,000-$550,000 60%1,223 2,026 1,823 470 517
Executive $750,000+15%306 506 456 118 129
Submarket Total:100%2,039 3,376 3,039 784 861
Mayer-New
Germany Victoria Waconia Watertown
Entry-level 202 292 841 193
Move-up 485 700 2,019 462
Executive 121 175 505 116
Submarket Total:809 1,167 3,365 770
Multifamily (i.e. townhomes, twin homes)Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
Hamburg-
NYA
Entry-level Less than $300,000 30%68 253 228 26 172
Move-up $400,000-$500,000 60%136 506 456 52 344
Executive $600,000+10%23 84 76 9 57
Submarket Total:100%227 844 760 87 574
Mayer-New
Germany Victoria Waconia Watertown
Entry-level 43 117 252 99
Move-up 86 233 505 198
Executive 14 39 84 33
Submarket Total:143 389 841 330
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding
¹ Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
---------- Submarkets ----------
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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General Occupancy Rental Housing Demand by Submarket and Product Type
2023 - 2040
Affordable^
Apartments Townhomes Apartments Townhomes
Apts or
Townhomes
Recommended
Rent by Unit Type
$1,450/studio -
$2,700/3BR
$2,400/2BR -
$3,100/3BR
$1,200/studio -
$1,600/2BR
$1,900/2BR -
$2,300/3BR
Moderate
Income
Affordable^
Submarket Apartments Townhomes Apartments Townhomes
Apts or
Townhomes
Carver 144 36 59 15 39
Chanhassen 266 67 256 64 152
Chaska 370 92 217 54 598
Cologne 9 2 19 5 18
Hamburg-NYA 100 25 35 9 120
Mayer-NG 21 5 11 3 29
Victoria~--------40
Waconia 149 37 174 44 228
Watertown 48 12 26 6 45
*Workforce housing targets households at 80% to 120% AMI
^Subject to income guidelines per HUD & MN Housing at 50%-60% AMI
~The amount of new product pending exceeds the demand potential in the Victoria Submarket
Note - The number of units by submarket and product type reflects excess demand from 2023 to 2040,
not the size of a property that could be supported in a single development.
Workforce*
Market Rate Workforce*
---------- Monthly Rent Range by Product Type ----------
---------- Estimated Demand ('23 - '40) by Submarket and Product Type ----------
Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Market Rate
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Senior Housing Demand by Submarket and Service Level
2030
Market Rate Affordable^
Rental
Apartments
Rental
Apartments
Independent
Living*
Assisted
Living*
Memory
Care
Recommended
Rent/Fees
$1,500/1BR -
$2,500/2BR
Moderate
Income
$2,300/studio -
$4,300/2BR
$3,800/studio -
$5,200/2BR
$5,500 -
$6,000/studio
Market Rate Affordable^
Submarket
Rental
Apartments
Rental
Apartments
Independent
Living*
Assisted
Living*
Memory
Care
Carver 81 124 52 14 24
Chanhassen 241 374 179 99 65
Chaska 112 407 122 34 41
Cologne 33 46 27 8 13
Hamburg-NYA~26 113 48 --10
Mayer-NG 44 76 37 13 17
Victoria 104 143 127 51 62
Waconia 90 235 73 39 32
Watertown 66 50 53 7 23
^Subject to income guidelines per HUD & MN Housing at 50%-60% AMI
*Catered living recommended which allows residents to receive AL services without switching units
~Existing and pending AL product exceeds the demand potential in the Hamburg-NYA Submarket
---------- Estimated Demand (2030) by Submarket and Service Level ----------
Service-Enhanced
Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Note - The number of units by submarket and service level reflects excess demand in 2030, not the
size of a property that could be supported in a single development.
Additional demand for owned active adult units and subsidized senior housing units.
Service-Enhanced
---------- Monthly Rents/Fees by Service Level ----------
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS PURPOSE AND SCOPE
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 13
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC was engaged by the Carver County Community Develop-
ment Agency (CDA) to prepare a Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for the County. The
analysis provides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that may be devel-
oped to meet the needs of current and future households residing in the County.
The scope of this study includes an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics of
Carver County and its submarkets, a review of existing housing stock characteristics, and mar-
ket analyses covering the for-sale, rental, and senior housing markets. Additionally, the study
includes an assessment of housing affordability in the County and an overview of housing needs
for homeless and special needs populations.
Detailed demand calculations and development concept recommendations are provided for
Carver County and its submarkets. The study concludes with an evaluation of challenges and
opportunities associated with housing development in the County.
Methodology
This report includes both primary and secondary research. Primary research includes personal
interviews, data on existing rental properties, and information on pending developments. Sec-
ondary research, which is credited to the source when used, is always used as a basis for analy-
sis and is carefully considered along with other factors that may impact projections. Data re-
sources include:
- Carver County CDA and the Cities located in the County
- Phone calls and/or emails with rental property leasing agents, senior housing marketing
directors, Realtors, employers, and other stakeholders.
- ESRI
- Metropolitan Council
- Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors
- Minnesota 2022 PIT Counts
- Minnesota Continuum of Care
- Minnesota Homeless Management Information System (HMIS)
- Minnesota State Demographic Center
- Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)
- Rental property marketing services (i.e. CoStar, apartments.com, rentcafe’)
- United States Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey, and Local
Employment Dynamics
- United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
- Wilder Research
- Zonda
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Demographic Review
Introduction
Demographic characteristics and trends are important factors when evaluating housing needs
in any given market. This section of the report reviews the demographic and economic charac-
teristics of Carver County to provide insight into demand for various housing product types in
the County. The following topics are evaluated.
Population and household growth trends and projections
Age distribution of the population
Household income distribution by age group
Net worth of area households
Household tenure by income and age group
Average household sizes
Household types
Race and ethnicity
Household mobility
Data sources utilized for this analysis include the U.S Census Bureau Decennial Census and
American Community Survey (“ACS”), along with ESRI, a nationally recognized demographic ser-
vices firm, and the Metropolitan Council, the regional planning organization for the seven -
county Metro Area.
The ACS is an ongoing statistical survey that gathers data previously contained only in the long
form of the Decennial Census to provide an ongoing portrait of demographic, economic, social,
and household characteristics every year, not just every ten years. Maxfield Research and Con-
sulting, LLC utilizes five-year data estimates, which provide a larger sample size and have a
longer data collection period than the one-year data estimates. At the time this analysis was
prepared, the 2017-2021 ACS was the most recent five-year data available.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Submarket Definitions
Based on a review of geographic and man-made boundaries, commuting patterns, and commu-
nity orientation, Carver County was divided into nine submarkets for the purpose of this hous-
ing needs analysis. Each submarket is comprised of county subdivisions (cities and townships)
as summarized below. With the exception of the portion of Chanhassen located in Hennepin
County, all county subdivisions are located in Carver County, Minnesota.
• Carver Submarket: Carver city, Dahlgren township, San Francisco township
• Chanhassen Submarket: Chanhassen city (Carver County), Chanhassen city (Hennepin
County)
• Chaska Submarket: Chaska city
• Cologne Submarket: Cologne city, Benton township, Hancock township
• Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket: Hamburg city, Norwood Young Amer-
ica city, Young America township
• Mayer – New Germany Submarket: Mayer city, New Germany city, Camden township,
Hollywood township
• Victoria Submarket: Victoria city, Laketown township
• Waconia Submarket: Waconia city, Waconia township
• Watertown Submarket: Watertown city, Watertown township
Housing demand in the County will be generated by household growth and turnover of existing
households in these submarkets. A portion of the housing demand, however, will be generated
from outside the area, so demographic and economic comparisons are made to the seven -
county Twin Cities Metro Area which includes Carver County, as well as the Counties of Anoka,
Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington.
The following maps illustrate the various submarket boundaries for each community as well as
the location of Carver County in the Twin Cities Metro Area.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Carver County Submarkets
Mayer
Victoria
New Germany
Hamburg
Chaska
Watertown
Cologne
Submarket
Mayer-New Germany
Submarket
Victoria
Submarket
Hamburg –NYA
Submarket
Watertown
Submarket
Carver
Submarket
Cologne
Norwood
Young America
Chanhassen
Carver
WaconiaWaconia
Submarket
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Regional Location
Rock Co.
Carver County
Twin Cities Metro Area
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Population and Household Growth Trends
The tables on the following pages present population and household growth trends in the Mar-
ket Area from 2010 to 2040. The 2010 and 2020 figures are from the U.S. Census. The 2023
household estimates are based on Metropolitan Council growth rate estimates for 2021 and
2022 along with a review of building permit data, while population estimates for 2023 are
based on average household size data. The population and household forecasts for 2028, 2030,
and 2040 were determined by applying the Metropolitan Council’s growth rate projections to
the 2020 Census numbers with adjustments made by Maxfield Research to reflect factors such
as community orientation and development patterns.
• The following graph depicts historical population growth trends in Carver County from 1900
to 2023.
• As shown, the County’s population held fairly steady from 1900 to 1950, then began to ex-
perience strong growth, starting in the 1950s. The most rapid population growth in Carver
County occurred in the 1990s, as the population jumped 47% during the decade from
47,915 in 1990 to 70,205 in 2000.
• The pace of population growth in the County is slowing, achieving 30% growth between
2000 and 2010 and 17% growth from 2010 to 2020. As of the 2020 Census, the County had
a population of 106,922.
• The County’s population and household base increased an estimated 6% between 2020 and
2023 to 113,538 people and 41,183 households.
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000201020202023 estPercent GrowthPopulationCarver County Population Growth
1900 -2023
Pct. Growth Population
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 1
Estimate
Submarket/City 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040 No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver 5,887 7,554 9,445 10,277 10,610 14,100 1,667 28.3%1,891 25.0%1,165 12.3%3,490 32.9%
Carver 3,724 5,241 7,188 8,174 8,569 12,211 1,517 40.7%1,947 37.1%1,381 19.2%3,642 42.5%
Remainder 2,163 2,313 2,257 2,103 2,042 1,889 150 6.9%-56 -2.4%-215 -9.5%-152 -7.5%
Chanhassen 22,952 25,947 26,340 29,530 30,806 36,054 2,995 13.0%393 1.5%4,466 17.0%5,248 17.0%
Chaska 23,770 27,810 28,703 31,657 32,838 37,559 4,040 17.0%893 3.2%4,136 14.4%4,721 14.4%
Cologne 2,650 3,136 3,176 3,738 3,962 4,630 486 18.3%40 1.3%786 24.7%668 16.8%
Cologne 1,519 2,047 2,103 2,648 2,866 3,525 528 34.8%56 2.7%763 36.3%659 23.0%
Remainder 1,131 1,089 1,074 1,090 1,097 1,105 -42 -3.7%-15 -1.4%23 2.1%8 0.8%
Hamburg-NYA 4,777 5,112 5,452 6,812 7,356 8,790 335 7.0%340 6.6%1,904 34.9%1,434 19.5%
Hamburg 513 566 582 602 610 650 53 10.3%16 2.7%29 4.9%40 6.5%
Norwood Young Am.3,549 3,863 4,159 5,526 6,073 7,457 314 8.8%296 7.7%1,913 46.0%1,385 22.8%
Remainder 715 683 711 684 673 683 -32 -4.5%28 4.1%-38 -5.4%10 1.5%
Mayer-New Germany 4,084 4,899 5,160 5,512 5,652 6,298 815 20.0%261 5.3%492 9.5%646 11.4%
Mayer 1,749 2,453 2,625 2,883 2,986 3,496 704 40.3%172 7.0%362 13.8%510 17.1%
New Germany 372 464 487 584 622 738 92 24.7%23 5.0%135 27.7%116 18.6%
Remainder 1,963 1,982 2,049 2,045 2,044 2,064 19 1.0%-4 -0.2%-5 -0.2%21 1.0%
Victoria 9,588 12,512 13,871 14,234 14,380 17,150 2,924 30.5%1,359 10.9%509 3.7%2,770 19.3%
Victoria 7,345 10,546 11,892 13,040 13,500 16,875 3,201 43.6%1,346 12.8%1,608 13.5%3,375 25.0%
Remainder 2,243 1,966 1,979 1,194 880 275 -277 -12.3%13 0.7%-1,099 -55.5%-605 -68.7%
Waconia 11,925 14,101 15,147 18,659 20,064 23,886 2,176 18.2%1,046 7.4%4,917 32.5%3,822 19.0%
Waconia 10,697 13,033 14,088 17,530 18,907 22,688 2,336 21.8%1,055 8.1%4,819 34.2%3,781 20.0%
Remainder 1,228 1,068 1,059 1,129 1,157 1,197 -160 -13.0%-9 -0.8%98 9.2%40 3.5%
Watertown 5,409 5,847 6,245 6,814 7,042 7,972 438 8.1%398 6.8%797 12.8%930 13.2%
Watertown 4,205 4,659 5,031 5,648 5,895 6,846 454 10.8%372 8.0%864 17.2%951 16.1%
Remainder 1,204 1,188 1,213 1,166 1,147 1,127 -16 -1.3%25 2.1%-66 -5.5%-20 -1.8%
Carver County 91,042 106,922 113,538 127,233 132,710 156,439 15,880 17.4%6,616 6.2%19,172 16.9%23,729 17.9%
Twin Cities^2,849,567 3,163,104 3,226,140 3,382,619 3,451,000 3,653,000 313,537 11.0%63,036 2.0%224,860 7.0%202,000 5.9%
Sources: US Census Bureau; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2040
Change
^Seven-county Metro Area (Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington Counties)
2020-2023 2030-20402010-2020 2023-2030CensusForecast
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 2
Estimate
Submarket/City 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040 No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver 1,983 2,497 3,122 3,467 3,605 4,891 514 25.9%625 25.0%483 15.5%1,286 35.7%
Carver 1,182 1,669 2,289 2,695 2,858 4,181 487 41.2%620 37.1%569 24.8%1,323 46.3%
Remainder 801 828 833 772 747 710 27 3.4%5 0.6%-86 -10.3%-37 -4.9%
Chanhassen 8,352 9,644 9,790 10,995 11,476 13,502 1,292 15.5%146 1.5%1,686 17.2%2,025 17.6%
Chaska 8,816 10,438 10,773 11,896 12,345 14,252 1,622 18.4%335 3.2%1,572 14.6%1,907 15.4%
Cologne 963 1,163 1,178 1,423 1,521 1,817 200 20.8%15 1.3%343 29.1%296 19.5%
Cologne 539 734 754 982 1,073 1,361 195 36.2%20 2.7%319 42.4%287 26.8%
Remainder 424 429 424 441 447 457 5 1.2%-5 -1.2%23 5.5%9 2.1%
Hamburg-NYA 1,856 2,031 2,166 2,750 2,984 3,605 175 9.4%135 6.6%818 37.8%621 20.8%
Hamburg 201 219 225 236 240 254 18 9.0%6 2.7%15 6.6%15 6.1%
Norwood Young Am.1,389 1,551 1,670 2,244 2,473 3,060 162 11.7%119 7.7%803 48.1%587 23.7%
Remainder 266 261 271 271 271 290 -5 -1.9%10 3.8%0 -0.1%19 7.1%
Mayer-New Germany 1,451 1,705 1,796 2,001 2,083 2,403 254 17.5%91 5.3%287 16.0%320 15.4%
Mayer 589 800 856 991 1,045 1,280 211 35.8%56 7.0%189 22.1%235 22.4%
New Germany 146 180 189 237 256 313 34 23.3%9 5.0%67 35.3%57 22.2%
Remainder 716 725 751 773 782 810 9 1.3%22 3.0%31 4.1%28 3.6%
Victoria 3,095 4,153 4,604 4,884 4,996 6,057 1,058 34.2%451 10.9%392 8.5%1,061 21.2%
Victoria 2,435 3,542 3,994 4,495 4,696 5,988 1,107 45.5%452 12.8%702 17.6%1,292 27.5%
Remainder 660 611 610 388 300 69 -49 -7.4%-1 -0.2%-310 -50.9%-231 -76.9%
Waconia 4,343 5,055 5,430 6,805 7,355 8,923 712 16.4%375 7.4%1,925 35.4%1,568 21.3%
Waconia 3,909 4,659 5,036 6,369 6,902 8,438 750 19.2%377 8.1%1,866 37.1%1,535 22.2%
Remainder 434 396 394 436 453 485 -38 -8.8%-2 -0.5%59 14.9%32 7.1%
Watertown 2,032 2,176 2,324 2,612 2,727 3,088 144 7.1%148 6.8%403 17.3%361 13.2%
Watertown 1,564 1,714 1,851 2,140 2,255 2,616 150 9.6%137 8.0%404 21.8%361 16.0%
Remainder 468 462 473 472 471 471 -6 -1.3%11 2.4%-2 -0.3%0 0.0%
Carver County 32,891 38,863 41,183 46,832 49,091 58,536 5,972 18.2%2,320 6.0%7,908 19.2%9,445 19.2%
Twin Cities^1,117,749 1,239,526 1,266,716 1,325,439 1,351,000 1,447,000 121,777 10.9%27,190 2.2%84,284 6.7%96,000 7.1%
Sources: US Census Bureau; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2030-2040
^Seven-county Metro Area (Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington Counties)
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2040
Change
Census Forecast 2010-2020 2020-2023 2023-2030
30
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 21
• As depicted in the following graph, with 28,703 people and 10,773 households, Chaska is
the largest submarket in the County, followed by Chanhassen (26,340 people, 9,790 house-
holds), and Waconia (15,147 people, 5,430 households).
• Between 2010 and 2023, Carver County experienced an estimated 25% population growth,
adding 22,496 people, compared to 13% growth in the Metro Area.
- The largest population growth in the County occurred in the Chaska and Victoria Sub-
markets, adding 4,933 people (21% growth) and 4,283 people (45%), respectively.
- On a percentage basis, the Carver Submarket experienced the most rapid population
growth, expanding 60% with the addition of 3,558 people.
- Population growth occurred among all the submarkets, but growth was generally
strongest in the communities located along the major transportation corridors (i.e. High-
ways 5 and 212) in the eastern portion of the County.
• Carver County is projected to add another 19,172 people (17% growth) and 7,908 house-
holds (19% growth) between 2023 and 2030, outpacing Metro Area growth (7% population
and household growth).
• We anticipate that Carver County will contain 156,439 people and 58,536 households by
2040, adding 23,729 people (18% growth) and 9,445 households (19% growth) between
2030 and 2040.
• The following charts depict household growth trends and projections for each of the sub-
markets in Carver County, including numeric growth and percent growth.
9,445
26,340
28,703
3,176
5,452
5,160
13,871
15,147
6,245
3,122
9,790
10,773
1,178
2,166
1,796
4,604
5,430
2,324
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-New Germ.
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
2023 Population and Households
Carver County Submarkets
Population
Households
31
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 22
• The Chaska Submarket is projected to experience the largest increase in households be-
tween 2010 and 2040 (5,436), followed by the Chanhassen (5,150) and Waconia (4,580)
Submarkets.
• On a percentage basis, household growth is projected to be strongest in the Carver (147%
growth), Waconia (105% growth), and Victoria (96%) Submarkets from 2010 to 2040.
• Achieving the projected population and household growth in Carver County will be highly
dependent on the availability of suitable housing options in the area catering to a variety of
household types, age groups, and income levels.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Household Growth Comparison
Numeric Growth -Carver County Submarkets
2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
26%
15%18%21%
9%
18%
34%
16%
7%
44%
19%18%
31%
47%
22%20%
45%
25%
36%
18%15%19%21%
15%
21%21%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Household Growth Comparison
Percent Growth -Carver County Submarkets
2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
32
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Population Age Distribution
The population age distribution of a community helps evaluate the type(s) of housing needed.
For example, younger and older people are generally drawn to higher density housing near ur-
ban services and entertainment while middle-aged people (particularly those with children) tra-
ditionally prefer lower-density single-family homes. The following tables present the age distri-
bution of the population in Carver County, its submarkets, and the Metro Area. Information
from 2010 and 2020 is sourced from the U.S. Census. The 2023 estimates and projections for
2030 were provided by ESRI, with adjustments made by Maxfield Research to reflect current
estimates and projections. The 2040 projections for the County and Metro Area are based on
data provided by the Minnesota State Demographic Center, adjusted by Maxfield Research to
reflect current projections.
TABLE 3
• Generation Z (under age 22) represents the largest share of the population in Carver County
(31% of the total population), followed by Millennials (age 23 to 40) at 24% of the popula-
tion. Generation X (age 41 to 56) represents 22% of the population, while Baby Boomers
(age 57 to 74) represent 19% of the population. The Silent Generation (age 75+) represents
5% of the County’s population.
Estimate
Age 2010 2020 2023 2030 2040 No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver County
Under-20 29,167 31,767 32,266 36,256 40,626 3,099 10.6 3,990 12.4
20 to 24 3,931 5,156 5,965 6,306 7,479 2,033 51.7 342 5.7
25 to 34 10,828 10,972 13,988 17,064 15,406 3,160 29.2 3,076 22.0
35 to 44 14,440 15,423 16,495 19,346 22,221 2,054 14.2 2,851 17.3
45 to 54 15,858 15,027 15,352 16,862 21,097 -505 -3.2 1,509 9.8
55 to 64 9,110 14,923 15,037 16,496 17,780 5,927 65.1 1,458 9.7
65 to 74 4,160 8,415 9,307 12,591 14,391 5,147 123.7 3,284 35.3
75+3,547 5,239 5,128 7,789 17,438 1,581 44.6 2,661 51.9
Total 91,042 106,922 113,538 132,710 156,439 22,496 24.7 19,172 16.9
Twin Cities Metro Area
Under-20 774,287 807,779 799,205 830,570 891,592 24,918 3.2 31,365 3.9
20 to 24 190,135 204,449 205,697 218,227 209,809 15,562 8.2 12,530 6.1
25 to 34 420,311 461,051 450,957 471,765 515,369 30,646 7.3 20,808 4.6
35 to 44 391,324 433,219 452,724 491,797 493,552 61,400 15.7 39,073 8.6
45 to 54 440,753 383,582 390,974 413,995 485,570 -49,779 -11.3 23,021 5.9
55 to 64 326,007 407,529 413,265 398,124 410,753 87,258 26.8 -15,141 -3.7
65 to 74 163,425 280,321 309,379 355,226 301,422 145,954 89.3 45,847 14.8
75+143,325 185,209 203,939 271,297 344,933 60,614 42.3 67,358 33.0
Total 2,849,567 3,163,140 3,226,140 3,451,000 3,653,000 376,573 13.2 224,860 7.0
Sources: US Census; ESRI; Met. Council; MN State Demographic Ctr.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Projection
2010 - 2040
Change
Census 2010-2023 2023-2030
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
33
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 24
• In 2023, the largest adult cohort by age in Carver County is 35 to 44 with 16,495 people
(14.5% of the population), followed by the 45 to 54 age group with 15,352 people (13.5%).
By comparison, age 35 to 44 is the largest cohort in the Metro Area (14.0%), followed
closely by the 25 to 34 age group (14.0%).
• The 35 to 44 age group is projected to remain the most populous age cohort in Carver
County in 2030 (14.6% of the population) and in 2040 (14.2%). In the Metro Area, age 35 to
44 is expected to be the largest cohort in 2030 (14.3%), while the 25 to 34 age group be-
comes the largest cohort in 2040 (14.1%).
• Strong growth is expected to occur among older adults in the Market Area, as aging of baby
boomers led to substantial increases in the 65 to 74 population between 2010 and 2023.
– Between 2023 and 2030, the 75 and older age group is projected to experience the fast-
est growth, increasing 52% (2,661 people) in Carver County and 33% in the Metro Area.
– The 65 to 74 age group is projected to increase 35% in Carver County (3,284 people) and
15% in the Metro Area between 2023 and 2030.
• Growth is projected among all age groups in Carver County between 2023 and 2030, includ-
ing 22% growth in 25 to 34 age group (3,076 people) and 17% growth in the 35 to 44 age
group (2,851 people).
• Modest growth is projected in the middle-aged cohorts in the County, a result of the com-
paratively small number of people who will move into th ese age groups by 2030 due to the
“baby bust” (a reference to the generation of children born between 1965 and 1980, an era
when the United States’ birthrate dropped sharply).
12.4
5.7
22.0
17.3
9.8
9.7
35.3
51.9
16.9
3.9
6.1
4.6
8.6
5.9
-3.7
14.8
33.0
7.0
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Under-20
20 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75+
Total
Percent GrowthAge GroupProjected Population Growth by Age Group: 2023-2030
Metro Area
Carver Co.
34
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 4
Estimate Projection
Age 2010 2020 2023 2030 No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver Submarket
Under-20 1,934 2,442 2,840 3,018 906 46.9 178 6.3
20 to 24 266 357 457 522 191 71.6 66 14.4
25 to 34 730 704 1,044 1,107 314 43.0 63 6.0
35 to 44 1,024 1,190 1,322 1,453 297 29.0 131 9.9
45 to 54 1,010 1,106 1,389 1,539 378 37.4 150 10.8
55 to 64 523 1,000 1,264 1,371 741 141.6 107 8.5
65 to 74 253 526 754 1,037 501 197.9 283 37.5
75+146 229 376 562 230 157.4 186 49.5
Total 5,887 7,554 9,445 10,610 3,558 60.4 1,165 12.3
Chanhassen Submarket
Under-20 7,415 7,361 6,667 7,233 -748 -10.1 566 8.5
20 to 24 784 1,211 1,422 1,348 637 81.3 -73 -5.2
25 to 34 2,113 2,256 3,125 3,778 1,012 47.9 653 20.9
35 to 44 3,478 3,593 3,478 4,443 0 0.0 965 27.8
45 to 54 4,829 3,868 3,612 3,831 -1,217 -25.2 219 6.1
55 to 64 2,568 4,202 4,393 4,557 1,825 71.1 164 3.7
65 to 74 1,000 2,171 2,475 3,688 1,475 147.5 1,213 49.0
75+765 1,285 1,168 1,928 403 52.6 760 65.1
Total 22,952 25,947 26,340 30,806 3,388 14.8 4,466 17.0
Chaska Submarket
Under-20 7,631 8,175 8,246 9,174 615 8.1 928 11.3
20 to 24 1,128 1,411 1,676 1,764 548 48.6 88 5.3
25 to 34 3,548 3,388 4,343 5,259 796 22.4 916 21.1
35 to 44 3,765 4,243 4,489 5,048 723 19.2 559 12.5
45 to 54 3,902 3,650 3,568 3,911 -334 -8.6 343 9.6
55 to 64 2,230 3,692 3,408 3,654 1,177 52.8 246 7.2
65 to 74 862 2,069 1,984 2,569 1,122 130.3 585 29.5
75+704 1,182 990 1,459 285 40.5 470 47.5
Total 23,770 27,810 28,703 32,838 4,933 20.8 4,135 14.4
Cologne Submarket
Under-20 792 895 927 1,148 135 17.1 221 23.8
20 to 24 118 116 147 222 30 25.0 74 50.4
25 to 34 379 399 338 418 -42 -11.0 80 23.7
35 to 44 434 448 487 533 53 12.1 46 9.4
45 to 54 387 423 449 540 62 15.9 91 20.2
55 to 64 291 417 389 484 98 33.8 96 24.6
65 to 74 150 285 291 382 141 94.1 92 31.5
75+99 153 148 235 49 50.1 87 58.7
Total 2,650 3,136 3,176 3,962 526 19.8 786 24.7
2010-2023 2023-2030
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2010 - 2030
Change
Census
---------- continued ----------
35
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 26
Estimate Projection
Age 2010 2020 2023 2030 No.Pct.No.Pct.
Hamburg-Norwood Yound America Submarket
Under-20 1,335 1,332 1,403 1,970 68 5.1 567 40.4
20 to 24 252 255 273 335 21 8.3 62 22.5
25 to 34 655 600 721 942 66 10.1 222 30.8
35 to 44 639 716 785 1,089 146 22.9 305 38.8
45 to 54 777 591 638 843 -139 -17.9 205 32.2
55 to 64 549 715 754 847 205 37.3 93 12.3
65 to 74 271 514 552 776 280 103.3 224 40.7
75+299 389 327 553 27 9.2 226 69.3
Total 4,777 5,112 5,452 7,356 675 14.1 1,904 34.9
Mayer-New Germany Submarket
Under-20 1,231 1,524 1,569 1,695 338 27.5 126 8.0
20 to 24 154 183 212 237 57 37.3 26 12.2
25 to 34 621 664 578 597 -44 -7.0 19 3.3
35 to 44 574 724 889 826 315 55.0 -63 -7.0
45 to 54 659 582 605 760 -55 -8.3 156 25.8
55 to 64 445 643 638 647 193 43.4 9 1.5
65 to 74 254 370 427 540 174 68.5 112 26.3
75+146 209 243 349 96 65.9 106 43.7
Total 4,084 4,899 5,160 5,652 1,076 26.3 492 9.5
Victoria Submarket
Under-20 3,255 3,932 4,201 4,079 946 29.1 -122 -2.9
20 to 24 574 731 676 623 101 17.7 -53 -7.9
25 to 34 628 951 1,364 1,397 736 117.2 33 2.4
35 to 44 1,634 1,702 1,892 2,159 258 15.8 266 14.1
45 to 54 1,678 1,967 2,069 1,914 391 23.3 -155 -7.5
55 to 64 1,005 1,748 1,783 1,833 778 77.4 50 2.8
65 to 74 493 941 1,220 1,409 726 147.3 190 15.6
75+320 540 666 966 346 108.2 300 45.1
Total 9,588 12,512 13,871 14,380 4,283 44.7 509 3.7
Waconia Submarket
Under-20 3,958 4,450 4,787 6,101 829 20.9 1,313 27.4
20 to 24 408 596 758 922 350 85.6 164 21.6
25 to 34 1,408 1,317 1,659 2,730 251 17.8 1,071 64.5
35 to 44 2,052 2,051 2,278 2,801 226 11.0 523 23.0
45 to 54 1,790 2,075 2,198 2,557 408 22.8 359 16.3
55 to 64 928 1,639 1,582 2,225 654 70.5 643 40.6
65 to 74 606 998 1,004 1,456 399 65.8 452 45.0
75+774 975 879 1,272 105 13.6 392 44.6
Total 11,925 14,101 15,147 20,064 3,222 27.0 4,917 32.5
---------- continued ----------
TABLE continued
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2010 - 2030
Change
Census 2010-2023 2023-2030
36
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 27
• As illustrated in the following chart, age 35 to 44 is largest adult cohort in the Chaska, Co-
logne, Hamburg-Norwood Young America, Mayer-New Germany, Waconia, and Watertown
Submarkets. Age 45 to 54 is the largest age group in the Carver and Victoria Submarkets,
while the 55 to 64 age group is the largest cohort in the Chanhassen Submarket.
Estimate Projection
Age 2010 2020 2023 2030 No.Pct.No.Pct.
Watertown Submarket
Under-20 1,620 1,652 1,631 1,815 11 0.7 184 11.3
20 to 24 259 296 338 336 78 30.2 -2 -0.6
25 to 34 712 693 794 929 82 11.5 135 17.0
35 to 44 842 756 874 979 32 3.8 105 12.0
45 to 54 834 765 831 916 -3 -0.3 85 10.2
55 to 64 583 867 823 883 240 41.1 60 7.3
65 to 74 270 541 604 719 335 124.2 114 18.9
75+289 277 350 466 61 21.2 115 32.9
Total 5,409 5,847 6,245 7,042 836 15.5 797 12.8
Sources: U.S. Census; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2010 - 2030
Change
Census 2010-2023 2023-2030
15.6%
15.3%14.4%17.2%15.0%14.0%
14.7%14.9%
16.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2023 Population Distribution by Age Group
Carver County Submarkets
75+
65 to 74
55 to 64
45 to 54
35 to 44
25 to 34
20 to 24
Under-20
37
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 28
• The following graph illustrates projected population group by age group for each of the
Carver County submarkets from 2023 to 2030. As shown, solid growth is expected to occur
among multiple age groups across all of the submarkets.
• Based on age distribution projections for the County, demand growth is expected to be
strongest for housing units catering to the senior population, rental housing and entry-level
ownership housing, and move-up ownership housing. Typical housing products sought by
households in various age groups include:
- Rental housing targeting the young adult (20 to 24 and 25 to 34) age groups
- Maintenance-free, single-level housing (ownership or rental) targeting the empty nester
population (55 to 74 age group)
- Entry-level ownership housing for first-time home buyers (age 25 to 34)
- Move-up ownership housing for family households (age 35 to 54), and,
- Age-restricted active adult or service-enhanced (i.e. assisted living) housing for seniors.
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Percent Growth
Projected Population by Age Group: 2023 -2030
Carver County Submarkets
75+
65 to 74
55 to 64
45 to 54
35 to 44
25 to 34
20 to 24
Under-20
38
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Household Income
Household income data helps ascertain the demand for different types of housing based on the
size of the market at specific cost levels. In general, housing costs of up to 30% of income are
considered affordable by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The
tables on the following pages present data on household income by age of householder for
Carver County and its submarkets in 2023 and 2030. The data is estimated by ESRI with adjust-
ments made by Maxfield Research to reflect the household estimates and projections.
• In 2023, Carver County’s median household income is at $106,058, 18% higher than $89,780
in the Metro Area.
• Within the County, median household incomes are estimated to be highest in the Victoria
($159,163), Chanhassen ($124,829), and Carver ($110,718) submarkets and lowest in the
Hamburg-Norwood Young America ($70,739) and Mayer-New Germany ($88,135) submar-
kets.
• As households age through the lifecycle, incomes tend to peak in their 40s to early 50s. As
illustrated in the following chart, this trend is evident throughout Carver County as the age
35 to 44 and 45 to 54 cohorts generally have the highest estimated incomes.
• By 2030, the median household income in Carver County is projected to increase 19.6% to
$126,894. The average annual increase (2.8%) will exceed the historical annual inflation
rate of 2.5% over the past ten years.
$110,718
$124,829
$91,823 $98,828
$70,739
$88,135
$159,163
$104,322
$89,104
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2023 Median Household Income by Age of Householder
Carver County Submarkets
<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+Total
39
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 5
Total <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Less than $15,000 811 49 98 94 82 178 143 167
$15,000 to $24,999 1,755 100 212 186 165 379 319 394
$25,000 to $34,999 2,512 98 342 271 295 440 432 634
$35,000 to $49,999 2,682 125 405 382 304 461 433 572
$50,000 to $74,999 6,647 233 963 1,048 851 1,195 1,617 741
$75,000 to $99,999 4,849 159 908 1,064 789 930 730 270
$100,000 to $199,999 14,569 177 2,454 3,589 3,560 3,112 1,284 393
$200,000 or more 7,358 25 847 1,842 2,245 1,803 482 113
Total 41,183 966 6,228 8,475 8,291 8,498 5,441 3,284
Median Income $106,058 $59,221 $104,762 $126,025 $144,890 $116,094 $69,953 $45,780
Less than $15,000 816 57 97 82 74 139 134 233
$15,000 to $24,999 1,425 77 168 114 109 261 285 410
$25,000 to $34,999 2,431 92 312 202 206 352 446 820
$35,000 to $49,999 2,633 119 385 325 240 368 435 760
$50,000 to $74,999 7,191 250 1,035 958 799 1,093 1,934 1,122
$75,000 to $99,999 5,303 183 988 1,072 773 908 946 433
$100,000 to $199,999 19,335 250 3,408 4,556 4,230 3,841 2,185 864
$200,000 or more 9,957 27 1,243 2,555 2,679 2,265 906 282
Total 49,091 1,056 7,636 9,866 9,111 9,228 7,270 4,924
Median Income $126,894 $68,991 $126,264 $161,129 $160,232 $148,985 $90,830 $57,362
Less than $15,000 5 8 -1 -12 -8 -39 -9 66
$15,000 to $24,999 -329 -22 -43 -72 -56 -117 -34 16
$25,000 to $34,999 -81 -6 -30 -69 -89 -88 13 187
$35,000 to $49,999 -50 -6 -20 -56 -64 -93 2 188
$50,000 to $74,999 545 18 72 -89 -52 -102 317 381
$75,000 to $99,999 454 24 80 8 -15 -22 216 163
$100,000 to $199,999 4,766 73 955 967 670 729 901 471
$200,000 or more 2,599 2 396 713 434 462 423 169
Total 7,908 90 1,408 1,391 820 730 1,829 1,641
Median Income $20,836 $9,770 $21,502 $35,104 $15,342 $32,891 $20,877 $11,582
Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2023
2030
Change 2023 - 2030
HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY
2023 & 2030
Age of Householder
40
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 31
TABLE 6
Submarket HHs Income*HHs Income No.Income No.Income No.Income No.Income No.Income
Carver 73 $67,664 423 $114,966 611 $134,220 715 $136,794 683 $106,129 390 $71,454 227 $49,085 $110,718
Chanhassen 134 $58,941 1,325 $113,715 1,750 $150,247 1,894 $175,592 2,464 $153,132 1,455 $73,672 767 $51,490 $124,829
Chaska 360 $53,360 2,057 $92,853 2,433 $109,122 2,005 $122,108 2,037 $100,865 1,232 $63,943 649 $41,215 $91,823
Cologne 38 $75,599 148 $106,215 249 $117,161 241 $115,428 225 $100,000 174 $69,790 103 $42,413 $98,828
Hamburg-NYA 61 $54,330 333 $75,899 438 $96,792 351 $99,661 421 $69,379 331 $57,762 230 $31,754 $70,739
Mayer-New Germ.34 $66,859 251 $101,792 444 $110,208 323 $101,970 351 $81,220 242 $59,082 151 $41,571 $88,135
Victoria 79 $81,108 551 $154,755 918 $172,438 1,066 $198,375 924 $177,323 667 $100,833 399 $56,493 $159,163
Waconia 130 $62,121 795 $108,968 1,197 $134,804 1,268 $133,543 926 $95,243 562 $66,103 551 $43,116 $104,322
Watertown 54 $60,489 338 $92,902 437 $104,575 435 $107,704 460 $91,477 384 $69,877 216 $42,758 $89,104
Carver County 966 $59,221 6,228 $104,762 8,475 $126,025 8,291 $144,890 8,498 $116,094 5,441 $69,953 3,284 $45,780 $106,058
Metro Area 50,265 $48,041 206,903 $86,322 241,269 $109,486 216,314 $117,684 236,434 $103,671 186,474 $71,930 129,057 $45,706 $89,780
Carver 80 $76,741 449 $139,810 669 $159,398 793 $158,982 742 $132,465 534 $90,886 338 $57,597 $126,923
Chanhassen 125 $68,754 1,546 $149,583 2,139 $170,982 1,945 $192,481 2,453 $172,025 2,065 $100,724 1,203 $61,606 $158,571
Chaska 401 $59,657 2,475 $113,462 2,687 $136,077 2,187 $140,790 2,127 $126,503 1,543 $79,362 925 $51,670 $112,395
Cologne 52 $83,011 194 $122,755 280 $130,804 301 $138,943 290 $115,632 237 $104,424 166 $61,796 $112,159
Hamburg-NYA 78 $64,955 447 $86,180 623 $122,321 476 $115,338 481 $88,226 478 $67,985 401 $37,651 $86,716
Mayer-New Germ.42 $88,138 275 $118,599 427 $120,708 426 $118,834 370 $118,380 314 $73,981 231 $55,742 $109,895
Victoria 73 $109,534 570 $173,570 1,058 $192,565 1,002 $200,657 947 $198,012 772 $130,928 574 $69,105 $174,113
Waconia 157 $66,544 1,327 $130,342 1,481 $163,793 1,473 $165,329 1,306 $125,789 811 $80,996 800 $54,162 $127,761
Watertown 52 $69,840 399 $113,030 504 $124,897 494 $137,342 509 $119,914 471 $89,819 299 $58,904 $111,134
Carver County 1,056 $68,991 7,636 $126,264 9,866 $161,129 9,111 $160,232 9,228 $148,985 7,270 $90,830 4,924 $57,362 $126,894
Metro Area 53,966 $54,441 214,145 $106,726 256,621 $126,815 225,983 $134,194 223,330 $125,333 208,940 $92,016 168,015 $60,002 $109,216
*Median Household Income
Sources: ESRI; Metropolitan Council; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2023 & 2030
Age of Householder
65 -74 75+Median HH
Income
2023
2030
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
41
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 32
• The following map illustrates the 2023 estimated median household income by Census
Block Group in Carver County from ESRI.
• As shown, median household incomes are highest in portions of Victoria, Chaska, and
Chanhassen. Portions of Chaska as well as Norwood Young America and Young America
Township in the southwestern corner of the County have some of the lowest median house-
hold incomes in the County.
Estimated Median Household Income
42
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 33
• Household growth is projected to be strongest among the highest income brackets in Carver
County, as the total number of households with incomes of $100,000 or higher increases
34% (7,365 households) between 2023 and 2030.
• The following chart illustrates projected changes to the median household income for each
Carver County submarket from 2023 to 2030.
• Average annual increases will exceed the historical annual inflation rate (2.5%) in the
Chanhassen (3.9%), Mayer-New Germany (3.5%), Watertown (3.5%), Chaska (3.2%), Ham-
burg- Norwood Young America (3.2%), and Waconia (3.2%) submarkets. Income growth in
the Victoria (1.3%), Cologne (1.9%), and Carver (2.1%) submarkets is projected to trail the
historical rate of inflation.
• HUD defines affordable housing cost as less than 30% of a household’s adjusted gross in-
come. Generally, housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 80%
of Area Median Income (AMI) is considered affordable.
• The median contract rent for renter-occupied housing units in Carver County is $1,164
(2017-2021 American Community Survey). Based on this rent, a household would need to
have an annual income of $46,560 or greater to not exceed 30% of its monthly income on
rental housing costs.
- In 2023, an estimated 34,040 households in the County (83% of the total) are estimated
to have incomes of at least $46,560.
2023
$110,718
2023
$124,829
2023
$91,823
2023
$98,828
2023
$70,739
2023
$88,135
2023
$159,163
2023
$104,322 2023
$89,104
2030
$126,923
2030
$158,571
2030
$112,395
2030
$112,159
2030
$86,716
2030
$109,895
2030
$174,113
2030
$127,761 2030
$111,134
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
Median Household Income by Submarket
2023 & 2030
43
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 34
• As presented in the For-Sale Market Analysis section of this study, the 2023 median resale
price for detached single-family homes in Carver County was $489,900. A household would
need a minimum annual income of $165,603 to be income-qualified (based on 30% of in-
come) for a single-family home purchased at the median resale price. This assumes a 30-
year interest rate of 7.44% (November 2023), a potential buyer makes a 10% down pay-
ment, and has good credit.
- An estimated 12,312 households in Carver County (30% of the total) have incomes of
$165,603 or higher.
• This data indicates that the existing rental housing stock is relatively affordable proportion-
ate to household incomes in the County, while for-sale housing is somewhat unattainable
for many County households (based on the 2023 recent median resale price).
• The Affordability section of this report provides a detailed summary of for-sale and rental
housing affordability by submarket, but the following graph summarizes the number of
households that can afford these rental housing ($1,164) and for -sale housing costs
($489,900) by submarket.
• The percentage of households that can afford the median contract rent of $1,164 ranges
from 73% in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket to 89% in the Victoria Sub-
market. The percent of income-qualified households for a home sale at $489,900 ranges
from 6% of households in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket to 42% in the
Victoria Submarket.
86%
87%
79%
83%
73%
82%
89%
81%
79%
21%
32%
20%
14%
6%
9%
42%
21%
10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Percent of Income-Qualified Households by Submarket
Owner vs. Renter Housing
Rent Own
44
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 35
Net Worth
The tables on the following pages show the estimated net worth by age of household in Carver
County compared to the Metro Area, along with the submarkets comprising the County.
Household net worth data was estimated by ESRI based on the Federal Reserve Board “Survey
of Consumer Finances”.
• In 2023, the median net worth for households in Carver County is estimated to be $388,799
compared to $241,045 in the Metro Area.
• In Carver County, median net worth is highest for households in the 55 to 64 age cohort at
$685,574, followed by the 45 to 54 age group at $607,448.
• The net worth distribution for households in Carver County shows concentrations of net
worth at the high ends of the spectrum. The largest concentration (25%) of households has
an estimated net worth of $1,000,000 or more, while 19% of households have a net worth
of $500,000 to $999,999.
• By comparison 19% of households in the Metro Area have a net worth of $1,000,000 or
more, while 17% have an estimated net worth of less than $15,000.
• The following graph depicts the median net worth of households in Carver County by sub-
market. As shown, the median net worth is highest for households in the Victoria, Chanhas-
sen, and Carver submarkets and lowest in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America, Chaska,
and Watertown submarkets.
$483,674$591,762$247,911$332,805$191,797$291,606$848,603$349,000$277,759$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Carver County: Median Net Worth by Submarket
Carver County: $388,799
45
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TABLE 7
Carver County Total % of Total <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Less than $15,000 2,565 6.2%270 869 549 174 286 288 129
$15,000 to $34,999 1,071 2.6%133 352 241 75 83 146 42
$35,000 to $49,999 588 1.4%48 195 136 42 63 60 42
$50,000 to $74,999 1,565 3.8%55 603 253 205 239 79 131
$75,000 to $99,999 1,897 4.6%161 606 383 197 290 109 150
$100,000 to $149,999 2,788 6.8%133 752 519 476 503 194 211
$150,000 to $249,999 5,107 12.4%106 925 1,346 959 781 464 527
$250,000 to $499,999 7,412 18.0%36 1,253 1,565 1,304 1,355 1,125 774
$500,000 to $999,999 7,850 19.1%23 467 2,094 2,094 1,315 1,274 582
$1,000,000 or more 10,338 25.1%0 204 1,390 2,763 3,584 1,701 696
Total 41,183 100%966 6,228 8,475 8,291 8,498 5,441 3,284
Median Net Worth $388,799 $62,713 $128,650 $346,853 $607,448 $685,574 $558,709 $346,516
Average Net Worth $1,729,785 $97,466 $255,704 $1,173,756 $2,443,285 $2,874,205 $1,946,364 $1,318,691
Metro Area Total % of Total <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Less than $15,000 216,166 17.1%26,546 72,794 39,808 17,425 23,774 24,701 11,118
$15,000 to $34,999 58,265 4.6%8,089 17,617 14,235 5,057 4,906 6,793 1,568
$35,000 to $49,999 25,821 2.0%1,576 7,663 5,248 2,867 3,741 3,297 1,429
$50,000 to $74,999 60,763 4.8%1,675 21,603 9,988 8,369 9,281 4,580 5,267
$75,000 to $99,999 58,480 4.6%5,135 13,930 15,177 7,562 7,631 3,289 5,756
$100,000 to $149,999 80,663 6.4%3,648 18,154 16,145 16,048 13,391 5,660 7,617
$150,000 to $249,999 142,374 11.2%2,317 22,046 34,304 28,940 24,016 12,869 17,882
$250,000 to $499,999 196,134 15.5%819 21,831 39,489 36,543 36,051 33,264 28,137
$500,000 to $999,999 183,647 14.5%456 8,327 39,838 42,186 36,120 37,617 19,103
$1,000,000 or more 244,300 19.3%0 2,921 27,017 51,299 77,504 54,389 31,170
Total 1,266,716 100%50,261 206,886 241,249 216,296 236,415 186,459 129,047
Median Net Worth $241,045 $14,200 $54,857 $198,589 $368,163 $452,657 $485,383 $338,807
Average Net Worth $1,324,393 $50,523 $145,139 $841,835 $1,750,410 $2,269,398 $1,846,160 $1,414,027
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Data Note: Net Worth is total household wealth minus debt, secured and unsecured. Net worth includes home equity, equity in pension plans, net
equity in vehicles, IRAs and Keogh accounts, business equity, interest-earning assets and mutual fund shares, stocks, etc. Examples of secured debt
include home mortgages and vehicle loans; examples of unsecured debt include credit card debt, certain bank loans, and other outstanding bills.
Forecasts of net worth are based on the Survey of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Board. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.
2023 ESTIMATED NET WORTH BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
46
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 8
Age of Householder Median Average Median Average Median Average
15 to 24 $88,415 $123,584 $76,996 $104,673 $17,994 $61,869
25 to 34 $173,950 $285,846 $156,904 $303,425 $89,620 $209,524
35 to 44 $473,569 $1,865,324 $466,485 $1,319,555 $230,735 $1,130,719
45 to 54 $604,634 $2,258,180 $1,000,001 $3,606,245 $414,230 $1,863,962
55 to 64 $588,329 $2,255,651 $1,000,001 $4,102,381 $443,612 $2,264,039
65 to 74 $629,006 $1,743,079 $659,939 $2,399,188 $374,189 $1,410,221
75+$452,065 $1,292,334 $405,896 $1,528,742 $277,223 $1,139,529
Total $483,674 $1,729,186 $591,762 $2,485,182 $247,911 $1,302,370
Age of Householder Median Average Median Average Median Average
15 to 24 $84,840 $96,631 $38,703 $56,195 $93,787 $106,730
25 to 34 $155,800 $212,465 $75,000 $110,091 $151,935 $217,225
35 to 44 $310,138 $877,812 $167,271 $334,929 $286,583 $517,020
45 to 54 $413,456 $1,077,960 $266,010 $586,012 $334,583 $705,900
55 to 64 $491,594 $1,415,653 $270,234 $652,514 $350,749 $925,337
65 to 74 $532,641 $1,440,217 $320,086 $675,401 $420,828 $1,111,192
75+$371,513 $1,311,883 $197,199 $481,367 $349,969 $827,818
Total $332,805 $1,033,364 $191,797 $462,554 $291,606 $687,437
Age of Householder Median Average Median Average Median Average
15 to 24 $134,035 $243,362 $85,357 $112,019 $77,719 $76,011
25 to 34 $267,758 $482,581 $142,233 $241,885 $105,285 $157,610
35 to 44 $587,871 $932,276 $429,406 $1,716,169 $250,000 $613,608
45 to 54 $1,000,001 $4,059,456 $556,407 $2,025,917 $343,251 $957,747
55 to 64 $1,000,001 $5,277,768 $418,218 $1,774,502 $386,537 $1,228,584
65 to 74 $1,000,001 $3,758,628 $492,324 $1,583,471 $479,791 $1,286,739
75+$638,312 $2,144,497 $289,892 $1,191,405 $317,067 $1,104,408
Total $848,603 $2,977,178 $349,000 $1,476,971 $277,759 $877,821
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Data Note: Net Worth is total household wealth minus debt, secured and unsecured. Net worth
includes home equity, equity in pension plans, net equity in vehicles, IRAs and Keogh accounts,
business equity, interest-earning assets and mutual fund shares, stocks, etc. Examples of secured debt
include home mortgages and vehicle loans; examples of unsecured debt include credit card debt,
certain bank loans, and other outstanding bills. Forecasts of net worth are based on the Survey of
Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Board. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.
Carver Chanhassen Chaska
NET WORTH BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2023
Submarket
Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.
Victoria Waconia Watertown
Cologne
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Household Tenure by Income
The table on the following pages shows estimated household tenure by income in the Market
Area in 2023. Data is based on an estimate from the 2017-2021 American Community Survey
and adjusted by Maxfield Research to reflect 2023 data. Generally, the higher the income, the
lower the percentage a household allocates to housing. Many lower income households, as
well as many young and senior households, spend more than 30% of their income on housing,
while middle-aged households in their prime earning years often allocate 20% to 25% of their
income to housing.
• Typically, as income increases, so does the rate of homeownership. This can be seen in
Carver County, where the homeownership rate increases from 54% of households with in-
comes below $15,000 to 97% of households with incomes above $150,000.
• The reverse is generally true among renter households, as 46% of all households with in-
comes below $150,000 are renters, while just 3% of all households with incomes of
$150,000 or more are renters.
• The largest number of owner households in Carver County have incomes in excess of
$150,000 at an estimated 13,330 households, representing 40% of all owner households in
the County, followed by households with incomes in the $100,000 to $149,999 range with
7,565 households (22% of all owner households).
• Among renter households, households with incomes in the $50,000 to $74,999 range repre-
sent the highest proportion at an estimated 1,807 households (24% of all renter house-
holds).
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
<$15,000
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000+
<$15,000 $15,000-
$24,999
$25,000-
$34,999
$35,000-
$49,999
$50,000-
$74,999
$75,000-
$99,999
$100,000-
$149,999
$150,000
+
Own 786 870 1,081 1,726 3,956 4,470 7,565 13,330
Rent 674 808 828 969 1,807 1,040 850 423
Carver County Household Tenure by Income
48
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 9
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
Less than $15,000 43 61.9 246 90.3 185 40.4 16 34.2 45 50.0 27 81.2
$15,000 to $24,999 150 91.4 133 51.1 245 40.5 40 82.8 66 45.8 62 89.4
$25,000 to $34,999 51 52.2 174 55.6 252 42.2 57 82.1 61 38.8 43 53.9
$35,000 to $49,999 128 91.9 388 78.0 442 46.7 44 75.5 169 65.0 93 78.7
$50,000 to $74,999 373 89.8 972 80.2 698 40.5 118 92.0 323 71.8 280 88.1
$75,000 to $99,999 384 94.5 956 74.8 990 73.3 201 89.5 293 94.8 273 95.9
$100,000 to $149,999 702 80.8 1,645 90.5 1,651 84.8 286 97.5 412 88.3 583 98.1
$150,000+946 98.2 3,743 96.7 2,974 94.4 308 100.0 261 90.5 292 97.9
Subtotal:2,775 88.9 8,257 86.7 7,435 69.0 1,071 90.9 1,630 75.3 1,653 92.0
Renter Households
Less than $15,000 27 38.1 26 9.7 273 59.6 31 65.8 45 50.0 6 18.8
$15,000 to $24,999 14 8.6 127 48.9 359 59.5 8 17.2 78 54.2 7 10.6
$25,000 to $34,999 46 47.8 139 44.4 345 57.8 12 17.9 97 61.2 37 46.1
$35,000 to $49,999 11 8.1 109 22.0 505 53.3 14 24.5 91 35.0 25 21.3
$50,000 to $74,999 42 10.2 240 19.8 1,024 59.5 10 8.0 127 28.2 38 11.9
$75,000 to $99,999 22 5.5 322 25.2 360 26.7 24 10.5 16 5.2 12 4.1
$100,000 to $149,999 167 19.2 173 9.5 296 15.2 7 2.5 55 11.7 12 1.9
$150,000+17 1.8 126 3.3 176 5.6 - 0.0 27 9.5 6 2.1
Subtotal:347 11.1 1,263 13.3 3,338 31.0 107 9.1 536 24.7 143 8.0
Total Households 3,122 100 9,520 100 10,773 100 1,178 100 2,166 100 1,796 100
---------- continued ----------
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2023
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.
49
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 40
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
Less than $15,000 41 22.6 151 44.1 17 48.6 786 53.8
$15,000 to $24,999 56 37.8 92 40.2 29 47.0 870 51.8
$25,000 to $34,999 107 100.0 279 69.3 48 67.8 1,081 56.6
$35,000 to $49,999 109 39.0 139 55.9 212 86.9 1,726 64.0
$50,000 to $74,999 263 69.8 622 77.6 299 80.4 3,956 68.7
$75,000 to $99,999 325 67.0 571 75.0 460 95.8 4,470 81.1
$100,000 to $149,999 792 73.3 867 91.9 596 100.0 7,565 89.9
$150,000+2,540 97.4 1,675 98.5 447 96.4 13,330 96.9
Subtotal:4,234 80.4 4,396 81.0 2,108 90.7 33,784 82.0
Renter Households
Less than $15,000 139 77.4 191 55.9 18 51.4 674 46.2
$15,000 to $24,999 93 62.2 137 59.8 33 53.0 808 48.2
$25,000 to $34,999 - 0.0 124 30.7 23 32.2 828 43.4
$35,000 to $49,999 171 61.0 110 44.1 32 13.1 969 36.0
$50,000 to $74,999 114 30.2 180 22.4 73 19.6 1,807 31.3
$75,000 to $99,999 160 33.0 190 25.0 20 4.2 1,040 18.9
$100,000 to $149,999 289 26.7 76 8.1 - 0.0 850 10.1
$150,000+68 2.6 26 1.5 17 3.6 423 3.1
Subtotal:1,033 19.6 1,033 19.0 216 9.3 7,399 18.0
Total Households 5,267 100 5,429 100 2,324 100 41,183 100
Victoria Waconia Watertown
2023
Carver County Metro Area
TABLE continued
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
31.0
37.3
45.2
51.6
62.2
71.0
82.4
91.8
69.1
69.0
62.7
54.8
48.4
37.8
29.0
17.6
8.2
30.9
100
Pct.
50
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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• Owner households with incomes in excess of $150,000 are most common in the Victoria
(60% of all owner households), Chanhassen (45%), Chaska (40%), Waconia (38%), Carver
(34%), and Cologne (29%) Submarkets. Owner households in the $100,000 to $149,999 in-
come range are most common in the Mayer-New Germany (35%), Watertown (28%), and
Hamburg-Norwood Young America (25%) Submarkets.
• Renter households with incomes in the $50,000 to $74,999 range are most common in the
Watertown (34% of all renter households), Chaska (31%), Mayer-New Germany (27%), and
Hamburg-Norwood Young America (24%) Submarkets. Renter households with incomes be-
tween $100,000 and $150,000 are most common in the Carver (48%) and Victoria (28%)
Submarkets, while renter households with incomes below $15,000 are most common in the
Cologne (29%) and Waconia (19%) Submarkets.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Owner Households by Income Range and Submarket
<$15,000
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000+
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Renter Households by Income Range and Submarket
<$15,000
$15,000-$24,999
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000+
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Household Tenure by Age
The following tables summarize household tenure by age of householder for the Carver County
Market Area in 2010 and 2023. Data for 2010 is obtained from the Decennial Census, while the
2023 information is sourced from the 2017-2021 American Community Survey and adjusted by
Maxfield Research to reflect 2023 data. The table shows the number and percent of renter-
and owner-occupied housing units in the County. All data excludes unoccupied units and group
quarters such as dormitories and nursing homes.
Household tenure information is important in understanding households’ preferences to rent
or own their housing. In addition to preferences, other contributing factors include mortgage
interest rates, household age, and lifestyle considerations, among others.
• In Carver County, an estimated 82% of all households own in 2023, giving it a homeowner-
ship rate that is notably higher than the Metro Area (69% of households own).
– Within the prime ownership years (35 to 64), 88% of Carver County households own,
higher than the 76% home ownership rate in the Metro Area.
• Typically, the youngest and oldest households rent their housing in greater proportions than
middle-age households. This pattern is apparent among the younger households as 36% of
households under the age of 35 rents in Carver County compared to 59% of Metro Area
householders under the age of 35.
– Roughly 76% of households under age 25 rent in the County, slightly lower than the
Metro Area (84%), while an estimated 30% of County households age 25 to 34 rent (54%
in the Metro Area).
Under
25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +Total
Carver Co.23.6 70.2 89.0 87.7 87.5 79.5 82.0
Metro Area 16.1 46.5 70.1 78.3 80.5 76.6 69.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Household Tenure by Age of Householder
Homeownership Rate in 2023
52
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 43
TABLE 10
• The total number of owner households residing in Carver County expanded by an estimated
6,938 households between 2010 and 2023 (26% growth), outpacing the increase in renter
households (1,354 households, 22% growth).
– By comparison, renter household growth in the Metro Area (17%) outpaced the increase
in owner households (12%).
• In the Metro Area, the rate of growth from 2010 to 2023 was fastest among owner house-
holds age 65 and older (58% growth), followed by renter households age 65 and older (51%
growth), renter households age 55 to 64 (34% growth), and renter households age 35 to 44
(22% growth).
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 25 Own 237 31.5 228 23.6 7,947 16.0 8,107 16.1
Rent 516 68.5 738 76.4 41,789 84.0 42,158 83.9
Total 753 100.0 966 100.0 49,736 100.0 50,265 100.0
25-34 Own 3,649 72.4 4,371 70.2 102,236 50.6 96,253 46.5
Rent 1,393 27.6 1,857 29.8 99,716 49.4 110,650 53.5
Total 5,042 100.0 6,228 100.0 201,952 100.0 206,903 100.0
35-44 Own 6,582 85.9 7,542 89.0 154,678 72.3 169,225 70.1
Rent 1,084 14.1 933 11.0 59,303 27.7 72,044 29.9
Total 7,666 100.0 8,475 100.0 213,981 100.0 241,269 100.0
45-54 Own 7,949 88.6 7,268 87.7 202,404 79.8 169,477 78.3
Rent 1,019 11.4 1,023 12.3 51,379 20.2 46,837 21.7
Total 8,968 100.0 8,291 100.0 253,783 100.0 216,314 100.0
55-64 Own 4,780 88.4 7,437 87.5 162,595 82.6 190,386 80.5
Rent 625 11.6 1,061 12.5 34,355 17.4 46,047 19.5
Total 5,405 100.0 8,498 100.0 196,950 100.0 236,434 100.0
65 +Own 3,649 72.2 6,938 79.5 152,615 75.8 241,770 76.6
Rent 1,408 27.8 1,787 20.5 48,732 24.2 73,761 23.4
Total 5,057 100.0 8,725 100.0 201,347 100.0 315,532 100.0
TOTAL Own 26,846 81.6 33,784 82.0 782,475 70.0 875,219 69.1
Rent 6,045 18.4 7,399 18.0 335,274 30.0 391,497 30.9
Total 32,891 100.0 41,183 100.0 1,117,749 100.0 1,266,716 100.0
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2010 2023 2010 2023
2010 & 2023
Carver County Twin Cities Metro Area
TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
53
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 44
• As depicted in the following chart, with the exception of the 45 to 54 age cohort, household
growth occurred among all other age groups in Carver County between 2010 and 2023.
• The largest overall increase occurred in the 65 and older age group in the County, with the
addition of 3,289 owner households (90% growth) and 379 renter households (27%). The
55 to 64 age group also experienced rapid growth, adding 2,657 owner households (56%)
and 436 renter households (70%).
• Renter household growth occurred among most age groups in Carver County between 2010
and 2023, with modest contraction (-14%) occurring in the 35 to 44 age group. The 25 to 34
age group experienced the largest increase in renter households, adding 464 households
(33% growth).
• Owner household contraction occurred among households under the age of 25 (-4%) as well
as the 45 to 54 age group (9%). Aside from the previously mentioned growth in the 55 to 64
and 65 and older age groups, solid owner household growth also occurred in the 25 to 34
age group (722 households, 20% increase) and the 35 to 44 age group (960 households, 15%
growth).
• The table on the following pages summarizes household tenure by age of householder for
each of the Carver County submarkets.
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Rent 222 464 -151 4 436 379
Own -9 722 960 -681 2,657 3,289
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
HouseholdsHousehold Growth by Age Group and Tenure
Carver County (2010-2023)
54
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 45
TABLE 11
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 25 Own 21 52.5 0 0.0 32 26.7 82 61.3 55 20.8 32 8.9
Rent 19 47.5 73 100.0 88 73.3 52 38.8 210 79.2 328 91.1
Total 40 100.0 73 100.0 120 100.0 134 100.0 265 100.0 360 100.0
25-34 Own 280 88.1 328 77.6 730 75.4 941 71.0 1,048 60.8 1,024 49.8
Rent 38 11.9 95 22.4 238 24.6 384 29.0 676 39.2 1,033 50.2
Total 318 100.0 423 100.0 968 100.0 1,325 100.0 1,724 100.0 2,057 100.0
35-44 Own 478 93.4 590 96.6 1,664 89.9 1,630 93.1 1,621 78.0 1,950 80.1
Rent 34 6.6 21 3.4 186 10.1 120 6.9 456 22.0 483 19.9
Total 512 100.0 611 100.0 1,850 100.0 1,750 100.0 2,077 100.0 2,433 100.0
45-54 Own 513 91.6 663 92.7 2,480 92.5 1,671 88.2 1,901 82.3 1,663 83.0
Rent 47 8.4 52 7.3 202 7.5 224 11.8 409 17.7 342 17.0
Total 560 100.0 715 100.0 2,682 100.0 1,894 100.0 2,310 100.0 2,005 100.0
55-64 Own 289 93.2 583 85.4 1,432 92.9 2,253 91.4 1,107 80.7 1,649 81.0
Rent 21 6.8 100 14.6 110 7.1 212 8.6 264 19.3 388 19.0
Total 310 100.0 683 100.0 1,542 100.0 2,464 100.0 1,371 100.0 2,037 100.0
65 +Own 222 91.4 611 99.0 874 73.4 1,951 87.8 660 61.7 1,117 59.4
Rent 21 8.6 6 1.0 316 26.6 271 12.2 409 38.3 764 40.6
Total 243 100.0 617 100.0 1,190 100.0 2,222 100.0 1,069 100.0 1,881 100.0
TOTAL Own 1,803 90.9 2,775 88.9 7,212 86.4 8,527 87.1 6,392 72.5 7,435 69.0
Rent 180 9.1 347 11.1 1,140 13.6 1,263 12.9 2,424 27.5 3,338 31.0
Total 1,983 100.0 3,122 100.0 8,352 100.0 9,790 100.0 8,816 100.0 10,773 100.0
2010 & 2023
Carver Chanhassen Chaska
2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
---------- continued ----------
TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
55
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 46
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 25 Own 13 52.0 38 100.0 26 37.7 20 32.3 18 66.7 12 34.6
Rent 12 48.0 0 0.0 43 62.3 41 67.7 9 33.3 22 65.4
Total 25 100.0 38 100.0 69 100.0 61 100.0 27 100.0 34 100.0
25-34 Own 145 84.3 135 91.3 206 70.1 237 71.2 252 85.7 235 93.5
Rent 27 15.7 13 8.7 88 29.9 96 28.8 42 14.3 16 6.5
Total 172 100.0 148 100.0 294 100.0 333 100.0 294 100.0 251 100.0
35-44 Own 199 88.4 205 82.5 273 77.3 375 85.6 267 88.7 395 89.0
Rent 26 11.6 44 17.5 80 22.7 63 14.4 34 11.3 49 11.0
Total 225 100.0 249 100.0 353 100.0 438 100.0 301 100.0 444 100.0
45-54 Own 186 89.4 231 95.9 372 85.9 276 78.6 326 92.1 295 91.3
Rent 22 10.6 10 4.1 61 14.1 75 21.4 28 7.9 28 8.7
Total 208 100.0 241 100.0 433 100.0 351 100.0 354 100.0 323 100.0
55-64 Own 152 88.9 216 95.9 269 87.1 313 74.4 214 92.6 332 94.7
Rent 19 11.1 9 4.1 40 12.9 108 25.6 17 7.4 19 5.3
Total 171 100.0 225 100.0 309 100.0 421 100.0 231 100.0 351 100.0
65 +Own 137 84.6 245 88.5 278 69.8 409 72.8 214 87.7 384 97.8
Rent 25 15.4 32 11.5 120 30.2 153 27.2 30 12.3 9 2.2
Total 162 100.0 277 100.0 398 100.0 561 100.0 244 100.0 393 100.0
TOTAL Own 832 86.4 1,071 90.9 1,424 76.7 1,630 75.3 1,291 89.0 1,653 92.0
Rent 131 13.6 107 9.1 432 23.3 536 24.7 160 11.0 143 8.0
Total 963 100.0 1,178 100.0 1,856 100.0 2,166 100.0 1,451 100.0 1,796 100.0
---------- continued ----------
2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
TABLE continued
TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
Cologne Hamburg-Norwood Young America
2010 & 2023
Mayer-New Germany
56
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 47
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 25 Own 12 20.3 36 45.0 31 34.8 61 46.6 29 49.2 8 15.0
Rent 47 79.7 43 55.0 58 65.2 69 53.4 30 50.8 46 85.0
Total 59 100.0 79 100.0 89 100.0 130 100.0 59 100.0 54 100.0
25-34 Own 205 79.5 448 81.3 547 78.6 618 77.8 236 74.2 313 92.6
Rent 53 20.5 103 18.7 149 21.4 177 22.2 82 25.8 25 7.4
Total 258 100.0 551 100.0 696 100.0 795 100.0 318 100.0 338 100.0
35-44 Own 756 94.4 918 100.0 948 85.6 1,074 89.7 376 85.5 403 92.2
Rent 45 5.6 0 0.0 159 14.4 123 10.3 64 14.5 34 7.8
Total 801 100.0 918 100.0 1,107 100.0 1,197 100.0 440 100.0 437 100.0
45-54 Own 861 93.6 1,015 95.2 904 87.8 1,060 83.6 406 86.2 423 97.1
Rent 59 6.4 51 4.8 126 12.2 208 16.4 65 13.8 12 2.9
Total 920 100.0 1,066 100.0 1,030 100.0 1,268 100.0 471 100.0 435 100.0
55-64 Own 544 96.1 824 89.1 447 82.5 797 86.1 326 89.8 440 95.6
Rent 22 3.9 100 10.9 95 17.5 129 13.9 37 10.2 20 4.4
Total 566 100.0 924 100.0 542 100.0 926 100.0 363 100.0 460 100.0
65 +Own 448 91.2 993 93.2 526 59.8 786 70.6 290 76.1 522 86.9
Rent 43 8.8 73 6.8 353 40.2 327 29.4 91 23.9 78 13.1
Total 491 100.0 1,066 100.0 879 100.0 1,113 100.0 381 100.0 600 100.0
TOTAL Own 2,826 91.3 4,234 92.0 3,403 78.4 4,396 81.0 1,663 81.8 2,108 90.7
Rent 269 8.7 370 8.0 940 21.6 1,033 19.0 369 18.2 216 9.3
Total 3,095 100.0 4,604 100.0 4,343 100.0 5,430 100.0 2,032 100.0 2,324 100.0
Victoria
2010 & 2023
Waconia Watertown
TABLE continued
TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
57
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 48
• The following chart illustrates estimated home ownership rates by age group for each
Carver County submarket in 2023.
• Homeownership rates are highest in the Victoria (92.0%), Mayer-New Germany (92.0%), Co-
logne (90.9%), and Watertown (90.7%) Submarkets, and lowest in the Chaska (69.0%), Ham-
burg-Norwood Young America (75.3%), and Waconia (81.0%) Submarkets.
• Between 2010 and 2023, the largest household tenure shifts occurred in the Watertown
Submarket, as the homeownership rate increased 8.9% to 90.7% in 2023, followed by the
Cologne Submarket as the homeownership rate increased 4.5% to 90.9%.
• The proportion of renter households increased 3.5% in the Chaska Submarket, rising from
27.5% of all households in 2010 to 31.0% in 2023. The Carver and Hamburg-Norwood
Young America Submarkets also experienced increases in the proportion of renter house-
holds, climbing 2.0% to 11.1% and 1.4% to 24.7%, respectively.
• Renter household growth between 2010 and 2023 was largest in the Chaska (914 house-
holds, 38% growth), Carver (167 households, 93% growth), and Chanhassen (123 house-
holds, 11% growth) Submarkets.
• Owner household growth was largest in the Victoria (1,408 households, 50% growth),
Chanhassen (1,314 households, 18% growth), and Chaska (1,043 households, 16% growth)
Submarkets between 2010 and 2023.
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
Under Age 35 66.2%70.1%43.7%93.1%65.2%86.5%76.8%73.4%81.9%
Age 35-64 91.4%90.9%81.3%91.2%79.7%91.4%94.8%86.4%95.0%
Age 65+99.0%87.8%59.4%88.5%72.8%97.8%93.2%70.6%86.9%
Total 88.9%87.1%69.0%90.9%75.3%92.0%92.0%81.0%90.7%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Household Tenure by Age Group
Percentage of Owner Households in 2023
58
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 49
Tenure by Household Size
The table on the following pages summarizes household tenure by size of household in Carver
County and its Submarkets compared to the Metro Area during 2010 and 2023 from the U.S.
Census and American Community Survey, with adjustments made by Maxfield Research to re-
flect 2023 household estimates. All data excludes unoccupied units and group quarters such as
nursing homes.
Household size for renters tends to be smaller than for owners. This trend is a result of the typ-
ical market segments for rental housing, including households that are younger and less likely
to be married with children, as well as older adults and senior s who choose to downsize from
their single-family homes.
• In 2023, Carver County had an average owner household size of 2.79 persons per house-
hold, larger than 2.60 persons per household in the Metro Area. Average renter households
are notably smaller, at 2.09 in Carver County and 2.10 in the Metro Area.
• Average owner household sizes in the County range from 2.55 persons per household in the
Cologne Submarket to 2.93 persons in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket.
Average renter household sizes range from 1.92 in the Chaska Submarket to 2.69 in the Vic-
toria Submarket.
• Average household sizes declined in Carver County between 2010 and 2023, as average
renter household sizes decreased from 2.18 in 2010 to 2.09 in 2023 while average owner
household sizes contracted from 2.86 in 2010 to 2.79 in 2023.
2.89
2.67
2.84
2.55
2.93
2.77
2.89
2.83
2.75
2.79
2.60
2.65
2.23
1.92
2.65
2.11
2.43
2.69
1.95
2.33
2.09
2.10
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver Co.
Metro Area
Average Household Size by Tenure
2023
Own
Rent
59
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 50
• In the Metro Area, average owner household sizes decreased from 2.61 in 2010 to 2.60 in
2023, while average renter household sizes declined from 2.17 to 2.10.
• In Carver County, average owner household sizes declined between 2010 and 2023 in all
Submarkets, expect for Chaska, Hamburg-Norwood Young America, and Watertown. Aver-
age renter household sizes increased in all Submarkets, expect for Chaska, Hamburg-Nor-
wood Young America, and Mayer-New Germany.
TABLE 12
HH Size No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
1-Person Own 4,242 61.5 5,320 64.5 171,241 53.7 191,090 52.1
Rent 2,651 38.5 2,988 36.3 147,789 46.3 175,692 47.9
Total 6,893 100 8,242 100 319,030 100 366,673 100
2-Person Own 8,812 85.2 11,983 83.5 280,552 76.3 320,390 74.6
Rent 1,530 14.8 2,361 16.5 87,139 23.7 109,017 25.4
Total 10,342 100 14,345 100 367,691 100 429,407 100
3-Person Own 4,776 86.1 5,896 87.1 128,197 75.1 139,413 75.1
Rent 772 13.9 871 12.9 42,563 24.9 46,282 24.9
Total 5,548 100 6,767 100 170,760 100 185,695 100
4-Person Own 5,639 90.5 6,974 89.1 123,219 80.6 136,839 81.3
Rent 589 9.5 850 10.9 29,587 19.4 31,561 18.7
Total 6,228 100 7,824 100 152,806 100 168,400 100
5-Person Own 2,440 88.4 2,615 91.2 50,854 77.4 56,331 78.1
Rent 319 11.6 252 8.8 14,883 22.6 15,824 21.9
Total 2,759 100 2,867 100 65,737 100 72,155 100
6-Person Own 686 85.9 706 94.0 16,887 71.0 18,440 71.0
Rent 113 14.1 45 6.0 6,908 29.0 7,542 29.0
Total 799 100 750 100 23,795 100 25,982 100
7+Person Own 251 78.0 290 89.9 11,525 64.3 12,717 69.5
Rent 71 22.0 32 10.1 6,405 35.7 5,580 30.5
Total 322 100 322 100 17,930 100 18,297 100
TOTAL Own 26,846 81.6 33,784 82.0 782,475 70.0 875,219 69.1
Rent 6,045 18.4 7,399 18.0 335,274 30.0 391,497 30.9
Total 32,891 100 41,183 100 1,117,749 100 1,266,716 100
Avg. HH Size Own 2.86 2.79 2.61 2.60
Rent 2.18 2.09 2.17 2.10
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 & 2023
2023201020232010
---------- continued ----------
Carver County Twin Cities Metro Area
60
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 51
HH Size No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
1-Person Own 201 74.2 474 90.2 1,188 69.2 1,434 78.7 1,106 52.4 1,357 49.1
Rent 70 25.8 51 9.6 530 30.8 400 21.9 1,004 47.6 1,446 52.3
Total 271 100 526 100 1,718 100 1,822 100 2,110 100 2,762 100000
2-Person Own 610 93.3 780 85.8 2,291 88.0 3,304 87.2 1,999 76.3 2,155 64.3
Rent 44 6.7 129 14.2 312 12.0 486 12.8 622 23.7 1,196 35.7
Total 654 100 910 100 2,603 100 3,789 100 2,621 100 3,350 100000
3-Person Own 331 93.5 375 84.8 1,291 91.6 1,483 90.3 1,174 78.7 1,588 84.1
Rent 23 6.5 67 15.2 118 8.4 159 9.7 318 21.3 300 15.9
Total 354 100 442 100 1,409 100 1,642 100 1,492 100 1,888 100000
4-Person Own 407 96.0 965 91.5 1,564 93.9 1,559 91.1 1,339 83.3 1,234 78.8
Rent 17 4.0 90 8.5 102 6.1 152 8.9 268 16.7 332 21.2
Total 424 100 1,055 100 1,666 100 1,712 100 1,607 100 1,566 100000
5-Person Own 174 91.1 117 92.2 661 92.8 545 91.6 546 79.8 866 96.8
Rent 17 8.9 10 7.8 51 7.2 50 8.4 138 20.2 28 3.2
Total 191 100 127 100 712 100 595 100 684 100 895 100000
6-Person Own 49 87.5 40 100 163 90.6 135 100 162 78.6 205 85.0
Rent 7 12.5 0 0.0 17 9.4 0 0.0 44 21.4 36 15.0
Total 56 100 40 100 180 100 135 100 206 100 241 100000
7+Person Own 31 93.9 24 100 54 84.4 67 80.2 66 68.8 30 100
Rent 2 6.1 0 0.0 10 15.6 17 19.8 30 31.3 0 0.0
Total 33 100 24 100 64 100 84 100 96 100 30 100
TOTAL Own 1,803 90.9 2,775 88.9 7,212 86.4 8,527 87.1 6,392 72.5 7,435 69.0
Rent 180 9.1 347 11.1 1,140 13.6 1,263 12.9 2,424 27.5 3,338 31.0
Total 1,983 100 3,122 100 8,352 100 9,790 100 8,816 100 10,773 100
Avg. HH Size Own 3.01 2.89 2.85 2.67 2.839 2.843
Rent 2.42 2.65 2.06 2.23 2.24 1.92
2010
TABLE continued
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 & 2023
---------- continued ----------
Chaska
2010 202320102023
Carver Chanhassen
2023
61
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 52
HH Size No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
1-Person Own 138 73.8 203 80.8 255 58.2 271 57.8 198 80.5 264 82.1
Rent 49 26.2 50 20.1 183 41.8 203 43.2 48 19.5 58 18.0
Total 187 100 251 100 438 100 470 100 246 100 322 100000
2-Person Own 294 90.7 440 97.0 542 83.0 629 72.7 467 91.0 573 95.4
Rent 30 9.3 13 3.0 111 17.0 236 27.3 46 9.0 27 4.6
Total 324 100 453 100 653 100 865 100 513 100 601 100000
3-Person Own 153 88.4 163 96.3 246 78.6 242 95.1 209 89.7 320 93.5
Rent 20 11.6 6 3.7 67 21.4 12 4.9 24 10.3 22 6.5
Total 173 100 169 100 313 100 254 100 233 100 342 100000
4-Person Own 150 93.8 191 89.4 247 86.1 172 96.5 253 93.0 340 94.7
Rent 10 6.3 23 10.6 40 13.9 6 3.5 19 7.0 19 5.3
Total 160 100 214 100 287 100 179 100 272 100 359 100000
5-Person Own 66 81.5 55 100 82 87.2 172 68.7 116 89.2 103 89.9
Rent 15 18.5 0 0.0 12 12.8 78 31.3 14 10.8 12 10.1
Total 81 100 55 100 94 100 251 100 130 100 114 100000
6-Person Own 19 79.2 18 85.3 37 77.1 26 100 34 87.2 43 95.3
Rent 5 20.8 3 14.7 11 22.9 0 0.0 5 12.8 2 4.7
Total 24 100 21 100 48 100 26 100 39 100 45 100000
7+Person Own 12 85.7 2 14.3 15 65.2 117 100 14 77.8 10 76.9
Rent 2 14.3 11 85.7 8 34.8 0 0.0 4 22.2 3 23.1
Total 14 100 13 100 23 100 117 100 18 100 14 100
TOTAL Own 832 86.4 1,071 90.9 1,424 76.7 1,630 75.3 1,291 89.0 1,653 92.0
Rent 131 13.6 107 9.1 432 23.3 536 24.7 160 11.0 143 8.0
Total 963 100 1,178 100 1,856 100 2,166 100 1,451 100 1,796 100
Avg. HH Size Own 2.78 2.55 2.67 2.93 2.83 2.77
Rent 2.50 2.65 2.19 2.11 2.60 2.43
TABLE continued
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 & 2023
Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germany
2010 2010 2023
---------- continued ----------
2023 2010 2023
62
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 53
• In Carver County, two-person households are the most common household size (35% of all
households), followed by one-person households (20%), and four-person households (19%).
Similarly, one- and two-person households are most common in the Metro Area, represent-
ing 29% and 34% of all households, respectively.
• Two-person households are the most common owner household size in Carver County and
Metro Area (35% of owner households in the County, 37% in the Metro Area) while one-
person households are the most common renter household (40% of renter households in
the County, 45% in the Metro Area).
HH Size No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
1-Person Own 308 80.0 335 74.2 539 51.0 680 55.6 309 64.2 276 76.7
Rent 77 20.0 128 28.2 518 49.0 543 44.4 172 35.8 70 19.4
Total 385 100 452 100 1,057 100 1,224 100 481 100 360 100000
2-Person Own 992 91.8 1,683 95.1 1,025 83.9 1,551 89.9 592 88.2 894 97.3
Rent 89 8.2 87 4.9 197 16.1 174 10.1 79 11.8 24 2.7
Total 1,081 100 1,769 100 1,222 100 1,725 100 671 100 918 100000
3-Person Own 497 91.7 801 96.8 605 85.8 543 79.0 270 82.6 362 78.1
Rent 45 8.3 27 3.2 100 14.2 144 21.0 57 17.4 102 21.9
Total 542 100 828 100 705 100 687 100 327 100 464 100000
4-Person Own 645 95.8 998 96.8 753 91.8 1,233 87.8 281 88.1 347 94.5
Rent 28 4.2 33 3.2 67 8.2 172 12.2 38 11.9 20 5.5
Total 673 100 1,031 100 820 100 1,405 100 319 100 367 100000
5-Person Own 296 95.5 353 79.1 354 88.9 259 100 145 91.2 135 100
Rent 14 4.5 93 20.9 44 11.1 0 0.0 14 8.8 0 0.0
Total 310 100 447 100 398 100 259 100 159 100 135 100000
6-Person Own 72 88.9 63 96.1 99 90.8 96 100 51 91.1 79 100
Rent 9 11.1 3 3.9 10 9.2 0 0.0 5 8.9 0 0.0
Total 81 100 66 100 109 100 96 100 56 100 79 100000
7+Person Own 16 69.6 0 0.0 28 87.5 36 100 15 78.9 15 100
Rent 7 30.4 0 0.0 4 12.5 0 0.0 4 21.1 0 0.0
Total 23 100 0 0.0 32 100 36 100 19 100 15 100
TOTAL Own 2,826 91.3 4,234 92.0 3,403 78.4 4,396 81.0 1,663 81.8 2,108 90.7
Rent 269 8.7 370 8.0 940 21.6 1,033 19.0 369 18.2 216 9.3
Total 3,095 100 4,604 100 4,343 100 5,430 100 2,032 100 2,324 100
Avg. HH Size Own 2.97 2.89 2.93 2.83 2.74 2.75
Rent 2.51 2.69 1.90 1.95 2.12 2.33
2023
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2023 2010 20232010 2010
2010 & 2023
Victoria Waconia Watertown
TABLE continued
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
63
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 54
• As depicted in the following chart, two-person households are the most common household
size in eight of the submarkets, ranging from 31% of all households in the Chaska Submarket
to 40% of all households in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America and Watertown Submar-
kets. Four-person households are most common (34%) in the Carver Submarket.
• Between 2010 and 2023, the largest growth occurred in the number of two-person house-
holds in Carver County, adding 3,171 owner households (36% growth) and 831 renter
households (54%).
• One-, three-, and four-person households also experienced solid growth in the County be-
tween 2010 and 2023 among both renter and owner households. Contraction occurred
among five-, six-, and seven-person renter households during that timeframe.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Household Size Distribution in 2023
Carver County Submarkets
1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7+-person
1-
Person
2-
Person
3-
Person
4-
Person
5-
Person
6-
Person
7-
Person
Rent 337 831 99 261 -67 -68 -39
Own 1,078 3,171 1,120 1,335 175 20 39
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
HouseholdsGrowth by Household Size and Tenure
Carver County (2010-2023)
64
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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Household Type
The table on the following pages shows household type trends in Carver County and its submar-
kets compared to the Twin Cities Metro in 2010 and 2023. Data for 2010 is obtained from the
Decennial Census, while the 2023 data is based on the 2017-2021 American Community Survey
and adjusted by Maxfield Research to reflect 2023 household estimates. Shifting household
types can stimulate demand for a variety of housing products.
- Married couple family households typically generate demand for single-family detached
ownership housing.
- Married couples without children often desire multifamily housing for convenience rea-
sons. Married couple families without children are generally made up of younger cou-
ples that have not had children (and may not have children) and older couples with
adult children that have moved out of the home.
- Other family households, defined as a male or female householder with no spouse pre-
sent (typically single-parent households), often require affordable housing.
- Changes in non-family households (households living alone and households composed
of unrelated roommates) drive demand for rental housing.
• In Carver County, married couple without children households are the most common
household type in 2023 (32.3% of all households), followed closely by married couple
households with children (30.7%). Single-person households are the most common house-
hold type in the Metro Area (28.9%), followed by married couples without children (27.2%).
• The number of family households in Carver County increased nearly 26% between 2010 and
2023 (6,222 households), compared to 12% growth in the Metro Area. Nonfamily house-
holds increased 24% in the County (2,070 households) and 15% in the Metro Area
21%
20%
29%
29%
5%
6%
8%
8%
34%
31%
23%
21%
29%
32%
26%
27%
11%
11%
15%
14%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver Co '10
Carver Co '23
Metro Area '10
Metro Area '23
Household Type Comparison
2010 to 2023
Living Alone Roommates Married w/ Child Married w/o Child Other Family
65
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 13
2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
Total Households 1,983 3,122 8,352 9,790 8,816 10,773
Non-Family Households 374 691 2,095 2,362 2,628 3,638
Living Alone 271 526 1,718 1,822 2,110 2,762
Other (Roommates)103 165 377 539 518 876
Family Households 1,609 2,431 6,257 7,428 6,188 7,135
Married w/ Children 778 1,220 3,024 2,754 2,698 3,072
Married w/o Children 643 954 2,481 3,580 2,114 2,398
Other Family 188 256 752 1,094 1,376 1,666
Change (2010 - 2023)No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Households 1,139 57.4%1,438 17.2%1,957 22.2%
Non-Family Households 317 84.8%267 12.7%1,010 38.4%
Living Alone 255 94.0%104 6.1%652 30.9%
Other (Roommates)62 60.6%162 43.0%358 69.0%
Family Households 822 51.1%1,171 18.7%947 15.3%
Married w/ Children 442 56.9%-270 -8.9%374 13.8%
Married w/o Children 311 48.4%1,099 44.3%284 13.4%
Other Family 68 36.2%342 45.5%290 21.0%
2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
Total Households 963 1,178 1,856 2,166 1,451 1,796
Non-Family Households 237 294 541 638 316 399
Living Alone 187 251 438 470 246 322
Other (Roommates)50 43 103 169 70 78
Family Households 726 884 1,315 1,528 1,135 1,397
Married w/ Children 313 336 444 532 507 568
Married w/o Children 327 483 613 806 496 642
Other Family 86 65 258 190 132 187
Change (2010 - 2023)No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Households 215 22.3%310 16.7%345 23.8%
Non-Family Households 57 24.2%97 18.0%83 26.4%
Living Alone 64 34.4%32 7.3%76 30.8%
Other (Roommates)-7 -14.3%66 63.6%8 10.8%
Family Households 158 21.7%213 16.2%262 23.0%
Married w/ Children 23 7.4%88 19.8%61 12.1%
Married w/o Children 156 47.7%193 31.4%146 29.4%
Other Family -21 -24.7%-68 -26.3%55 41.4%
Carver Chanhassen Chaska
Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.
2010 & 2023
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
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2010 2023 2010 2023 2010 2023
Total Households 3,095 4,604 4,343 5,430 2,032 2,324
Non-Family Households 497 553 1,231 1,449 594 496
Living Alone 385 452 1,057 1,224 481 360
Other (Roommates)112 101 174 225 113 136
Family Households 2,598 4,051 3,112 3,981 1,438 1,828
Married w/ Children 1,272 1,749 1,600 1,899 594 573
Married w/o Children 1,085 2,029 1,079 1,500 613 950
Other Family 241 273 433 582 231 306
Change (2010 - 2023)No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Households 1,509 48.8%1,087 25.0%292 14.4%
Non-Family Households 56 11.3%218 17.7%-98 -16.6%
Living Alone 67 17.5%167 15.8%-121 -25.2%
Other (Roommates)-11 -9.7%51 29.4%23 20.3%
Family Households 1,453 55.9%869 27.9%390 27.1%
Married w/ Children 477 37.5%299 18.7%-21 -3.5%
Married w/o Children 944 87.0%421 39.1%337 54.9%
Other Family 32 13.2%149 34.3%75 32.3%
2010 2023 2010 2023
Total Households 32,891 41,183 1,117,749 1,266,716
Non-Family Households 8,513 10,583 410,253 472,104
Living Alone 6,893 8,242 319,030 366,673
Other (Roommates)1,620 2,341 91,223 105,431
Family Households 24,378 30,600 707,496 794,612
Married w/ Children 11,230 12,654 252,934 272,092
Married w/o Children 9,451 13,296 290,476 344,895
Other Family 3,697 4,650 164,086 177,625
Change (2010 - 2023)No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Households 8,292 25.2%148,967 13.3%
Non-Family Households 2,070 24.3%61,851 15.1%
Living Alone 1,349 19.6%47,643 14.9%
Other (Roommates)721 44.5%14,208 15.6%
Family Households 6,222 25.5%87,116 12.3%
Married w/ Children 1,424 12.7%19,158 7.6%
Married w/o Children 3,845 40.7%54,419 18.7%
Other Family 953 25.8%13,539 8.3%
Sources: U.S. Census; 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Victoria Waconia Watertown
Carver County Metro Area
2010 & 2023
TABLE continued
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
67
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• Married couple households without children are the most common household type in the
Chanhassen (36.6%), Cologne (41.0%), Hamburg-Norwood Young America (36.6%), Mayer-
New Germany (35.7%), Victoria (44.1%), and Watertown (40.9%) Submarkets. Married cou-
ple with children households are most common in the Carver (39.1%), Chaska (28.5%), and
Waconia (35.0%) Submarkets.
• The largest household type shift occurred in the Watertown Submarket, as the proportion
of family households increased 7.9% from 70.8% of all households in 2010 to 78.7% of all
households in 2023, with the proportion of married couple without children households
climbing 10.7% to 40.9% of all households. Other substantial shifts are summarized below.
- The Victoria Submarket experienced a sizable increase in the proportion of family
households, climbing 4.0% to 88.0% of all households in 202 3, most notably the propor-
tion of married couples without children increased 9.0% to 44.1% of all households .
- The Chaska Submarket experienced a 4.0% increase in the proportion of non -family
households to 33.8% of all households in 2023.
- The proportion of non-family households in the Carver Submarket increased 3.3% to
22.1% of all households in 2023, most notably single-person households as the propor-
tion increased 3.2% to 16.8% of all households.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver '10
Carver '23
Chanhassen '10
Chanhassen '23
Chaska '10
Chaska '23
Cologne '10
Cologne '23
Hamburg-NYA '10
Hamburg-NYA '23
Mayer-NG '10
Mayer-NG '23
Victoria '10
Victoria '23
Waconia '10
Waconia '23
Watertown '10
Watertown '23
Household Type Comparison by Submarket
2010 to 2023
Living Alone Roommates Married w/ Child Married w/o Child Other Family
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Race and Ethnicity
The table on the following pages displays the breakdown of the Market Area population by race
and ethnicity. This data is useful in that it illustrates shifts in the demographic characteristics of
the Market Area population from 2010 to 2023. Information for 2010 is obtained from the D e-
cennial Census, while the 2023 data is sourced from ESRI and adjusted by Maxfield Research to
reflect current population estimates.
Federal standards mandate that race and ethnicity are separate and distinct identities and Cen-
sus results are based on self-identification. A person may be categorized as one of two ethnic
categories; “Hispanic or Latino” origin or “Not Hispanic or Latino.” In addition, a person can
self-identify as having one or more racial identity, including “White,” “Black or African Ameri-
can,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian,” and “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Is-
lander.” Respondents could also identify as being “Some Other Race.”
• In 2023, “White Alone” comprises the largest proportion of Carver County’s population, at
an estimated 86% compared to 69% in the Metro Area. In the County, people identified as
Two or More Races and Asian Alone were the second and third most populous groups with
6,520 people (6%) and 4,081 people (4%), respectively.
• Based on ESRI’s estimates, all races experienced population growth between 2010 and 2023
in Carver County. As depicted below, population growth was largest among White Alone,
expanding by 13,020 people, followed by growth among individuals identified as Two or
More Races (5,084 people) and Asian Alone (1,603 people).
• In the Metro Area, population growth occurred among all races except for White Alone,
which contracted -1.4%. Largest growth occurred among people identified as Two or More
Races, followed by Some Other Race Alone, Black Alone, and Asian Alone.
White Alone,
13,020Black Alone,
1,195
American Indian
Alone, 108
Asian Alone,
1,603
Pacific Islander
Alone, 6
Some Other Race
Alone, 1,481 Two or More
Races, 5,084
Carver County Population Growth by Race
2010 -2023
69
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
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TABLE 14
Submarket
Race/Ethnicity No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver
White Alone 5,473 93.0%8,107 85.8%2,634 48.1%
Black Alone 39 0.7%197 2.1%158 404.6%
American Indian Alone 13 0.2%9 0.1%-4 -27.5%
Asian Alone 241 4.1%436 4.6%195 80.7%
Pacific Islander Alone 0 0.0%4 0.0%4 --
Some Other Race Alone 26 0.4%143 1.5%117 451.6%
Two or More Races 95 1.6%549 5.8%454 477.4%
Total 5,887 100%9,445 100%3,558 60.4%
Hispanic (ethnicity)96 1.6%363 3.8%267 278.4%
Chanhassen
White Alone 21,237 92.5%22,248 84.5%1,011 4.8%
Black Alone 254 1.1%361 1.4%107 42.0%
American Indian Alone 24 0.1%46 0.2%22 93.6%
Asian Alone 886 3.9%1,706 6.5%820 92.5%
Pacific Islander Alone 2 0.0%7 0.0%5 253.5%
Some Other Race Alone 198 0.9%387 1.5%189 95.4%
Two or More Races 350 1.5%1,584 6.0%1,234 352.5%
Total 22,952 100%26,340 100%3,388 14.8%
Hispanic (ethnicity)525 2.3%1,051 4.0%526 100.1%
Chaska
White Alone 20,951 88.1%22,488 78.3%1,538 7.3%
Black Alone 585 2.5%1,266 4.4%681 116.3%
American Indian Alone 96 0.4%150 0.5%54 55.8%
Asian Alone 866 3.6%1,182 4.1%316 36.5%
Pacific Islander Alone 7 0.0%8 0.0%1 13.6%
Some Other Race Alone 801 3.4%1,637 5.7%836 104.4%
Two or More Races 464 2.0%1,972 6.9%1,508 324.6%
Total 23,770 100%28,703 100%4,933 20.8%
Hispanic (ethnicity)2,012 8.5%2,941 10.2%929 46.2%
Cologne
White Alone 2,535 95.7%2,940 92.6%405 16.0%
Black Alone 25 0.9%32 1.0%7 28.3%
American Indian Alone 1 0.0%3 0.1%2 200.7%
Asian Alone 26 1.0%25 0.8%-1 -3.6%
Pacific Islander Alone 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 --
Some Other Race Alone 28 1.1%37 1.2%9 32.4%
Two or More Races 35 1.3%138 4.4%103 295.2%
Total 2,650 100%3,176 100%526 19.8%
Hispanic (ethnicity)76 2.9%103 3.3%27 35.8%
2010-2023
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE & ETHNICITY
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2030
Change
2010 2023
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Submarket
Race/Ethnicity No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Hamburg-Norwood Yound America
White Alone 4,568 95.6%4,939 90.6%371 8.1%
Black Alone 17 0.4%79 1.4%62 363.7%
American Indian Alone 8 0.2%29 0.5%21 267.9%
Asian Alone 25 0.5%30 0.6%5 21.9%
Pacific Islander Alone 1 0.0%1 0.0%0 5.1%
Some Other Race Alone 110 2.3%123 2.3%13 11.8%
Two or More Races 48 1.0%250 4.6%202 421.2%
Total 4,777 100%5,452 100%675 14.1%
Hispanic (ethnicity)185 3.9%296 5.4%111 60.2%
Mayer-New Germany
White Alone 3,948 96.7%4,784 92.7%836 21.2%
Black Alone 24 0.6%28 0.5%4 15.0%
American Indian Alone 5 0.1%5 0.1%0 6.4%
Asian Alone 46 1.1%58 1.1%12 26.8%
Pacific Islander Alone 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 --
Some Other Race Alone 19 0.5%68 1.3%50 269.7%
Two or More Races 43 1.0%217 4.2%174 405.6%
Total 4,084 100%5,160 100%1,076 26.3%
Hispanic (ethnicity)57 1.4%116 2.3%60 105.5%
Victoria
White Alone 9,109 95.0%12,552 90.5%3,443 37.8%
Black Alone 49 0.5%144 1.0%95 196.5%
American Indian Alone 10 0.1%14 0.1%4 44.3%
Asian Alone 228 2.4%390 2.8%162 71.0%
Pacific Islander Alone 1 0.0%0 0.0%-1 -100.0%
Some Other Race Alone 32 0.3%88 0.6%56 178.3%
Two or More Races 160 1.7%684 4.9%523 326.1%
Total 9,588 100%13,871 100%4,283 44.7%
Hispanic (ethnicity)184 1.9%364 2.6%181 98.4%
Waconia
White Alone 11,435 95.9%13,713 90.5%2,278 19.9%
Black Alone 113 1.0%128 0.8%15 13.4%
American Indian Alone 35 0.3%44 0.3%9 25.8%
Asian Alone 126 1.1%195 1.3%69 54.6%
Pacific Islander Alone 2 0.0%1 0.0%-1 -46.1%
Some Other Race Alone 79 0.7%219 1.4%140 176.8%
Two or More Races 135 1.1%846 5.6%712 528.0%
Total 11,925 100%15,147 100%3,222 27.0%
Hispanic (ethnicity)275 2.3%585 3.9%310 112.5%
---------- continued ----------
TABLE continued
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE & ETHNICITY
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2030
Change
2010 2023 2010-2023
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• The number of people self-identifying as being of Hispanic or Latino origin, which represents
5.3% of the population in Carver County, expanded 72% between 2010 and 2023 with the
addition of 2,528 people.
• In the Twin Cities Metro Area, people identifying as being Hispanic or Latino represents an
estimated 7.5% of the population after experiencing 45% growth between 2010 and 2023.
• The following chart illustrates the composition the 2023 population by race for each of
Carver County’s submarkets.
Submarket
Race/Ethnicity No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Watertown
White Alone 5,204 96.2%5,795 92.8%592 11.4%
Black Alone 14 0.3%59 0.9%44 309.5%
American Indian Alone 16 0.3%14 0.2%-3 -16.8%
Asian Alone 36 0.7%32 0.5%-3 -9.3%
Pacific Islander Alone 2 0.0%0 0.0%-2 -100.0%
Some Other Race Alone 31 0.6%78 1.3%48 155.9%
Two or More Races 106 2.0%267 4.3%160 151.0%
Total 5,409 100%6,245 100%836 15.5%
Hispanic (ethnicity)89 1.6%176 2.8%87 97.7%
Carver County
White Alone 84,450 92.8%97,469 85.8%13,020 15.4%
Black Alone 1,124 1.2%2,319 2.0%1,195 106.3%
American Indian Alone 208 0.2%316 0.3%108 51.9%
Asian Alone 2,478 2.7%4,081 3.6%1,603 64.7%
Pacific Islander Alone 15 0.0%21 0.0%6 41.8%
Some Other Race Alone 1,331 1.5%2,812 2.5%1,481 111.2%
Two or More Races 1,436 1.6%6,520 5.7%5,084 354.0%
Total 91,042 100%113,538 100%22,496 24.7%
Hispanic (ethnicity)3,515 3.9%6,044 5.3%2,528 71.9%
Twin Cities Metro Area
White Alone 2,246,356 78.8%2,215,965 68.7%-30,391 -1.4%
Black Alone 238,723 8.4%357,877 11.1%119,154 49.9%
American Indian Alone 20,906 0.7%25,252 0.8%4,346 20.8%
Asian Alone 183,421 6.4%273,027 8.5%89,606 48.9%
Pacific Islander Alone 1,262 0.0%1,490 0.0%228 18.1%
Some Other Race Alone 74,516 2.6%122,961 3.8%48,445 65.0%
Two or More Races 84,383 3.0%229,568 7.1%145,185 172.1%
Total 2,849,567 100%3,226,140 100%376,573 13.2%
Hispanic (ethnicity)167,558 5.9%242,801 7.5%75,243 44.9%
Sources: U.S. Census; ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE & ETHNICITY
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2030
Change
2010 2023 2010-2023
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• As shown above, White Alone represents the largest proportion of the population in all sub-
markets, ranging from 78% of the population in Chaska to 93% in the Cologne, Mayer-New
Germany, and Watertown Submarkets.
• The proportion of people self-identifying as being of Hispanic or Latino origin ranges from
2.3% of the population in the Mayer-New Germany Submarket to 10.2% in Chaska.
• Based on 2017-2021 American Community Survey estimates, approximately 84% of White
Alone households in Carver County own their housing while the remaining 16% rent. The
home ownership rate declines to 57% for all other races in the County, ranging from 33% of
Some Other Race Alone and 36% of Black Alone households to 97% of Asian Alone and
100% of Pacific Islander households.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver County Population by Race and Submarket
2023
White Alone
Black Alone
American Indian Alone
Asian Alone
Pacific Islander Alone
Some Other Race Alone
Two or More Races
84%
36%
62%
97%
100%
33%
49%
83%
81%
0%20%40%60%80%100%120%
White Alone
Black Alone
American Indian Alone
Asian Alone
Pacific Islander Alone
Some Other Race Alone
Two or More Races
Not Hispanic
Hispanic
Carver County Homeownership Rate by Race/Ethnicity
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Resident Mobility
The table on the following pages shows mobility patterns of County residents within a one-year
timeframe. Data for 2023 is based on the 2017-2021 American Community Survey and ad-
justed by Maxfield Research to reflect 2023 population estimates. People move for various rea-
sons, but housing is a primary motivator, followed by family-related reasons, and job-related
reasons. Local moves are generally housing-related, while longer-distance moves are often job-
related.
• The majority of residents in Carver County (91%) did not change residences, while 9%
moved within a one-year time period of the ACS Survey.
• As depicted in the following graph, resident mobility was greatest in the Victoria (12%
moved in past year) and Mayer-New Germany (10%) Submarkets and lowest in the Carver
(6%) and Hamburg-Norwood Young America (7%) Submarkets.
• Among the residents that moved, most moved within Minnesota, but from a different
County (4.8% of all residents), while 3.2% moved from within Carver County and 0.8%
moved from a different State. Another 0.3% moved to the County from abroad.
• Renter households and younger households tend to be more highly mobile than owner
households and older households. This trend is evident in Carver County, as 22% of the res-
idents that moved within the one-year time period were in the 25 to 34 age group, 21%
were under age 18, and 16% were in the 18 to 24 age group.
94%
91%
91%
91%
93%
90%
88%
92%
91%
6%
9%
9%
9%
7%
10%
12%
8%
9%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver County Resident Mobility by Submarket
Percent Moved in Past Year
Not Moved Moved
74
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 65
TABLE 15
Age
Carver County No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 27,011 23.8%1,068 0.9%906 0.8%127 0.1%113 0.1%
18 to 24 7,537 6.6%432 0.4%950 0.8%264 0.2%13 0.0%
25 to 34 9,836 8.7%572 0.5%1,396 1.2%312 0.3%26 0.0%
35 to 44 15,485 13.6%683 0.6%710 0.6%63 0.1%13 0.0%
45 to 54 15,336 13.5%359 0.3%524 0.5%65 0.1%23 0.0%
55 to 64 14,779 13.0%243 0.2%380 0.3%81 0.1%0 0.0%
65 to 74 8,167 7.2%145 0.1%409 0.4%28 0.0%49 0.0%
75+4,975 4.4%161 0.1%212 0.2%0 0.0%86 0.1%
Total 103,126 90.8%3,663 3.2%5,487 4.8%940 0.8%322 0.3%
Carver No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 2,422 25.6%37 0.4%4 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
18 to 24 727 7.7%4 0.0%34 0.4%8 0.1%0 0.0%
25 to 34 737 7.8%78 0.8%112 1.2%37 0.4%0 0.0%
35 to 44 1,536 16.3%79 0.8%5 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%
45 to 54 1,223 13.0%13 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
55 to 64 1,295 13.7%70 0.7%6 0.1%13 0.1%0 0.0%
65 to 74 633 6.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+313 3.3%3 0.0%56 0.6%0 0.0%1 0.0%
Total 8,886 94.1%283 3.0%218 2.3%57 0.6%1 0.0%
Chanhassen No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 6,171 23.4%173 0.7%238 0.9%68 0.3%54 0.2%
18 to 24 1,615 6.1%71 0.3%216 0.8%97 0.4%0 0.0%
25 to 34 2,119 8.0%97 0.4%287 1.1%146 0.6%5 0.0%
35 to 44 3,271 12.4%50 0.2%193 0.7%20 0.1%12 0.0%
45 to 54 3,324 12.6%49 0.2%236 0.9%17 0.1%19 0.1%
55 to 64 4,064 15.4%67 0.3%91 0.3%24 0.1%0 0.0%
65 to 74 2,170 8.2%0 0.0%21 0.1%23 0.1%41 0.2%
75+1,166 4.4%12 0.0%46 0.2%0 0.0%68 0.3%
Total 23,900 90.7%519 2.0%1,327 5.0%394 1.5%200 0.8%
Chaska No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 7,093 24.7%346 1.2%153 0.5%0 0.0%0 0.0%
18 to 24 1,992 6.9%186 0.6%160 0.6%40 0.1%5 0.0%
25 to 34 2,452 8.5%146 0.5%510 1.8%31 0.1%20 0.1%
35 to 44 4,113 14.3%291 1.0%98 0.3%17 0.1%0 0.0%
45 to 54 4,088 14.2%118 0.4%55 0.2%16 0.1%0 0.0%
55 to 64 3,356 11.7%40 0.1%170 0.6%20 0.1%0 0.0%
65 to 74 1,655 5.8%11 0.0%206 0.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+1,276 4.4%19 0.1%22 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Total 26,023 90.7%1,157 4.0%1,374 4.8%124 0.4%25 0.1%
---------- continued ----------
Not Moved Within Same
County
Different County,
Same State
Different
State Abroad
RESIDENT MOBILITY IN PAST YEAR BY AGE GROUP
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023
---------- Moved from ----------
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Age
Cologne No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 663 20.9%81 2.5%16 0.5%9 0.3%1 0.0%
18 to 24 130 4.1%6 0.2%25 0.8%3 0.1%0 0.0%
25 to 34 305 9.6%17 0.5%37 1.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%
35 to 44 352 11.1%32 1.0%20 0.6%10 0.3%0 0.0%
45 to 54 443 13.9%3 0.1%21 0.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%
55 to 64 596 18.8%4 0.1%5 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%
65 to 74 263 8.3%7 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+128 4.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Total 2,881 90.7%150 4.7%123 3.9%22 0.7%1 0.0%
Hamburg-NYA No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 1,196 21.9%19 0.4%43 0.8%0 0.0%0 0.0%
18 to 24 411 7.5%6 0.1%81 1.5%0 0.0%0 0.0%
25 to 34 584 10.7%56 1.0%23 0.4%0 0.0%0 0.0%
35 to 44 841 15.4%2 0.0%21 0.4%0 0.0%0 0.0%
45 to 54 643 11.8%5 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
55 to 64 636 11.7%6 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
65 to 74 398 7.3%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%5 0.1%
75+376 6.9%93 1.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%4 0.1%
Total 5,086 93.3%189 3.5%167 3.1%0 0.0%10 0.2%
Mayer-New Germ.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 1,169 22.7%15 0.3%81 1.6%10 0.2%15 0.3%
18 to 24 311 6.0%34 0.7%26 0.5%3 0.1%0 0.0%
25 to 34 582 11.3%32 0.6%49 1.0%19 0.4%0 0.0%
35 to 44 792 15.4%19 0.4%115 2.2%3 0.1%0 0.0%
45 to 54 587 11.4%4 0.1%17 0.3%0 0.0%3 0.1%
55 to 64 663 12.9%21 0.4%32 0.6%0 0.0%0 0.0%
65 to 74 379 7.3%10 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+155 3.0%9 0.2%3 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Total 4,640 89.9%143 2.8%323 6.3%35 0.7%19 0.4%
Victoria No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 2,864 20.6%320 2.3%145 1.0%27 0.2%0 0.0%
18 to 24 1,210 8.7%37 0.3%183 1.3%76 0.5%8 0.1%
25 to 34 998 7.2%87 0.6%84 0.6%71 0.5%0 0.0%
35 to 44 1,753 12.6%165 1.2%123 0.9%0 0.0%0 0.0%
45 to 54 2,096 15.1%77 0.6%113 0.8%21 0.2%0 0.0%
55 to 64 1,537 11.1%30 0.2%56 0.4%0 0.0%0 0.0%
65 to 74 1,267 9.1%29 0.2%79 0.6%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+413 3.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Total 12,140 87.5%745 5.4%783 5.6%195 1.4%8 0.1%
---------- continued ----------
Not Moved Within Same
County
Different County,
Same State
Different
State Abroad
TABLE continued
RESIDENT MOBILITY IN PAST YEAR BY AGE GROUP
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023
---------- Moved from ----------
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Age
Waconia No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 4,109 27.1%57 0.4%94 0.6%0 0.0%41 0.3%
18 to 24 594 3.9%44 0.3%155 1.0%27 0.2%0 0.0%
25 to 34 1,313 8.7%50 0.3%292 1.9%9 0.1%0 0.0%
35 to 44 2,210 14.6%51 0.3%56 0.4%0 0.0%0 0.0%
45 to 54 2,149 14.2%62 0.4%46 0.3%0 0.0%0 0.0%
55 to 64 1,563 10.3%11 0.1%0 0.0%26 0.2%0 0.0%
65 to 74 977 6.5%70 0.5%81 0.5%0 0.0%0 0.0%
75+985 6.5%4 0.0%70 0.5%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Total 13,900 91.8%350 2.3%794 5.2%62 0.4%41 0.3%
Watertown No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 1,354 21.7%14 0.2%125 2.0%10 0.2%0 0.0%
18 to 24 574 9.2%38 0.6%68 1.1%9 0.1%0 0.0%
25 to 34 731 11.7%15 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
35 to 44 672 10.8%0 0.0%73 1.2%11 0.2%0 0.0%
45 to 54 790 12.7%29 0.5%27 0.4%11 0.2%0 0.0%
55 to 64 1,016 16.3%0 0.0%13 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%
65 to 74 418 6.7%21 0.3%22 0.3%4 0.1%0 0.0%
75+149 2.4%20 0.3%22 0.3%0 0.0%9 0.1%
Total 5,705 91.4%137 2.2%350 5.6%45 0.7%9 0.1%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
RESIDENT MOBILITY IN PAST YEAR BY AGE GROUP
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023
---------- Moved from ----------
Not Moved Within Same
County
Different County,
Same State
Different
State Abroad
77
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 68
Employment Trends
Introduction
Employment characteristics are relevant when evaluating housing needs in any given market
area as employment growth often fuels household growth. Typically, households prefer to live
near work for convenience, which is a primary factor in choosing a housing location. Many
households, however, choose to commute greater distances to work provided their housing is
affordable enough to offset the additional transportation costs. In many areas, particularly less
densely populated areas, people will choose to live further from their place of work because
they prefer a rural lifestyle (i.e. they want to live on a wooded lot or be near a body of water) or
suitable housing may not be available in their employer’s community.
This section of the report evaluates employment trends and characteristics in Carver County
and its submarkets as they relate to housing demand in the County, with select comparisons
made to the seven-county Twin Cities Metro Area. The following topics are reviewed.
Labor force, resident employment, and unemployment trends
Commuting patterns
Job growth trends and projections
Employment and average wages by industry sector
Major employers
The Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) is the primary
data resource for this section of the market study. Other information sources include the Met-
ropolitan Council, the United Stated Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the United States Census
Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. Additionally, Maxfield Re-
search and Consulting, LLC researched General Obligation Bond Official Statements via the Mu-
nicipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) Electronic Municipal Market Access (EMMA) to ob-
tain information on major employers in the communities located in Carver County.
78
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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Resident Employment
The following table shows information on the labor force, resident employment, and unem-
ployment in Chanhassen and Carver County compared to the Metro Area. Data is sourced from
DEED. City-level resident employment data is only available for large cities in Minnesota, so in-
formation specific to the Carver County submarkets, except for Chanhassen, is not provided.
Resident employment data reveals the workforce and number of employed people living in the
area. It is important to note that not all of these individuals necessarily work in the area.
TABLE 16
• In 2022, Carver County had an annual labor force of 59,251 with 57,973 employed resi-
dents, which equates to a 2.2% unemployment rate. By comparison, Metro Area unemploy-
ment was at 2.5%.
- Chanhassen had a labor force of 14,500 in 2022 with a 1.9% unemployment rate (14,222
employed residents), while the Remainder of Carver County had a labor force of 44,751
with a 2.2% unemployment rate (43,751 employed residents).
• Carver County’s labor force expanded 14.8% between 2010 and 2022 (7,630), while resident
employment increased 20.4% (9,825), compared to 7.8% labor force growth and 13.2% resi-
dent employment growth in the Twin Cities Metro Area.
- Chanhassen’s labor force increased 13.9% against 18.9% resident employment growth,
while the Remainder of the County experienced 15.1% labor force growth and 20.9%
resident employment growth.
Year
Labor
Force
Employed
Residents
UE
Rate
Labor
Force
Employed
Residents
UE
Rate
Labor
Force
Employed
Residents
UE
Rate
2022 14,500 14,222 1.9%59,251 57,973 2.2%1,717,199 1,674,601 2.5%
2021 14,200 13,819 2.7%58,099 56,330 3.0%1,688,645 1,625,275 3.8%
2020 14,702 13,950 5.1%60,002 56,862 5.2%1,749,292 1,636,317 6.5%
2019 14,688 14,321 2.5%59,566 57,911 2.8%1,734,928 1,684,949 2.9%
2018 14,235 13,882 2.5%58,350 56,873 2.5%1,714,156 1,668,797 2.6%
2017 14,203 13,796 2.9%57,678 55,976 3.0%1,706,940 1,653,641 3.1%
2016 14,054 13,618 3.1%56,292 54,436 3.3%1,669,746 1,612,583 3.4%
2015 13,859 13,451 2.9%55,301 53,510 3.2%1,653,838 1,597,310 3.4%
2014 13,697 13,233 3.4%54,396 52,377 3.7%1,642,460 1,577,850 3.9%
2013 13,460 12,907 4.1%53,369 51,033 4.4%1,626,969 1,550,140 4.7%
2012 13,131 12,544 4.5%52,484 49,934 4.9%1,611,797 1,524,778 5.4%
2011 12,885 12,263 4.8%52,236 49,344 5.5%1,606,856 1,506,887 6.2%
2010 12,728 11,957 6.1%51,621 48,148 6.7%1,593,385 1,479,385 7.2%
Sources: Minnesota DEED; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
LABOR FORCE AND RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 through 2022
Chanhassen Carver County Twin Cities Metro Area
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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• Because resident employment growth has outpaced labor force growth, unemployment
rates dropped substantially across the Market Area. Carver County’s unemployment rate
decreased from 6.7% in 2010 to 1.9% in 2022, while unemployment in the Metro Area con-
tracted from 7.2% to 2.5%.
• Carver County’s labor force increased at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2010 through
2019 before flattening to 0.7% in 2020 and declining -3.2% in 2021. Resident employment
in the County experienced 2.1% average annual growth from 2010 through 2021, before de-
clining -1.8% in 2020 and -0.9% in 2021.
• Labor force and resident employment contraction in 2020 and 2021 was related to the
COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession.
• Labor force and resident employment are both recovering, as the labor force increased
2.0% during 2022 in Carver County against a 2.9% increase in resident employment. By
comparison, the Metro Area’s labor force and resident employment expanded 1.7% and
3.0% during 2022, respectively.
- Chanhassen’s labor force increased 2.1% against 2.9% resident employment growth in
2022, while the Remainder of the County experienced 1.9% labor force growth and 2.9%
resident employment growth over the year.
• Due to the number of job losses related to the pandemic, unemployment rates increased
dramatically during the first half of 2020, peaking at 9.6% in Chanhassen and 9.4% in Carver
County, compared to peaks of 11.9% in the Metro Area and 14.4% nationally.
45,000
47,500
50,000
52,500
55,000
57,500
60,000
62,500
65,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Labor Force vs. Employment Growth
Carver County
Labor Force Employment
80
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 71
• Unemployment rates have since declined after spiking during the spring of 2020, decreasing
to 2.4% in Chanhassen, 2.4% in Carver County, and 2.7% in the Metro Area as of September
2023.
• Decreasing labor force participation has contributed to the declining unemployment rates.
In Minnesota, the labor force participation rate declined to a low of 67.0% in March 2021,
the lowest participation rate since March 1977 (66.8%). The labor force participation rate
was at 68.5% as of October 2023 in Minnesota compared to 62.7% nationally.
• The decline is due to several factors, notably an aging population but also by workers being
forced out of the labor market, children needing to attend school from home, and increased
unemployment benefits, among others.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Carver County
Monthly Changes to Labor Force and Employment
Unemployment Rate Labor Force Employment
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
Jan-00Apr-01Jul-02Oct-03Jan-05Apr-06Jul-07Oct-08Jan-10Apr-11Jul-12Oct-13Jan-15Apr-16Jul-17Oct-18Jan-20Apr-21Jul-22Oct-23Labor Force Participation Rate for Minnesota
2000 -2023 ytd
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics;
fred.stlouisfed.org
81
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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Commuting Patterns
Proximity to employment is often a primary consideration when choosing where to live, partic-
ularly for lower income households since transportation costs often account for a greater pro-
portion of their budgets. For this analysis, we reviewed commuting pat terns in each of the nine
submarkets in Carver County.
The table on the following pages summarizes the inflow and outflow characteristics of the
workers in each community. Data is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Em-
ployer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program for 2021, the most recent data available. Outflow
reflects the number of workers living in the area but employed outside the community, while
inflow measures the number of workers that are employed in the community but live outside
the area. Interior flow reflects the number of workers that live and work in the community.
• Overall, Carver County is an exporter of workers as a higher number of residents leave the
County for work than nonresidents commute into the County.
- Approximately 21,969 workers come into Carver County for employment daily (inflow),
while 40,112 resident workers commute out of the County (outflow). An estimated
12,433 people both live and work in the County (interior flow).
• Of the County residents leaving Carver County for employment, over 10% (5,316) commute
to Minneapolis and another 10% (5,189) commute to Eden Prairie.
• As depicted in the following graph, except for the Chanhassen submarket, the remaining
submarkets all export more workers (outflow) than they import (inflow).
-15,000-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-New Germany
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Worker Inflow/Outflow by
Carver County Submarket
Outflow
Inflow
Interior Flow
82
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 73
TABLE 17
Carver - Primary Jobs 3,646 100%590 100%125 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 654 17.9%185 31.4%34 27.2%
Aged 30 to 54 2,189 60.0%303 51.4%58 46.4%
Aged 55 or older 803 22.0%102 17.3%33 26.4%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 413 11.3%146 24.7%31 24.8%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 530 14.5%208 35.3%42 33.6%
More than $3,333/month 2,703 74.1%236 40.0%52 41.6%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"752 20.6%75 12.7%31 24.8%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"617 16.9%76 12.9%17 13.6%
"All Other Services"*2,277 62.5%439 74.4%77 61.6%
Chanhassen - Primary Jobs 11,472 100%20,584 100%1,402 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 1,947 17.0%5,487 26.7%414 29.5%
Aged 30 to 54 6,369 55.5%10,126 49.2%547 39.0%
Aged 55 or older 3,156 27.5%4,971 24.1%441 31.5%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 1,257 11.0%3,776 18.3%363 25.9%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 1,642 14.3%4,765 23.1%326 23.3%
More than $3,333/month 8,573 74.7%12,043 58.5%713 50.9%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"1,487 13.0%4,805 23.3%243 17.3%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"1,876 16.4%2,890 14.0%347 24.8%
"All Other Services"*8,109 70.7%12,889 62.6%812 57.9%
Chaska - Primary Jobs 12,166 100%9,465 100%1,577 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 2,485 20.4%1,713 18.1%322 20.4%
Aged 30 to 54 6,821 56.1%5,408 57.1%745 47.2%
Aged 55 or older 2,860 23.5%2,344 24.8%510 32.3%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 1,503 12.4%817 8.6%273 17.3%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 2,268 18.6%1,436 15.2%366 23.2%
More than $3,333/month 8,395 69.0%7,212 76.2%938 59.5%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"1,968 16.2%4,858 51.3%533 33.8%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"2,182 17.9%675 7.1%127 8.1%
"All Other Services"*8,016 65.9%3,932 41.5%917 58.1%
--------------- continued ---------------
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
Outflow Inflow Interior Flow
83
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 74
Cologne - Primary Jobs 1,544 100%725 100%115 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 296 19.2%130 17.9%24 20.9%
Aged 30 to 54 908 58.8%408 56.3%56 48.7%
Aged 55 or older 340 22.0%187 25.8%35 30.4%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 161 10.4%73 10.1%21 18.3%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 235 15.2%98 13.5%47 40.9%
More than $3,333/month 1,148 74.4%554 76.4%47 40.9%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"417 27.0%512 70.6%46 40.0%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"295 19.1%51 7.0%34 29.6%
"All Other Services"*832 53.9%162 22.3%35 30.4%
Hamburg-NYA - Primary Jobs 2,044 100%596 100%243 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 407 19.9%176 29.5%69 28.4%
Aged 30 to 54 1,137 55.6%290 48.7%103 42.4%
Aged 55 or older 500 24.5%130 21.8%71 29.2%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 225 11.0%120 20.1%86 35.4%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 472 23.1%133 22.3%60 24.7%
More than $3,333/month 1,347 65.9%343 57.6%97 39.9%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"585 28.6%188 31.5%58 23.9%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"452 22.1%125 21.0%60 24.7%
"All Other Services"*1,007 49.3%283 47.5%125 51.4%
Mayer-New Germany - Primary Jobs 2,345 100%366 100%105 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 505 21.5%137 37.4%30 28.6%
Aged 30 to 54 1,305 55.7%172 47.0%44 41.9%
Aged 55 or older 535 22.8%57 15.6%31 29.5%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 283 12.1%92 25.1%25 23.8%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 482 20.6%90 24.6%39 37.1%
More than $3,333/month 1,580 67.4%184 50.3%41 39.0%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"595 25.4%181 49.5%49 46.7%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"473 20.2%44 12.0%21 20.0%
"All Other Services"*1,277 54.5%141 38.5%35 33.3%
TABLE continued
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
Outflow Inflow Interior Flow
--------------- continued ---------------
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Victoria - Primary Jobs 5,756 100%1,284 100%217 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 991 17.2%336 26.2%62 28.6%
Aged 30 to 54 3,456 60.0%694 54.0%105 48.4%
Aged 55 or older 1,309 22.7%254 19.8%50 23.0%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 722 12.5%253 19.7%80 36.9%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 709 12.3%263 20.5%32 14.7%
More than $3,333/month 4,325 75.1%768 59.8%105 48.4%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"892 15.5%265 20.6%19 8.8%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"1,062 18.5%153 11.9%40 18.4%
"All Other Services"*3,802 66.1%866 67.4%158 72.8%
Waconia - Primary Jobs 5,739 100%3,932 100%1,253 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 1,062 18.5%1,119 28.5%423 33.8%
Aged 30 to 54 3,486 60.7%1,922 48.9%547 43.7%
Aged 55 or older 1,191 20.8%891 22.7%283 22.6%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 621 10.8%773 19.7%428 34.2%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 938 16.3%1,032 26.2%359 28.7%
More than $3,333/month 4,180 72.8%2,127 54.1%466 37.2%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"1,103 19.2%996 25.3%204 16.3%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"1,046 18.2%650 16.5%200 16.0%
"All Other Services"*3,590 62.6%2,286 58.1%849 67.8%
Watertown - Primary Jobs 2,506 100%684 100%289 100%
Workers by Age
Aged 29 or younger 558 22.3%209 30.6%104 36.0%
Aged 30 to 54 1,347 53.8%316 46.2%111 38.4%
Aged 55 or older 601 24.0%159 23.2%74 25.6%
Workers by Monthly Wage
$1,250/month or less 327 13.0%137 20.0%110 38.1%
$1,251 to $3,333/month 484 19.3%173 25.3%89 30.8%
More than $3,333/month 1,695 67.6%374 54.7%90 31.1%
Workers by Industry
"Goods Producing"599 23.9%226 33.0%48 16.6%
"Trade, Transportation, & Utilities"454 18.1%97 14.2%40 13.8%
"All Other Services"*1,453 58.0%361 52.8%201 69.6%
Sources: US Census Bureau LEHD; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
*includes the following sectors: Information, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services,
Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality, Other Services, and Public Administration
TABLE continued
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
Outflow Inflow Interior Flow
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• The Chanhassen and Chaska Submarkets are, by far, the largest exporters of workers in the
County, with outflow of 11,472 and 12,166 workers, respectively, followed by the Victoria
(exports 5,756 workers) and Waconia (exports 5,739 workers) Submarkets.
• Chanhassen experiences the largest inflow, importing 20,584 workers, followed by the
Chaska (inflow of 9,465 workers) and Waconia (imports 3,932 workers) Submarkets.
• Interior flow is largest in the Chaska (1,577 workers), Chanhassen (1,402), and Waconia
(1,253 workers) Submarkets.
• Roughly 64% of the jobs in Carver County are filled by workers commuting into the area.
The highest proportion of workers coming into the County are aged 30 to 54 and earn more
than $3,333 per month ($40,000 per year). The “All Other Services” sector brings in most of
the employees (46%), followed by “Goods Producing” industries (39%).
• With 21,969 workers commuting into Carver County for employment daily, including 1,642
workers that commute from over 50 miles, there appears to be an opportunity to provide
housing options for a portion of these workers.
• The following summarizes the number of jobs that are filled by workers commuting into
each submarket (inflow) in Carver County.
- Carver: 83% of jobs in the submarket filled by inflow (590 workers)
- Chanhassen: 94% of jobs filled by inflow (20,584 workers)
- Chaska: 86% of jobs filled by inflow (9,465 workers)
- Cologne: 86% of jobs filled by inflow (725 workers)
- Hamburg – Norwood Young America: 71% of jobs filled by inflow (596 workers)
- Mayer – New Germany: 78% of jobs filled by inflow (366 workers)
- Victoria: 86% of jobs filled by inflow (1,284 workers)
- Waconia: 76% of jobs filled by inflow (3,932 workers)
- Watertown: 70% of jobs filled by inflow (684 workers)
• On a percentage basis, inflow ranges from 70% of jobs in Watertown to 94% in Chanhassen.
Based on the number of workers commuting into the Submarket, inflow ranges from 366
workers in Mayer – New Germany to 20,584 workers in Chanhassen.
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• While data does not yet fully reflect impacts on commuting patterns post -pandemic, we an-
ticipate that with potential shifts in work locations long-term for some worker segments
(i.e. increased telecommuting) more people are likely to consider working remot ely which
would impact commuting patterns.
Carver County Commuting Patterns (Inflow/Outflow) by Submarket
Mayer
Victoria
New Germany
Hamburg
Chaska
Watertown
Cologne
Submarket
Mayer-New Germany
Submarket
Victoria
Submarket
Hamburg –NYA
Submarket
Watertown
Submarket
Carver
Submarket
Cologne
Norwood
Young America
Chanhassen
Carver
WaconiaWaconia
Submarket
Inflow (Employed in Area, Live Outside)
Outflow (Live in Area, Employed Outside)
Interior Flow (Employed and Live in Area)
289
1,402
125
1,577
115
243
105
217
1,253
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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The following tables highlight commuting patterns, including distance and destination, of work-
ers in Carver County, as well as each of the submarkets, based on U.S. Census Bureau LEHD data
for 2021, the most recent data available. Home Destination summarizes where workers live
who are employed in the area, while Work Destination represents where workers are employed
who live in the area.
• Roughly 64% of the workers employed in Carver County reside outside the County, while
36% (12,433) reside in Carver County.
• As summarized below, the largest proportion of workers with jobs in Carver County reside
in Chaska (8.9%), followed by Waconia (6.1%), Chanhassen (5.6%), Shakopee (4.9%), and
Eden Prairie (4.3%).
TABLE 18
• Of the 34,402 workers employed in Carver County, 45% commute less than ten miles to
their place of work, while 38% commute between ten and 24 miles and 12% commute from
25 to 50 miles. Another 5% (1,642) commute to their job from over 50 miles away.
• Roughly 24% of the workers living in Carver County also have jobs in the County. The re-
maining 76% commute outside of the County for employment.
• Of the 52,545 resident workers in the County, 10.1% commute to Minneapolis, while 9.9%
commute to Eden Prairie, 7.9% work in Chanhassen, 7.3% work in Chaska, and 5.3% com-
mute to Minnetonka. Over 33% of resident workers travel less than ten miles for their jobs,
while 48% have a commute distance from ten to 24 miles. Approximately 15% commute
between 25 and 50 miles while 4% commute more than 50 miles for employment.
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Chaska city, MN 3,049 8.9%Minneapolis city, MN 5,316 10.1%
Waconia city, MN 2,099 6.1%Eden Prairie city, MN 5,189 9.9%
Chanhassen city, MN 1,926 5.6%Chanhassen city, MN 4,164 7.9%
Shakopee city, MN 1,675 4.9%Chaska city, MN 3,846 7.3%
Eden Prairie city, MN 1,463 4.3%Minnetonka city, MN 2,763 5.3%
All Other Locations 24,190 70.3%All Other Locations 31,267 59.5%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 34,402 100.0%Total Jobs 52,545 100.0%
Less than 10 miles 15,619 45.4%Less than 10 miles 17,424 33.2%
10 to 24 miles 12,934 37.6%10 to 24 miles 25,207 48.0%
25 to 50 miles 4,207 12.2%25 to 50 miles 7,626 14.5%
Greater than 50 miles 1,642 4.8%Greater than 50 miles 2,288 4.4%
Sources: US Census Bureau LEHD; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
COMMUTING PATTERNS
CARVER COUNTY
2021
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TABLE 19
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Carver city, MN 92 12.9%Chaska city, MN 440 11.7%
Chaska city, MN 59 8.3%Eden Prairie city, MN 405 10.7%
Chanhassen city, MN 29 4.1%Minneapolis city, MN 315 8.4%
Minneapolis city, MN 27 3.8%Chanhassen city, MN 270 7.2%
Belle Plaine city, MN 26 3.6%Bloomington city, MN 175 4.6%
All Other Locations 482 67.4%All Other Locations 2,166 57.4%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 715 100.0%Total Jobs 3,771 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 571 79.9%Less than 25 miles 3,035 80.5%
Greater than 25 miles 144 20.1%Greater than 25 miles 736 19.5%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Chanhassen city, MN 1,402 6.4%Minneapolis city, MN 1,840 14.3%
Minneapolis city, MN 1,245 5.7%Eden Prairie city, MN 1,455 11.3%
Chaska city, MN 1,156 5.3%Chanhassen city, MN 1,402 10.9%
Eden Prairie city, MN 1,142 5.2%Minnetonka city, MN 889 6.9%
Shakopee city, MN 979 4.5%Bloomington city, MN 717 5.6%
All Other Locations 16,062 73.1%All Other Locations 6,571 51.0%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 21,986 100.0%Total Jobs 12,874 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 16,962 77.1%Less than 25 miles 11,734 91.1%
Greater than 25 miles 5,024 22.9%Greater than 25 miles 1,140 8.9%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Chaska city, MN 1,577 14.3%Chaska city, MN 1,577 11.5%
Shakopee city, MN 706 6.4%Minneapolis city, MN 1,473 10.7%
Chanhassen city, MN 482 4.4%Eden Prairie city, MN 1,467 10.7%
Eden Prairie city, MN 437 4.0%Chanhassen city, MN 1,156 8.4%
Minneapolis city, MN 432 3.9%Bloomington city, MN 688 5.0%
All Other Locations 7,408 67.1%All Other Locations 7,382 53.7%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 11,042 100.0%Total Jobs 13,743 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 9,209 83.4%Less than 25 miles 11,919 86.7%
Greater than 25 miles 1,833 16.6%Greater than 25 miles 1,824 13.3%
COMMUTING PATTERNS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
--------------- continued ---------------
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Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Cologne city, MN 72 8.6%Chaska city, MN 178 10.7%
Waconia city, MN 63 7.5%Eden Prairie city, MN 142 8.6%
Chaska city, MN 50 6.0%Waconia city, MN 134 8.1%
Glencoe city, MN 45 5.4%Chanhassen city, MN 99 6.0%
Norwood YA city, MN 39 4.6%Minneapolis city, MN 84 5.1%
All Other Locations 571 68.0%All Other Locations 1,022 61.6%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 840 100.0%Total Jobs 1,659 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 656 78.1%Less than 25 miles 1,156 69.7%
Greater than 25 miles 184 21.9%Greater than 25 miles 503 30.3%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Norwood YA city, MN 183 21.8%Norwood YA city, MN 213 9.3%
Waconia city, MN 42 5.0%Waconia city, MN 194 8.5%
Glencoe city, MN 39 4.6%Chaska city, MN 166 7.3%
Hamburg city, MN 34 4.1%Eden Prairie city, MN 156 6.8%
Cologne city, MN 23 2.7%Chanhassen, MN 148 6.5%
All Other Locations 518 61.7%All Other Locations 1,410 61.7%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 839 100.0%Total Jobs 2,287 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 680 81.0%Less than 25 miles 1,319 57.7%
Greater than 25 miles 159 19.0%Greater than 25 miles 968 42.3%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Mayer city, MN 40 8.5%Waconia city, MN 245 10.0%
Waconia city, MN 26 5.5%Chaska city, MN 132 5.4%
Watertown city, MN 15 3.2%Chanhassen city, MN 131 5.3%
Hutchinson city, MN 13 2.8%Eden Prairie city, MN 130 5.3%
New Germany city, MN 13 2.8%Minnetonka city, MN 116 4.7%
All Other Locations 364 77.3%All Other Locations 1,696 69.2%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 471 100.0%Total Jobs 2,450 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 344 73.0%Less than 25 miles 1,465 59.8%
Greater than 25 miles 127 27.0%Greater than 25 miles 985 40.2%
--------------- continued ---------------
Mayer-New Germany
Cologne
Hamburg-Norwood Young America
TABLE continued
COMMUTING PATTERNS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
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Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Victoria city, MN 185 12.3%Eden Prairie city, MN 697 11.7%
Chaska city, MN 126 8.4%Minneapolis city, MN 632 10.6%
Waconia city, MN 104 6.9%Chanhassen city, MN 422 7.1%
Minneapolis city, MN 55 3.7%Chaska city, MN 399 6.7%
Chanhassen city, MN 48 3.2%Minnetonka city, MN 375 6.3%
All Other Locations 983 65.5%All Other Locations 3,448 57.7%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 1,501 100.0%Total Jobs 5,973 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 1,197 79.7%Less than 25 miles 5,049 84.5%
Greater than 25 miles 304 20.3%Greater than 25 miles 924 15.5%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Waconia city, MN 1,147 22.1%Waconia city, MN 1,182 16.9%
Chaska city, MN 234 4.5%Eden Prairie city, MN 618 8.8%
Glencoe city, MN 198 3.8%Minneapolis city, MN 542 7.8%
Victoria city, MN 177 3.4%Chanhassen city, MN 433 6.2%
Norwood YA city, MN 161 3.1%Chaska city, MN 364 5.2%
All Other Locations 3,268 63.0%All Other Locations 3,853 55.1%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 5,185 100.0%Total Jobs 6,992 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 4,237 81.7%Less than 25 miles 4,949 70.8%
Greater than 25 miles 948 18.3%Greater than 25 miles 2,043 29.2%
Home Destination Work Destination
Place of Residence Count Share Place of Employment Count Share
Watertown city, MN 235 24.2%Minneapolis city, MN 205 7.3%
Mayer city, MN 44 4.5%Watertown city, MN 165 5.9%
Delano city, MN 42 4.3%Waconia city, MN 152 5.4%
Montrose city, MN 38 3.9%Plymouth city, MN 145 5.2%
Waconia city, MN 23 2.4%Minnetonka city, MN 137 4.9%
All Other Locations 591 60.7%All Other Locations 1,991 71.2%
Distance Traveled Count Share Distance Traveled Count Share
Total Jobs 973 100.0%Total Jobs 2,795 100.0%
Less than 25 miles 813 83.6%Less than 25 miles 2,004 71.7%
Greater than 25 miles 160 16.4%Greater than 25 miles 791 28.3%
Home Destination = Where workers live who are employed in the selection area
Work Destination = Where workers are employed who live in the selection area
Sources: US Census Bureau LEHD; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Waconia
Watertown
TABLE continued
COMMUTING PATTERNS
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2021
Victoria
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• Minneapolis, Eden Prairie, Minnetonka, and Bloomington represent key commute destina-
tions for workers residing in the County, particularly for workers residing in the eastern por-
tion of the County. Generally, the western submarkets have higher proportions of workers
with jobs in the County.
• Workers commuting into each submarket, particularly those commuting from further away,
represent a potential target market for housing in those communities.
• The following figure highlights key findings from our analysis of commuting patterns for
each submarket.
Key Home Destinations Key Work Destinations
Carver Submarket Carver (13%), Chaska (8%),
Chanhassen (4%)
Chaska (12%), Eden Prairie
(11%), Minneapolis (8%)
*144 workers (20%) commute
from 25+ miles
Chanhassen Submarket Chanhassen (6%), Minneapolis
(6%), Chaska (5%)
Minneapolis (14%), Eden Prairie
(11%), Chanhassen (11%)
*5,024 workers (23%) commute
from 25+ miles
Chaska Submarket Chaska (14%), Shakopee (6%),
Chanhassen (4%)
Chaska (12%), Minneapolis
(11%), Eden Prairie (11%)
*1,833 workers (17%) commute
from 25+ miles
Cologne Submarket Cologne (9%), Waconia (8%),
Chaska (6%)
Chaska (11%), Eden Prairie (9%),
Waconia (8%)
*184 workers (22%) commute
from 25+ miles
Hamburg - Norwood Young
America Submarket
Norwood Young America (22%),
Waconia (5%), Glencoe (5%)
Norwood Young America (9%),
Waconia (9%), Chaska (7%)
*159 workers (19%) commute
from 25+ miles
Mayer - New Germany
Submarket
Mayer (9%), Waconia (6%),
Watertown (3%)
Waconia (10%), Chaska (5%),
Chanhassen (5%)
*127 workers (27%) commute
from 25+ miles
Victoria Submarket Victoria (12%), Chaska (8%),
Waconia (7%)
Eden Prairie (12%), Minneapolis
(11%), Chanhassen (7%)
*304 workers (20%) commute
from 25+ miles
Waconia Submarket Waconia (22%), Chaska (5%),
Glencoe (4%)
Waconia (17%), Eden Prairie
(9%), Minneapolis (8%)
*948 workers (18%) commute
from 25+ miles
Watertown Submarket Watertown (24%), Mayer (5%),
Delano (4%)
Minneapolis (7%), Watertown
(6%), Waconia (5%)
*160 workers (16%), commute
from 25+ miles
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Employment Growth Trends
The table on the following page shows employment growth trends and projections from 2010
to 2040 for Carver County and its submarkets compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Data
for 2010, 2019, and 2020 represents the annual average employment for that year, while 2023
reflects second quarter data, the most recent information available at the time this report was
prepared. Annual and quarterly employment figures are sourced from the Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW) through DEED, while employment forecasts for 2030 and 2040
are based on growth rate projections provided by the Metropolitan Council, adjusted to 2023
employment numbers.
All establishments covered under the Unemployment Insurance Program are required to report
wage and employment statistics quarterly. Federal government establishments are also cov-
ered by the QCEW program. Workers and jobs excluded from these statistics include the self-
employed, family farm workers, and those who work only on a commission basis.
• Data from the QCEW indicates that Carver County gained 8,885 jobs (28% growth) between
2010 and 2019, while Metro Area employment expanded 16% during that time period.
• Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession during the second
quarter of 2020, Carver County employment declined by -3,003 jobs (-7.4%) between 2019
and 2020, while Metro Area employment also contracted -7.4%.
• Current data indicates that employment is recovering, as the number of jobs in the County
increased 10.8%, adding 4,061 jobs, between 2020 and the second quarter of 2023. By
comparison, the number of jobs increased 7.1% in the Metro Area since 2020.
• Continued job growth is anticipated between 2023 and 2030, as 1.9 million jobs are ex-
pected in the Metro Area by 2030, a 7.8% increase from the second quarter of 2023.
• Employment in Carver County is projected to expand to 46,121 jobs in 2030, an 11% in-
crease from the second quarter of 2023 with the addition of 4,476 jobs.
• The Metro Area is projected to add another 116,000 jobs between 2030 and 2040 (6.1%
growth), including 13.4% job growth in Carver County with the addition of 6,187 jobs. By
2040, we anticipate that there will be 52,308 jobs in the County and 2.0 million jobs in the
Metro Area.
• With 10,663 new jobs projected for Carver County by 2040, additional housing will be
needed to support a portion of the anticipated job growth in the County.
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TABLE 20
2nd Qtr.
Submarket/City 2010 2019 2020 2023 2030 2040 No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Carver 411 832 784 1,047 1,339 1,949 373 90.8%263 33.5%292 27.9%610 45.6%
Carver 183 273 245 402 567 935 62 33.9%157 64.1%165 41.0%368 64.9%
Remainder 228 559 539 645 772 1,014 311 136.4%106 19.7%127 19.7%242 31.3%
Chanhassen*10,935 16,200 14,450 16,364 17,392 18,824 3,515 32.1%1,914 13.2%1,028 6.3%1,432 8.2%
Chaska 11,084 13,234 12,481 13,144 14,768 16,244 1,397 12.6%663 5.3%1,624 12.4%1,476 10.0%
Cologne 551 698 711 757 812 876 160 29.0%46 6.5%55 7.3%64 7.9%
Cologne 276 360 369 393 430 481 93 33.7%24 6.5%37 9.4%51 11.9%
Remainder 275 338 342 364 382 395 67 24.4%22 6.4%18 4.9%13 3.4%
Hamburg-NYA 1,432 1,140 997 1,264 1,388 1,559 -435 -30.4%267 26.8%124 9.8%171 12.3%
Hamburg 105 89 88 87 92 98 -17 -16.2%-1 -1.1%5 5.7%6 6.5%
Norwood Young Am.1,206 984 846 1,076 1,194 1,355 -360 -29.9%230 27.2%118 11.0%161 13.5%
Remainder 121 67 63 101 102 106 -58 -47.9%38 60.3%1 1.0%4 3.9%
Mayer-New Germany 348 499 498 591 635 672 150 43.1%93 18.7%44 7.4%37 5.8%
Mayer 153 157 166 187 194 204 13 8.5%21 12.7%7 3.7%10 5.2%
New Germany 55 58 45 40 44 50 -10 -18.2%-5 -11.1%4 10.0%6 13.6%
Remainder 140 284 287 364 397 418 147 105.0%77 26.8%33 9.1%21 5.3%
Victoria 1,555 1,703 1,622 2,102 2,231 2,420 67 4.3%480 29.6%129 6.1%189 8.5%
Victoria 1,445 1,172 1,082 1,378 1,513 1,659 -363 -25.1%296 27.4%135 9.8%146 9.6%
Remainder 110 531 540 724 718 761 430 390.9%184 34.1%-6 -0.8%43 6.0%
Waconia 5,669 7,627 7,260 7,769 8,594 10,070 1,591 28.1%509 7.0%825 10.6%1,476 17.2%
Waconia 5,577 7,491 7,134 7,655 8,431 9,884 1,557 27.9%521 7.3%776 10.1%1,453 17.2%
Remainder 92 136 126 114 163 186 34 37.0%-12 -9.5%49 43.0%23 14.1%
Watertown 908 1,021 1,017 1,067 1,132 1,476 109 12.0%50 4.9%65 6.1%344 30.4%
Watertown 556 592 603 608 660 954 47 8.5%5 0.8%52 8.6%294 44.5%
Remainder 352 429 414 459 472 522 62 17.6%45 10.9%13 2.8%50 10.6%
Carver County 31,702 40,587 37,584 41,645 46,121 52,308 5,882 18.6%4,061 10.8%4,476 10.7%6,187 13.4%
Twin Cities^1,537,041 1,776,439 1,644,852 1,761,804 1,900,000 2,016,000 107,811 7.0%116,952 7.1%138,196 7.8%116,000 6.1%
Sources: MN DEED; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2030-2040
*Includes the portion of Chanhassen located in Hennepin County
^Seven-county Metro Area (Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington Counties)
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2010 - 2040
Change
Annual Average Forecast 2010-2020 2020-2023 2023-2030
94
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 85
• In Carver County, job growth is expected to be highest near concentrations of existing busi-
nesses and in communities along the major transportation corridors (i.e. Highways 5 and
212) where there is convenient highway access. The following graph summarizes employ-
ment growth trends and projections by submarket.
• As depicted in the graph, Chanhassen is expected to experience the largest job growth, add-
ing 4,374 jobs between the second quarter of 2023 and 2040 (30% increase), followed by
the Chaska (3,763 jobs, 30% growth) and Waconia (2,810 jobs, 39% growth) Submarkets.
- On a percentage basis, growth will be strongest in the Carver Submarket, experiencing
149% growth with the addition of 1,165 jobs between the second quarter of 2023 and
2040, followed by the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket (56% growth after
adding 562 jobs).
• Within Carver County, there will be a modest shift in employment concentrations between
2023 and 2040, with the Carver, Waconia, and Watertown Submarkets each gaining market
share of jobs.
- As of the second quarter of 2023, the Carver Submarket contained 2.5% of County jobs
but this proportion will grow to 3.7% by 2040. Employment in the Waconia Submarket
will increase from 18.7% of County jobs in 2023 to 19.3% in 2040, while the Watertown
Submarket’s market share will increase from 2.6% of County jobs to 2.8%.
• All other submarkets will lose market share, most notably Chanhassen which contains
39.3% of County jobs in 2023, declining to 36.0% in 2040 .
-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver County Job Growth Projections by Submarket
2010 -2040
'10-'20
'20-'30
'30-'40
95
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 86
• The following map depicts current concentrations of employment in Carver County. As
shown, job densities are highest surrounding the Highway 5 intersection with Market Boule-
vard in Chanhassen, along Highway 41 in Chaska between Highways 5 and 212, and along
Highway 5 in Waconia.
Carver County Employment Concentrations
96
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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Industry Employment and Wage Data
The following tables display information on the employment and wage situation in Carver
County compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area, as well as each of the submarkets in the
County. Data is sourced from the QCEW program through DEED and represents second quarter
data for 2022 and 2023.
Certain industries in the tables may not display any information which means that there is ei-
ther no reported economic activity for that industry or the data has been suppressed to protect
the confidentiality of cooperating employers. This generally occurs when there are too few em-
ployers or one employer comprises too much of the employment in that geography.
TABLE 21
Industry Employment
Weekly
Wage Employment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 40,715 $1,229 41,645 $1,267 930 2.3%$38 3.1%
Nat. Resources & Mining 129 $763 125 $856 -4 -3.1%$93 12.2%
Construction 2,689 $1,431 2,699 $1,499 10 0.4%$68 4.8%
Manufacturing 9,779 $1,538 10,288 $1,624 509 5.2%$86 5.6%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 6,066 $1,002 6,115 $1,100 49 0.8%$98 9.8%
Information 253 $1,482 230 $1,437 -23 -9.1%($45)-3.0%
Financial Activities 1,176 $1,506 1,140 $1,422 -36 -3.1%($84)-5.6%
Prof. & Business Services 3,566 $1,928 3,237 $1,946 -329 -9.2%$18 0.9%
Education & Health Services 10,018 $1,104 10,492 $1,117 474 4.7%$13 1.2%
Leisure & Hospitality 4,592 $487 4,776 $481 184 4.0%($6)-1.2%
Other Services 965 $713 981 $803 16 1.7%$90 12.6%
Public Administration 1,477 $1,349 1560 $1,354 83 5.6%$5 0.4%
Total, All Industries 1,738,029 $1,408 1,761,804 $1,432 23,775 1.4%$24 1.7%
Natural Resources & Mining 4,700 $994 4,830 $990 130 2.8%($4)-0.4%
Nat. Resources & Mining 80,075 $1,568 81,362 $1,671 1,287 1.6%$103 6.6%
Manufacturing 174,414 $1,618 175,638 $1,624 1,224 0.7%$6 0.4%
Trade, Transp, Utilities 315,188 $1,200 317,133 $1,237 1,945 0.6%$37 3.1%
Information 31,315 $1,920 30,188 $1,998 -1,127 -3.6%$78 4.1%
Financial Activities 133,072 $2,035 131,007 $2,093 -2,065 -1.6%$58 2.9%
Prof. & Business Services 296,789 $1,929 294,340 $1,892 -2,449 -0.8%($37)-1.9%
Education & Health Services 414,829 $1,208 427,024 $1,255 12,195 2.9%$47 3.9%
Leisure & Hospitality 162,759 $622 170,260 $648 7,501 4.6%$26 4.2%
Other Services 53,514 $886 55,464 $948 1,950 3.6%$62 7.0%
Public Administration 71,370 $1,451 74555 $1,523 3,185 4.5%$72 5.0%
Sources: MN DEED; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CARVER COUNTY
2022 - 2023
2022 Q2 2023 Q2 Change 2022 - 2023
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
Carver County
Twin Cities Metro Area
97
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 88
• Education and Health Services is the largest employment sector in Carver County with
10,492 jobs (25.2% of total employment), followed closely by the Manufacturing sector with
10,288 jobs (24.7%). Education and Health Services is the also largest employment sector in
the Twin Cities Metro Area (24% of total jobs).
• In Carver County, total employment expanded 2.3%, adding 930 jobs, between the second
quarters of 2022 and 2023, with the largest growth occurring in the Manufacturing (added
509 jobs) and the Education and Health Services (474 jobs) sectors. The Metro Area experi-
enced 1.4% job growth during the period, with the largest job gain occurring in the Educa-
tion and Health Services sector.
• Average weekly wages in Carver County ($1,267) are -12% lower than the Metro Area
($1,432). Highest wages in the County are found in the Professional and Business Services
($1,946) and Manufacturing ($1,624) industry sectors.
• A household earning the average weekly wage in Carver County ($1,267) would be able to
afford an apartment renting for approximately $1,647 per month to not exceed 30% of its
monthly income on housing costs, notably higher than the average rent for a one-bedroom
units at existing market rate rental properties in the County ($1,400).
• Assuming that a potential home buyer has good credit and makes a 10% down payment, a
household earning the average weekly wage in the County would be able to afford to pur-
chase a home priced at approximately $194,900 or lower to not be cost-burdened (paying
more than 30% of their income for housing). By comparison, the median resale price for de-
tached single-family homes in Carver County in 2023 is $489,900.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Carver Co.Twin Cities
2023 Q2 Employment: % of Total
Public Administration
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Prof. & Business Services
Financial Activities
Information
Trade, Transp., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Nat. Resources & Mining
98
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 89
TABLE 22
Industry Employment
Weekly
Wage Employment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 931 $766 1,047 $770 116 12.5%$3 0.4%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 29 $1,211 29 $1,245 0 0.0%$34 2.8%
Manufacturing ----------------
Trade, Transp., Utilities 236 $535 307 $482 71 30.1%($53)-10.0%
Information ----------------
Financial Activities 14 $1,281 16 $1,193 2 14.3%($88)-6.9%
Prof. & Business Serv.206 $880 222 $1,012 16 7.8%$131 14.9%
Education & Health Serv.134 $663 153 $653 19 14.2%($10)-1.5%
Leisure & Hospitality 54 $315 74 $291 20 37.0%($24)-7.6%
Other Services ----------------
Public Administration 44 $679 42 $917 -2 -4.5%$238 35.1%
Total, All Industries 15,466 $1,409 16,364 $1,501 898 5.8%$92 6.5%
Nat. Resources & Mining 12 $635 9 $655 -3 -25.0%$20 3.1%
Construction 846 $1,652 870 $1,608 24 2.8%($44)-2.7%
Manufacturing 4,491 $1,544 5,081 $1,797 590 13.1%$253 16.4%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 2,748 $1,284 2,629 $1,548 -119 -4.3%$264 20.6%
Information 107 $1,561 119 $1,730 12 11.2%$169 10.8%
Financial Activities 427 $1,667 426 $1,561 -1 -0.2%($106)-6.4%
Prof. & Business Serv.2,143 $2,315 2,177 $2,110 34 1.6%($205)-8.9%
Education & Health Serv.2,197 $1,074 2,505 $1,079 308 14.0%$5 0.5%
Leisure & Hospitality 1,876 $605 1,920 $602 44 2.3%($3)-0.5%
Other Services 401 $720 411 $778 10 2.5%$58 8.1%
Public Administration 217 $1,390 214 $1,491 -3 -1.4%$101 7.3%
Total, All Industries 13,293 $1,300 13,144 $1,397 -149 -1.1%$97 7.5%
Nat. Resources & Mining 10 $2,426 11 $1,929 1 10.0%($497)-20.5%
Construction 453 $1,542 477 $1,590 24 5.3%$48 3.1%
Manufacturing 4,907 $1,657 4,977 $1,823 70 1.4%$166 10.0%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 1,371 $951 1,364 $984 -7 -0.5%$33 3.5%
Information 54 $1,448 38 $1,275 -16 -29.6%($173)-11.9%
Financial Activities 393 $1,435 353 $1,400 -40 -10.2%($35)-2.4%
Prof. & Business Serv.864 $1,728 801 $1,877 -63 -7.3%$149 8.6%
Education & Health Serv.2,764 $1,011 2,610 $1,069 -154 -5.6%$58 5.7%
Leisure & Hospitality 1,198 $460 1,200 $463 2 0.2%$3 0.7%
Other Services 245 $657 213 $879 -32 -13.1%$222 33.8%
Public Administration 980 $1,465 1,038 $1,473 58 5.9%$8 0.5%
--------------- continued ---------------
Chaska
Carver
Chanhassen
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
2022 - 2023
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
Change 2022 - 20232023 Q22022 Q2
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
99
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 90
Industry Employment Weekly Employment Weekly
Total, All Industries 747 $1,329 757 $1,229 10 1.3%($99)-7.5%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 78 $1,019 72 $1,261 -6 -7.7%$242 23.7%
Manufacturing ----------------
Trade, Transp., Utilities 81 $818 76 $924 -5 -6.2%$106 13.0%
Information ----------------
Financial Activities 24 $1,264 22 $836 -2 -8.3%($428)-33.9%
Prof. & Business Serv.18 $1,306 23 $1,293 5 27.8%($13)-1.0%
Education & Health Serv.128 $876 143 $869 15 11.7%($7)-0.8%
Leisure & Hospitality ----------------
Other Services ----------------
Public Administration 6 $1,282 8 $1,255 2 33.3%($27)-2.1%
Total, All Industries 1,077 $880 1,264 $972 187 17.4%$91 10.4%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 187 $1,159 181 $1,312 -6 -3.2%$153 13.2%
Manufacturing ----------------
Trade, Transp., Utilities 236 $706 247 $688 11 4.7%($17)-2.5%
Information 8 $754 6 $797 -2 -25.0%$43 5.7%
Financial Activities 43 $971 43 $954 0 0.0%($17)-1.8%
Prof. & Business Serv.70 $722 51 $1,014 -19 -27.1%$292 40.4%
Education & Health Serv.164 $1,145 172 $1,136 8 4.9%($9)-0.8%
Leisure & Hospitality 152 $319 151 $307 -1 -0.7%($12)-3.8%
Other Services 14 $442 17 $407 3 21.4%($35)-7.9%
Public Administration 39 $518 73 $330 34 87.2%($188)-36.3%
Total, All Industries 579 $817 591 $879 12 2.1%$62 7.5%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 77 $1,046 63 $1,163 -14 -18.2%$117 11.2%
Manufacturing ----------------
Trade, Transp., Utilities 65 $728 94 $728 29 44.6%($1)-0.1%
Information ----------------
Financial Activities 9 $1,344 8 $1,346 -1 -11.1%$2 0.1%
Prof. & Business Serv.25 $1,233 16 $1,739 -9 -36.0%$506 41.0%
Education & Health Serv.7 $352 7 $318 0 0.0%($34)-9.7%
Leisure & Hospitality 22 $279 24 $285 2 9.1%$6 2.2%
Other Services 18 $769 18 $755 0 0.0%($14)-1.8%
Public Administration 18 $436 22 $636 4 22.2%$200 45.8%
TABLE continued
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2022 - 2023
--------------- continued ---------------
Mayer - New Germany
Change 2022 - 2023
Employment Wage
Cologne
Hamburg - Norwood Young America
2022 Q2 2023 Q2
100
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Industry Employment
Weekly
Wage Employment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 2,014 $967 2,102 $1,025 88 4.4%$58 6.0%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 326 $1,314 309 $1,652 -17 -5.2%$338 25.7%
Manufacturing 90 $1,030 74 $1,058 -16 -17.8%$28 2.7%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 231 $981 254 $977 23 10.0%($4)-0.4%
Information ----------------
Financial Activities 68 $2,165 63 $2,450 -5 -7.4%$285 13.2%
Prof. & Business Serv.185 $1,457 170 $1,541 -15 -8.1%$84 5.7%
Education & Health Serv.471 $878 527 $945 56 11.9%$67 7.6%
Leisure & Hospitality 333 $392 379 $362 46 13.8%($30)-7.7%
Other Services ----------------
Public Administration 61 $904 65 $1,001 4 6.6%$97 10.7%
Total, All Industries 7,783 $1,076 7,769 $1,061 -14 -0.2%($15)-1.4%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction ----------------
Manufacturing 1,072 $1,279 843 $1,229 -229 -21.4%($50)-3.9%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 1,183 $724 1,146 $747 -37 -3.1%$23 3.1%
Information 55 $695 56 $653 1 1.8%($42)-6.0%
Financial Activities 108 $1,493 106 $1,232 -2 -1.9%($261)-17.5%
Prof. & Business Serv.255 $1,132 253 $1,347 -2 -0.8%$215 19.0%
Education & Health Serv.3,916 $1,253 4,132 $1,231 216 5.5%($22)-1.8%
Leisure & Hospitality 715 $373 767 $361 52 7.3%($12)-3.2%
Other Services 144 $698 131 $736 -13 -9.0%$38 5.4%
Public Administration 90 $1,248 72 $1,213 -18 -20.0%($35)-2.8%
Total, All Industries 1,036 $856 1,067 $857 31 3.0%$0 0.0%
Nat. Resources & Mining ----------------
Construction 176 $1,095 181 $1,104 5 2.8%$9 0.8%
Manufacturing 50 $851 38 $805 -12 -24.0%($46)-5.4%
Trade, Transp., Utilities 138 $687 127 $689 -11 -8.0%$2 0.3%
Information ----------------
Financial Activities 56 $925 56 $887 0 0.0%($38)-4.1%
Prof. & Business Serv.85 $1,103 84 $1,154 -1 -1.2%$51 4.6%
Education & Health Serv.83 $557 74 $655 -9 -10.8%$98 17.6%
Leisure & Hospitality 130 $350 151 $372 21 16.2%$22 6.2%
Other Services ----------------
Public Administration 17 $1,295 22 $1,015 5 29.4%($279)-21.6%
Sources: MN DEED; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
TABLE continued
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2022 - 2023
2022 Q2 2023 Q2
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
Change 2022 - 2023
101
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• Year-over-year job growth was largest in the Chanhassen Submarket, adding 898 jobs (5.8%
growth), followed by the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket with the addition
of 187 jobs (17.4% growth) and the Carver Submarket (116 jobs, 12.5% growth).
• Average weekly wages among the various submarkets ranges from lows of $770 in the
Carver Submarket and $857 in the Watertown Submarket to highs of $1,397 in Chaska and
$1,501 in Chanhassen.
• The average weekly wage increased 3.1% in Carver County between the second quarter of
2022 and the second quarter of 2023, compared to a 1.7% increase in the Metro Area.
- Among the Carver County Submarkets, wage growth was largest in Chaska, increasing
$97 (7.5%) and Chanhassen, increasing $92 per week (6.5%). On a percentage basis,
wage growth was strongest in the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket
(10.4% growth over the year, increasing $91 per week).
• The following figure summarizes housing affordability, both rental housing and for-sale
housing, based on the average weekly wage for each submarket compared to median con-
tract rents and median resale prices for detached single-family homes.
• Housing affordability is based on a 30% allocation of income to housing, and the affordable
home purchase price assumes that a potential buyer has good credit and makes a 10%
down payment for a previously owned detached single-family home at a 30-year mortgage
rate of 7.44% (weekly average mortgage rate as of November 16, 2023).
• The data indicates that an individual working in Carver County and earning the average
wage would likely be able to afford to rent an apartment , although rental affordability var-
ies by submarket. An individual earning the average wage would not be able to afford to
purchase a detached single-family home at the median sale price. In most submarkets,
households with two persons earning the average wage would not be able to afford a sin-
gle-family home sold at the median resale price.
Avg. Weekly Affordable Med. Contract Affordable '23 Median
Submarket Wage Rent Rent Home Purch.Resale Price
Carver $770 $1,000 $1,108 $118,400 $455,000
Chanhassen $1,501 $1,951 $1,390 $230,900 $644,500
Chaska $1,397 $1,816 $1,168 $214,800 $455,000
Cologne $1,229 $1,598 $519 $189,100 $379,000
Hamburg - NYA $972 $1,263 $959 $149,400 $300,000
Mayer - New Germ.$879 $1,143 $860 $135,200 $347,500
Victoria $1,025 $1,333 $1,647 $157,700 $636,000
Waconia $1,061 $1,379 $1,020 $163,200 $472,000
Watertown $857 $1,114 $766 $131,700 $370,500
Carver County $1,267 $1,647 $1,164 $194,900 $489,900
Metro Area $1,432 $1,862 $1,142 $220,200 $395,133
102
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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Major Employers
The table on the following pages identifies the top five largest employers in each of the cities
located in Carver County. This data is sourced from the most recent available General Obliga-
tion Bond Official Statements from Carver County and its communities via the Municipal Securi-
ties Rulemaking Board (MSRB) Electronic Municipal Market Access (EMMA). The Official State-
ments were posted between 2021 and 2023. Recent General Obligation Bond Official State-
ments were not available for Cologne and Hamburg.
• In total, we identified 45 major employers in Carver County. Combined, these employers
employ an estimated 16,155 workers, representing approximately 39% of all jobs in the
County.
• The ten largest employers in Carver County employ an estimated 11,249 workers, repre-
senting 70% of the jobs among the list of 45 major employers and 27% of all jobs in the
County. Four of the County’s ten largest employers are located in Chaska, while three are in
Chanhassen, and three are in Waconia.
- The top ten employers in the County include Ridgeview Medical Center (Waconia), Life
Time Fitness (Chanhassen), Independent School District 112 (Chaska), Instant Web Com-
panies (Chanhassen), Emerson – Rosemount Inc. (Chanhassen), Strom Aviation Inc. (Wa-
conia), Entegris (Chaska), Beckman-Coulter Inc. (Chaska), TEL-FSI Inc. (Chaska), and Inde-
pendent School District 110 (Waconia).
• Based on the industry sector composition of these employers, it appears that the se major
employers represent a fairly diverse employment base, although weighted toward the Man-
ufacturing industry with 5,699 jobs (35%) and the Educational Services sector with 3,777
jobs (23%).
60
5,699
80
476
646
1,026
3,777
1,942
1,464
98
32
855
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Prof., Scientific, & Tech. Services
Admin. Servcies & Support and…
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Rec.
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services
Public Administration
Carver County Major Employers
Jobs by Industry Sector
103
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 94
TABLE 23
Company City Product/Service Emps.
Mills Fleet Farm Carver Retail 170
ISD No. 112 Carver Elementary & secondary education 113
City of Carver Carver City government 53
Kwik Trip Carver Convenience store 40
Carver Ridge Senior Living Carver Senior living facility 36
Life Time Fitness Chanhassen Health club & fitness center 1,464
Instant Web Companies Chanhassen Commercial printing 1,157
Emerson - Rosemount, Inc.Chanhassen Measuring instruments 1,067
Bernard Group Chanhassen Outdoor advertising 646
ISD No. 112 Chanhassen Elementary & secondary education 465
ISD No. 112 Chaska Elementary & secondary education 1,346
Entegris Inc.Chaska Semiconductor processing 925
Beckman-Coulter, Inc.Chaska Diagnostic reagents 850
TEL-FSI, Inc.Chaska Semi-centrifugal products 850
Carver County Chaska County government 700
ISD No. 111 Mayer Elementary & secondary education 345
Casey's General Store Mayer Convenience store 11
Fill Me Up & BP Food & Fuel Mayer Convenience store 10
City of Mayer Mayer Municipal government 7
Knuckleheads Bar & Grill Mayer Full service restaurant 7
Top Dog Country Club New Germany Pet boarding, sitting, & kennels 22
BNR Irrigation Services, Inc.New Germany Irrigation systems & equipment 20
Award Baking International New Germany Bakers-wholesale 20
Kenny B's New Germany Cookie shops 15
Paws Inn Resort New Germany Pet boarding, sitting, & kennels 10
Bongards' Creameries, Inc.Norwood Young America Cheese & whey processing 250
ISD No. 108 Norwood Young America Elementary & secondary education 125
Vickerman Co.Norwood Young America Manufacturer & wholesaler 60
Haven at Peace Village Norwood Young America Home health services 57
Accurate Concrete Forming, Inc.Norwood Young America Concrete contractors 40
Holy Family High School Victoria Private school 142
ISD No. 112 Victoria Public elementary school 136
Winchester and Rye Victoria Restaurant 76
City of Victoria Victoria City government 70
Hartman Companies Victoria Landscaping 25
--------------- continued ---------------
MAJOR EMPLOYERS BY CITY
CARVER COUNTY
2021 - 2023
104
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 95
Company City Product/Service Emps.
Ridgeview Medical Center Waconia Hospital 1,749
Strom Aviation, Inc.Waconia Aircraft dealers 1,001
ISD No. 110 Waconia Elementary & secondary education 840
CabinetWorks Group Waconia Wood cabinets & door mfg.600
Mackenthun's Supermarket Waconia Retail grocery store 200
ISD No. 111 Watertown Elementary & secondary education 265
River Oaks at Watertown Watertown Assisted living 78
Market Place Foods Watertown Grocery store 45
Watertown Fire Department Watertown Fire department 25
Westwood Place Watertown Assisted living 22
Sources: Communities in Carver County; MSRB EMMA; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAJOR EMPLOYERS BY CITY
CARVER COUNTY
2021 - 2023
TABLE continued
105
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Housing Characteristics
Introduction
This section of the report examines characteristics of the existing housing stock in Carver
County and its submarkets compared to the Metro Area. Housing demand is influenced, in
large part, by factors related to the supply of housing in a market area such as the age and con-
dition of the housing stock, as well as financial considerations (i.e. home values, rental rates).
The following topics are covered in this analysis.
Housing units by tenure and occupancy, including mortgage status
Housing units by structure type and tenure
Owner-occupied units by value
Renter-occupied units by contract rent
Age of the existing housing stock, and
Residential building permit trends
The U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (“ACS”) is the primary data resource for
the Housing Characteristics section of this report. Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC uti-
lizes five-year data estimates which provide a larger sample size and has a longer period of data
collection than the one-year data estimates. At the time this analysis was prepared, the 2017-
2021 ACS was the most recent five-year data available. Other data sources include the U.S Cen-
sus Decennial Census and the Metropolitan Council.
Housing unit is defined as a house, an apartment, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied
or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters, while a household is an occupied housing
unit. A householder refers to the person in whose name the housing unit is owned or rented.
106
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Housing Unit Occupancy
The table on the following pages shows the total number of housing units, as well as the occu-
pancy status for Carver County and its nine submarkets compared to the seven-county Twin Cit-
ies Metro Area. Information is sourced from the 2010 Decennial Census and the 2017-2021
ACS, the most recent data available.
The Census’ definition of a vacant housing unit includes units that were listed for sale or for
rent at the time of the Census survey, units that have been rented or sold but were not yet oc-
cupied, seasonal housing (vacation or second homes), and “other” vacant housing. Other va-
cant housing units include housing for migratory workers, housing units held for occupancy of a
caretaker, and units in the foreclosure process.
• As of the 2021 ACS period, there were an estimated 39,185 housing units in Carver County.
As depicted in the following chart, Chaska contains the largest number of housing units with
10,552 (27% of the total), followed closely by Chanhassen with 9,894 units (25%).
• The number of housing units in the County increased 15% between the 2010 Decennial Cen-
sus and the 2021 ACS estimate, increasing by 5,279 units.
- Largest housing unit increases occurred in Chaska and Chanhassen, adding 1,262 units
(14% growth) and 1,215 units (14% growth), respectively.
• On a percentage basis, largest growth occurred in the Victoria Submarket (33% increase
with the addition of 1,061 housing units), the Carver Submarket (29% growth, 604 units),
and the Cologne Submarket (28% growth, 283 units). 2,6749,89410,5521,2871,9181,7804,2925,1912,2270
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
UnitsDistribution of Housing Units by Submarket
Carver County
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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TABLE 24
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
2021 Total Housing Units 2,674 100%9,894 100%10,552 100%1,287 100%1,918 100%1,780 100%
Occupied Units 2,548 95.3%9,406 95.1%10,336 98.0%1,237 96.1%1,812 94.5%1,713 96.2%
Owner-Occupied 2,301 86.1%8,262 83.5%7,288 69.1%1,133 88.0%1,381 72.0%1,577 88.6%
mortgage or loan 1,616 60.4%6,169 62.4%5,304 50.3%712 55.3%991 51.7%1,160 65.2%
free and clear 685 25.6%2,093 21.2%1,984 18.8%421 32.7%390 20.3%417 23.4%
Renter-Occupied 247 9.2%1,144 11.6%3,048 28.9%104 8.1%431 22.5%136 7.6%
Vacant Units 126 4.7%488 4.9%216 2.0%50 3.9%106 5.5%67 3.8%
For Rent 0 0.0%116 1.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%11 0.6%8 0.4%
For Sale Only 0 0.0%36 0.4%37 0.4%0 0.0%42 2.2%2 0.1%
Seasonal/Recreational 27 1.0%166 1.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%7 0.4%
Rented/Sold, Not Occ.0 0.0%64 0.6%52 0.5%10 0.8%27 1.4%13 0.7%
Other 99 3.7%106 1.1%127 1.2%40 3.1%26 1.4%37 2.1%
2010 Total Housing Units 2,070 100%8,679 100%9,290 100%1,004 100%1,974 100%1,533 100%
Occupied Units 1,983 95.8%8,352 96.2%8,816 94.9%963 95.9%1,856 94.0%1,451 94.7%
Owner-Occupied 1,803 87.1%7,212 83.1%6,392 68.8%832 82.9%1,424 72.1%1,291 84.2%
mortgage or loan 1,478 71.4%6,162 71.0%5,404 58.2%621 61.9%1,062 53.8%962 62.8%
free and clear 325 15.7%1,050 12.1%988 10.6%211 21.0%362 18.3%329 21.5%
Renter-Occupied 180 8.7%1,140 13.1%2,424 26.1%131 13.0%432 21.9%160 10.4%
Vacant Units 87 4.2%327 3.8%474 5.1%41 4.1%118 6.0%82 5.3%
For Rent 4 0.2%57 0.7%228 2.5%4 0.4%41 2.1%21 1.4%
For Sale Only 38 1.8%124 1.4%97 1.0%12 1.2%24 1.2%27 1.8%
Seasonal/Recreational 9 0.4%62 0.7%50 0.5%5 0.5%8 0.4%6 0.4%
Rented/Sold, Not Occ.3 0.1%39 0.4%28 0.3%4 0.4%9 0.5%0 0.0%
Other 33 1.6%45 0.5%71 0.8%16 1.6%36 1.8%28 1.8%
--------------- continued ---------------20102021HOUSING UNIT OCCUPANCY
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.
---------- Submarkets ----------
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No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
2021 Total Housing Units 4,292 100%5,191 100%2,227 100%39,815 100%
Occupied Units 4,052 94.4%5,041 97.1%2,068 92.9%38,213 96.0%
Owner-Occupied 3,762 87.7%4,080 78.6%1,811 81.3%31,595 79.4%
mortgage or loan 2,717 63.3%3,211 61.9%1,272 57.1%23,152 58.1%
free and clear 1,045 24.3%869 16.7%539 24.2%8,443 21.2%
Renter-Occupied 290 6.8%961 18.5%257 11.5%6,618 16.6%
Vacant Units 240 5.6%150 2.9%159 7.1%1,602 4.0%
For Rent 11 0.3%22 0.4%104 4.7%272 0.7%
For Sale Only 78 1.8%0 0.0%0 0.0%195 0.5%
Seasonal/Recreational 113 2.6%15 0.3%0 0.0%328 0.8%
Rented/Sold, Not Occ.0 0.0%40 0.8%55 2.5%261 0.7%
Other 38 0.9%73 1.4%0 0.0%546 1.4%
2010 Total Housing Units 3,231 100%4,563 100%2,192 100%34,536 100%
Occupied Units 3,095 95.8%4,343 95.2%2,032 92.7%32,891 95.2%
Owner-Occupied 2,826 87.5%3,403 74.6%1,663 75.9%26,846 77.7%
mortgage or loan 2,317 71.7%2,823 61.9%1,253 57.2%22,082 63.9%
free and clear 509 15.8%580 12.7%410 18.7%4,764 13.8%
Renter-Occupied 269 8.3%940 20.6%369 16.8%6,045 17.5%
Vacant Units 136 4.2%220 4.8%160 7.3%1,645 4.8%
For Rent 21 0.6%73 1.6%63 2.9%512 1.5%
For Sale Only 38 1.2%57 1.2%43 2.0%460 1.3%
Seasonal/Recreational 51 1.6%28 0.6%12 0.5%231 0.7%
Rented/Sold, Not Occ.8 0.2%21 0.5%6 0.3%118 0.3%
Other 18 0.6%41 0.9%36 1.6%324 0.9%
Sources: US Census; 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
TABLE continued
HOUSING UNIT OCCUPANCY
201013.7%
28.2%
5.8%202195.7%
66.2%
46.5%
19.7%
29.6%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.4%
1.2%
---------- Submarkets ----------
100%
94.2%
65.9%
52.3%
2.3%
Pct.
100%
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Victoria Waconia
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• Approximately 96.0% of all housing units in Carver County were occupied during 2021 ACS
period. Occupancy rates ranged from a low of 92.9% in the Watertown Submarket to 98.0%
in Chaska.
– By comparison, the Metro Area had an estimated occupancy rate of 95.7% in the 2021.
• An estimated 79.4% of Carver County housing units were owner-occupied in 2021, including
58.1% that were owned with a mortgage or loan and 21.2% that were owned free and clear.
By comparison, 66.2% of all housing units were owner-occupied in the Metro Area (46.5%
owned with a mortgage or loan and 19.7% owned free and clear).
• An estimated 16.6% of housing units were renter-occupied in Carver County, notably lower
than 29.6% in the Metro Area.
• The following graph summarizes estimated housing unit occupancy for each of the submar-
kets in 2021, compared to the County and the Metro Area.
• Among the nine submarkets, Mayer – New Germany and Cologne had the highest propor-
tions of owner-occupied housing, at 88.6% and 88.0% respectively, while the proportions
were lowest in the Chaska (69.1%) and Hamburg – Norwood Young America (72.0%) Sub-
markets.
60%
62%
50%
55%
52%
65%
63%
62%
57%
58%
47%
26%
21%
19%
33%
20%
23%
24%
17%
24%
21%
20%
9%
12%
29%
8%
22%
8%
7%
19%
12%
17%
30%
5%
5%
2%
4%
6%
4%
6%
3%
7%
4%
4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-New Germ.
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver Co.
Metro Area
Housing Unit Occupancy
Carver County Market Area
Owned-Mortgage/Loan Owned-Free & Clear Renter-Occupied Vacant
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• The Chaska Submarket had the highest proportion of renter-occupied housing units (28.9%),
followed by the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket (22.5%). The Victoria Sub-
market had the lowest proportion of renter-occupied units (6.8%), followed by the Mayer –
New Germany (7.6%) and Cologne (8.1%) Submarkets.
• Carver County had an estimated 4.0% vacancy rate (1,602 vacant units) in 2021, slightly
lower than the 4.3% vacancy rate in the Metro Area.
• The Watertown Submarket had the highest vacancy rate (7.1%) in the County, followed by
the Victoria (5.6%) and Hamburg – Norwood Young America (5.5%) Submarkets. With va-
cancy rates at 2.0% and 2.9%, housing markets were tightest in the Chaska and Waconia
Submarkets, respectively.
• As depicted in the preceding graph, vacancies were highest for reasons other than the iden-
tified categories (i.e. vacant for rent). In Carver County, “other” units represented the larg-
est number of vacancies with 546 (34% of all vacant units), with the majority of these being
located in the Chaska (127), Chanhassen (106), and Carver (99) Submarkets. These “other”
vacancies could include units held for occupancy by a caretaker or units held for personal
reasons of the owner.
Carver Chan.Chaska Cologne Hamburg
- NYA
Mayer -
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
Other 99 106 127 40 26 37 38 73 0
Rent/Sold, Not Occ.0 64 52 10 27 13 0 40 55
Seasonal/Rec.27 166 0 0 0 7 113 15 0
For Sale Only 0 36 37 0 42 2 78 0 0
For Rent 0 116 0 0 11 8 11 22 104
Vacancy Rate 4.7%4.9%2.0%3.9%5.5%3.8%5.6%2.9%7.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Carver County Submarkets
Vacant Housing Units by Vacancy Status
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• Approximately 20% of the vacant units in the County (328 units) were seasonal/recreational
units, with the Chanhassen (166) and Victoria (113) Submarkets containing the majority of
these vacancies.
• There were 272 vacant units for rent in Carver County (17% of all vacancies) in 2021, while
For Sale units represented 12% of the vacancies (195). There were also 261 vacant units
classified as being rented or sold, but not occupied (16% of the vacancies) in the County.
• Housing occupancy rates increased modestly in Carver County between 2010 and 2021, as
the number of owner-occupied units increased 18% while renter-occupied units increased
9% against a -3% decline in vacant units.
• As depicted in the following graph, owner-occupied housing unit growth was strongest in
the Cologne (36% growth), Victoria (33%), and Carver (28%) Submarkets. Renter -occupied
growth was strongest in the Carver (37%) and Chaska (26%) Submarkets.
• The number of vacant housing units contracted in the Chaska (-54%), Waconia (-32%),
Mayer – New Germany (-18%), Hamburg – Norwood Young America (-10%), and Watertown
(-1%) Submarkets. These decreases were partially offset by increased vacancies in the Vic-
toria (76%), Chanhassen (49%), Carver (45%), and Cologne (22%) Submarkets.
Carver, 28%
Carver, 37%
Carver, 45%
Chanhassen, 15%
Chanhassen, 0%
Chanhassen, 49%
Chaska , 14%
Chaska , 26%
Chaska , -54%
Cologne , 36%
Cologne, -21%
Cologne, 22%
Hamburg-NYA, -3%
Hamburg-NYA, 0%
Hamburg-NYA, -10%
Mayer-New Germ., 22%
Mayer-New Germ., -15%
Mayer-New Germ., -18%
Victoria, 33%
Victoria, 8%
Victoria, 76%
Waconia, 20%
Waconia, 2%
Waconia, -32%
Watertown, 9%
Watertown, -30%
Watertown, -1%
-100%-50%0%50%100%
Owner-Occupied
Renter-Occupied
Vacant
Percent Change in Housing Unit Occupancy
2010 -2021
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Housing Stock by Structure Type
Information presented in the table on the following page summarizes the number of housing
units by structure type in Carver County and its submarkets compared to the Twin Cities Metro
Area. Data is sourced from the 2017-2021 ACS with adjustments made by Maxfield Research.
• Single-family (one-unit) detached units are the most common housing type in the Market
Area, comprising 73% of all housing units in Carver County compared to 58% of all units in
Metro Area. Among the nine submarkets, the proportion of detached single-family units
ranges from 58% of all units in Chaska to 95% in the Mayer – New Germany Submarket.
• Single-unit attached structures (i.e. twin homes and townhomes) are the second most com-
mon housing product type in the County, at 12% of all units compared to 11% in the Metro
Area. Within Carver County, proportions range from 1% of the units in the Mayer – New
Germany Submarket to over 19% in Chanhassen.
• Another 7% of the units in Carver County are in structures with 20 or more units, compared
to 19% in the Metro Area. Chaska contains the highest percentage of units in buildings with
20 or more units (14%), while the Cologne and Mayer – New Germany Submarkets do not
have any units in buildings with 20 or more units.
• Based on this data, it appears that the Chaska, Hamburg – Norwood Young America, Waco-
nia, and Chanhassen Submarkets offer the greatest housing variety, while the variety of
housing in submarkets such as Mayer – New Germany and Cologne is more limited.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Housing Units by Structure Type
Carver County Market Area
Boat, RV, van, etc.
Mobile home
20 or more units
10 to 19 units
5 to 9 units
3 or 4 units
2 units
1-unit, attached
1-unit, detached
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TABLE 25
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Housing Units 2,674 100%9,894 100%10,552 100%1,287 100%
1-unit, detached 2,351 87.9%6,965 70.4%6,146 58.2%1,200 93.2%
1-unit, attached 163 6.1%1,904 19.2%1,530 14.5%43 3.3%
2 units 0 0.0%68 0.7%144 1.4%12 0.9%
3 or 4 units 0 0.0%141 1.4%120 1.1%2 0.2%
5 to 9 units 27 1.0%110 1.1%334 3.2%0 0.0%
10 to 19 units 18 0.7%135 1.4%143 1.4%24 1.9%
20 or more units 68 2.5%532 5.4%1,521 14.4%0 0.0%
Mobile home 47 1.8%39 0.4%614 5.8%6 0.5%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Housing Units 1,918 100%1,780 100%4,292 100%5,191 100%
1-unit, detached 1,291 67.3%1,689 94.9%3,694 86.1%3,782 72.9%
1-unit, attached 224 11.7%23 1.3%332 7.7%612 11.8%
2 units 35 1.8%20 1.1%37 0.9%94 1.8%
3 or 4 units 70 3.6%14 0.8%85 2.0%67 1.3%
5 to 9 units 38 2.0%17 1.0%11 0.3%78 1.5%
10 to 19 units 9 0.5%3 0.2%18 0.4%145 2.8%
20 or more units 217 11.3%0 0.0%115 2.7%384 7.4%
Mobile home 34 1.8%10 0.6%0 0.0%11 0.2%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%4 0.2%0 0.0%18 0.3%
No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Housing Units 2,227 100%39,815 100%
1-unit, detached 1,889 84.8%29,046 73.0%
1-unit, attached 79 3.5%4,910 12.3%
2 units 0 0.0%410 1.0%
3 or 4 units 0 0.0%499 1.3%
5 to 9 units 49 2.2%664 1.7%
10 to 19 units 32 1.4%477 1.2%
20 or more units 86 3.9%2,934 7.4%
Mobile home 92 4.1%853 2.1%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%22 0.1%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
0.0%
2.1%
2.4%
4.0%
18.6%
1.2%
Pct.
100%
58.1%
11.1%
2.5%
Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.Victoria Waconia
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
Cologne
HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE TYPE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver Chanhassen Chaska
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Tenure by Structure Type
Information presented in the following table summarizes housing structure type of occupied
housing units by tenure (i.e. owner-occupied and renter-occupied) in Carver County and its sub-
markets compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Data is sourced from the 2017 -2021 ACS.
• Compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area, Carver County has relatively high proportions of
detached single-family units (both renter- and owner-occupied) as well as renter-occupied
attached single-family units. The proportion of renter-occupied units in larger structures
(i.e. ten or more units) is notably lower in the County than the Metro Area.
• Of the owner-occupied housing units in Carver County, 84% are single-unit, detached struc-
tures (26,619 owner-occupied units), ranging from 77% in Chaska to 98% in the Cologne and
Mayer – New Germany Submarkets.
• Attached single-family units comprise the second highest number of owner-occupied hous-
ing units in the County with 3,615 units (10% of all owner-occupied units).
- The Chanhassen Submarket contains the highest percentage of attached single-family
units (18% of all owner-occupied units), followed by Chaska at 13%. The Mayer – New
Germany Submarket has the lowest proportion, at just 1.0% of all owner-occupied units.
• An estimated 23% of the renter-occupied housing units in Carver County (1,510 units) are in
single-unit, detached structures, most notably while another 23% (1,519 units) are in struc-
tures with 50 or more units.
- Chaska contains the highest number of detached single-family renter-occupied units
(437), as well as the largest number of units in structures with 50 or more units (977).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Carver Co.
Owned
Metro Area
Owned
Carver Co.
Rented
Metro Area
Rented
Distribution of Occupied Housing Units by
Tenure & Structure Type
Boat, RV, van, etc.
Mobile home
50 or more units
20 or more units
10 to 19 units
5 to 9 units
3 or 4 units
2 units
1-unit, attached
1-unit, detached
115
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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TABLE 26
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Occupied Housing Units 2,548 100%9,406 100%10,336 100%1,253 100%1,812 100%1,713 100%
Owner-Occupied 2,301 90.3%8,262 87.8%7,288 70.5%1,149 91.7%1,381 76.2%1,577 92.1%
1-unit, detached 2,136 83.8%6,526 69.4%5,578 54.0%1,121 89.5%1,177 65.0%1,541 90.0%
1-unit, attached 163 6.4%1,458 15.5%960 9.3%20 1.6%153 8.4%16 0.9%
2 units 0 0.0%27 0.3%39 0.4%3 0.3%19 1.0%4 0.2%
3 or 4 units 0 0.0%36 0.4%8 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%1 0.1%
5 to 9 units 0 0.0%55 0.6%70 0.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%1 0.1%
10 to 19 units 0 0.0%37 0.4%13 0.1%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
20 to 49 units 0 0.0%50 0.5%82 0.8%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
50 or more units 0 0.0%34 0.4%31 0.3%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Mobile home 2 0.1%39 0.4%507 4.9%4 0.3%32 1.8%10 0.6%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%4 0.2%
Renter-Occupied 247 9.7%1,144 12.2%3,048 29.5%104 8.3%431 23.8%136 7.9%
1-unit, detached 134 5.3%233 2.5%437 4.2%65 5.2%56 3.1%95 5.5%
1-unit, attached 0 0.0%411 4.4%559 5.4%13 1.0%44 2.4%7 0.4%
2 units 0 0.0%16 0.2%105 1.0%6 0.5%14 0.8%10 0.6%
3 or 4 units 0 0.0%92 1.0%88 0.9%7 0.6%62 3.4%8 0.5%
5 to 9 units 27 1.1%55 0.6%264 2.6%0 0.0%38 2.1%13 0.8%
10 to 19 units 18 0.7%62 0.7%130 1.3%13 1.0%9 0.5%3 0.2%
20 to 49 units 0 0.0%97 1.0%381 3.7%0 0.0%79 4.4%0 0.0%
50 or more units 68 2.7%178 1.9%977 9.5%0 0.0%129 7.1%0 0.0%
Mobile home 0 0.0%0 0.0%107 1.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
--------------- continued ---------------
HOUSING UNIT STRUCTURE TYPE BY TENURE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-New Germ.
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No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total Occupied Housing Units 4,052 100%5,041 100%2,068 100%38,213 100%
Owner-Occupied 3,762 92.8%4,080 80.9%1,811 87.6%31,595 82.7%
1-unit, detached 3,395 83.8%3,507 69.6%1,662 80.4%26,619 69.7%
1-unit, attached 283 7.0%497 9.9%57 2.8%3,615 9.5%
2 units 37 0.9%0 0.0%0 0.0%128 0.3%
3 or 4 units 0 0.0%25 0.5%0 0.0%70 0.2%
5 to 9 units 0 0.0%28 0.6%0 0.0%154 0.4%
10 to 19 units 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%50 0.1%
20 to 49 units 47 1.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%179 0.5%
50 or more units 0 0.0%2 0.0%0 0.0%67 0.2%
Mobile home 0 0.0%3 0.1%92 4.4%691 1.8%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%18 0.4%0 0.0%22 0.1%
Renter-Occupied 290 7.2%961 19.1%257 12.4%6,618 17.3%
1-unit, detached 129 3.2%173 3.4%154 7.4%1,510 4.0%
1-unit, attached 21 0.5%115 2.3%22 1.1%1,194 3.1%
2 units 0 0.0%94 1.9%0 0.0%249 0.7%
3 or 4 units 85 2.1%42 0.8%0 0.0%379 1.0%
5 to 9 units 11 0.3%50 1.0%49 2.4%507 1.3%
10 to 19 units 18 0.4%145 2.9%32 1.5%388 1.0%
20 to 49 units 11 0.3%169 3.4%0 0.0%765 2.0%
50 or more units 15 0.4%173 3.4%0 0.0%1,519 4.0%
Mobile home 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%107 0.3%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
1.8%
10.1%
3.0%
1.7%
1.5%
1.8%
3.6%
Pct.
100%
69.1%
55.4%
8.2%
0.3%
0.7%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
30.9%
3.8%
Waconia Watertown Carver County Metro Area
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
TABLE continued
HOUSING UNIT STRUCTURE TYPE BY TENURE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Victoria
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Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value
The following table presents data on owner-occupied home values summarized in ranges and
median value for Carver County and its submarkets compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area.
Home value reflects the owner’s estimate of how much the property (house and lot or condo-
minium unit) would sell for if it were for sale. The information is sourced from the 2017-2021
American Community Survey.
• The estimated median value of owner-occupied housing units in Carver County ($353,300
during the 2017-2021 ACS period) in 19% higher than the estimated value of $297,239
across the Metro Area.
• Median home values are generally highest in the eastern portion of Carver County, notably
in the Victoria ($470,092), Chanhassen ($426,200), and Carver ($360,910) Submarkets.
• The northern and western county subdivisions have the lowest median home values, includ-
ing the Hamburg – Norwood Young America ($241,733), Watertown ($273,615), and Mayer
– New Germany ($293,867) Submarkets.
• Median home values in the Victoria, Chanhassen, Carver, Waconia, Cologne, and Chaska
Submarkets are all higher than the Metro Area, while the Hamburg – Norwood Young Amer-
ica, Watertown, and Mayer – New Germany Submarkets all have median home values that
are lower than the Region. $360,910$426,200$310,800$317,051$241,733$293,867$470,092$351,812$273,615$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Median Home Value
Carver County Market Area
Carver County: $353,300
Metro Area: $297,239
118
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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TABLE 27
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:2,301 100%8,262 100%7,288 100%1,133 100%
Median Home Value $360,910 $426,200 $310,800 $317,051
Less than $50,000 16 0.7%61 0.7%536 7.4%14 1.2%
$50,000 to $99,999 23 1.0%10 0.1%174 2.4%15 1.3%
$100,000 to $149,999 108 4.7%151 1.8%387 5.3%35 3.1%
$150,000 to $199,999 73 3.2%427 5.2%588 8.1%86 7.6%
$200,000 to $299,999 511 22.2%1,442 17.5%1,786 24.5%393 34.7%
$300,000 to $499,999 1,234 53.6%3,127 37.8%2,616 35.9%472 41.7%
$500,000 to $999,999 254 11.0%2,480 30.0%1,159 15.9%86 7.6%
$1,000,000 or more 82 3.6%564 6.8%42 0.6%32 2.8%
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:1,381 100%1,577 100%3,762 100%4,080 100%
Median Home Value $241,733 $293,867 $470,092 $351,812
Less than $50,000 123 8.9%73 4.6%38 1.0%57 1.4%
$50,000 to $99,999 12 0.9%19 1.2%12 0.3%0 0.0%
$100,000 to $149,999 154 11.2%55 3.5%5 0.1%80 2.0%
$150,000 to $199,999 220 15.9%137 8.7%103 2.7%140 3.4%
$200,000 to $299,999 430 31.1%646 41.0%470 12.5%1,163 28.5%
$300,000 to $499,999 338 24.5%448 28.4%1,498 39.8%2,013 49.3%
$500,000 to $999,999 97 7.0%185 11.7%1,505 40.0%575 14.1%
$1,000,000 or more 7 0.5%14 0.9%131 3.5%52 1.3%
No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:1,811 100%31,595 100%
Median Home Value $273,615 $353,300
Less than $50,000 91 5.0%1,009 3.2%
$50,000 to $99,999 85 4.7%350 1.1%
$100,000 to $149,999 118 6.5%1,093 3.5%
$150,000 to $199,999 218 12.0%1,992 6.3%
$200,000 to $299,999 697 38.5%7,538 23.9%
$300,000 to $499,999 470 26.0%12,216 38.7%
$500,000 to $999,999 115 6.4%6,456 20.4%
$1,000,000 or more 17 0.9%941 3.0%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Pct.
100%
$297,239
2.6%
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
1.7%
4.5%
11.5%
31.9%
33.8%
12.3%
1.9%
Hamburg - NYA Mayer - New Germ.Victoria Waconia
OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY VALUE
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
119
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• The following map illustrates median home value by Census Block Group in Carver County
based on estimates from the 2017-2021 ACS.
• As shown, median home values are highest in portions of Victoria, Chaska, and Chanhassen
and lowest in portions of Chaska and Young America Township in the southwestern corner
of the County.
Estimated Median Home Value
120
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• In Carver County, there are 12,216 owner-occupied housing units valued in the $300,000 to
$499,999 range comprising the largest proportion of owner-occupied units in the County
(39%).
- Another 24% of the units are valued in the $200,000 to $299,999 range and units valued
between $500,000 and $999,999 represent 20% of all owner -occupied units in the
County.
• Housing units valued in the $300,000 to $499,999 range comprise the highest proportion of
owner-occupied units in the majority of the Carver County submarkets, including the Carver
(54%), Chanhassen (38%), Chaska (36%), Cologne (42%), and Waconia (49%) Submarkets.
• In the Hamburg – Norwood Young America, Mayer – New Germany, and Watertown Sub-
markets, owner-occupied units valued in the $200,000 to $299,999 are most common, at
31%, 41%, and 38%, respectively.
• In the Victoria Submarket, owner-occupied units valued in the $500,000 to $999,999 range
represent the largest share (40%).
• The Chaska, Hamburg – Norwood Young America, and Watertown Submarkets contain the
largest proportions of units valued below $100,000 (each at 10% of the owner-occupied
units), while the Chanhassen and Carver Submarkets have the highest proportion of units
valued at $1.0 million or higher, at 7% and 4%, respectively.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-New Germ.
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value
Carver County Submarkets
Less than $50,000
$50,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 to $299,999
$300,000 to $499,999
$500,000 to $999,999
$1,000,000 or more
121
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Renter-Occupied Units by Contract Rent
The table on the following page presents information on the monthly contract rent (also known
as asking rent) for renter-occupied housing units in Carver County and its submarkets compared
to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Contract rent is the monthly rent agreed to regardless of any
utilities, furnishings, fees, or services that may be included. Data is sourced from the 201 7-
2021 American Community Survey.
• Based on ACS data, there are an estimated 6,618 renter-occupied housing units in Carver
County, with the largest number of units being located in Chaska with 3,048 (46% of all
renter-occupied units in the County), followed by Chanhassen with 1,144 units (15%), and
Waconia with 961 units (15%).
• The median contract rent in Carver County was $1,164 during the 2017-2021 ACS period,
roughly 2% higher than the Twin Cities Metro Area ($1,142).
• Based on a 30% allocation of income to housing, a household in Carver County would need
an income of about $46,560 to afford the median monthly contract rent of $1,164. By com-
parison, a household would need an income of $45,662 to afford the median contract rent
in the Metro Area.
• Approximately 97% of Carver County renters are paying cash rent, with 3% paying no cash
rent. In the Metro Area, 98% of renter-occupied households pay cash rent, while 2% pay no
cash rent. Housing units without payment of rent (“no cash rent”) are typically units owned
by a relative or friend who lives elsewhere whom allow occupancy without charge. Other
sources may include caretakers or ministers who may occupy a residence without charge.
Carver, 4%
Chanhassen, 17%
Chaska, 46%
Cologne, 2%
Hamburg-NYA, 6%
Mayer-NG, 2%
Victoria, 4%
Waconia, 15%
Watertown, 4%
Renter -Occupied Housing Unit Distribution by Submarket
Carver County
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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TABLE 28
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:247 100%1,144 100%3,048 100%104 100%
Median Contract Rent $1,108 $1,390 $1,164 $519
Less than $250 0 0.0%15 1.3%50 1.6%35 33.7%
$250 to $499 5 2.0%0 0.0%290 9.5%13 12.5%
$500 to $749 27 10.9%27 2.4%119 3.9%17 16.3%
$750 to $999 39 15.8%50 4.4%569 18.7%0 0.0%
$1,000 to $1,249 78 31.6%202 17.7%703 23.1%8 7.7%
$1,250 to $1,499 7 2.8%445 38.9%287 9.4%14 13.5%
$1,500 to $1,999 3 1.2%224 19.6%757 24.8%0 0.0%
$2,000 or more 59 23.9%122 10.7%205 6.7%2 1.9%
No cash rent 29 11.7%59 5.2%68 2.2%15 14.4%
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:431 100%136 100%290 100%961 100%
Median Contract Rent $959 $860 $1,647 $1,020
Less than $250 0 0.0%3 2.2%0 0.0%67 7.0%
$250 to $499 0 0.0%5 3.7%5 1.7%109 11.3%
$500 to $749 112 26.0%40 29.4%19 6.6%70 7.3%
$750 to $999 122 28.3%27 19.9%67 23.1%217 22.6%
$1,000 to $1,249 106 24.6%23 16.9%22 7.6%176 18.3%
$1,250 to $1,499 68 15.8%14 10.3%15 5.2%153 15.9%
$1,500 to $1,999 0 0.0%5 3.7%48 16.6%156 16.2%
$2,000 or more 23 5.3%0 0.0%99 34.1%13 1.4%
No cash rent 0 0.0%19 14.0%15 5.2%0 0.0%
No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total:257 100%6,618 100%
Median Contract Rent $766 $1,164
Less than $250 16 6.2%186 2.8%
$250 to $499 71 27.6%498 7.5%
$500 to $749 52 20.2%483 7.3%
$750 to $999 53 20.6%1,144 17.3%
$1,000 to $1,249 39 15.2%1,357 20.5%
$1,250 to $1,499 13 5.1%1,016 15.4%
$1,500 to $1,999 0 0.0%1,193 18.0%
$2,000 or more 5 1.9%528 8.0%
No cash rent 8 3.1%213 3.2%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Pct.
100%
$1,142
3.3%
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
5.7%
6.6%
21.7%
20.9%
16.6%
16.4%
6.6%
2.3%
Hamburg - NYA Mayer - New Germ.Victoria Waconia
Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
RENTER-OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY CONTRACT RENT
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver
123
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 114
• As depicted in the following graph, the Victoria and Chanhassen Submarkets have the high-
est median monthly contract rent, at $1,647 and $1,390, respectively, while the lowest me-
dian contract rents are found in the Cologne ($519) and Watertown ($766) Submarkets.
• Based on a 30% allocation of income to housing, household incomes would need to range
from $20,767 (Cologne) to $65,897 (Victoria) to afford the median monthly contract rent in
each submarket. The following figure illustrates minimum household incomes required to
afford the median contract rent in each submarket.
• The largest proportion of renter-occupied housing units have monthly contract rents in the
$1,000 to $1,249 range in Carver County (21%), followed by rents in the $1,500 to $1,999
range. The following figure summarizes the rent ranges with the highest number of renter-
occupied housing units by submarket in Carver County:
Submarket Most Common Monthly Rent Range
Carver $1,000 to $1,249 (32% of all renter-occupied units)
Chanhassen $1,250 to $1,499 (39%)
Chaska $1,500 to $1,999 (25%)
Cologne Less than $250 (34%)
Hamburg-Norwood Young America $750 to $999 (28%)
Mayer-New Germany $500 to $749 (29%)
Victoria $2,000 or more (34%)
Waconia $750 to $999 (23%)
Watertown $$250 to $499 (28%)
$1,108
$1,390
$1,164
$519
$959 $860
$1,647
$1,020
$766
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Carver County
Median Contract Rent by Submarket
Submarket Income Submarket Income Submarket Income
Carver $44,335 Cologne $20,767 Victoria $65,897
Chanhassen $55,600 Hamburg-NYA $38,374 Waconia $40,800
Chaska $46,560 Mayer-NG $34,402 Watertown $30,648
124
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Age of Housing Stock
Information in the table on the following page is sourced from the 2017 - 2021 American Com-
munity Survey (ACS). The table includes the number of housing units built prior to 1940 and
during each subsequent decade in Carver County and its submarkets compared to the Metro
Area. The Census Bureau began collecting year-built data in 1940. Housing unit is defined as a
house, an apartment, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied or intended for occupancy as
separate living quarters.
• As depicted in the following chart, housing production in Carver County increased gradually
from the 1940s through the 1970s, before taking off in the 1970s and accelerating through
the 2000s, with over 25% of the housing units being built from 2000 through 2009.
• Housing unit production declined from 2010 through 2019, with units built during the dec-
ade representing 13% of Carver County’s housing stock.
• By comparison, the 1980s was the most active decade in the Metro Area with 15% of the
housing supply being building between 1980 and 1989.
• In Carver County, roughly 7% of the housing units (2,928 units) were built prior to 1940,
compared to 14% in the Metro Area. Within the County, the Watertown and Mayer – New
Germany Submarkets had the largest percentages of homes built prior to 1940, at 22% and
20%, respectively.
- While many homes built before 1940 may be in good condition, housing units this age
are at risk of becoming substandard or functionally obsolete and maintenance costs are
generally higher.
'20+'10-'19'00-'09'90-'99'89-'89'70-'79'60-'69'50-'59'40-'49<'40
Carver Co.0.2%13.0%25.1%19.9%15.3%8.5%5.3%3.8%1.5%7.4%
Metro Area 0.2%6.9%11.7%13.3%14.6%14.2%10.5%10.3%4.0%14.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Housing Units by Decade Built
Carver County Market Area
125
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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TABLE 29
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total 2,674 100%9,894 100%10,552 100%1,287 100%
2020 or later 29 1.1%0 0.0%11 0.1%0 0.0%
2010 to 2019 345 12.9%888 9.0%1,258 11.9%314 24.4%
2000 to 2009 869 32.5%1,699 17.2%3,003 28.5%207 16.1%
1990 to 1999 435 16.3%3,012 30.4%2,035 19.3%225 17.5%
1980 to 1989 164 6.1%2,374 24.0%2,259 21.4%64 5.0%
1970 to 1979 163 6.1%645 6.5%1,029 9.8%62 4.8%
1960 to 1969 106 4.0%532 5.4%346 3.3%85 6.6%
1950 to 1959 187 7.0%354 3.6%194 1.8%56 4.4%
1940 to 1949 19 0.7%193 2.0%43 0.4%35 2.7%
1939 or earlier 357 13.4%197 2.0%374 3.5%239 18.6%
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total 1,918 100%1,780 100%4,292 100%5,191 100%
2020 or later 0 0.0%6 0.3%43 1.0%2 0.0%
2010 to 2019 239 12.5%252 14.2%1,098 25.6%696 13.4%
2000 to 2009 293 15.3%533 29.9%1,174 27.4%1,723 33.2%
1990 to 1999 227 11.8%124 7.0%631 14.7%930 17.9%
1980 to 1989 157 8.2%76 4.3%361 8.4%363 7.0%
1970 to 1979 297 15.5%169 9.5%323 7.5%423 8.1%
1960 to 1969 111 5.8%101 5.7%337 7.9%395 7.6%
1950 to 1959 145 7.6%94 5.3%136 3.2%180 3.5%
1940 to 1949 72 3.8%63 3.5%15 0.3%129 2.5%
1939 or earlier 377 19.7%362 20.3%174 4.1%350 6.7%
No.Pct.No.Pct.
Total 2,227 100%39,815 100%
2020 or later 0 0.0%91 0.2%
2010 to 2019 81 3.6%5,171 13.0%
2000 to 2009 496 22.3%9,997 25.1%
1990 to 1999 306 13.7%7,925 19.9%
1980 to 1989 284 12.8%6,102 15.3%
1970 to 1979 258 11.6%3,369 8.5%
1960 to 1969 102 4.6%2,115 5.3%
1950 to 1959 162 7.3%1,508 3.8%
1940 to 1949 40 1.8%609 1.5%
1939 or earlier 498 22.4%2,928 7.4%
Sources: 2017-2021 American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Hamburg - NYA Mayer - New Germ.Victoria Waconia
HOUSING UNITS BY YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
Pct.
100%
0.2%
6.9%
11.7%
13.3%
14.2%
14.6%
14.2%
10.5%
10.3%
4.0%
126
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 117
• The housing stock in Carver County is relatively new when compared to the Metro Area.
Over 58% of the County’s housing inventory has been constructed since 1990, compared to
32% in the Metro Area. Generally, county subdivisions on the east side of Carver County
have newer housing stocks than the communities in the western portion of the County.
• The Victoria Submarket has some of the newest housing in the County, with 26% of its in-
ventory being building from 2010 through 2019 and 27% of the units were built in the
2000s.
• The largest number of housing units in the Carver Submarket were constructed in the 2000s
(33% of the total), followed by the 1990s (15%). Similarly, the 2000s was the most active
decade in the Waconia Submarket (33%), followed by the 1990s (18%).
• The 2000s was all the most active decade in the Chaska (29%) and Mayer – New Germany
(30%) Submarkets, while the 1980s was the second most active decade in Chaska (21%). In
the Mayer – New Germany Submarket, the second highest number of housing units were
built prior to 1940 (20%). In Chanhassen, 30% of the units were built in the 1990s and 24%
opened in the 1980s.
• Housing units built prior to 1940 were most common in the Hamburg – Norwood Young
America (20%) and Watertown (22%) Submarkets, while the second most active a decade
was the 1970s in (16%) in Hamburg – Norwood Young America and the 2000s (22%) in the
Watertown Submarket.
• In the Cologne Submarket, the 2010s represented the most active decade (24%), while 19%
of the units in the Submarket were built prior to 1940.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Housing Units by Decade Built
Carver County Submarkets
'20+
'10-'19
'00-'09
'90-'99
'89-'89
'70-'79
'60-'69
'50-'59
'40-'49
<'40
127
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Residential Building Permit Trends
Maxfield Research obtained data from the Metropolitan Council on the number of building per-
mits issued for new housing units in Carver County by submarket from 2010 through 2022, the
most recent information available. The table on the following pages displays the number of
units permitted for detached single-family homes, townhome units, and multifamily structures.
Permits issued for accessory dwelling units are excluded from this analysis.
Detached single-family is defined as a fully detached housing unit, while townhomes are consid-
ered attached single-family units. Multifamily includes buildings with five or more units and
units in structures classified as a duplex, triplex, or quad . A multifamily structure is generally
defined as a residential building containing units built one on top of another and those built
side-by-side which do not have a ground-to-roof wall and/or have common facilities.
• A total of 9,571 residential housing units were permitted in Carver County between 2010
and 2022, averaging 736 new units per year.
• The pace of residential development in the County has accelerated through the decade, av-
eraging 537 permitted units per year during the five-year period from 2010 through 2014,
increasing to 803 units per year, on average, from 2015 through 2019. The County aver-
aged 956 new units annually from 2020 through 2022.
• The type of product being built in the County has shifted slightly over the past several years.
- From 2010 through 2014, nearly three-quarters (73%) of the permitted units were de-
tached single-family, while 19% were townhome units, and 8% were multifamily units.
Multifamily activity has increased to 23% of all units since 2015, while detached single-
family and townhome units declined to 65% and 12% of all permitted units, respectively.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Carver County Residential Permit Trends
2010-2022
Detached Single-family Townhomes Multifamily
128
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TABLE 30
Submarket 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Ann. Avg.
Carver (Total)36 46 39 42 26 97 81 48 53 207 175 202 118 90
Detached Single-family 24 46 33 30 17 17 60 48 53 137 175 202 70 70
Townhomes 12 0 6 12 9 12 21 0 0 0 0 0 48 9
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 11
Chanhassen (Total)101 166 185 190 183 104 124 67 371 57 67 210 48 144
Detached Single-family 71 104 107 89 57 80 46 55 48 39 67 98 46 70
Townhomes 30 62 78 76 102 4 2 12 55 18 0 0 0 34
Multifamily 0 0 0 25 24 20 76 0 268 0 0 110 0 40
Chaska (Total)43 54 173 148 163 271 175 101 194 113 113 226 352 164
Detached Single-family 43 54 115 130 135 131 128 79 54 113 105 182 153 109
Townhomes 0 0 4 4 22 2 47 22 23 0 8 44 24 15
Multifamily 0 0 54 14 6 138 0 0 117 0 0 0 175 39
Cologne (Total)5 0 0 21 24 8 18 39 25 23 9 10 13 15
Detached Single-family 5 0 0 21 24 8 18 39 25 23 9 10 13 15
Townhomes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hamburg-NYA (Total)3 2 10 17 8 48 20 27 16 17 32 10 5 17
Detached Single-family 3 2 10 17 8 12 18 11 10 9 24 4 3 10
Townhomes 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 16 6 8 8 6 2 4
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Mayer-New Germany (Total)1 7 18 14 23 32 48 47 38 28 37 13 13 25
Detached Single-family 1 7 18 14 19 30 48 43 34 24 33 11 9 22
Townhomes 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 4 4 4 2 4 2
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT TRENDS
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2010-2022
--------------- continued ---------------
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Submarket 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Ann. Avg.
Victoria (Total)55 69 78 119 111 85 120 281 173 227 168 145 138 136
Detached Single-family 45 54 60 95 111 85 116 164 136 112 119 91 106 100
Townhomes 10 15 18 24 0 0 4 36 36 63 49 54 32 26
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 0 52 0 0 0 10
Waconia (Total)46 129 90 110 87 101 152 74 71 76 47 205 393 122
Detached Single-family 46 32 88 106 87 97 108 71 51 25 31 137 149 79
Townhomes 0 0 2 4 0 4 9 3 20 0 16 8 34 8
Multifamily 0 97 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 51 0 60 210 35
Watertown (Total)7 9 1 6 21 16 22 50 36 37 60 47 16 25
Detached Single-family 7 9 1 4 15 16 22 48 36 25 36 47 16 22
Townhomes 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 2 0 12 24 0 0 4
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carver County (Total)297 482 594 667 646 762 760 734 976 785 708 1,066 1,094 736
Detached Single-family 245 308 432 506 473 476 564 558 447 507 599 782 565 497
Townhomes 52 77 108 122 139 24 85 95 144 105 109 114 144 101
Multifamily 0 97 54 39 34 262 111 81 385 173 0 170 385 138
Sources: Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT TRENDS
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2010-2022
TABLE continued
130
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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• Since 2010, Chaska has experienced the most residential development activity, issuing per-
mits for 2,126 new units (22% of the County’s total), followed by Chanhassen with 1,873
units (20%), the Victoria Submarket with 1,769 units (18%), and the Waconia Submarket
with 1,581 units (17%).
• As depicted in the following chart, residential development activity varies greatly between
submarkets, with the communities in the eastern portion of the County generally experienc-
ing more building activity than in the western portion of the County.
• On an average annual basis, housing unit construction ranges from as high as 164 units per
year in Chaska to 15 new units per year in the Cologne Submarket.
• Multifamily development activity has been strongest in Chanhassen, averaging 40 new units
per year, Chaska (39 units/year), and the Waconia Submarket (35 units/year).
• Chaska (109 units/year) and Victoria (100 units/year) were the most active detached single-
family Submarkets, while permitting activity for new townhomes was strongest in the
Chanhassen (34 units/year) and Victoria (26 units/year) Submarkets.
• Based on the percentage of all units permitted, detached single-family activity was strong-
est in the Cologne (100% of the permitted units), Hamburg – Norwood Young America
(91%), and Watertown (86%) Submarkets. Multifamily activity was strongest in the
Chanhassen (28%), Waconia (29%), and Chaska (24%) Submarkets.
• Note that there were also five accessory dwelling units permitted in Carver County between
2010 and 2022 (four in Chanhassen and one in Victoria).
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Average Annual Housing Units Permitted by Submarket
Carver County: 2010 -2022
Detached SF
Townhome
Multifamily
90
144
164
15
17
25
136
122
25
131
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 122
The following photographs represent a sample of the housing stock Carver County.
Pre-1940’s single-family homes in Cologne 1960’s era single-family homes in Hamburg
New construction detached single-family
neighborhood in Watertown
New construction detached single-family
homes in Waconia
Newer attached single-family twin homes in
Mayer
Attached single-family side-by-side town-
homes in Norwood Young America
132
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
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Photographs representing a sample of the housing stock in Carver County continued.
Owned multifamily condominium structure in
Chaska
New construction multifamily apartment
building in Waconia
Newer multifamily apartment building in Vic-
toria
1970s era, 18-unit multifamily apartment
building in Carver
1980s era, eight-unit multifamily apartment
building in New Germany
1960s era, four-unit multifamily apartment
building in Hamburg
133
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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For-Sale Market Analysis
Introduction
Maxfield Research analyzed the for-sale housing market in Carver County and its submarkets by
collecting data on home sales, home listings, and the supply of residential lots in the area. This
section of the report reviews recent home sale trends against the supply of available for-sale
housing in the County, including detached single-family and multifamily housing. For the pur-
poses of this analysis, housing sales data for townhomes and twin homes (i.e. attached single-
family) are combined with sales information for condominium units under the “multifamily” de-
scription. This section evaluates for-sale housing market conditions in Carver County by exam-
ining the following data.
Home resale trends
The supply of homes currently listed as available for sale
A review and analysis of actively marketing subdivisions
Information on new construction sales activity
Data was collected in November 2023. Information on home resales and active listings was ob-
tained from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and includes all transactions sold
through a Realtor which generally accounts for 90% to 95% of all home sales. Private sales (not
sold on the Multiple Listing Service by a Realtor) are not included. Residential subdivision data
was sourced from Zonda (formerly known as Metrostudy), a homebuilding consulting company
that maintains a database of all subdivision activity in the greater Twin Cities Metro Area.
134
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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Home Resale Trends
The following table presents home resale (excludes new construction sales) data from 2017
through October 2023 for Carver County compared to the seven-county Twin Cities Metro Area.
The table displays the median resale price, number of closed transactions and marketing times
(average days on market) for all detached single-family and multifamily (i.e townhomes, twin
homes, condominiums) resales.
• From 2017 through October 2023, there were 10,948 residential resales in Carver County,
representing approximately 4% of all resales in the Twin Cities Metro Area (305,914 total
resales).
• In Carver County, 73% of all resales (7,977) since 2017 have been detached single-family
homes, while 27% (2,971) were resales of multifamily units. Similarly, in the Metro Area
72% of the resales were detached single-family and 28% were multifamily units.
TABLE 31
Median
Sale Price
%
Change
Closed
Sales
%
Change
Avg. Days
on Market
Median
Sale Price
%
Change
Closed
Sales
%
Change
Avg. Days
on Market
2023 ytd*$489,900 1.0%711 --25 $395,133 2.4%19,950 --32
2022 $485,000 5.9%1,028 -19.6%19 $386,000 5.8%29,579 -20.1%24
2021 $458,000 18.1%1,279 -7.7%16 $365,000 10.8%37,018 2.6%22
2020 $387,750 5.9%1,386 17.4%31 $329,500 8.9%36,091 10.0%37
2019 $366,000 4.6%1,181 2.1%37 $302,500 5.8%32,806 1.7%45
2018 $350,000 0.0%1,157 -6.3%38 $286,000 6.7%32,260 -5.3%45
2017 $349,900 --1,235 --44 $268,000 --34,062 --54
2023 ytd*$310,000 6.3%294 --24 $274,335 3.5%8,277 --43
2022 $291,500 9.8%354 -24.8%19 $265,000 7.1%11,002 -20.1%35
2021 $265,500 14.9%471 5.6%19 $247,500 10.0%13,762 10.8%33
2020 $231,000 3.8%446 3.2%30 $225,000 6.1%12,423 -1.3%36
2019 $222,500 7.5%432 -5.3%28 $212,000 7.6%12,589 -2.3%37
2018 $207,064 6.2%456 -12.0%28 $197,000 7.7%12,888 -2.4%36
2017 $194,900 --518 --29 $183,000 --13,207 --43
*2023 through October 31
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Detached Single-family
Multifamily (townhomes, twin homes, condos, etc.)
RESIDENTIAL RESALES
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2017 - 2023
Carver County Twin Cities Metro Area
135
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Sales activity in Carver County was fairly steady from 2017 through 2021, averaging 143 re-
sales per month, ranging from a low of 134 resales in 2018 and 2019 to a high of 153 resales
in 2020.
• Due, in part to rising mortgage rates and reduced supply, sales activity in the County de-
clined to 115 resales per month in 2022, a -21% decrease from 2021. Sales activity dropped
another -13% in 2023, averaging 101 resales per month during the first ten months of the
year.
• In the Twin Cities Metro Area, the number of resales per month decreased -20% in 2022
and -17% through the first ten months of 2023.
• Marketing times declined sharply in Carver County between 2017 and 2021, as the average
number of days on market for detached single-family homes dropped from 44 days in 2017
to 16 days in 2021. Similarly, multifamily listings sold in 29 days, on average, in 2017, de-
clining to an average of 19 days on market in 2021.
• As sales activity declined, marketing times increased slightly the past two years in Carver
County. Marketing times for detached single-family units increased to 19 days on market in
2022 and 25 days on market in 2023. Multifamily marketing times increased from 19 days
on market in 2022 to 24 days on market in 2023.
• In the Metro Area, detached single-family marketing times decreased from 54 days on mar-
ket in 2017 to 22 days in 2021, before increasing to 32 days on market in 2023. Multifamily
marketing times declined from 43 days in 2017 to 33 days in 2021, before increasing to 43
days in 2023.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Carver Co.146 134 134 153 146 115 101
Metro Area 3,939 3,762 3,783 4,043 4,232 3,382 2,823
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Metro Area Resales/Mo.Carver County Resales/Mo.Residential Resales/Month
Carver County Market Area
136
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Increasing competition for homes in the Market Area (as indicated by the decreasing supply
of available housing and shortened marketing times) has caused strong sale price apprecia-
tion in recent years.
• In Carver County the median resale price for detached single-family homes increased 40%,
climbing from $349,900 in 2017 to $489,900 in 2023, averaging 5.9% increases annually.
• The median resale price for multifamily units jumped 59% (8.1% average annual increases),
from $194,900 in 2017 to $310,000 in 2023.
• The median resale price for detached single-family homes in Carver County ($489,900 in
2023) is 24% higher than the Metro Area median price of $395,133, while the median price
for multifamily units in the County ($310,000) is 13% higher than the Metro Area median
price of $274,335.
• In the Metro Area, the median detached single-family resale price increased 47% (6.7% an-
nually, on average) from 2017 to 2023, while the multifamily median price appreciated 50%
(7.0% annual increases, on average).
The table on the following pages presents home resale data from 2017 through October 2023
for each of the nine submarkets in Carver County. The table displays the median resale price,
number of closed transactions, and average marketing times by year for detached single-family
resales and multifamily resales.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Carver Co. Detached SF $349,900 $350,000 $366,000 $387,750 $458,000 $485,000 $489,900
Carver Co. Multifamily $194,900 $207,064 $222,500 $231,000 $265,500 $291,500 $310,000
Metro Area Detached SF $268,000 $286,000 $302,500 $329,500 $365,000 $386,000 $395,133
Metro Area Multifamily $183,000 $197,000 $212,000 $225,000 $247,500 $265,000 $274,335
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Median Resale Price Trends
Carver County Market Area
137
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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TABLE 32
Submarket
Year
Closed
Sales
Median
Resale Price
Avg. Days on
Market
Closed
Sales
Median
Resale Price
Avg. Days on
Market
Carver
2023 ytd*47 $455,000 28 10 $331,000 28
2022 69 $477,000 21 12 $274,990 17
2021 73 $453,000 22 17 $280,000 18
2020 105 $375,000 35 14 $298,000 44
2019 79 $365,000 34 14 $222,950 29
2018 85 $354,600 36 18 $246,000 23
2017 93 $345,000 38 17 $200,000 27
Chanhassen
2023 ytd*176 $644,500 23 118 $313,500 23
2022 244 $631,250 17 118 $314,000 16
2021 330 $581,500 17 186 $287,000 17
2020 306 $525,000 33 167 $267,000 32
2019 312 $490,683 44 172 $239,900 25
2018 286 $470,766 43 172 $220,000 25
2017 303 $465,000 46 199 $205,000 25
Chaska
2023 ytd*164 $455,000 21 88 $295,000 21
2022 247 $470,000 18 137 $282,500 19
2021 302 $433,500 14 158 $257,450 20
2020 320 $381,510 31 155 $220,000 29
2019 271 $349,900 30 144 $212,000 27
2018 252 $330,000 39 152 $195,100 28
2017 270 $340,000 38 175 $189,900 31
Cologne
2023 ytd*21 $379,000 34 2 $286,750 34
2022 34 $400,500 22 1 $282,500 102
2021 46 $367,500 25 4 $252,500 17
2020 50 $299,950 24 1 $210,000 139
2019 50 $322,500 35 0 ----
2018 49 $286,000 37 0 ----
2017 31 $230,400 52 2 $190,450 1
Hamburg-NYA
2023 ytd*42 $300,000 36 7 $264,900 50
2022 56 $252,000 25 5 $275,000 21
2021 62 $256,500 18 5 $215,000 37
2020 76 $218,000 27 9 $157,500 45
2019 64 $205,000 42 7 $192,500 51
2018 64 $194,500 36 4 $184,900 47
2017 80 $206,250 64 7 $179,000 19
RESIDENTIAL RESALES
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2017 - 2023
Detached Single-family Multifamily
--------------- continued ---------------
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Submarket
Year
Closed
Sales
Median
Resale Price
Avg. Days on
Market
Closed
Sales
Median
Resale Price
Avg. Days on
Market
Mayer-New Germ.
2023 ytd*37 $347,500 35 3 $329,900 33
2022 45 $335,000 19 5 $295,000 28
2021 43 $322,000 9 2 $288,750 32
2020 65 $288,900 40 3 $239,000 31
2019 51 $268,000 38 1 $190,900 91
2018 47 $260,000 46 3 $205,000 108
2017 61 $234,000 37 2 $187,450 39
Victoria
2023 ytd*96 $636,000 28 27 $405,000 25
2022 134 $651,750 21 33 $380,000 22
2021 158 $595,450 18 42 $367,950 32
2020 171 $509,900 28 26 $357,950 31
2019 131 $495,000 39 42 $297,450 39
2018 126 $455,000 43 34 $275,000 26
2017 148 $447,250 57 36 $277,500 40
Waconia
2023 ytd*89 $472,000 22 35 $250,000 24
2022 142 $431,000 17 39 $264,500 15
2021 181 $418,900 12 44 $219,000 13
2020 215 $355,000 24 61 $200,000 21
2019 151 $328,000 33 45 $194,500 30
2018 184 $324,500 29 63 $185,000 32
2017 181 $323,600 37 72 $169,450 29
Watertown
2023 ytd*39 $370,500 27 4 $303,750 23
2022 57 $359,900 19 4 $285,950 30
2021 84 $330,000 14 13 $240,000 10
2020 78 $297,500 37 10 $198,950 15
2019 72 $259,000 41 7 $210,000 31
2018 64 $265,000 31 10 $166,450 19
2017 68 $239,900 41 8 $177,000 55
*2023 through October 31
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
RESIDENTIAL RESALES
CARVER COUNTY SUBMARKETS
2017 - 2023
Detached Single-family Multifamily
139
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Resales activity was strongest in Chanhassen with a total of 3,089 resales since 2017 (28% of
all County sales during that time), followed by Chaska with 2,835 resales (26%) and Waconia
with 1,502 resales (13%).
• The pace of resales in the County ranges from highs of 37.5 month in Chanhassen and 34.4
resales per month in Chaska to lows of 3.5 and 4.5 resales per month in the Cologne and
Mayer-New Germany Submarkets, respectively.
• As noted previously, 73% of the resales in Carver County since 2017 were detached single-
family homes and 27% were multifamily units.
- The proportion of detached single-family resales to all resales ranges from 63% in
Chanhassen (37% multifamily) and 64% in Chaska (36% multifamily) to 97% and 95% in
the Cologne (3% multifamily) and Mayer – New Germany (5% multifamily) Submarkets.
• Sales volume, which peaked in 2020 and 2021, experienced notable declines during 2022
and 2023 across all nine of the submarkets in Carver County.
• Average marketing times have declined across the County, with the number of days on mar-
ket for detached single-family homes ranging from as low as 21 days in Chaska to 36 days in
the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket in 2023.
• Average multifamily marketing times range from 21 days on market in Chaska to 50 days on
market in the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket.
6.7
23.7 22.1
3.4 5.4 4.2
11.7 13.8
5.6
1.2
13.8
12.2
0.1
0.5 0.2
2.9
4.4
0.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Average Residential Resales/Month by Submarket
2017 -2023
Multifamily
Detached SF
140
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• As illustrated in the following graph, 2023 median resale prices for detached single-family
homes are highest in the Chanhassen ($644,500) and Victoria ($636,000) Submarkets.
Strong price appreciation occurred across the County, with the Cologne Submarket experi-
encing the largest increase as the median resale price jumped 64% between 2017 and 2023.
• Median resale prices for multifamily units are highest in the Victoria ($405,000) and Carver
($331,000) Submarkets. Strong price appreciation occurred in every Submarket, with the
Watertown Submarket experiencing the largest increase, as the median resale price jumped
72% between 2017 and 2023.
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Median Detached Single-Family Resale Price Trends
Carver County Submarkets
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Median Multifamily Resale Price Trends
Carver County Submarkets
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
141
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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The following table summarizes residential resales in Carver County from 2021 through October
2023 by price range, including the price distribution for detached single-family and multifamily
resales.
TABLE 33
• Detached single-family homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 have been the most
commonly purchased product in Carver County since 2021, representing 16% of all resales
(22% of all detached single-family resales), followed by detached single-family homes priced
in the $400,000 to $499,999 range (15% of all resales, 21% of detached single-family re-
sales).
Closed
Sales
% of
Total
Closed
Sales
% of
Total
Closed
Sales
% of
Total
Closed
Sales
% of
Total
Detached Single-family
Less than $100,000 3 0.2%0 0.0%1 0.1%4 0.1%
$100,000 to $199,999 16 1.3%16 1.6%5 0.7%37 1.2%
$200,000 to $299,999 151 11.8%91 8.9%47 6.6%289 9.6%
$300,000 to $399,999 291 22.8%213 20.7%160 22.5%664 22.0%
$400,000 to $499,999 260 20.3%217 21.1%153 21.5%630 20.9%
$500,000 to $599,999 215 16.8%147 14.3%102 14.3%464 15.4%
$600,000 to $699,999 140 10.9%140 13.6%86 12.1%366 12.1%
$700,000 to $799,999 96 7.5%64 6.2%55 7.7%215 7.1%
$800,000 to $899,999 39 3.0%53 5.2%43 6.0%135 4.5%
$900,000 to $999,999 22 1.7%29 2.8%15 2.1%66 2.2%
$1,000,000 or more 46 3.6%58 5.6%44 6.2%148 4.9%
Total 1,279 100%1,028 100%711 100%3,018 100%
Mulitfamily
Less than $100,000 1 0.2%0 0.0%0 0.0%1 0.1%
$100,000 to $199,999 57 12.1%27 7.6%16 5.4%100 8.9%
$200,000 to $299,999 241 51.2%158 44.6%113 38.4%512 45.8%
$300,000 to $399,999 128 27.2%116 32.8%115 39.1%359 32.1%
$400,000 to $499,999 31 6.6%32 9.0%32 10.9%95 8.5%
$500,000 to $599,999 7 1.5%11 3.1%9 3.1%27 2.4%
$600,000 to $699,999 0 0.0%3 0.8%2 0.7%5 0.4%
$700,000 to $799,999 1 0.2%3 0.8%2 0.7%6 0.5%
$800,000 to $899,999 2 0.4%1 0.3%1 0.3%4 0.4%
$900,000 to $999,999 2 0.4%1 0.3%2 0.7%5 0.4%
$1,000,000 or more 1 0.2%2 0.6%2 0.7%5 0.4%
Total 471 100%354 100%294 100%1,119 100%
*Includes 2023 resales through October 31
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
RESIDENTAL RESALE PRICE DISTRIBUTION
CARVER COUNTY
2021 - 2023
2021 2022 2023 ytd*Total
142
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Of the multifamily unit resales in the County since 2021, 46% were priced in the $200,000 to
$299,999 range (12% of all resales) and another 32% were priced between $300,000 and
$399,999 (9% of all resales).
• The following chart illustrates resale activity in the County by product type and price point.
Based on the 4,137 resales from 2021 through October 2023, Carver County experienced an
average of roughly 122 residential resales per month, including 88.8 detached single-family
resales per month and 32.9 multifamily resales per month.
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Less than $100,000
$100,000 to $199,999
$200,000 to $299,999
$300,000 to $399,999
$400,000 to $499,999
$500,000 to $599,999
$600,000 to $699,999
$700,000 to $799,999
$800,000 to $899,999
$900,000 to $999,999
$1,000,000 or more
Carver County Resale Price Distribution by Product Type
2021 -2023
Detached SF
Multifamily
0.1 1.1
8.5
19.5 18.5
13.6
10.8
6.3
4.0
1.9
4.4
0.0
2.9
15.1
10.6
2.8
0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Resales per Month by Price Point and Product Type
Carver County (2021 -2023)
Detached SF
Multifamily
143
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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Active Listings
The following table presents a summary of detached single-family homes and multifamily hous-
ing products listed for sale in Carver County as of November 13, 2023. Data includes infor-
mation on the number of active listings by price range, median age of homes listed for sale, me-
dian size (based on total finished square feet), median price, and median price per square foot.
• There were 357 homes listed for sale in Carver County as of November 13, 2023. Nearly
84% of the for-sale listings (299 homes) were detached single-family homes and the remain-
ing 16% (58 homes) were multifamily housing product types.
TABLE 34
Listings
% of
Total
Median
Year Built
Median
Size
Median
Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.
Detached Single-family
Less than $100,000 0 0.0%--------
$100,000 to $199,999 3 0.8%1900 1,855 $192,000 $104
$200,000 to $299,999 3 0.8%1938 1,714 $299,000 $174
$300,000 to $399,999 45 12.6%2023 1,400 $379,900 $271
$400,000 to $499,999 65 18.2%2023 2,103 $467,990 $223
$500,000 to $599,999 51 14.3%2023 2,599 $559,990 $215
$600,000 to $699,999 50 14.0%2023 3,003 $644,890 $215
$700,000 to $799,999 19 5.3%2023 3,299 $749,900 $227
$800,000 to $899,999 10 2.8%2001 3,318 $845,850 $255
$900,000 to $999,999 20 5.6%2023 3,970 $959,900 $242
$1,000,000 or more 33 9.2%2023 4,731 $1,385,000 $293
Subtotal 299 83.8%2023 2,645 $575,000 $217
Multifamily (Townhome, Twin Home, Condo, etc.)
Less than $100,000 0 0.0%--------
$100,000 to $199,999 4 1.1%1994 969 $177,500 $183
$200,000 to $299,999 24 6.7%2003 1,350 $259,900 $193
$300,000 to $399,999 17 4.8%2013 1,931 $369,900 $192
$400,000 to $499,999 9 2.5%2013 2,385 $449,900 $189
$500,000 to $599,999 2 0.6%2010 2,648 $567,450 $214
$600,000 to $699,999 1 0.3%2024 2,102 $664,000 $316
$700,000 to $799,999 0 0.0%--------
$800,000 to $899,999 0 0.0%--------
$900,000 to $999,999 0 0.0%--------
$1,000,000 or more 1 0.3%2022 3,519 $1,216,800 $346
Subtotal 58 16.2%2004 1,613 $307,500 $191
County Total 357 100%2023 2,366 $534,340 $226
ACTIVE LISTINGS
CARVER COUNTY
November 2023
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
144
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 135
• The median asking price for detached single-family homes in the County is $575,000, 17%
higher than the 2023 median resale price of $489,900. The median list price for multifamily
product types is $307,500, comparable to the median price of closed resales in 2023
($310,000).
• The median size of all homes listed for sale was 2,366 square feet which equates to a me-
dian price per square foot (psf) of $226 based on a total median list price of $534,340 (all
housing product types).
- With a median size of 2,645 square feet, the median price per square foot for detached
single-family homes was $217 psf.
- Multifamily units are smaller, at 1,613 square feet, and priced lower on a per square
foot basis with a median price of $191 psf.
• Detached single-family homes priced in the $400,000 to $499,999 range are the most com-
mon listings in Carver County, with 65 homes listed for sale (18.2% of all listings), followed
by detached single-family units priced in the $500,000 to $599,999 range with 51 listings
(14.3%).
• Among the multifamily units listed for sale, homes priced in the $200,000 to $299,999 range
are most common with 24 listings (6.7% of all homes listed for sale), followed by the
$300,000 to $399,999 range with 17 (4.8%).
0
3
3
45
65
51
50
19
10
20
33
0
4
24
17
9
2
1
0
0
0
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Less than $100,000
$100,000 to $199,999
$200,000 to $299,999
$300,000 to $399,999
$400,000 to $499,999
$500,000 to $599,999
$600,000 to $699,999
$700,000 to $799,999
$800,000 to $899,999
$900,000 to $999,999
$1,000,000 or more
Carver County Active Listing Price Distribution
November 2023
Multifamily
Detached SF
145
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 136
• The median year built of the homes listed for sale in Carver County is 2023 (158 of the avail-
able homes are 2023 builds), indicating that much of the available housing product is new
construction.
• Roughly 57% of the homes (205) listed for sale were built in 2020 or more recently. Homes
built in the 1990s (34 listings) and 2000s (48 listings) represent roughly 10% and 13% of ac-
tive listings in the County, respectively.
• Another 6% of the listings (23) were homes built from 2010 to 2019, while 4% of the homes
listed for sale (15) were built in the 1980s and another 4% (15) of the listings were homes
built prior to 1940.
• Among the detached single-family home listings, 64% of the homes were built in 2020 or
more recently (192 listings). Roughly 9% of the detached single-family homes listed for sale
were constructed in the 1990s (26), 7% opened in the 2000s (22 listings), and another 6%
(18 listings) were built from 2010 to 2019.
• Roughly 45% of the multifamily units listed for sale were built in the 2000s (26 listings),
while 22% have been built since 2020 (13 listings). Another 14% of the multifamily listings
were for units built in the 1990s (eight) and 9% were for units built in the 2010s (five).
0 50 100 150 200 250
>2020
2010-2019
2000-2009
1990-1999
1980-1989
1970-1979
1960-1969
1950-1959
1940-1949
<1940
>20202010-
2019
2000-
2009
1990-
1999
1980-
1989
1970-
1979
1960-
1969
1950-
1959
1940-
1949<1940
Detached SF 19218222613724015
Multifamily 135268231000
Active Listings by Product Type and Year Built
Carver County
146
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 137
The following summarizes the actively marketing homes listed for sale in Carver County as of
November 2023 by product type and housing style.
• With 162 listings (45% of the total), two-story detached single-family homes are the most
commonly available housing product type available in Carver County, followed by one-story
detached single-family homes with 91 listings (26%).
• The two-story homes listed for sale have a median year built of 2023, and they are the high-
est-priced detached single-family product type with a median list price of $629,945.
• The median list price for the one-story homes listed for sale, which also have a median year
built of 2023, is $544,900.
TABLE 35
• There are three detached townhomes listed for sale (all new construction units) at a median
price of $664,000, the highest-priced product in the County.
• Side-by-side townhomes, which represent 76% of the multifamily listings (12% of all list-
ings), have a median list price of $317,000 and a median year built of 2004.
• Based on per square foot (psf) pricing, the detached townhomes are priced highest ($316
psf), followed by one-story detached single-family ($279 psf), two level split detached sin-
gle-family ($272 psf), and three level split detached single-family ($220 psf).
Listings
% of
Total
Median
Year Built
Median
Size
Median
Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.
Detached Single-family
One Story 91 25.5%2023 1,953 $544,900 $279
Two Story 162 45.4%2023 3,003 $629,945 $210
One and One-Half Story 7 2.0%1929 2,714 $479,900 $177
Modified Two Story 1 0.3%1998 3,298 $572,899 $174
Two Level Split 19 5.3%2023 1,381 $375,000 $272
Three Level Split 12 3.4%2023 1,772 $389,400 $220
Four or More Level Split 7 2.0%1992 2,074 $409,900 $198
Multifamily Product Types
Side x Side Townhome 44 12.3%2004 1,642 $317,000 $193
Quad/4 Corners Townhome 4 1.1%2001 2,269 $464,950 $205
Detached Townhome 3 0.8%2024 2,102 $664,000 $316
Condominium 7 2.0%2003 1,073 $200,000 $186
Market Total 357 100%2023 2,366 $534,340 $226
ACTIVE LISTINGS BY STYLE OF HOME
CARVER COUNTY
November 2023
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
147
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 138
The following table summarizes detached single-family homes and multifamily housing prod-
ucts listed for sale in Carver County by submarket. Data includes information on the number of
active listings, median age of homes listed for sale, median size (based on total finished square
feet), median price, and median price per square foot.
• Submarkets in the eastern portion of the County (i.e. Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria) gener-
ally have more active listings than in the western portion of the County. Chaska has the
most active listings, with 90 detached single-family homes listed for sale (30% of all de-
tached single-family listings) and 20 multifamily listings (35% of all multifamily units listed
for sale).
TABLE 36
• The number of detached single-family listings is also fairly high in the Victoria (41 listings,
14%), Waconia (37 listings, 12%), and Chanhassen (33 listings, 11%) Submarkets.
• Aside from Chaska, multifamily listing activity is highest in Chanhassen with 15 units listed
for sale (26% of all multifamily listings), the Victoria Submarket with ten listings (15%), and
the Waconia Submarket with eight listings (14%).
County Subdivision Listings
% of
Total
Median
Year Built
Median
Size
Median
Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.
Detached Single-family
Carver 24 8.0%2023 2,984 $552,990 $185
Chanhassen 33 11.0%1998 3,379 $950,000 $281
Chaska 90 30.1%2023 2,834 $637,490 $225
Cologne 23 7.7%2023 1,436 $406,900 $283
Hamburg-NYA 8 2.7%1976 2,285 $429,950 $188
Mayer-New Germany 21 7.0%2023 1,665 $402,400 $242
Victoria 41 13.7%2023 3,257 $724,900 $223
Waconia 37 12.4%2023 2,375 $489,990 $206
Watertown 22 7.4%2023 1,541 $392,900 $255
County Total 299 100%2023 2,645 $575,000 $217
Multifamily
Carver 2 3.4%2023 1,748 $376,940 $216
Chanhassen 15 25.9%2001 1,472 $285,000 $194
Chaska 20 34.5%2003 1,525 $277,400 $182
Cologne 0 0.0%--------
Hamburg-NYA 1 1.7%2021 2,594 $399,900 $154
Mayer-New Germany 1 1.7%2023 2,095 $397,000 $189
Victoria 10 17.2%2013 1,932 $372,450 $193
Waconia 8 13.8%2005 1,370 $242,250 $177
Watertown 1 1.7%2023 1,466 $299,900 $205
County Total 58 100%2004 1,613 $307,500 $191
November 2023
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
ACTIVE LISTING SUMMARY BY SUBMARKET
CARVER COUNTY
148
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 139
• As depicted in the following graph, median list prices for detached single -family homes
ranges from $392,900 in the Watertown Submarket to $950,000 in Chanhassen.
• Median multifamily list prices range from $242,250 in the Waconia Submarket to $399,900
in the Hamburg – Norwood Young America Submarket.
• On a per square foot basis, detached single-family homes have the highest list price in the
Cologne ($283 psf), Chanhassen ($281 psf), and Watertown ($255 psf) Submarkets.
• Multifamily units have the highest per square foot prices in the Carver ($216 psf), Water-
town ($205 psf), and Chanhassen ($194) Submarkets.
$392,900
$402,400
$406,900
$429,950
$489,990
$552,990
$575,000
$637,490
$724,900
$950,000
$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000
Watertown
Mayer-New Germ.
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Waconia
Carver
CARVER CO.
Chaska
Victoria
Chanhassen
Median List Prices by Submarket
Detached Single-family
$242,250
$277,400
$285,000
$299,900
$307,500
$372,450
$376,940
$397,000
$399,900
$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000
Waconia
Chaska
Chanhassen
Watertown
CARVER CO.
Victoria
Carver
Mayer-New Germ.
Hamburg-NYA
Multifamily
149
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 140
• As of the end of October 2023, there was a 2.8-month supply of detached single-family
homes and a 1.4-month supply of multifamily units available for sale on the market in
Carver County. By comparison, there was a 1.7-month supply of detached single-family
homes and a 2.0-month supply of multifamily units available across the Metro Area.
• Equilibrium in the for-sale housing market is generally considered to be a six-month supply
of homes on the market. As such, it appears that the current inventory of available for -sale
housing in Carver County is undersupplied.
TABLE 37
• As summarized in the table, the supply of detached single -family homes ranges from 1.6-
months in Chanhassen to 6.7-months in the Cologne Submarket.
• The supply of available multifamily units ranges from no supply available in the Cologne
Submarket to 2.1 months in the Victoria Submarket.
• The supply of available housing is well-below equilibrium in the vast majority of communi-
ties in Carver County, suggesting that there is likely pent-up demand for new for-sale hous-
ing units in most areas of the County.
Submarket
Detached
Single-family Multifamily
Carver 2.1 1.7
Chanhassen 1.6 1.4
Chaska 2.6 1.0
Cologne 6.7 0.0
Hamburg-NYA 1.7 1.2
Mayer-New Germany 6.4 0.9
Victoria 3.0 2.1
Waconia 3.1 1.6
Watertown 4.4 1.1
Carver County 2.8 1.4
Twin Cities Metro Area*1.7 2.0
*Seven-County Metro Area
October 2023
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors;
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MONTHS SUPPLY
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
150
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 141
Residential Subdivisions
Maxfield Research obtained lot inventory and subdivision data from Zonda, a homebuilding
consulting company that maintains a database of all subdivision activity in the greater Twin Cit-
ies Metro Area. This data provides an overview of the supply of residential lots by community
in Carver County, including the total number of residential lots, vacant lots, base price ranges,
product type, absorption, and typical lot sizes. Note that detailed pricing information for new
construction homes is summarized in the New Construction Home Pricing portion of this sec-
tion of the study, which is presented next.
Zonda categorizes their subdivisions as either “detached” or “attached”. For this analysis, we
include “detached” subdivisions under detached single-family while “attached” subdivisions are
considered multifamily.
The following terms are used in the residential subdivision summary tables:
- Annual Starts and Closings: The sum of activity for the most recent four quarters.
- Closing: Defined as when a “move in” has occurred and the home is occupied.
- Future Lots Inventory: Future lots are recorded after a preliminary plat or site plan has
been submitted for consideration by the City.
- Price: Range of all base home price offered within the subdivision
- Starts: The housing slab or foundation has been poured.
- Total Lots: A summation of all lots platted in a subdivision, including those closed, un-
der construction, and vacant.
- Lots Remaining (Vacant Developed Lot): The subdivision is considered developed after
subdivision streets are paved and vehicles can physically drive in front of the lot.
The following points summarize our findings regarding the residential lot supply in Carver
County. Data is current through the third quarter of 2023, the most recent information availa-
ble from Zonda.
• Zonda is tracking 383 residential subdivisions in Carver County containing a total of 24,122
lots, including 283 detached single-family subdivisions (18,710 lots) and 100 multifamily
subdivisions (5,412 lots).
151
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 142
• As summarized below, there are 72 active subdivisions in the County (60 detached single-
family and 12 multifamily subdivisions). The active subdivisions contain a total of 7,182 lots,
including 6,262 detached lots and 920 multifamily lots. Active is defined as a subdivision
with developed lots available to build upon or standing inventory available to buy.
• Another 273 subdivisions are fully developed (14,585 total lots), including 191 detached sin-
gle-family subdivisions (10,451 lots) and 82 multifamily subdivisions (4,134 lots). There are
also 38 pending future developments (2,355 total lots), including 32 future detached single-
family subdivisions (1,997 lots) and six future multifamily developments (358 lots).
• Of the 7,182 lots in active subdivisions, 1,154 are vacant, including 1,050 detached single-
family lots and 104 multifamily lots.
• The following graph illustrates the number of quarterly construction starts against the sup-
ply of vacant developed lots in Carver County since 2000.
Status Subdivisions Lots Subdivisions Lots Subdivisions Lots
Active 60 6,262 12 920 72 7,182
Built Out 191 10,451 82 4,134 273 14,585
Future 32 1,997 6 358 38 2,355
Total:283 18,710 100 5,412 383 24,122
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Detached Single-family Multifamily
Carver County Residential Subdivision Summary - 2023 Q3
Total
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1Q001Q012Q022Q032Q042Q052Q062Q072Q082Q092Q102Q112Q122Q132Q142Q152Q162Q172Q182Q192Q202Q212Q222Q23Lots RemainingQuarterly Construction StartsCarver County Residential Subdivisions
Quarterly Construction Starts vs. Lot Supply: 2000 -2023 Q3
Lots Remaining Construction Starts
152
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 143
• On average, there have been 156 construction starts in these subdivisions on a quarterly ba-
sis (625 per year) since 2000.
- Prior to 2010, these subdivisions in Carver County averaged 184 construction starts per
quarter. Construction starts slowed to an average of 122 per quarter between 2010 and
2020.
- Construction activity has accelerated, averaging 176 construction starts per quarter be-
tween 2020 and the third quarter of 2023.
• With increased home building activity, the residential lot supply declined to a low inventory
of 679 lots in the third quarter of 2021 after peaking at 2,388 lots in late 2007.
• The vacant developed lot inventory has since increased to 1 ,154 lots as of the third quarter
of 2023, remaining below the historical average inventory of 1,363 vacant developed lots
(2000 – 2023).
• Along with the vacant developed lots, there are 2,543 future lots planned in the active sub-
divisions, including 2,157 detached single-family lots and 386 multifamily lots. Additionally,
there are 1,997 future detached single-family lots and 358 future multifamily lots in pending
subdivisions.
• In addition to the available lot supply, there was a new home inventory of 379 units as of
the third quarter of 2023, including 313 detached single-family units and 66 multifamily
units. The new home inventory includes model units, finished vacant homes, and homes
under construction.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Detached SF
Multifamily
Detached SF Multifamily
New Home Inventory 313 66
Vacant Developed Lots 1,050 104
Future Lot 4,076 744
Carver County Lot Supply
2023 Q3
153
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 144
• The following graph illustrates the detached single-family lot supply by county subdivision in
Carver County as of the third quarter of 2023, including new home inventory, vacant devel-
oped lots, and future lots.
• As shown above, Chaska and Waconia have the largest inventory of vacant developed de-
tached single-family lots with 309 and 342, respectively, followed by Carver with 179, Victo-
ria with 89, and Chanhassen with 42 lots.
- Chaska and Waconia also have the largest new home inventories with 108 and 59, re-
spectively.
• Mayer has the largest supply of future lots with 1,524 (most notably in the Fieldstone Es-
tates subdivision with 1,279 future lots planned), followed by Waconia with 1,026 future
lots.
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Benton Twp
Camden Twp
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Dahlgren Twp
Hamburg
Hancock Twp
Hollywood Twp
Laketown Twp
Mayer
New Germany
Norwood Young Am.
San Francisco Twp
Victoria
Waconia
Waconia Twp
Watertown
Watertown Twp
Young America
Detached Single-Family Lot Supply by County Subdivision
Carver County: 2023 Q3
New Home Inventory Vacant Developed Lots Future Lot
154
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 145
• The following graph illustrates the multifamily lot supply by county subdivision in Carver
County as of the third quarter of 2023, including new home inventory, vacant developed
lots, and future lots.
• As shown in the graph, Waconia and Watertown have the largest inventories of vacant de-
veloped multifamily lots with 38 and 36, respectively, followed by Carver with 20. Carver
and Waconia have the largest new multifamily home inventories with 25 and 23 new
homes, respectively.
• Watertown has the largest supply of future lots in multifamily subdivisions with 382 (most
notably in the Forest Hills development with 289 lots), followed by Victoria with 133 and
Young America with 108 future lots.
• Chaska has the most active detached single-family market, averaging 187 new construction
closings annually, which represents 34% of all new detached single-family closings in the
County, followed by Victoria with 128 (23% market share) and Waconia with 117 (21%).
• Carver is most active new construction multifamily market, averaging 29 closings per year
(37% market share), followed by Victoria with 25 (32%) and Waconia with 19 (24%).
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Benton Twp
Camden Twp
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Dahlgren Twp
Hamburg
Hancock Twp
Hollywood Twp
Laketown Twp
Mayer
New Germany
Norwood Young Am.
San Francisco Twp
Victoria
Waconia
Waconia Twp
Watertown
Watertown Twp
Young America
Multifamily Lot Supply by County Subdivision
Carver County: 2023 Q3
New Home Inventory Vacant Developed Lots Future Lot
155
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 146
• The following graphs illustrate average base price ranges by community. Communities that
do not have active subdivisions are not represented in the graphs.
• Homes in the active detached single-family subdivisions have base prices ranging from
$300,000 to nearly $1.7 million. Minimum base prices range from $300,000 to $675,000,
while the maximum base price range has a much larger gap ($420,000 to $1.7 million).
• Base prices for units in the active multifamily subdivisions range from $300,000 to
$485,000, with a minimum price range of $300,000 to $378,000 and a maximum price range
of $400,000 to $485,000.
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Base Price Range by Community
Detached Single-Family
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Carver Chaska Mayer Victoria Waconia Watertown Young
America
Base Price Range by Community
Multifamily
156
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 147
TABLE 38
City
Total
Subdivisions
Home
Inventory1
New
Inventory2
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots3
Total
Lots
Total
Subdivisions
Home
Inventory1
New
Inventory2
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots3
Total
Lots
Benton Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carver 27 1,525 49 179 117 1,870 6 237 25 20 0 282
Chanhassen 61 2,049 13 42 111 2,215 20 1,424 0 0 53 1,477
Chaska 58 3,062 108 309 306 3,785 28 1,484 6 0 0 1,490
Cologne 8 471 17 18 124 630 1 20 0 0 0 20
Dahlgren Twp 1 110 0 0 0 110 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hamburg 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hancock Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hollywood Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laketown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mayer 7 630 4 34 1,524 2,192 1 40 2 6 0 48
New Germany 1 35 0 3 142 180 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norwood Young Am.2 44 0 0 0 44 1 26 0 0 0 26
San Francisco Twp 1 2 5 3 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 40 1,740 49 89 270 2,148 12 513 8 0 133 654
Waconia 57 2,769 59 342 1,026 4,196 12 463 23 38 68 592
Waconia Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Watertown 15 646 9 21 257 933 13 155 0 36 382 573
Watertown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Young America 5 188 0 10 199 397 6 136 2 4 108 250
County Total:283 13,271 313 1,050 4,076 18,710 100 4,498 66 104 744 5,412
1 Includes occupied units
2 Includes model units (i.e. spec homes), finished vacant homes, and homes under construction
3 Includes only future lots in actively marketing subdivisions. Additional future lots identified in new subdivisions in the pipeline.
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
LOT SUPPLY SUMMARY
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
Detached Single-family Multifamily (townhomes, etc.)
157
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 148
TABLE 39
City
Active
Subdivisions
New Home
Inventory1
VDL 2
Inventory
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings
Inventory
Months
VDL 2
Months
Min.
($000s)-
Max.
($000s)
Benton Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Camden Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Carver 6 49 179 75 50 11.8 28.6 $449 $900
Chanhassen 4 13 42 28 46 3.4 18.0 $675 -$1,677
Chaska 18 108 309 188 187 6.9 19.7 $400 -$1,300
Cologne 1 17 18 24 18 11.3 9.0 $350 $500
Dahlgren Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Hamburg 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Hancock Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Hollywood Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Laketown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Mayer 2 4 34 6 3 16.0 68.0 $300 -$500
New Germany 1 0 3 0 0 ----$320 $420
Norwood Young Am.0 0 0 0 0 --------
San Francisco Twp 1 5 3 5 0 --7.2 $500 -$800
Victoria 11 49 89 118 128 4.6 9.1 $470 -$1,400
Waconia 12 59 342 87 117 6.1 47.2 $366 -$900
Waconia Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Watertown 2 9 21 8 6 18.0 31.5 $350 -$700
Watertown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 ---------
Young America 2 0 10 0 0 ----$350 $590
County Total:60 313 1,050 539 555 6.8 23.4 $300 -$1,677
1 New home inventory includes model units (i.e. spec homes), finished vacant homes, and homes under construction
2 Vacant Developed Lots
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Price RangeMonths SupplyActivitySupply
SUMMARY OF ACTIVELY MARKETING DETACHED SUBDIVISIONS
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
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TABLE 40
City
Active
Subdivisions
New Home
Inventory1
VDL 2
Inventory
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings
Inventory
Months
VDL 2
Months
Min.
($000s)-
Max.
($000s)
Benton Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Camden Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Carver 1 25 20 18 29 10.3 13.3 $376 $406
Chanhassen 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Chaska 1 6 0 0 1 72.0 --$320 $400
Cologne 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Dahlgren Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Hamburg 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Hancock Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Hollywood Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Laketown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Mayer 1 2 6 2 2 12.0 36.0 $340 $450
New Germany 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Norwood Young Am.0 0 0 0 0 --------
San Francisco Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Victoria 1 8 0 6 25 3.8 --$378 $405
Waconia 2 23 38 26 19 14.5 17.5 $348 $485
Waconia Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Watertown 4 0 36 0 0 ----$300 $400
Watertown Twp 0 0 0 0 0 --------
Young America 2 2 4 2 2 12.0 24.0 $300 $450
County Total:12 66 104 54 78 10.2 23.1 $300 -$485
1 New home inventory includes model units (i.e. spec homes), finished vacant homes, and homes under construction
2 Vacant Developed Lots
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
SUMMARY OF ACTIVELY MARKETING MULTIFAMILY SUBDIVISIONS
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
Supply Activity Months Supply Price Range
159
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TABLE 41
City
Annual
Closings
Market
Share
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Market
Share
Annual
Closings
Market
Share
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Market
Share
Annual
Closings
Market
Share
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Market
Share
Benton Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Camden Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Carver 50 9.0%179 17.0%29 37.2%20 19.2%79 12.5%199 17.2%
Chanhassen 46 8.3%42 4.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%46 7.3%42 3.6%
Chaska 187 33.7%309 29.4%1 1.3%0 0.0%188 29.7%309 26.8%
Cologne 18 3.2%18 1.7%0 0.0%0 0.0%18 2.8%18 1.6%
Dahlgren Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Hamburg 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Hancock Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Hollywood Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Laketown Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Mayer 3 0.5%34 3.2%2 2.6%6 5.8%5 0.8%40 3.5%
New Germany 0 0.0%3 0.3%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%3 0.3%
Norwood Young Am.0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
San Francisco Twp 0 0.0%3 0.3%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%3 0.3%
Victoria 128 23.1%89 8.5%25 32.1%0 0.0%153 24.2%89 7.7%
Waconia 117 21.1%342 32.6%19 24.4%38 36.5%136 21.5%380 32.9%
Waconia Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Watertown 6 1.1%21 2.0%0 0.0%36 34.6%6 0.9%57 4.9%
Watertown Twp 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%
Young America 0 0.0%10 1.0%2 2.6%4 3.8%2 0.3%14 1.2%
County Total:555 1,050 78 104 633 1,154
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Detached Single-family Multifamily (townhomes, etc.)
NEW CONSTRUCTION HOUSING ACTIVITY STATISTICS
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
Total
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TABLE 42
Submarket
Subdivision Name
Active
Quarter
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
New
Homes
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings Min.-Max.Min.-Max.
Carver
Brookview Villas 2Q23 22 0 2 20 0 2 0 $500 -$700 50 -50
Christys Bluff 4Q14 24 23 1 0 0 2 1 $500 -$900 70 -70
Meadows at Spring Creek 3Q18 101 95 6 0 0 9 27 $480 -$600 50 -50
Preserve in Carver, The 4Q22 66 9 11 46 0 20 9 $468 -$593 65 -65
Timber Creek/Discovery 1Q23 157 2 15 36 104 17 2 $505 -$593 65 -65
Timber Creek/Heritage 4Q22 115 11 14 77 13 25 11 $449 -$503 60 -60
10 2 5 3 0 5 0 $500 $800 400 400Chanhassen
Avienda/Villa 2Q23 39 0 2 37 0 2 0 $700 -$1,100 56 -56
Bluffs at Lake Lucy, The 3Q21 31 26 1 4 0 3 13 $1,100 -$1,677 90 -90
Fawn Hill in Chanhassen 4Q17 9 8 0 1 0 0 0 $675 -$759 75 -75
Park, The/Landmark 4Q19 100 90 10 0 0 23 33 $692 -$776 65 -65
Chaska
Adelwood/Classic 1Q21 90 68 9 13 0 27 41 $484 -$533 50 -50
Adelwood/Estate 2Q21 57 33 8 16 0 20 17 $551 -$606 60 -60
Adelwood/Garden 2Q21 122 51 13 58 0 31 37 $402 -$440 40 -40
Brickyard Villas (DTH)2Q10 36 30 0 6 0 0 0 $400 -$460 60 -60
Chaska Bluffs/SF 1Q22 17 4 3 10 0 4 4 $800 -$1,100 65 -65
Clover Field/3Q01 151 150 1 0 0 0 0 $400 -$450 60 -60
Ensconsed Woods 2Q23 28 0 5 23 0 5 0 $750 -$1,300 75 -75
Harvest West North/Heritage 1Q22 27 17 4 6 0 7 15 $570 -$705 66 -66
Harvest West North/Tradition 2Q22 30 3 6 21 0 9 3 $620 -$840 75 -75
Harvest West North/Villa 1Q22 35 20 1 14 0 6 10 $455 -$580 52 -52
Harvest West/Villa 1Q20 49 36 4 9 0 6 7 $455 -$600 53 -53
Harvest West/Village 1Q20 79 69 6 4 0 9 26 $500 -$640 65 -65
Harvest, The 4Q13 318 289 2 2 25 2 8 $455 -$840 65 -65
Oak Creek Tradition 1Q23 101 1 13 42 45 14 1 $500 -$700 65 -65
Lot Inventory Absorption Pricing ($000's)Frontage (ft.)
ACTIVE DETACHED SINGLE-FAMILY SUBDIVISIONS BY SUBMARKET
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
--------------- continued ---------------
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Submarket
Subdivision Name
Active
Quarter
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
New
Homes
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings Min.-Max.Min.-Max.
Reserve at Autumn Woods/Discovery 4Q22 20 11 8 1 0 19 11 $556 -$586 55 -55
Reserve at Autumn Woods/Landmark 4Q22 66 3 16 47 0 19 3 $621 -$714 70 -70
Rivertown Heights Tradition 2Q23 89 0 9 34 46 9 0 $550 -$643 65 -65
Savanna Estates 1Q18 50 47 0 3 0 1 4 $500 -$800 75 -75
Cologne
Winkler Crossing 2Q02 225 126 17 18 64 24 18 $350 -$500 75 -75
Hamburg-Norwood Young America
Brand Lake Highlands 4Q04 26 18 0 8 0 0 0 $390 -$590 80 -80
Preserve of NYA/SF 4Q02 150 148 0 2 0 0 0 $350 -$500 85 -85
Mayer-New Germany
Coldwater Crossing 3Q01 393 239 4 28 122 6 2 $300 -$500 75 -75
Fieldstone/Estates 1Q06 1345 60 0 6 1279 0 1 $300 -$350 80 -80
Black Forest Estates 3Q05 180 35 0 3 142 0 0 $320 -$420 85 -85
Victoria
Brookmoore 2Q23 80 0 9 18 53 9 0 $540 -$626 68 -68
Hawks Pointe 3Q16 15 14 0 1 0 0 0 $600 -$900 130 -130
Hillpointe 3Q18 22 20 1 1 0 0 1 $750 -$1,100 80 -80
Huntersbrook/Heritage 2Q22 67 9 6 4 48 12 9 $590 -$740 66 -66
Huntersbrook/Revere 1Q22 77 28 8 1 40 29 28 $470 -$570 55 -55
Huntersbrook/SF 1Q22 37 11 6 20 0 11 11 $1,070 -$1,400 66 -66
Huntersbrook/Tradition 4Q22 56 10 5 7 34 15 10 $650 -$870 76 -76
Laketown/Landmark 4Q13 244 240 0 4 0 5 27 $523 -$646 70 -70
Madelyn Trail Expressions 1Q22 49 40 4 5 0 26 36 $558 -$628 68 -68
Shores of Marsh Lake, The (DTH)1Q22 42 6 10 26 0 11 6 $700 -$1,400 65 -65
Wasserman Lake Woods 4Q14 65 63 0 2 0 0 0 $560 -$700 80 -80
TABLE continued
ACTIVE DETACHED SINGLE-FAMILY SUBDIVISIONS BY SUBMARKET
CARVER COUNTY
Lot Inventory Absorption Pricing ($000's)Frontage (ft.)
2023 Q3
--------------- continued ---------------
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Submarket
Subdivision Name
Active
Quarter
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
New
Homes
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings Min.-Max.Min.-Max.
Waconia
Fairlane 1Q18 10 9 0 1 0 0 0 $600 -$800 90 -90
Fields of Waconia/Express Select 1Q22 100 13 8 79 0 6 11 $425 -$460 55 -55
Fields of Waconia/Tradition 1Q22 112 17 12 83 0 10 14 $561 -$900 65 -65
Interlaken/Inspiration 4Q20 72 66 6 0 0 21 34 $393 -$411 60 -60
Orchard Park/Smart 3Q21 60 16 4 40 0 6 6 $400 -$487 55 -55
Orchard Park/Villa 3Q21 59 33 12 14 0 21 24 $366 -$536 50 -50
Somerwood Cottages (DTH)3Q16 42 36 1 5 0 1 1 $500 -$650 59 -59
Waterford in Waconia/75 3Q22 29 0 0 22 7 0 0 $500 -$600 70 -70
Waterford in Waconia/Discovery 4Q21 182 17 10 62 93 13 15 $452 -$521 65 -65
Windmill Creek 4Q00 160 156 1 0 3 1 0 $500 -$700 90 -90
Woodland Creek in Waconia/SF 2Q21 53 11 4 28 10 7 8 $550 -$750 70 -70
Woodland Creek in Waconia/Villa 4Q21 42 4 1 8 29 1 4 $550 -$750 65 -65
Watertown
Forest Hills/SF 3Q07 170 145 7 18 0 6 5 $350 -$390 70 -70
Kings Highlands 3Q05 59 54 2 3 0 2 1 $459 -$700 90 -90
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
ACTIVE DETACHED SINGLE-FAMILY SUBDIVISIONS BY SUBMARKET
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
Lot Inventory Absorption Pricing ($000's)Frontage (ft.)
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TABLE 43
Submarket
Subdivision Name
Active
Quarter
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
New
Homes
Vacant
Dev. Lots
Future
Lots
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings Min.-Max.Min.-Max.
Carver
Timber Creek/Liberty (TH)2Q22 74 29 25 20 0 18 29 $376 -$406 25 -25
Chaska
Clover Ridge, Arbor Field Village/(TH)3Q05 48 42 6 0 0 0 1 $320 -$400 15 -15
Hamburg-Norwood Young America
Preserve of NYA/TH 2Q03 82 78 0 4 0 0 2 $350 -$450 33 -33
Serenity Pointe (TW)4Q04 10 8 2 0 0 2 0 $300 -$400 41 -41
Mayer-New Germany
Sunset Meadows (TW)1Q06 48 40 2 6 0 2 2 $340 -$450 37 -37
Victoria
Laketown/Colonial Patriot (TH)3Q20 99 91 8 0 0 6 25 $378 -$405 33 -33
Waconia
Legacy Heights Townhomes (TW)1Q20 24 22 2 0 0 0 2 $385 -$485 47 -47
Waterford in Waconia/Liberty (TH)1Q22 144 17 21 38 68 26 17 $348 -$381 25 -25
Watertown
Forest Hills/Crescent Ridge (TW)1Q10 4 2 0 2 0 0 0 $300 -$400 40 -40
Forest Hills/Rowhomes (TH)4Q06 247 4 0 18 225 0 0 $300 -$400 26 -26
Rosewood Estates (TW)3Q06 26 18 0 8 0 0 0 $300 -$400 40 -40
Tuscany Village/TH 3Q05 114 13 0 8 93 0 0 $300 -$400 35 -35
Sources: Zonda; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
ACTIVE MULTIFAMILY SUBDIVISIONS BY SUBMARKET
CARVER COUNTY
2023 Q3
Lot Inventory Absorption Pricing ($000's)Frontage (ft.)
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New Construction Home Pricing
The table on the following page summarizes new construction sales activity over the past 12
months (through October 2023) in Carver County. Data includes new construction homes sold
by a Realtor with the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, which captures only a portion of
new construction sales data. Information included in the table summarizes new construction
sales activity by community, including number of closed transactions, median sale price, and
median price per square foot.
• The following graph illustrates new construction sales activity trends in Carver County from
2013 through October 2023, including data on the median sale price and number of sales
for new construction homes (detached single-family and multifamily combined) in the
County, with pricing comparisons to the Metro Area.
• New construction pricing in Carver County was consistently lower than Metro Area pricing
from 2013 to 2021, before surpassing the Metro Area median sale price in 202 2 and 2023.
As of October 2023, the new construction median sale price in Carver County ($536,533)
was 4% higher than the Metro Area median of $514,990.
• Over the past ten years, new construction median prices increased 49% in Carver County,
climbing from $361,291 in 2013 to $536,533 in 2023. By comparison, Metro Area pricing
increased 40% to $514,990.
• New construction sales activity has also increased, climbing from 325 closed sales in 2013 to
426 transactions in 2023, a 31% increase, although the rate of increase flattened from 2021
to 2023.
-
100
200
300
400
500
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
New Construction Sales Trends
2013 -2023
Metro Median Sale Price Closed Sales in Carver Co.
Carver Co. Median Sale Price
165
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Within Carver County, sales volume for new construction detached single-family homes was
highest in Victoria over the past 12 months, with 82 sales, followed by Waconia (80 sales),
Chaska (57 sales), and Carver (54 sales).
• New construction multifamily sales activity was highest in Carver, with 23 closed sales, fol-
lowed closely by Victoria with 21 sales, Waconia (20 sales), and Watertown (20 sales).
TABLE 44
• The median sale prices for new construction detached single-family homes sold in the past
12 months range from $387,900 in Mayer (three sales) to $851,033 in Chanhassen (54
sales).
• On a per square foot (psf) basis, the median sale price for new construction single-family
homes is $233, ranging from $225 psf in Waconia to $275 psf in Cologne.
County Subdivision Sales
Median
Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.Sales
Median
Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.
Benton township ------------
Camden township ------------
Carver 54 $530,755 $229 23 $357,990 $203
Chanhassen 26 $851,033 $268 ------
Chaska 57 $649,900 $229 14 $451,490 $197
Cologne 15 $407,101 $275 ------
Dahlgren township ------------
Hamburg ------------
Hancock township ------------
Hollywood township ------------
Laketown township ------------
Mayer 3 $387,900 $257 2 $356,204 $170
New Germany ------------
Norwood Young America ------------
San Francisco township ------------
Victoria 82 $649,035 $228 21 $389,990 $207
Waconia 80 $498,000 $225 20 $354,890 $205
Waconia township ------------
Watertown 10 $507,450 $269 20 $289,900 $201
Watertown township ------------
Young America township ------------
County Total 327 $577,495 $233 100 $363,740 $202
Trailing 12 months sales data through October 2023
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES BY COUNTY SUBDIVISION
CARVER COUNTY
November 2023
Detached Single-Family Multifamily
166
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• Based on the countywide median price of $233 psf, we estimate that the average new con-
struction detached single-family homes sold in the County over the past 12 months is 2,479
square feet.
• The median sale price for new construction multifamily units sold in the past 12 months
ranges from $289,900 in Watertown (20 sales) to $451,490 in Chaska (14 sales).
- The median sale price for new construction multifamily units in the County is $202 psf,
ranging from $170 psf in Mayer (two sales) to $207 psf in Victoria (21 sales).
- New construction multifamily units are smaller than the detached single-family homes,
with an average size of 1,801 finished square feet in the County (based on the median
sale price and the median psf sale price).
• The following graph illustrates the median sale price for new construction homes sold over
the past twelve months by community in Carver County. Communities without any new
construction sales are not included in the graph.
$530,755
$851,033
$649,900
$407,101
$387,900
$649,035
$498,000
$507,450
357990
$451,490
$356,204
$389,990
$354,890
$289,900
$0 $150,000 $300,000 $450,000 $600,000 $750,000 $900,000
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Mayer
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Median Sale Price for New Construction Homes
Carver County: November 2023
Detached SF
Multifamily
167
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Pending Residential Subdivisions
Maxfield Research compiled information provided by municipal staff from the communities lo-
cated in Carver County to identify any residential subdivisions that are proposed or planned in
the County. Our findings are summarized below. These pending subdivisions are not included
in the residential lot supply data presented previously.
• Overall, we identified ten pending residential subdivisions in the County, containing a total
of 854 new lots, including 774 detached single-family lots and 80 multifamily lots. Of the
854 pending lots, 127 are in subdivisions that have been approved while the remaining 727
lots are in subdivisions that are in a preliminary concept planning stage.
• Over half of the pending lots (55%, 471 lots) are in Waconia, while 25% are in Chaska (212)
and 12% are in Watertown (102). Another 45 lots are in New Germany (5%) and there are
24 lots pending in Chanhassen (3%).
TABLE 45
Subdivision Total Single-family Multifamily Developer
City Lots Lots Lots Status
755 96th St W 19 19 0 Gonyea Custom Homes
Chanhassen 18 vacant, 1 under construction
Glendale Dr Homes 5 5 0 Lake West Development
Chanhassen 4 vacant, 1 under construction
Frenz/Worm Neighborhood 190 190 0 Forestar
Chaska Concept plan approved
Club West 11th Add 18 18 0 Tradition Development
Chaska Approved
Chaska Yards 4 4 0 Carver County CDA
Chaska Approved
Trophy Lakes 45 45 0 Pink Investments, LLC
New Germany Approved 2007, no activity
Falk-Saltire Property 323 323 0 Pulte Homes
Waconia Sketch plan
Kirsch Property 148 82 66 Tamarack Land
Waconia Sketch plan
Oak Grove Estates 36 22 14 Oak Grove Estates, LLC
Watertown Approved
Cove at River Ridge 66 66 0 Alliant Ventures X, LLC
Watertown Preliminary plat approved
Total Pending Lots:854 774 80
Multifamily includes lots for townhomes, twin homes, etc.
Data excludes subdivisions included in the Zonda reports
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
PENDING RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISIONS
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
168
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Rental Market Analysis
Introduction
Maxfield Research analyzed the general occupancy (i.e. not age restricted) rental housing mar-
ket in Carver County by collecting data on key rental housing industry metrics such as vacancy
rates, absorption, rental rates, and development activity. Most of the data was collected in No-
vember and December 2023. Topics covered in this section of the analysis include.
An overview of rental housing market conditions
Detailed information on select general occupancy market rate, affordable, and subsi-
dized rental properties in the County
An inventory of pending rental housing developments in the County
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC identified and surveyed rental properties wtih 24 or
more units in the County along with a select group of smaller properties from communities with
a limited number of larger (24 units or more) rental housing properties. General occupancy
rental properties are typically categorized into one of three sectors:
- Market rate properties (those without income restrictions)
- Affordable properties (those with income restrictions and rents affordable to house-
holds with incomes at 80% of Area Median Income or lower), and
- Subsidized properties (restricted to households with incomes at 50% of Area Median In-
come or lower).
Secondary data resources utilized for this section of the analysis include GVA Marquette Advi-
sors Apartment Trends reports and CoStar, a provider of information, analytics, and marketing
services to the commercial real estate industry.
169
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Overview of Rental Market Conditions
The following information offers an overview of rental housing market conditions in Carver
County compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Data is sourced from CoStar and is provided
for the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2023, the most recent quarterly
data available.
Additionally, Maxfield Research supplements this information with data from the GVA Mar-
quette Advisors Apartment Trends report for the third quarter of 2023. The Apartment Trends
report does not include information for all of Carver County, although properties in Chanhassen
and Chaska are included in in their quarterly survey.
• CoStar’s inventory includes multifamily rental properties with five or more units. CoStar is
tracking 79 rental housing properties in Carver County, totaling 2,868 units, which repre-
sents 1.1% of the Metro Area’s inventory (269,129 units).
TABLE 46
2023 Q3 2022 Q3 No.Pct.2023 Q3 2022 Q3 No.Pct.
Inventory (units)2,868 2,758 110 4.0%269,129 260,009 9,120 3.5%
Vacant Units 138 74 63 84.9%19,108 17,941 1,168 6.5%
Vacancy Rate 4.8%2.7%--2.1%7.1%6.9%--0.2%
Absorption*47 -27 74 --7,837 8,224 -387 --
Under Construction 1,274 573 701 122.3%15,027 16,931 -1,904 -11.2%
Monthly Rent $1,641 $1,616 $25 1.5%$1,458 $1,441 $17 1.2%
*Previous 12 months
Unit Type Vacancy Rate
Studio 3.1%3.0%--0.1%9.0%11.2%---2.2%
1BR 2.1%3.2%---1.1%7.3%7.1%--0.2%
2BR 2.3%2.5%---0.2%6.6%6.0%--0.6%
3BR 10.3%1.3%--9.0%8.1%5.9%--2.2%
Unit Type Monthly Rent
Studio $1,286 $1,260 $26 2.1%$1,096 $1,096 $0 0.0%
1BR $1,453 $1,434 $19 1.3%$1,285 $1,269 $16 1.3%
2BR $1,631 $1,606 $25 1.6%$1,638 $1,618 $20 1.2%
3BR $2,026 $1,987 $39 2.0%$2,090 $2,066 $24 1.2%
Sources: CoStar; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Ch. ('22 - '23)
Carver County Twin Cities Metro Area
RENTAL HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
2022 Q2 - 2023 Q2
Ch. ('22 - '23)
170
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• Nationally, the equilibrium vacancy rate for rental housing is considered to be 7.0%, alt-
hough 5.0% vacancy is often referenced as being equilibrium locally. Equilibrium vacancy
allows for normal turnover and an adequate supply of alternatives for prospective renters.
- During the third quarter of 2023, vacancy rates were at 4.8% in Carver County compared
to 7.1% in the Twin Cities Metro Area.
- CoStar’s vacancy number include properties that opened recently and are in initial
lease-up. According to the GVA Marquette Advisors Apartment Trends report for the
third quarter of 2023, the vacancy rate among stabilized properties (excluding those in
initial lease-up) in the Metro Area is at 4.2%. CoStar estimates that the stabilized va-
cancy rate in Carver County is at 1.9%.
- This data indicates that vacancy rates in Carver County and the Metro Area are below
equilibrium, suggesting pent-up demand for units.
• In Carver County, three-bedroom units have the highest vacancy rate at 10.3%, followed by
studio units (3.1%). One-bedroom units had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.1% while two-bed-
room units are 2.3% vacant.
• Studio units had the highest vacancy rate in the Metro Area, at 9.0%, followed by three-
bedroom units at 8.1% and one-bedroom units at 7.3%. Two-bedroom units have the tight-
est vacancy rate at 6.6%.
• Vacancy rates increased over the year in the Market Area, climbing 2.1% in Carver County
and 0.2% in the Metro Area.
Total Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR
Carver Co.4.8%3.1%2.1%2.3%10.3%
Metro Area 7.1%9.0%7.3%6.6%8.1%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
Average Vacancy Rate by Unit Type
2023 Q3
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• In Carver County, three-bedroom unit vacancy rates jumped 9.0% over the year, while stu-
dio unit vacancy rates increased 0.1%. Vacancy rates among one- and two-bedroom units
contracted -1.1% and -0.2% respectively over the year.
- By comparison, studio vacancy rates contracted -2.2% over the year in the Metro Area,
while one-, two-, and three-bedroom unit vacancy rates increased 0.2%, 0.6%, and 2.2%,
respectively.
• The following chart illustrates vacancy trends in Carver County compared to the Twin Cities
Metro Area from 2010 through the third quarter of 2023. Carver County has typically
achieved lower rental housing vacancy rates than the Twin Cities Metro Area .
• Vacancy rates generally trended down from 2010 through 2018 in Carver County, declining
from 5.5% in 2010 to 3.4% in 2018. However, vacancy rates jumped to 6.2% in 2019 due to
the delivery of new product. Vacancies decreased to a low of 1.9% in 2021, before climbing
back to 4.8% as of the third quarter of 2023.
• In the Metro Area, vacancy rates declined gradually from 5.7% in 2010 to a low of 4.6% in
2017. Vacancy rates climbed rapidly from 4.9% in 2018 to 7.1% in 2020 . Metro Area vacan-
cies declined to 6.1% in 2021 before increasing to 7.2% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2023.
• Generally, Carver County has maintained below-equilibrium vacancy rates, but Metro Area
vacancy rates surpassed equilibrium in recent years. However, per GVA Marquette Advi-
sors, stabilized vacancy rates in the Metro Area (4.4% in 2020, 3.6% in 2021, and 4.2% in
2022) have remained below equilibrium.
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Q3
Metro Area 5.7%5.3%4.9%5.1%5.0%5.1%4.8%4.6%4.9%5.1%7.1%6.1%7.2%7.1%
Carver Co.5.5%5.0%4.4%4.0%3.9%4.4%2.6%3.9%3.4%6.2%2.6%1.9%2.8%4.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Carver County Market Area
Apartment Vacancy Rate Trends
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Average monthly rents increased 1.5% over the past year to $1,641 in Carver County, com-
pared to a 1.2% increase to $1,458 in the Metro Area. Average rents in Carver County are
12.6% higher than the Metro Area average, as of the third quarter of 2023.
• In Carver County, year-over-year rent growth occurred across all unit types, including a 2.1%
increase among studio units to $1,286, 1.3% growth among one-bedroom units to $1,453, a
1.6% increase in two-bedroom units to $1,631, and 2.0% growth among three-bedroom
units to $2,026.
• The Metro Area experienced flat rent growth among studio units ($1,096), while one- and
two-bedroom units experienced increases of 1.3% to $1,285 and 1.2% to $1,638, respec-
tively. Three-bedroom unit rents increased 1.2% to $2,090.
Total Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR
Carver Co.$1,641 $1,286 $1,453 $1,631 $2,026
Metro Area $1,458 $1,096 $1,285 $1,638 $2,090
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Average Monthly Rent by Unit Type
2023 Q3
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 Q3
Carver County Market Area
Average Monthly Rent Trends
Carver Co.
Metro Area
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• The preceding chart illustrates how the Market Area’s apartment market achieved steady
rent growth since 2010.
- Average rents in Carver County increased 2.5% annually, on average, from 2010 through
2022, outpacing the rate of growth in the Twin Cities Metro Area (2.2% average annual
growth) during that time period.
- However, as noted previously, rent growth flattened slightly over the past year, increas-
ing 1.5% in Carver County and 1.2% in the Metro Area.
• According to CoStar, 7,559 units were absorbed in the Metro Area over the past nine
months (third quarter of 2023) against the delivery of 7,968 units during the same time pe-
riod, as the vacancy rate contracted modestly from 7.2% as of year-end 2022 to 7.1%.
• Over the past several years, strong rental housing demand and rising rents generated ro-
bust development activity and numerous projects have been delivered or are under con-
struction in the Metro Area.
• From 2016 through 2020, 22,719 units were absorbed in the Metro Area against the deliv-
ery of 29,483 units, causing the vacancy rate to climb from 4.8% to 7.1% at year-end 2020
(abovce equilibrium).
- However, a record 12,003 units were absorbed in 2021 against the delivery of 10,147
units, causing vacancy rates to drop to 6.1%. The vacancy rate climbed to 7.2%, as new
deliveries outpaced absorption in 2022.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23 Q3
Vacancy 4.8%4.6%4.9%5.1%7.1%6.1%7.2%7.1%
Absorption 4,440 3,894 4,993 5,104 4,288 12,003 7,036 7,837
Deliveries 4,017 3,721 6,026 5,961 9,758 10,147 10,642 7,968
Under Const.7,300 7,568 9,645 14,334 13,862 15,048 18,449 15,027
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Vacancy RateUnitsTwin Cities Metro Area
Apartment Supply & Demand Trends
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Development activity accelerated in 2021 and 2022, and there were 18,449 units under con-
struction in the Metro Area as of year-end 2022.
• New deliveries are expected to outpace absorption over the next several quarters, which
will cause vacancy to increase.
- CoStar is currently tracking 15,027 units under construction across the Metro Area, in-
cluding 1,274 units under construction in Carver County.
• Carver County absorbed 374 units between 2016 and the third quarter of 2023 against the
delivery of 442 units during that time period, causing the vacancy rate to climb from 2.6% in
2016 to 4.8%.
• Generally, absorption has tracked with new deliveries in Carver County, although with 1,274
units under construction, new deliveries will likely outpace absorption in the County over
the next several quarters. Vacancy rates are expected to increase as a result.
• Should the Market Area’s rental housing market soften as expected, as indicated by rising
vacancy rates, CoStar is forecasting year-over-year rent growth to flatten in the short-term
in Carver County as well as the Twin Cities Metro Area.
• Several new projects have opened recently in Carver County, and detailed information on
these properties, as well as existing, older properties in the County, is summarized on the
following pages.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23 Q3
Vacancy 2.6%3.9%3.4%6.2%2.6%1.9%2.8%4.8%
Absorption 44 -30 90 163 99 -17 -24 49
Deliveries 0 0 81 251 0 0 0 110
Under Const.81 81 251 0 0 0 1,147 1,274
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Vacancy RateUnitsCarver County
Apartment Supply & Demand Trends
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General Occupancy Rental Housing Properties
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC compiled detailed information for general occupancy
rental housing properties in Carver County. The following information is categorized into two
groups; market rate housing (properties that do not have any income restrictions) and afforda-
ble or subsidized properties.
Surveyed market rate rental properties include projects with 24 or more units in the County
along with a select group of smaller properties from communities that have a limited number of
larger (24 units or more) rental housing properties. In total, Maxfield Research surveyed 34
market rate rental housing properties in Carver County.
The data for affordable and subsidized properties includes five properties owned by the Carver
County CDA, 12 Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) properties, three United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture Rural Development (USDA) Section 515 properties that target family house-
holds, and one project-based Section 8 facility.
- The properties owned by the Carver County CDA are restricted to households at 80%
AMI or lower, except for Trails Edge South which is a LIHTC property (60% AMI).
- All of the LIHTC properties in Carver County are income-restricted to households at 60%
AMI or lower, and residents pay basic monthly rents.
- The USDA Rural Development Section 515 program offers loans for the development of
multifamily rental housing targeting “very low” (50% AMI), “low” (80% AMI), and “mod-
erate-income” ($5,500 more than 80% AMI) households. Tenants in Rural Development
Section 515 housing pay basic rent or 30% of their adjusted income, whichever is
greater.
- Rents at the project-based Section 8 property are based on 30% of income.
Data was collected by contacting managers and owners for each of the properties in November
and December of 2023. The rents shown represent quoted rents and have not been adjusted
to reflect the inclusion or exclusion of utilities at this time.
The map on the following page illustrates the location of these general occupancy rental prop-
erties in Carver County, including market rate properties, affordable and subsidized (Carver
County CDA, LIHTC, Rural Development Section 515, and project-based Section 8) facilities.
- As shown, the largest concentrations of surveyed rental properties are in Chaska, Waco-
nia, and Chanhassen.
176
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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General Occupancy Rental Property Location Map
MAP KEY
Market Rate
Affordable/Subsidized
177
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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Market Rate Summary
The table below summarizes the unit mix, vacancies, average unit sizes, and average rental rate
ranges among the surveyed market rate rental properties in Carver County, while the “Market
Rate General Occupancy Rental Properties” table toward the end of this section presents de-
tailed information for each of the properties. Rental rates represent a weighted average based
on the number of units at each property, so buildings with a larger number of units of any one
type contribute more toward the average than those with fewer units.
• We surveyed 34 general occupancy market rate apartment properties in Carver County, to-
taling 2,266 units.
- There are 33 stabilized properties, totaling 2,103 units, and one 163-unit project (The
Otto in Waconia) which opened in late 2023 and is in initial lease-up.
TABLE 47
• Approximately 51% of the units in the market rate inventory are two -bedroom units, while
33% of the units have one bedroom and 9% have three bedrooms. Another 4% of the in-
ventory is comprised of one-bedroom plus den units and 3% of the units are studios.
• On average, units in these general occupancy market rate projects have 945 square feet,
ranging from 547 square feet, on average, for studio units to an average of 1,294 square
feet for three-bedroom units.
- One-bedroom and one-bedroom plus den units average 759 feet and 952 square feet,
respectively, while two-bedroom units average 1,032 square feet.
Total % of Vacant Pct.Avg. Avg. Avg. Rent/
Unit Type Units Total Units*Vacant Size Low -High Rent Sq. Ft.
Studio 78 3%0 0.0%547 $837 -$1,539 $1,285 $2.39
1BR 744 33%19 2.9%759 $715 -$2,085 $1,400 $1.85
1BR+Den 96 4%0 0.0%952 $1,175 -$2,256 $1,526 $1.60
2BR 1,154 51%24 2.2%1,032 $650 -$2,772 $1,565 $1.50
3BR 194 9%4 2.2%1,294 $1,200 -$3,235 $1,817 $1.40
Total:2,266 100%47 2.2%945 $650 -$3,235 $1,521 $1.61
*Vacancy among stabilized properties, excluding properties in initial lease-up
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Range
UNIT TYPE SUMMARY
SELECT MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
December 2023
Monthly Rents
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• At the time of the survey, there were 47 vacant units in the stabilized properties, resulting
in an overall market rate vacancy rate of 2.2% in Carver County.
- Nationally, the equilibrium vacancy rate for market rate rental housing is considered to
be 7.0% which allows for normal turnover and an adequate supply of alternatives for
prospective renters. In effect, the supply of general occupancy market rate rental hous-
ing in the County is below the level to adequately meet demand.
• Vacancy rates are highest among one-bedroom units at 2.9% (19 vacancies), followed by
two-bedroom units at 2.2% (24 vacancies). Three-bedroom units also have a 2.2% vacancy
rate with four vacancies. Studio and one-bedroom plus den units are fully occupied.
• The average rental rate across all market rate general occupancy properties is $1,521 per
month with a range of $837 for a studio unit in Waconia to a high of $3,235 for a three -bed-
room unit in Chanhassen.
• Studio unit rents average $1,285 per month, while one-bedroom units average $1,400 per
month and one-bedroom plus den units average $1,526 per month. Two- and three-bed-
room unit rents average $1,565 and $1,817 per month, respectively.
• On a per square-foot basis (psf), these market rate rental properties have an average rent of
$1.61 psf.
- Studio unit rents average $2.39 psf, one-bedroom units average $1.85 psf, one-bedroom
plus den units average $1.60 psf, two-bedroom units average $1.50 psf, and three-bed-
room units average $1.40 psf.
Studio 1BR 1BR+D 2BR 3BR
Vacant 0 19 0 24 4
Occupied 65 637 88 1,084 182
Vacancy 0.0%2.9%0.0%2.2%2.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Vacancy RateUnitsStabilized Market Rate Rental Properties
Occupancy by Unit Type
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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The following figure summarizes the select general occupancy market rate rental properties by
age, including information on unit mix, average sizes, average monthly rents, and average per
square foot rents.
• Roughly 23% of the units surveyed were in buildings that opened between 2000 and 2010,
while 23% of the units also opened in 2018 or more recently. Another 19% of the units
opened in the 1980s, 19% opened in the 1970s or earlier, and 16% opened in the 1990s.
• With an average rent of $2.08 psf ($1,794 per month), the newest properties (built in 2018
or earlier) are priced 29% higher, on average, than the market average of $1.61 psf.
• Average monthly rents among the market rate units decline with age, ranging from an aver-
age of $1,794 per month among the newest properties to $1,100 per month among proper-
ties building in the 1970s or earlier.
• Rents in the properties that opened in the 2000s average $1,7 86 per month, while 1990s-
era properties have an average rent of $1,503 per month, and buildings that opened in the
1980s have an average monthly rent of $1,303.
Decade Built No. of Avg.Avg.Rent/Decade Built No. of Avg.Avg.Rent/
Unit Type Units Rent Size Sq. Ft.Unit Type Units Rent Size Sq. Ft.
Newest (2018+)2000s
Studio 57 $1,397 543 $2.57 Studio 3 $1,297 599 $2.16
1BR 252 $1,600 765 $2.09 1BR 155 $1,542 861 $1.79
1BR+D 24 $1,943 957 $2.03 1BR+D 12 $1,786 1,031 $1.73
2BR 170 $2,138 1,070 $2.00 2BR 296 $1,857 1,180 $1.57
3BR 12 $2,581 1,355 $1.90 3BR 64 $2,074 1,419 $1.46
Subtotal:515 $1,794 864 $2.08 Subtotal:530 $1,786 1,109 $1.61
1990s 1980s
Studio 4 $1,150 542 $2.12 Studio 0 ------
1BR 90 $1,413 735 $1.92 1BR 57 $1,273 751 $1.69
1BR+D 0 ------1BR+D 28 $1,377 894 $1.54
2BR 185 $1,469 977 $1.50 2BR 315 $1,290 985 $1.31
3BR 78 $1,704 1,252 $1.36 3BR 40 $1,399 1,156 $1.21
Subtotal:357 $1,503 971 $1.55 Subtotal:440 $1,303 964 $1.35
1960s/70s Market Rate Total
Studio 14 $861 553 $1.56 Studio 78 $1,285 547 $2.39
1BR 190 $1,050 681 $1.54 1BR 744 $1,400 759 $1.85
1BR+D 32 $1,245 970 $1.28 1BR+D 96 $1,526 952 $1.60
2BR 188 $1,143 896 $1.28 2BR 1,154 $1,565 1,032 $1.50
3BR 0 ------3BR 194 $1,817 1,294 $1.40
Subtotal:424 $1,100 794 $1.38 Subtotal:2,266 $1,521 947 $1.61
General Occupancy Market Rate Rental Property Summary by Decade Built
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Affordable/Subsidized Property Summary
The table below summarizes the unit mix, vacancies, average unit sizes, and average rental rate
ranges among the surveyed affordable and subsidized rental properties in Carver County, while
the “Affordable/Subsidized General Occupancy Rental Properties” table toward the end of this
section presents detailed information for each of the properties. Rental rates represent a
weighted average based on the number of units at each property.
• We surveyed 21 affordable and subsidized general occupancy apartment properties in
Carver County, totaling 944 units.
TABLE 48
• Approximately 48% of the units in the inventory are two-bedroom units, while 31% of the
units have three bedrooms and 19% have one bedroom. Another 2% of the inventory is
comprised of four-bedroom units, while 1% of the units are studios and less than 1% have
one bedroom plus a den.
• On average, units in these general occupancy affordable and subsidized projects have 1,082
square feet, ranging from 694 square feet, on average, for studio units and an average of
2,063 square feet for four-bedroom units.
- One-bedroom and one-bedroom plus den units both average 840 square feet, while
two- and three-bedroom units average 1,003 square feet and 1,403 square feet, respec-
tively.
Total % of Vacant %Avg. Avg. Avg. Rent/
Unit Type Units Total Units Vacant Size Low -High Rent Sq. Ft.
Studio 11 1%0 0.0%694 $870 -$968 $919 $1.32
1BR 176 19%8 4.5%840 $670 -$1,354 $1,195 $1.42
1BR+D 2 0.2%0 0.0%840 $1,195 -$1,195 $1,195 $1.42
2BR 450 48%23 5.1%1,003 $690 -$1,632 $1,297 $1.33
3BR 289 31%21 7.3%1,403 $710 -$2,009 $1,509 $1.11
4BR 16 2%1 6.3%2,063 $1,450 -$1,877 $1,653 $0.80
Total:944 100%53 5.6%1,082 $670 -$2,009 $1,317 $1.29
*average rents based on the properties with a flat monthly rental rate
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Range
UNIT TYPE SUMMARY
SELECT AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
December 2023
Monthly Rents*
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• At the time of the survey, there were 53 vacant units, resulting in an overall vacancy rate of
5.6% among the affordable and subsidized rental properties in Carver County.
• Vacancy rates are highest among three-bedroom units at 7.3% (21 vacancies), followed by
four-bedroom units at 6.3% (one vacancy). Two-bedroom units have a 5.1% vacancy rate
with 23 vacancies, and one-bedroom units are 4.5% vacant (eight vacancies). Studio and
one-bedroom plus den units are fully occupied.
• The five properties owned by the Carver County CDA contain a total of 293 units with a
3.4% vacancy rate (ten vacancies). The 12 LIHTC properties (624 units) have the highest va-
cancy rate at 6.3% (39 vacant units), while the project-based Section 8 facility and the Rural
Development Section 515 properties are fully occupied.
• Many of these affordable properties are maintaining lengthy prospect lists, ranging from 35
names at Bluff Creek Apartments in Carver and Lake Grace Apartments in Chaska to 55
names at Carver Crossing in Carver and 161 names at Brickyard Apartments in Chaska.
• The weighted average rental rate across the affordable and subsidized properties is $1,317
per month, which equates to $1.29 psf.
Studio 1BR 1BR+D 2BR 3BR 4BR
Vacant 0 8 0 23 21 1
Occupied 11 168 2 427 268 15
Vacancy 0.0%4.5%0.0%5.1%7.3%6.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Vacancy RateUnitsSelect Affordable/Subsidized Rental Projects
Occupancy by Unit Type
182
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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• Studio units average $919 per month ($1.32 psf), while one- and one-bedroom plus den
units both average $1,195 per month ($1.42 psf). Monthly rents in the two-bedroom units
average $1,297 ($1.33 psf), while three- and four-bedroom unit monthly rents average
$1,509 ($1.11 psf) and $1,653 ($0.80 per square foot), respectively.
• The following figure summarizes maximum household incomes by household size at 30%,
50%, 60%, and 80% AMI for residents at these affordable and subsidized facilities.
• Unit types range from studios and one-bedrooms, which target one- to two-person house-
holds, to four-bedroom units which have an eight -person maximum household size. Two-
and three-bedroom units have four- and six-person maximum household sizes, respectively.
HH Size 30% AMI 50% AMI 60% AMI 80% AMI
1-Person $26,100 $43,500 $52,200 $69,600
2-Person $29,820 $49,700 $59,640 $79,520
3-Person $33,540 $55,900 $67,080 $89,440
4-Person $37,260 $62,100 $74,520 $99,360
5-Person $40,260 $67,100 $80,520 $107,360
6-Person $43,230 $72,050 $86,460 $115,280
7-Person $46,230 $77,050 $92,460 $123,280
8-Person $49,200 $82,000 $98,400 $131,200
----- Income Limits by Household Size -----
183
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
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TABLE 49
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
-- No market rate apartment buildings surveyed in Carver --
Venue 2019 134 6 Studio 11 0 447 -447 $1,505 -$1,539 $3.37 -$3.44
541 W 78th St vacancy rate:4.5%1BR 53 0 646 -767 $1,655 -$1,807 $2.36 -$2.56
Chanhassen, MN 1BR+D 4 0 982 -982 $1,695 -$1,695 $1.73 -$1.73
2BR 62 6 920 -1,009 $1,770 -$2,319 $1.92 -$2.30
3BR 4 0 1,357 -1,357 $3,235 -$3,235 $2.38 -$2.38
Notes:
Lake Susan Apts 2001 162 5 1BR 59 4 821 -821 $1,507 -$1,556 $1.84 -$1.90
8260 Market Blvd vacancy rate:3.1%1BR+D 12 0 1,031 -1,031 $1,786 -$1,786 $1.73 -$1.73
Chanhassen, MN 2BR 82 1 1,125 -1,153 $1,848 -$2,018 $1.64 -$1.75
3BR 9 0 1,344 -1,344 $2,164 -$2,164 $1.61 -$1.61
Notes:
Heritage Park 1989 60 0 1BR 18 0 763 -766 $1,460 -$1,555 $1.91 -$2.03
425 Chan View vacancy rate:0.0%1BR+D 6 0 868 -872 $1,565 -$1,665 $1.80 -$1.91
Chanhassen, MN 2BR 36 0 954 -1,100 $1,755 -$1,880 $1.71 -$1.84
Notes:
Chanhassen Village '71/'73 120 0 1BR 69 0 700 -700 $1,080 -$1,180 $1.54 -$1.69
7721 Hwy 101 vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 51 0 945 -954 $1,230 -$1,355 $1.30 -$1.42
Chanhassen, MN
Notes:
Chan View Estates '66/'69 35 0 Studio 2 0 545 -545 $865 -$865 $1.59 -$1.59
420-489 Chan View vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 11 0 690 -690 $937 -$937 $1.36 -$1.36
Chanhassen, MN 2BR 22 0 900 -900 $1,274 -$1,274 $1.42 -$1.42
Notes:
Lake Jonathan Flats 2019 117 8 Studio 26 0 516 -559 $1,400 -$1,420 $2.54 -$2.71
3000 N Chestnut St vacancy rate:6.8%1BR 48 7 768 -811 $1,600 -$1,750 $2.08 -$2.16
Chaska, MN 1BR+D 6 0 950 -993 $2,124 -$2,178 $2.19 -$2.24
2BR 37 1 951 -1,267 $1,875 -$2,528 $1.97 -$2.00
Notes:
Heat, water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Amenities include exercise room, outdoor pool,
garage parking available, on-site laundry, picnic area.
Amenities include community room, weekly coffee hour, car wash, UG parking, fitness center, peti-
friendly, in-unit patio/balcony.
Property contact would not participate in survey. Information is sourced from the management
company website and secondary sources. Heat, water, sewer, trash removal included in rent.
Features include in-unit AC and patio/balcony, on-site laundry, bike storage, off-street parking.
Units feature granite countertops, SS appliances, patio/balcony, full-size washer/dryer. Amenities
include community room, coffee bar with Wi-Fi, outdoor patio, firepit, fitness center, rooftoip lounge,
grilling areas, bike parking , UG parking. Tenant pays all utilities.
---------- continued ----------
MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Chaska
Carver
Units feature granite countertops, balcony, walk-in closets, 9' ceilings, central heat/AC, SS
appliances, washer/dryer. Amenities include outdoor pool, fitness room, conference room, picnic
area, trails, clubhouse, terrace with firepit, package receiving. Tenant pays all utilities.
Monthly Rent
Size
Unit Description Rent/sq. ft.
Chanhassen
Units feature SS appliances, granite countertops, washer/dryer, patio/balcony, AC. Amenities
include UG parking, skydeck and lounge, sports simulator, club room, coffee lounge, on-site Aldi
grocery store.
184
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 175
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Highland Shores 2008 58 1 Studio 2 0 583 -583 $1,180 -$1,190 $2.02 -$2.04
3100 Chestnut St N vacancy rate:1.7%1BR 26 1 830 -1,070 $1,390 -$1,570 $1.47 -$1.67
Chaska, MN 2BR 30 0 1,242 -1,463 $1,770 -$1,995 $1.36 -$1.43
Notes:
Clover Field Marketplace 2008 57 5 1BR 15 2 681 -774 $1,260 -$1,320 $1.71 -$1.85
2915 Clover Ridge Dr vacancy rate:8.8%2BR 29 2 960 -1,139 $1,500 -$1,560 $1.37 -$1.56
Chaska, MN 3BR 13 1 1,364 -1,379 $1,358 -$1,820 $1.00 -$1.32
Notes:
Chaska Place 2004 129 1 Studio 1 0 632 -632 $1,520 -$1,520 $2.41 -$2.41
325 Engler Blvd vacancy rate:0.8%1BR 23 0 644 -802 $1,542 -$1,651 $2.06 -$2.39
Chaska, MN 2BR 78 0 842 -1,305 $1,870 -$1,950 $1.49 -$2.22
3BR 27 1 1,214 -1,393 $2,230 -$2,230 $1.60 -$1.84
Notes:
Lake Hazeltine Woods 2002 42 2 1BR 14 0 1,222 -1,342 $1,985 -$2,085 $1.55 -$1.62
3400 Autumn Woods Dr vacancy rate:4.8%2BR 25 2 1,502 -1,568 $2,050 -$2,195 $1.36 -$1.40
Chaska, MN 3BR 3 0 3,000 -3,000 $3,220 -$3,220 $1.07 -$1.07
Notes:
Sun Lake Woods 2001 82 6 1BR 18 0 816 -839 $1,395 -$1,445 $1.71 -$1.72
1045 Yellow Brick Rd vacancy rate:7.3%2BR 52 5 1,128 -1,282 $1,595 -$1,795 $1.40 -$1.41
Chaska, MN 3BR 12 1 1,392 -1,392 $1,845 -$1,945 $1.33 -$1.40
Notes:
Brickstone Estates 1999 53 0 Studio 4 0 542 -542 $1,150 -$1,150 $2.12 -$2.12
800 Walnut Pl vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 19 0 783 -850 $1,350 -$1,350 $1.59 -$1.72
Chaska, MN 2BR 26 0 1,061 -1,239 $1,550 -$1,550 $1.25 -$1.46
3BR 4 0 1,670 -1,718 $2,000 -$2,000 $1.16 -$1.20
Notes:
Hazeltine Shores 1990 166 0 1BR 48 0 737 -737 $1,650 -$1,650 $2.24 -$2.24
3456 Lake Shore Dr vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 83 0 1,015 -1,030 $1,850 -$1,850 $1.80 -$1.82
Chaska, MN 3BR 35 0 1,380 -1,380 $2,100 -$2,100 $1.52 -$1.52
Notes:
Units feature washer/dryer, walk-in closets, central AC, screened patio/balcony. Amenities include
UG parking, car wash bay, indoor pool, exercise room, billiards room, library, business center.
Units feature SS appliances, granite countertops, full-size washer/dryer, central AC, balcony/ patio.
Amenities include community room WiFi lounge, fitness center, indoor pool, hydration room,
package receiving, picnic area, UG parking (one stall included in rent), car wash bay.
Amenities include grilling area, pet-friendly, patio/balcony on all units, full-size washer/dryer in all
units.
Mixed-income with 59 units income-restricted at 60% AMI plus 57 market rate units. Unable to
obtain information from property management; data sourced from property website and secondary
resources.
TABLE continued
MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Units feature dishwasher, washer/dryer, AC. Some units have SS appliances, quartz countertops,
patio/balcony, walk-in closets. Amenities include lounge, clubroom, fitness center, grill, package
receiving, UG parking available.
---------- continued ----------
Size
Townhome units featuring washer/dryer, central AC, attached garage, patio. Amenities include
outdoor pool and playground.
Units feature granite countertops, walk-in closets, washer/dryer, central AC, patio/balcony.
Amenities include bike racks, grills, fitness center, community room, UG parking, car wash. Garage
space included in rent. Tenant pays water, sewer, trash, gas, and electric.
185
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 176
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Townsquare Apts 1989 30 0 2BR 24 0 970 -1,100 $1,000 -$1,450 $1.03 -$1.32
220 Walnut St vacancy rate:0.0%3BR 6 0 1,372 -1,372 $1,250 -$1,500 $0.91 -$1.09
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Sun Lake Apts 1988 64 1 1BR 10 0 800 -800 $1,280 -$1,295 $1.60 -$1.62
902 Yellow Brick Rd vacancy rate:1.6%1BR+D 22 0 900 -900 $1,305 -$1,320 $1.45 -$1.47
Chaska, MN 2BR 32 1 1,025 -1,025 $1,375 -$1,390 $1.34 -$1.36
Notes:
Waters Edge 1986 120 0 1BR 6 0 800 -800 $1,075 -$1,075 $1.34 -$1.34
218 Waters Edge Dr vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 102 0 966 -988 $1,200 -$1,238 $1.24 -$1.25
Chaska, MN 3BR 12 0 1,134 -1,134 $1,500 -$1,500 $1.32 -$1.32
Notes:
Woodcrest 1986 84 0 1BR 8 0 800 -850 $1,115 -$1,175 $1.38 -$1.39
2479 Woodcrest Dr vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 64 0 1,000 -1,000 $1,240 -$1,290 $1.24 -$1.29
Chaska, MN 3BR 12 0 1,146 -1,146 $1,425 -$1,425 $1.24 -$1.24
Notes:
Barbary Knoll 1975 60 1 1BR 4 0 717 -717 $1,120 -$1,145 $1.56 -$1.60
1595 Millpond Ct vacancy rate:1.7%1BR+D 32 0 970 -970 $1,175 -$1,315 $1.21 -$1.36
Chaska, MN 2BR 24 1 972 -972 $1,240 -$1,315 $1.28 -$1.35
Notes:
Cedar Creek '72/'80 49 1 Studio 1 0 550 -550 $848 -$848 $1.54 -$1.54
135 Crosstown Blvd vacancy rate:2.0%1BR 33 0 731 -731 $1,139 -$1,139 $1.56 -$1.56
Chaska, MN 2BR 15 1 967 -967 $1,210 -$1,230 $1.25 -$1.27
Notes:
Aspen Oaks 1970 44 0 Studio 4 0 475 -475 $880 -$930 $1.85 -$1.96
111201 Village Rd vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 30 0 485 -673 $940 -$1,070 $1.59 -$1.94
Chaska, MN 2BR 10 0 794 -823 $1,105 -$1,130 $1.37 -$1.39
Notes:
Lakeside Villa Apts.1982 13 1 1BR 12 1 625 -625 $1,197 -$1,197 $1.92 -$1.92
315 Paul Ave N vacancy rate:7.7%2BR 1 0 800 -800 $1,400 -$1,400 $1.75 -$1.75
Cologne, MN
Notes:Former project-based Section 8 facility; owner opted out October 2020. Amenities include wall-unit
AC, on-site laundry, off-street parking lot, community room. Tenant pays electric.
Water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Townhome units featuring AC, garage parking
(included in rent), dishwasher. Amenities include on-site laundry, playground.
Heat, water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Features include in-unit dishwashers and AC,
fitness room, on-site laundry. Garage parking available for additional charge.
Features include on-site laundry, in-unit washer/dryer hookups, updated kitchens and dishwashers
in some units, wall AC, playground, garage and off-street parking. Tenant pays water, sewer, trash,
electric, heat. Garage space included in rent.
TABLE continued
MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Size
---------- continued ----------
Units feature vaulted ceilings, gas ranges, wall AC, patio/balcony. Amenities include on-site laundry,
bike racks, off-street parking. Tenant pays water, sewer, trash, and electric. Heat included in rent.
Amenities include balcony on some units, detached garage parking available, playground, in-unit
washer/dryer, outdoor grilling area.
Tenant pays utilities. Manager requested that rent information remain confidential. Amenities
include wall-unit AC, off-street parking, on-site laundry, game room.
Units feature walk-in closets, AC, dishwasher, patio/balcony, and single-stall garage (included in
rent). Amenities include on-site laundry, playground. Heat included in rent. Tenant pays water,
sewer, trash, and electric.
Cologne
186
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 177
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Country Cove 1994 48 2 1BR 2 0 624 -721 $860 -$860 $1.19 -$1.38
100-104 Polar Ridge Dr vacancy rate:4.2%2BR 34 1 861 -912 $995 -$995 $1.09 -$1.16
Norwood Young Am.3BR 12 1 1,218 -1,218 $1,200 -$1,200 $0.99 -$0.99
Notes:
Young America Apts 1974 32 1 1BR 4 0 700 -750 $875 -$900 $1.20 -$1.25
326-404 S Central vacancy rate:3.1%2BR 28 1 800 -900 $950 -$950 $1.06 -$1.19
Norwood Young Am.
Notes:
Huron Rentals '69-'72 24 0 1BR 4 0 700 -700 $715 -$790 $1.02 -$1.13
440 Brad-613 Park vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 20 0 750 -900 $650 -$900 $0.87 -$1.00
Hamburg, MN
Notes:
Deutchland Apts 1983 8 0 1BR 1 0 600 -600 $765 -$765 $1.28 -$1.28
600 Broadway E vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 7 0 750 -750 $800 -$800 $1.07 -$1.07
New Germany, MN
Notes:
Victoria Flats 2018 81 2 Studio 7 0 577 -577 $1,399 -$1,495 $2.42 -$2.59
1699 Stieger Lake Ln vacancy rate:2.5%1BR 51 2 714 -777 $1,650 -$1,790 $2.30 -$2.31
Victoria, MN 1BR+D 6 0 968 -980 $2,136 -$2,256 $2.21 -$2.30
2BR 17 0 1,099 -1,216 $2,296 -$2,772 $2.09 -$2.28
Notes:
Park Vista '79/'91 36 0 1BR 2 0 717 -840 $900 -$900 $1.07 -$1.26
1570 Commercial Ave vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 30 0 840 -1,020 $1,050 -$1,100 $1.08 -$1.25
Victoria, MN 3BR 4 0 960 -1,065 $1,200 -$1,200 $1.13 -$1.25
Notes:
The Otto 2023 163 117 Studio 13 1 556 -675 $1,195 -$1,285 $1.90 -$2.15
601 Industrial Blvd W vacancy rate:71.8%1BR 88 66 722 -814 $1,285 -$1,565 $1.78 -$1.92
Waconia, MN 1BR+D 8 5 903 -936 $1,681 -$1,761 $1.86 -$1.88
2BR 46 42 1,043 -1,191 $1,833 -$2,350 $1.76 -$1.97
3BR 8 3 1,354 -1,354 $2,208 -$2,300 $1.63 -$1.70
Notes:
Four 8-unit buildings. Amenities include in-unit AC, off-street parking. Tenant pays electric. Heat,
water, sewer, trash removal included in rent.
Former Rural Development Section 515 building. Water, sewer, trash removal included in rent.
Amenities include wall-unit AC, off-street parking, on-site laundry.
Property contact would not respond to survey request - information obtained from secondary
sources. Former LIHTC property. Units feature breakfast bar, master suite walk-in closet, AC, patio or
palcony. Amenities include playground, off-street parking, garage parking available. Heat, water,
sewer, trash removal included in rent.
Units feature private entrances, washer/dryer. Garage parking available for $75/month. Water,
sewer, trash removal included in rent.
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Size
---------- continued ----------
Three buildings (12 units at 450 Brad St, 8 units at 440 Brad St, 4 units at 613 Park Ave). Unit sizes
estimated. Former Rural Development Section 515 buildings. Properties offer off-street parking.
Tenant pays utilities. Manager requested that rent information remain confidential.
Mayer - New Germany
Waconia
Victoria
Units feature granite countertops, SS appliances, washer/dryer, balcony. Amenities include fitness
center, grilling stations, rooftop deck, package system, pet-friendly, garage parking.
Open December 2023; in initial lease-up . Units feature SS appliances, quartz countertops, balcony,
walk-in closets, AC, washer/dryer. Amenities include theater, fitness center, yoga room, UG parking,
community room, bike storage, package room, rooftop deck, co-working lounges.
Hamburg - Norwood Young America
MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
TABLE continued
187
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 178
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
City Homes 2019 20 1 1BR 12 1 995 -995 $1,495 -$1,495 $1.50 -$1.50
27-29 10th St W vacancy rate:5.0%2BR 8 0 1,260 -1,260 $1,995 -$1,995 $1.58 -$1.58
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Prairie Village 1993 60 1 1BR 18 1 657 -670 $990 -$990 $1.48 -$1.51
800 Meadow Lake Pl vacancy rate:1.7%2BR 24 0 770 -947 $1,050 -$1,050 $1.11 -$1.36
Waconia, MN 3BR 18 0 984 -1,060 $1,370 -$1,370 $1.29 -$1.39
Notes:
Timberlea Terrace 1993 30 1 1BR 3 0 670 -670 $930 -$930 $1.39 -$1.39
930 Farm Line Rd vacancy rate:3.3%2BR 18 1 850 -850 $1,050 -$1,050 $1.24 -$1.24
Waconia, MN 3BR 9 0 1,060 -1,060 $1,370 -$1,370 $1.29 -$1.29
Notes:
Park Apts.1971 36 0 1BR 18 0 645 -645 $895 -$925 $1.39 -$1.43
140 E Main St vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 18 0 780 -780 $1,025 -$1,055 $1.31 -$1.35
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Galway on the Lake 1960 24 0 Studio 7 0 600 -600 $837 -$837 $1.40 -$1.40
33 Lake St W vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 17 0 700 -700 $937 -$937 $1.34 -$1.34
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Turnbridge Wells 1983 25 1 2BR 19 1 900 -1,000 $1,200 -$1,200 $1.20 -$1.33
517-527 Stevens St SW vacancy rate:4.0%3BR 6 0 1,100 -1,100 $1,300 -$1,300 $1.18 -$1.18
Watertown, MN
Notes:
Stabilized Properties Subtotal:2,103 47 vacant
vacancy rate:2.2%
Properties in Initial Lease-up:163 117 vacant
Total:2,266 164 vacant
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Rental townhouse units. One-bedroom units have single-stall attached garage, two-bedrooms have
attached two-stall garage.
TABLE continued
MARKET RATE GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
Rental townhomes. Tenant pays gas and electric. Water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Unit
sizes estimated. Amenities include private entrance, wall AC, off-street parking.
Property contact would not respond to survey request - information obtained from secondary
sources. Units feature breakfast bar, master suite walk-in closet, AC, patio or balcony. Amenities
include playground, off-street parking, garage parking available ($50/month). Heat, water, sewer,
trash removal included in rent.
Property contact would not respond to survey request - information obtained from secondary
sources. Units feature breakfast bar, master suite walk-in closet, AC, patio or balcony. Amenities
include playground, off-street parking, garage parking available ($75/month). Heat, water, sewer,
trash removal included in rent.
Amenities include in-unit AC, on-site laundry, garage parking available, pet-friendly. Water, sewer,
heat, trash removal included in rent. Unable to make contact; information from company website
and secondary resources.
Amenities include on-site laundry, off-street parking. Heat included in rent. Currently being updated
with new siding.
Watertown
CARVER COUNTY
Size
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
188
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 179
The following are photographs of select market rate rental properties in Carver County.
Venue – Chanhassen
Lake Susan Apartments – Chanhassen
Lake Jonathon Flats – Chaska
Brickstone Estates – Chaska
Lakeside Villa – Cologne Huron Rentals – Hamburg
189
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 180
The following are photographs of select market rate rental properties in Carver County.
Young America Apartments – Norwood
Young America
Country Cove – Norwood Young
America
Deutchland Apartments – New Germany
Victoria Flats – Victoria
The Otto – Waconia Turnbridge Wells – Watertown
190
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 181
TABLE 50
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Bluff Creek Apts 1992 18 3 1BR 1 0 875 -875 $991 -$991 $1.13 -$1.13
1800 Main vacancy rate:16.7%2BR 17 3 1,025 -1,025 $1,061 -$1,061 $1.04 -$1.04
Carver, MN
Notes:
Lake Grace Apts 1972 91 2 1BR 36 1 640 -640 $941 -$981 $1.47 -$1.53
1108 Village Rd vacancy rate:2.2%2BR 36 1 840 -840 $1,114 -$1,114 $1.33 -$1.33
Chaska, MN 3BR 19 0 1,190 -1,190 $1,435 -$1,435 $1.21 -$1.21
Notes:
Brickyard Apts.2001 32 0 Studio 11 0 694 -694 $870 -$968 $1.25 -$1.39
710-709 Walnut St vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 19 0 635 -694 $1,039 -$1,043 $1.50 -$1.64
Chaska, MN 1BR+D 2 0 840 -840 $1,195 -$1,195 $1.42 -$1.42
Notes:
Windstone Townhomes 1971 92 0 1BR 10 0 941 -941 $967 -$967 $1.03 -$1.03
110550 Windmill Ct vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 60 0 1,241 -1,241 $1,136 -$1,136 $0.92 -$0.92
Chaska, MN 3BR 22 0 1,492 -1,492 $1,351 -$1,402 $0.91 -$0.94
Notes:
Trails Edge South 2022 60 5 1BR 15 1 648 -794 $978 -$978 $1.23 -$1.51
885 Airport Rd vacancy rate:8.3%2BR 30 3 885 -1,047 $1,150 -$1,271 $1.21 -$1.30
Waconia, MN 3BR 15 1 1,151 -1,186 $1,325 -$1,464 $1.15 -$1.23
Notes:
Carver Crossing 2016 68 1 1BR 14 0 796 -807 $1,000 -$1,346 $1.26 -$1.67
1593 Hartwell Dr vacancy rate:1.5%2BR 36 1 1,013 -1,315 $1,200 -$1,610 $1.18 -$1.22
Carver, MN 3BR 18 0 1,294 -1,352 $1,380 -$1,857 $1.07 -$1.37
Notes:
Gateway Place 2008 48 2 1BR 4 1 896 -896 $1,137 -$1,137 $1.27 -$1.27
721 Lake Susan Dr vacancy rate:4.2%2BR 27 1 1,041 -1,041 $1,529 -$1,529 $1.47 -$1.47
Chanhassen, MN 3BR 17 0 1,386 -1,386 $1,763 -$1,763 $1.27 -$1.27
Notes:
Carver County CDA Properties
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower. Includes 4
RAD units restricted at 50% AMI and 5 project-based Section 8 units (2 regular PBV, 1 homeless PBV,
2 mainstream PBV). Currently 35 names on waitlist for Bluff Creek and Lake Grace.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower. Includes 10
PBV units serving 50% AMI HHs and 5 Section 811 PRA units serving 30% AMI HHs. Rent includes
heat. Currently 35 names on waitlist at Lake Grace and Bluff Creek.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower. Includes 8
PBV units at 50% AMI. Currently, 161 names on interest list.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Includes 4 PBV and 9 other units serving HHs at 50% AMI. Income-
restricted to households earning 80% AMI or lower.
Carver County CDA LIHTC property income-restricted at 60% AMI. Includes 8 PBV units at 50% AMI
along with 4 HPH and 4 PWD units at 30% AMI> Units feature diswasher, AC, washer/dryer,
patio/balcony. Amenities include playground, fitness center, bike racks, UG parking.
Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) Properties
Income-restricted to residents at 60% AMI or lower. Water, sewer, trash, heat included in rent. Units
feature AC, dishwasher, kitchen island, patio/deck, washer/dryer. Amenities include picnic area,
fitness center, community room, elevator, playground, UG parking. Currently maintaining a
prospect list with 55 names on the list.
Income-restricted at 60% AMI or lower. Heat, UG and surface parking, storage space included in
rent. Units feature dishwasher, washer/dryer, AC, breakfast bar, walk-in closets, patio/deck.
Amenities include playground, on-site laundry, fitness center.
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Monthly RentUnit Description Rent/sq. ft.
Size
---------- continued ----------
191
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 182
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
East Creek Carriage 1998 39 1 2BR 15 0 1,171 -1,171 $1,184 -$1,448 $1.01 -$1.24
744 Ravoux Rd vacancy rate:2.6%3BR 24 1 1,344 -1,344 $1,364 -$1,669 $1.01 -$1.24
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Brickstone Townhomes 1999 30 1 3BR 28 1 1,320 -2,046 $1,683 -$1,683 $0.82 -$1.28
850 Walnut Pl vacancy rate:3.3%4BR 2 0 2,046 -2,046 $1,877 -$1,877 $0.92 -$0.92
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Carver Ridge Townhomes 1999 82 3 1BR 5 0 650 -650 $1,100 -$1,100 $1.69 -$1.69
340 Crosstown Blvd vacancy rate:3.7%2BR 76 3 750 -853 $1,350 -$1,350 $1.58 -$1.80
Chaska, MN 3BR 1 0 1,000 -1,000 $1,727 -$1,727 $1.73 -$1.73
Notes:
Crosstown Commons 1980 34 3 1BR 22 3 650 -650 $1,254 -$1,354 $1.93 -$2.08
1200 Crosstown Blvd vacancy rate:8.8%2BR 12 0 750 -750 $1,520 -$1,620 $2.03 -$2.16
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Clover Field Marketplace 2008 59 4 1BR 16 2 681 -774 $1,260 -$1,320 $1.71 -$1.85
2915 Clover Ridge Dr vacancy rate:6.8%2BR 29 2 960 -1,139 $1,500 -$1,560 $1.37 -$1.56
Chaska, MN 3BR 14 0 1,364 -1,379 $1,358 -$1,820 $1.00 -$1.32
Notes:
Creek's Run I 2014 40 6 2BR 7 1 1,730 -1,730 $1,400 -$1,400 $0.81 -$0.81
421 Yellow Brick Cir vacancy rate:15.0%3BR 25 4 1,850 -1,850 $1,600 -$1,600 $0.86 -$0.86
Chaska, MN 4BR 8 1 2,065 -2,065 $1,750 -$1,750 $0.85 -$0.85
Notes:
Creek's Run II 2017 38 1 2BR 4 0 1,730 -1,730 $1,150 -$1,150 $0.66 -$0.66
421 Yellow Brick Cir vacancy rate:2.6%3BR 28 1 1,850 -1,850 $1,319 -$1,319 $0.71 -$0.71
Chaska, MN 4BR 6 0 2,065 -2,065 $1,450 -$1,450 $0.70 -$0.70
Notes:
---------- continued ----------
TABLE continued
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Size
Income-restricted at 60% AMI with 4 LTH units at 30% AMI. Amenities include attached garage,
fitness center, playground, clubhouse. Units feature washer/dryer, AC, patio.
Mixed-income with 59 units income-restricted at 60% AMI plus 57 market rate units. Project-based
rent assistance for 21 households. Unable to obtain information from property management; data
sourced from property website and secondary resources.
Income-restricted at 60% AMI with 4 LTH units at 30% AMI. Amenities include attached garage,
fitness center, playground, clubhouse. Units feature washer/dryer, AC, patio.
Income-restricted with 23 units at 60% AMI, 16 units at 50% AMI, and 5 MHOP units (rents based
on 30% AGI). Water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Units feature dishwasher, washer/dryer,
central heat/AC, patio/deck. Amenities include attached garage and playground.
Income-restricted at 60% AMI or lower with 4 MHOP units at 30% AMI. Rent includes heat. Units
feature central heat and AC, patio, washer/dryer. Amenities include playground, attached garage,
picnic area.
Mixed-income with 82 units income-restricted at 60% AMI or lower plus 10 market rate units (one
2BR at $1,539 and nine 3BR at $1,850). Units feature dishwasher and AC. Amenities include on-
site laundry, covred parking, playground, fitness center, package receiving, clubhouse, business
center, pet-friendly.
Income-restricted at 60% AMI. Rent includes heat, water, trash removal. Units feature updated
white cabinetry, granite countertops, SS appliances, AC, and some with walk-in closets. Amenities
include outdoor patio with grilling area, on-site laundry, off-street parking.
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Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
InterLaken Place 2008 48 11 2BR 26 2 815 -815 $1,175 -$1,175 $1.44 -$1.44
925 Airport Rd vacancy rate:22.9%3BR 22 9 950 -950 $1,550 -$1,550 $1.63 -$1.63
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Vista Ridge 2020 51 10 1BR 12 0 674 -674 $1,045 -$1,045 $1.55 -$1.55
861 Vista Blvd vacancy rate:19.6%2BR 24 6 916 -916 $1,290 -$1,290 $1.41 -$1.41
Waconia, MN 3BR 15 4 1,184 -1,360 $1,550 -$1,550 $1.14 -$1.31
Notes:
Waters Edge Townhomes 2000 30 0 2BR 9 0 1,040 -1,088 $1,176 -$1,176 $1.08 -$1.13
828 County Rd 24 vacancy rate:0.0%3BR 21 0 1,206 -1,206 $1,208 -$1,208 $1.00 -$1.00
Watertown, MN
Notes:
Fox Run Apts.1986 24 0 1BR 12 0 650 -650 $670 -$875 $1.03 -$1.35
28 W 13th St vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 8 0 1,143 -1,143 $690 -$895 $0.60 -$0.78
Waconia, MN 3BR 4 0 1,200 -1,200 $710 -$915 $0.59 -$0.76
Notes:
Hillside 1987 8 0 1BR 8 0 510 -510 $805 -$805 $1.58 -$1.58
101 Angel Ave SW vacancy rate:0.0%
Watertown, MN
Notes:
Poplar Ridge 1989 24 0 1BR 2 0 584 -610 NA NA
10 Poplar Ridge Dr vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 14 0 778 -778
Young America, MN 3BR 8 0 1,026 -1,026
Notes:
Chaska Village THs 1980 28 0 2BR 20 0 960 -1,110 $1,632 -$1,632 $1.47 -$1.70
1111 Crosstown Blvd vacancy rate:0.0%3BR 8 0 1,160 -1,160 $2,009 -$2,009 $1.73 -$1.73
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Total:944 53 Vacant
5.6%Vacancy Rate
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Size
TABLE continued
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
Rents based on 30% of income. Amenities include business center, community garden, picnic area,
playground.
Project-Based Section 8 Properties
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Amenities include on-site laundry, washer-dryer hookups, patio/balcony (some units), community
terrace, playground, detached garage parking (additional fee). Vacancy from property website;
unable to obtain base rent data from property manager. Most residents at Section 515 facilities
pay 30% AGI for rent.
Complex has 8 family designated units (Hillside bldg) and 22 units designated for residents age 62+
(Riverside bldg). Heat, water, trash removal included in rent. Amenities include community room,
pet-friendly, and on-site laundry. Quoted rent ($805) effective 1/1/24. Extensive waitlist
(applicants waiting over a year).
Income-resricted at 60% AMI. Rent includes heat. Units feature dishwasher, AC, and washer/dryer.
Amenities include off-street parking, playground, UG parking, fitness center.
Heat, water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Amenities include off-street parking with plug-
ins, on-site laundry, storage units, playground.
Rural Development Section 515 Properties
Income-restricted to households at 60% AMI or lower. Units feature dishwasher, AC, washer/dryer.
Amenities include fitness center, playground, UG parking.
Income-restricted to households at 60% AMI or lower with 8 MHOP units with rents based on 30%
AGI. Currently, one person on waitlist for units.
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The following are pictures of select affordable/subsidized rental properties in Carver County.
Carver Crossing – Carver
Bluff Creek Apartments – Carver
Gateway Place – Chanhassen
Brickyard Apartments – Chaska
Crosstown Commons – Chaska Chaska Village Townhomes - Chaska
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The following are pictures of select affordable/subsidized rental properties in Carver County.
Trails Edge South – Waconia
InterLaken Place – Waconia
Fox Run Apartments – Waconia
Waters Edge Townhomes – Watertown
Hillside – Watertown Poplar Ridge – Norwood Young America
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Pending Rental Housing Developments
Maxfield Research compiled information provided by municipal staff from the communities lo-
cated in Carver County to identify any general occupancy rental housing developments that are
proposed, planned, or under construction that may impact future demand for rental housing in
the County.
The table on the following page summarizes pending general occupancy apartment develop-
ments in the County with their locations, number of units and name of developer, if known.
• We identified 14 pending rental housing developments in the County, containing a total of
2,221 new rental units under construction, approved, or proposed.
- Ten of the pending developments are market rate (1,448 units) and there are two af-
fordable projects, totaling 76 units. There are also two preliminary projects, totaling
697 units, where the mix of market rate or affordable units is not known at this time.
• Six projects, totaling 695 units are under construction and two other projects, totaling 320
units, have been approved.
- Approximately 1,206 units in six projects have been proposed and are in various stages
of a planning approval process.
• Five of the pending developments, totaling 702 units are in the City of Chaska (32% of all
units in the development pipeline), while another 31% of the units (697) are in the City of
Chanhassen. There are 343 pending units in the City of Victoria (15%) and 323 units (15%)
pending in the City of Waconia. There is also a 60-unit affordable project proposed in
Carver (4%) and a 96-unit market rate project (4%) proposed in Watertown.
• Units that are under construction or approved and expected to move forward in the near-
term are included in the demand calculations presented later in this study.
- In total, we include 999 market rate units from seven developments in our demand cal-
culations (Hazeltine Plaza, Oak Ridge Commons, Clover Ridge Apartments, Rowe, The
Uptown, The Gallery, and Downtown West Phase I).
- We also incorporate the 16-unit West Creek Apartments into our projections for subsi-
dized rental housing.
• Due to the preliminary nature of the proposed projects, we exclude these units from our
demand calculations.
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TABLE 51
Project Name & Location City Units Developer/Applicant Status/Notes
Projects Under Construction
Hazeltine Plaza Chaska 112 Trident Development Under Construction
Hazeltine Blvd at Hundertmark Market rate
Oak Ridge Commons Chaska 280 RCA Oak Ridge LLC Under Construction
1 Oak Ridge Dr Market rate
Clover Ridge Apts Chaska 119 AV Development, LLC Under Construction
Pioneer Trl & Clover Ridge Dr Market rate
West Creek Apartments*Chaska 16 Community Asset *Targets homeless
401 Hickory St Development Group young adults
Rowe Victoria 125 Roers Development Under Construction
Hwy 5 at Rose St Market rate
The Uptown Waconia 43 Lundgren Construction Under Construction
233 Olive St S Market rate
Approved Projects
The Gallery Chaska 175 Chase Real Estate Approved
Clover Ridge Dr Market rate
Downtown West Ph I Victoria 145 Marco McLane Approved
Stieger Lake Ln Development, LLC Market rate
Proposed Projects
Carver Place Carver 60 Carver County CDA Proposed
1591 Hartwell Dr Affordable
Chanhassen Cinema Project Chanhassen 280 Roers Development Proposed; 2 buildings
78th St at Market Blve Market rate
Avienda Chanhassen 417 Level 7 Development Proposed
Lyman Blvd at Powers Blvd
Gannon Property Victoria 73 Monarch Development Proposed
Quamoclit St at Tower Blvd Partners, LLC Market rate
Kirsch Property Waconia 280 Tamarack Land Proposed
Airport Rd 105-280 units potential
Spring Mill Watertown 96 Elk Development LLC Proposed; Eight 12-unit
Paul Ave at Co Rd 24 Market rate buildings
Total
Under Construction Subtotal:695
Approved Subtotal:320
Preliminary/Proposed Subtotal:1,206
Total Pending Units:2,221
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
PENDING GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
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Senior Housing Analysis
Introduction
This section provides an assessment of the market support for senior housing , including a re-
view of demographic and economic characteristics of the senior population along with detailed
information on existing and pending senior housing facilities in Carver County. The senior hous-
ing survey includes affordable and market rate active adult properties, as well as service-en-
hanced facilities that provide independent living, assisted living, and/or memory care services.
Data on the senior housing facilities was collected in December 2023 and January 2024. Topics
covered in this section of the analysis include.
A definition of senior housing product types
An overview of older adult and senior demographic characteristics in the County
Detailed information on senior housing facilities
An inventory of pending senior housing developments in the County
Secondary data resources utilized for this analysis include the U.S Census Bureau Decennial
Census and American Community Survey (“ACS”), along with ESRI and the Metropolitan Coun-
cil. Information from Care Options Network and the Health Care Provider Directory from the
Minnesota Department of Health was also referenced.
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Senior Housing Defined
Senior housing is a concept that generally refers to the integrated delivery of housing and
services to seniors. However, as Figure 1 illustrates, senior housing embodies a wide variety of
product types across the service-delivery spectrum.
FIGURE 1
CONTINUUM OF HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR SENIORS
Products range from independent apartments and/or townhomes with virtually no services on
one end, to highly specialized, service-intensive assisted living units or housing geared for
people with dementia-related illnesses (termed "memory care") on the other end of the
spectrum.
In general, independent senior housing attracts people age 65 and over while assisted living
typically attracts people age 80 and older who need assistance with activities of daily living
(ADLs).
For analytical purposes, Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC classifies senior housing into five
primary categories based on the level and type of services offered as described in the figure on
the following page.
Facilities referred to as “catered living” offer a flexible living arrangement where residents can
live independently and purchase assisted living services as needed without relocating to a unit
specifically designated for independent living or assisted living.
Single-family
Home
Townhome or
Apartment
Independent Living
Apartments w/
Optional Services
Assisted Living Skilled Nursing
Active Adult
Age-Restricted Townhomes,
Apartments, Condos,
Cooperatives
Independent Living
Apartments w/
Intensive Services Memory Care
FULLY
INDEPENDENT
LIFESTYLE
FULLY OR
HIGHLY
DEPENDENT
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Active Adult
Active Adult properties (or independent living without services available) are similar to a general-
occupancy building, in that they offer virtually no services but have age-restrictions (typically 55 or
62 or older). Residents are generally age 70 or older if in an apartment-style building. Organized
entertainment, activities and occasionally a transportation program represent the extent of ser-
vices typically available at these properties. Because of the lack of services, active adult properties
generally do not command the rent premiums of more service-enriched senior housing. Active
adult properties can have a rental or owner-occupied (condominium or cooperative) format.
Independent Living
Independent Living properties offer support services such as meals and/or housekeeping, either on
an optional basis or a limited amount included in the rents. These properties often dedicate a
larger share of the building to common areas, because units are smaller than in active adult hous-
ing and to encourage socialization. Independent living properties attract a slightly older target
market than adult housing (i.e. seniors age 75 or older). Rents are also above those of active adult
buildings. Sponsorship by a nursing home, hospital or health care organization is common.
Assisted Living
Assisted Living properties come in a variety of forms, but the target market for most is generally
the same: very frail seniors, typically age 80 or older (but can be much younger, depending on their
health situation), who need extensive support services and personal care assistance. Absent an as-
sisted living option, these seniors would otherwise need to move to a nursing facility. At a mini-
mum, assisted living properties include two meals per day and weekly housekeeping in the
monthly fee, with the availability of a third meal and personal care (either included in the monthly
fee or for an additional cost). Assisted living properties also have staff on duty 24 hours per day or
at least 24-hour emergency response.
Memory Care
Memory Care properties, designed specifically for persons suffering from Alzheimer’s disease or
other dementias, is one of the newest trends in senior housing. Properties consist mostly of suite-
style or studio units or occasionally one-bedroom apartment-style units, and large amounts of
communal areas for activities and programming. In addition, staff typically undergoes specialized
training in the care of this population. Because of the greater amount of individualized personal
care required by residents, staffing ratios are much higher than traditional assisted living and thus,
the costs of care are also higher. Unlike conventional assisted living, however, which addresses
housing needs almost exclusively for widows or widowers, a higher proportion of persons afflicted
with Alzheimer’s disease are in two-person households. That means the decision to move a spouse
into a memory care facility involves the caregiver’s concern of incurring the costs of health care at
a special facility while continuing to maintain their home.
Skilled Nursing Care
Skilled Nursing Care, or long-term care, provides a living arrangement that integrates shelter and
food with medical, nursing, psychosocial and rehabilitation services for persons who require 24-
hour nursing supervision. Residents in skilled nursing homes can be funded under Medicare, Medi-
caid, Veterans, HMOs, insurance as well as use of private funds.
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Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends
The Demographic Review section of this study presented general demographic characteristics
of the population and household base in Carver County. The following points summarize key
findings from that section as they pertain to the older adult and senior population in the
County.
• Rapid growth is expected to occur among older adults in Carver County. Aging of baby
boomers led to 124% growth in the 65 to 74 population in the County between 2010 and
2023, adding 5,147 people. As this group ages, the 65 and older age cohorts are expected
to experience increases between 2023 and 2040.
- The 75 and older age group is projected to grow 52%, adding 2,662 people between
2023 and 2030, then add another 9,649 people (124% growth) between 2030 and 2040 .
- The 65 to 74 age group is projected to expand 35% (3,284 people) between 2023 and
2030 and 14% (1,800 people) between 2030 and 2040.
- Slightly more modest growth is projected for the 55 to 64 age group, increasing 10%
(1,458 people) between 2023 and 2030 and 8% (1,284 people) between 2030 and 2040 .
• The key market for active adult housing is comprised of senior households age 65 and older,
although many active adult properties are restricted to residents age 55 and older. The pri-
mary market for service-enhanced housing is senior households age 75 and older.
• While individuals in their 50s and 60s typically do not comprise the market base for service-
enhanced senior housing, they often have elderly parents to whom they provide support
when they decide to relocate to senior housing. Elderly parents often prefer to be near
their adult caregivers, so the older adult age cohort (age 55 to 64) also generates some ad-
ditional demand for service-enhanced senior housing products.
2010 2023 2030 2040
75+3,547 5,128 7,789 17,438
65 to 74 4,160 9,307 12,591 14,391
55 to 64 9,110 15,037 16,496 17,780
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Population Growth By Older Adult/Senior Age Group
Carver County
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• The frailer the senior, the greater the proportion of their income they will typically spend on
housing and services. Studies have shown that seniors are willing to pay increasing propor-
tions of their incomes on housing with services, with income allocations as follows: 40% to
50% for market rate active adult senior housing, 65% for independent living, and 80% to
90% or more for assisted living housing.
- The proceeds from home sale, as well as financial assistance from their adult children,
are often used as supplemental income to afford senior housing alternatives.
• The target market for affordable active adult housing is households age 65 and older with
incomes at or below 60% Area Median Income (AMI), although some affordable properties
may be restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower. At 60% AMI, household income lim-
its are $52,200 for a one-person household and $59,640 for a two-person household.
- As of 2023, there are an estimated 3,552 households age 65 and older in the County
with incomes at or below $59,640 (32% of all age 65 and older households). The num-
ber of households projected to income-qualify for affordable active adult housing at
60% AMI is projected to increase by 2,232 households in 2030 (63% growth).
• The key market for market rate active adult housing is comprised of senior households (age
65 and older) with incomes of $40,000 or more. Older adult and senior households with in-
comes of $40,000 allocating 40% of their income toward housing costs could afford monthly
rents of $1,333, slightly higher than the average rent of $1,317 for one-bedroom units in the
existing market rate active adult rental properties in Carver County.
- In 2023, we estimate there are an estimated 6,304 age- (65 and older) and income-qual-
ified households in the County that comprise the key market for active adult housing.
The number of age- and income-qualified households is expected to grow 44% to 9,070
households by 2030, after accounting for inflation.
• Independent living housing demand is driven by senior households age 75 and older with
incomes of $40,000 or more. We estimate the number of age- and income-qualified house-
holds in the County to be 1,900 householders in 2023, increasing to 2,954 householders
(56% growth) in 2030.
• The target market for assisted living housing is senior households age 75 and older with in-
comes of at least $40,000 (plus senior homeowners with lower incomes). As of 2023, there
are an estimated 1,898 older senior households (age 75 and older) in the County with in-
comes of at least $40,000, accounting for 58% of all older senior households.
- Including all households with incomes of $45,000 and over (adjusted for inflation), the
number of older senior households projected to income-qualify for assisted living is ex-
pected to grow 56% to 2,954 households in 2030.
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• Memory care housing has a target market of senior households age 65 and older with a
memory impairment and incomes of at least $60,000. We estimate that roughly 15% of the
senior population has a memory impairment.
- In 2023, we estimate that there are 4,687 age 65 and older households in the County
with incomes of at least $60,000, accounting for 54% of all senior households. Based on
the estimated 15% incidence rate of Alzheimer’s/dementia, approximately 703 house-
holds in the County are candidates for memory care housing in 2023.
- The number of income-qualified ($65,000 adjusted for inflation) households is projected
to increase 46% to 6,838 by 2030 (1,026 households eligible for memory care housing
based on the 15% incidence rate).
• The income qualifications identified above account for pricing at existing, older, market rate
senior housing products in the County. We expect that new construction senior housing de-
velopment will be priced higher than much of the existing product, so higher household in-
comes may be needed to support new construction senior housing.
• Between 2023 and 2030, senior (age 65 and older) population growth is expected to be
strongest in the Chanhassen Submarket, with the addition of 1,973 seniors (54% growth),
followed by the Chaska (1,055 seniors, 36% growth) and Waconia (844 seniors, 45% growth)
Submarkets.
Affordable
Active Adult
Market Rate
Active Adult
Independent
Living
Assisted
Living Memory Care
2023 3,552 6,304 1,900 1,898 703
2030 5,784 9,070 2,954 2,954 1,026
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Households Age-and Income-Qualified for
Senior Housing in Carver County in 2023 & 2030
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• As depicted in the following graph, age- and income-qualified household growth between
2023 and 2030 is projected to be strongest for market rate active adult senior housing, fol-
lowed by affordable active adult housing. Slightly more modest growth among households
age- and income-qualified for service-enhanced (independent living, assisted living, memory
care) senior housing is anticipated.
• Homeownership information lends insight into the number of households that may still
have homes to sell and could potentially supplement their incomes from the sales of their
homes to support monthly fees for alternative housing. Carver County maintains home-
ownership rates in the older adult age cohorts that are slightly higher than the Metro Area.
• The estimated homeownership rate is 88% for age 55 to 64 households compared to 81%
throughout the Metro Area. The County’s homeownership rate for age 65 to 74 households
remains at 88% compared to 82% in the Metro.
• Seniors typically begin to consider moving into senior housing alternatives in their early to
mid-70s. This movement pattern is demonstrated by a decline in homeownership between
the 65 to 74 age cohort (88%) and the 75 and older age cohort (67%) in the County. Metro
Area homeownership rates dropped from 82% (age 65 to 74) to 69% (age 75 and older).
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Active Adult (Aff)
Active Adult (MR)
Independent Living
Assisted Living
Memory Care
Active Adult
(Aff)
Active Adult
(MR)
Independent
LivingAssisted LivingMemory Care
Carver 191219808023
Chanhassen 672877301301102
Chaska 39243615515552
Cologne 65113474713
Hamburg-NYA 229197717121
Mayer-NG 115120535312
Victoria 18422712212230
Waconia 34037114814840
Watertown 67151585820
Age-and Income-Qualified Household Growth by
Submarket and Service Level: 2023 -2030
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• Among the Carver County submarkets, senior household (age 65 and older) homeownership
rates are highest in the Carver (99.0%), Mayer-New Germany (97.8%), and Victoria (93.2%)
Submarkets. Senior homeownership rates are lowest in the Chaska (59.4%), Waconia
(70.6%), and Hamburg-Norwood Young America (72.8%) Submarkets.
• The Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket has the largest shift in homeownership
rates between the 65 to 74 cohort (100%) and 75 and older cohort (48%), followed by the
Chaska Submarket (77% homeownership among age 65 to 74 households, 37% among age
75 and older households).
• The homeownership rate increases from the age 65 to 74 cohort to the 75 and older cohort
in the Cologne, Victoria, and Waconia Submarkets.
Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75+
Carver Co.88%88%67%
Metro Area 81%82%69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2023 Older Adult and Senior Homeownership Rates
Carver County & Twin Cities Metro Area
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2023 Senior Household Homeownership Rates
Carver County by Submarket
65 to 74
75 and older
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• With a homeownership rate of 80% for all Carver County households age 65 and older,
many residents would be able to use proceeds from the sales of their homes toward senior
housing alternatives.
Home sale data is useful in that it represents the amount of equity seniors may be able to de-
rive from the sales of their homes that could be used to cover the cost of senior housing alter-
natives. The following information summarizes home resale data for homes that were built in
2008 or earlier in Carver County from 2018 through October 31, 2023. Sales of newer homes
are excluded because older adults and seniors often reside in older homes and are typically not
a target market for new single-family home construction, so we evaluate sales data for homes
that are at least 15 years old.
The data is useful in that it represents the amount of equity older adults and seniors may be
able to derive from the resales of their homes that could be used to cover the cost of senior
housing alternatives. The data was obtained from the Minneapolis Area Association of Real-
tors.
• Resale values of older homes experienced strong growth in Carver County in recent years,
climbing 39% from $285,000 in 2018 to $395,000 through the first ten months of 2023.
• Additionally, marketing times have decreased, declining -34% from an average of 35 days on
market in 2018 to 23 days on market in 2023, although marketing times have increased
modestly from 17 days on market in 2021 and 19 days on market in 2022.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ytd*
Median Sale Price $285,000 $305,000 $331,000 $375,000 $399,900 $395,000
Marketing Time 35 34 29 17 19 23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Avg. Days on MarketOlder Home Resale Trends
Carver County
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• Resale activity has slowed, as the number of closed transactions declined roughly -20% from
2018 (1,384 resales) to 2022 (1,111 sales). Resale volume has slowed due, in part, to a low
inventory of homes being listed for sale along with rising mortgage rates.
- The elevated mortgage rates have reduced the affordability of homes, causing many po-
tential buyers to defer a decision to purchase until rates decline.
• Based on the 2023 median resale price for older (built in 2008 or earlier) homes in the
County ($395,000), a senior household could generate an estimated $7,426 of additional
income annually (about $619 per month) if they invested in an income-producing account
(2.0% interest rate) after accounting for marketing costs and/or real estate commissions
(6.0% of home sale price).
• Due, in part, to strong demand for homes (as indicated by rising resale prices and shortened
marketing times) many older adults and seniors – particularly those in the market for inde-
pendent housing products – may be inclined to sell their home and consider housing alter-
natives.
- However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused some older adults and seniors to remain in
their homes rather than seeking housing alternatives.
• Should a senior utilize the home sale proceeds dollar for dollar to support living in senior
housing with services, the proceeds would last over 12 years in independent living housing
(monthly rent approximated at $2,500), roughly eight years in assisted living (monthly rent
approximated at $4,000), or approximately six years in memory care housing (monthly rent
approximated at $5,500).
- Seniors in service-intensive housing typically have lengths of stays between two and
three years indicating that a large portion of seniors in the County will be financially pre-
pared to privately pay for their housing and services.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Supply of Senior Housing
The tables and points on the following pages summarize information on the various senior
housing products in Carver County. Information in the tables include year built, number of
units, unit mix, unit sizes, vacancies, and monthly fees. The senior housing inventory is divided
into three groups, as follows:
- Market rate active adult properties (those without income restrictions along with the
Carver County CDA properties restricted to households at 100% AMI or lower )
- Affordable (income-restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower) and subsidized prop-
erties (restricted to households with incomes at 50% of AMI or lower)
- Service-enhanced facilities (independent living, assisted living, and memory care).
Senior Housing Location Map
MAP KEY
Market Rate Active Adult
Affordable/Subsidized Active Adult
Service-Enhanced
208
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• Maxfield Research identified 33 senior housing facilities in Carver County, containing a total
of 2,218 units. The following graph illustrates the size (number of units) of the County’s
senior housing market by submarket.
• The Chaska Submarket contains the largest share of the County’s senior housing market
with 737 units (33% of the County’s total inventory), followed by the Chanhassen Submar-
ket with 565 units (25%) and the Waconia Submarket (461 units, 21%).
• There are 184 senior housing units in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket (all
in Norwood Young America), representing 8% of the total inventory.
• The Watertown and Carver Submarkets contain 109 units (5%) and 70 units (3%), respec-
tively, and there are ten senior housing units in the Mayer-New Germany Submarket. We
did not identify any senior housing facilities in the Cologne Submarket.
• The County’s senior housing inventory includes two market rate active adult ownership pro-
jects, seven market rate active adult rental properties, ten affordable or subsidized active
adult properties, and 14 facilities offering service-enhanced senior housing.
- Among the service-enhanced facilities, six properties offer independent living, 13 pro-
vide assisted living, and 11 facilities provide memory care units.
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
MC 21 70 29 0 12 0 30 74 0
AL 24 98 120 0 61 0 0 132 55
IL 25 146 66 0 0 0 0 121 0
Aff AA 0 51 226 0 61 10 0 66 54
MR AA 0 200 296 0 50 0 52 68 0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Carver County Senior Housing Inventory by
Submarket and Product Type
209
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• As depicted in the following graph, 22% of the inventory is comprised of assisted living units
(490), while 21% of the units are market rate active adult (474) and another 21% are afford-
able or subsidized active adult units (468).
• Roughly 16% of the senior housing units are independent living (358), while memory care
represents 11% of the inventory (236 units). Market rate active adult ownership units rep-
resent 9% of the County’s senior housing inventory with 192 units.
• The senior housing inventory is factored into our demand calculations presented later in
this study. Many of these senior housing facilities will draw residents from areas outside of
their respective submarkets. As such, we adjust the number of competitive units for our de-
mand calculations based on location and format of each facility, ranging from a low of 30%
to 100%.
Market Rate Active Adult Summary
• Maxfield Research identified two active adult ownership developments totaling 192 units.
- Village Grace is a 40-unit age 55 and older condominium building in Chaska that opened
in 2003. There are currently no units for sale in the building, but assessed values range
from $181,400 to $238,200 ($181 to $202 per square foot).
- The Del Webb project in Chaska is a detached villa development restricted to house-
holds age 55 and older. As of December 2023, 152 units were built and occupied and
another 117 units/lots are vacant or undeveloped. Based on active listings, base pur-
chase prices range from $409,990 to $692,990 ($267 to $336 per square foot).
236
490
358
468
474
192
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Memory Care
Assisted Living
Independent Living
Aff/Sub Active Adult
MR Active Adult Rental
MR Active Adult Owner
Units
Carver County Senior Housing Inventory by Product Type
210
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Maxfield Research also surveyed seven market rate active adult rental housing properties, to-
taling 474 units. The following table and subsequent points summarize our findings. The per
square foot average rents presented in the table reflect a weighted average based on the num-
ber of units in each property, so properties with a larger number of units of any one type con-
tribute more toward the average than those with only a few units of a specific type.
TABLE 52
• The properties included in the surveyed set of market rate active adult rental properties
contain 474 units, including six stabilized properties totaling 415 units and one other prop-
erty with 59 units (Lake Place) that opened recently and is in initial lease-up.
• Two-bedroom units comprise 48% of the inventory, and another 31% are one -bedroom
units. One-bedroom plus den units represent 13% of the inventory and 5% of the units
have two bedrooms plus a den. Roughly 2% of the units are studios and 1% of the units
have three bedrooms.
• On average, units in these market rate active adult rental housing properties have 940
square feet, with studio units being the smallest (541 square feet, on average) and the
three-bedroom units being the largest at an average size of 1,440 square feet.
• Monthly rental rates range from a low of $814 for studio units at Crossings at Town Centre
in Waconia to a high of $2,993 for a two-bedroom plus den unit at AbleLight Village in Victo-
ria.
• Monthly rents average $886 for studio units, $1,317 for one-bedroom units, $1,325 for one-
bedroom plus den units, $2,001 for two-bedroom units, $2,261 for two-bedroom plus den
units, and $2,673 for the three-bedroom units.
Total % of Vacant %Avg. Avg. Avg. Rent/
Unit Type Units Total Units Vacant Size Low -High Rent Sq. Ft.
Studio 9 1.9%0 0.0%541 $814 -$1,265 $886 $1.63
1BR 147 31.0%3 2.1%757 $973 -$2,067 $1,317 $1.73
1BR+Den 63 13.3%0 0.0%949 $1,216 -$2,150 $1,325 $1.39
2BR 226 47.7%16 9.2%1,030 $1,310 -$2,767 $2,001 $1.94
2BR+Den 23 4.9%1 5.9%1,238 $1,649 -$2,993 $2,261 $1.85
3BR 6 1.3%0 0.0%1,440 $2,635 -$2,710 $2,673 $1.86
Total:474 100%20 4.8%940 $814 -$2,993 $1,699 $1.81
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Range
UNIT TYPE SUMMARY
SELECT MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT RENTAL PROPERTIES
December 2023
Monthly Rents
211
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• The weighted average monthly rent at these market rate active adult properties is $1,699
which equates to $1.81 per square foot.
• The three properties owned by the Carver County CDA, which are restricted to households
earning 100% AMI or lower, have an average monthly rent of $1,193 which is -41% lower,
on average, than the average rent ($2,017) at the properties not owned by the CDA.
• There are 20 vacant units in the competitive set of stabilized properties representing a 4.8%
vacancy rate, slightly below equilibrium (5.0% vacancy).
• As depicted in the following chart, vacancy rates range from full occupancy among the stu-
dio, one-bedroom plus den, and three-bedroom units to 9.2% in the two-bedroom units.
One-bedroom and two-bedroom plus den units are 2.1% vacant and 5.9% vacant, respec-
tively.
Affordable and Subsidized Active Adult Summary
The table on the following page summarizes key metrics for the affordable and subsidized ac-
tive adult rental properties in Carver County. Average monthly rents and per square foot aver-
age rents presented reflect a weighted average based on the number of units in each property.
• We identified ten affordable and subsidized active adult rental properties in the County, to-
taling 468 units, 23 of which are vacant representing a 4.9% vacancy rate.
Studio 1BR 1BR+D 2BR 2BR+D 3BR
Vacant 0 3 0 16 1 0
Occupied 9 143 63 158 16 6
Vacancy 0.0%2.1%0.0%9.2%5.9%0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Vacancy RateUnitsStabilized Market Rate Active Adult Rental Properties
Occupancy by Unit Type
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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- There is one affordable property, which opened in December 2022, with 51 units in-
come-restricted to households earning 60% AMI or lower. These units are fully occu-
pied.
- There are five Rural Development Section 515 properties, totaling 145 units, income-
restricted to households at 80% AMI or lower as well as moderate -income ($5,500 more
than 80% AMI) households age 62 and older or those with a disability. With 18 vacan-
cies, these facilities are 12.4% vacant. The vacancies are concentrated in the Hilltop
Apartments facility in Watertown (14 vacancies), but these units are being held vacant
intentionally as they get renovated.
- We also identified four subsidized project-based Section 8 facilities with 272 units, five
of which are vacant (1.8% vacancy rate). These facilities are restricted to age 62 and
older households, and those with disabilities, with incomes at 50% AMI or lower
TABLE 53
• One-bedroom units comprise 88% of the inventory and the remaining 12% are two-bed-
room units. On average, units in these properties have 643 square feet, with one-bedroom
units being 710 square feet, on average, and two-bedroom units averaging 886 square feet.
• Residents of project-based Section 8 facilities pay 30% of their adjusted income on rent, and
most tenants in Rural Development Section 515 housing pay either a basic market rent or
30% of their adjusted income, whichever is less.
• The weighted average monthly rent at these affordable and subsidized properties is $986,
which equates to $1.51 per square foot. One-bedroom unit rents average $967 per month
($1.55 per square foot), while two-bedroom units average $1,109 per month ($1.28 per
square foot.
• The following figure summarizes maximum household incomes by household size and AMI
for residents at these affordable and subsidized facilities. One-bedroom units target one- to
two-person households while two-bedroom units have a four-person maximum household
size.
Total % of Vacant %Avg. Avg. Avg. Rent/
Unit Type Units Total Units Vacant Size Low -High Rent Sq. Ft.
1BR 413 88%22 5.3%710 $520 -$978 $967 $1.55
2BR 55 12%1 1.8%886 $705 -$795 $1,109 $1.28
Total:468 100%23 4.9%643 $520 -$978 $986 $1.51
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Range
UNIT TYPE SUMMARY
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL PROPERTIES
December 2023
Monthly Rents
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Service-Enhanced Summary
The following table summarizes average unit sizes and pricing, including average monthly fees
and monthly fees on a per square foot basis, for the service-enhanced senior housing proper-
ties in Carver County. Average monthly rents and per square foot average rents presented re-
flect a straight average and are presented by service level.
• Overall, we identified 15 facilities in Carver County, totaling 1,084 service-enhanced senior
housing units.
TABLE 54
1 PERSON 2 PERSON 3 PERSON 4 PERSON
30% AMI $26,100 $29,820 $33,540 $37,260
40% AMI $34,800 $39,760 $44,720 $49,680
50% AMI $43,500 $49,700 $55,900 $62,100
60% AMI $52,200 $59,640 $67,080 $74,520
70% AMI $60,900 $69,580 $78,260 $86,940
80% AMI $69,600 $79,520 $89,440 $99,360
-----Income Limits by Household Size-----
Service Level Avg. Size Avg.Avg. Fee/
Unit Type (Sq. Ft.)Low -High Fee Sq. Ft.
Independent Living
Studio 493 $1,704 -$2,550 $2,150 $4.36
1BR 708 $1,395 -$3,950 $2,569 $3.63
1BR+Den 944 $2,730 -$4,050 $3,469 $3.68
2BR 1,139 $1,857 -$5,340 $3,760 $3.30
2BR+Den 1,370 $4,855 -$4,855 $4,855 $3.54
Summary 888 $1,395 -$5,340 $3,173 $3.57
Assisted Living
Studio 390 $1,575 -$4,800 $3,113 $7.98
1BR 643 $2,186 -$4,820 $3,706 $5.76
1BR+Den 823 $3,804 -$5,285 $4,496 $5.46
2BR 899 $2,566 -$5,850 $4,498 $5.00
2BR+Den 1,370 $6,310 -$6,310 $6,310 $4.61
Summary 668 $1,575 -$6,310 $3,868 $5.79
Memory Care
Studio/Room 395 $1,575 -$7,700 $4,191 $10.60
1BR 539 $4,655 -$5,280 $5,013 $9.30
2BR 738 $5,280 -$6,075 $5,678 $7.70
Summary 464 $1,575 -$7,700 $4,724 $10.17
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Monthly Fees
Range
PRICING SUMMARY BY UNIT TYPE AND SERVICE LEVEL
SERVICE-ENHANCED SENIOR HOUSING FACILITIES
December 2023
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• The competitive inventory includes six facilities with independent living units, totaling 358
units. There are 13 facilities providing assisted living, totaling 490 units, and 11 facilities of-
fering memory care (236 unit).
• Independent living units have an average size of 888 square feet, including averages of 493
square feet studio units, 708 square feet for one-bedroom units, 944 square feet for one-
bedroom plus den units, 1,139 square feet for two-bedroom units, and 1,370 square feet
for units with two bedrooms plus a den .
• The average monthly fee at the independent living facilities is $3,173 per month, which
equates to $3.57 per square foot (psf).
- Independent living fees vary greatly depending on services included and unit size, rang-
ing from a low of $1,395 for a one-bedroom unit at SummerWood in Chanhassen to a
high of $5,340 for a two-bedroom unit at SummerWood.
• Monthly independent living fees average $2,150 for studio units ($4.36 psf), $2,569 for one-
bedroom units ($3.63 psf), $3,469 for one-bedroom plus den units ($3.68 psf), $3,760 for
two-bedroom units ($3.30 psf), and $4,855 for two-bedroom plus den units ($3.54 psf).
• Assisted living units are generally smaller, with an average size of 668 square feet. Studio
units average of 390 square feet, while one-bedroom and one-bedroom plus den units aver-
age 643 square feet and 823 square feet, respectively. Two-bedroom assisted living units
average 899 square feet, and the two-bedroom plus den units are 1,370 square feet.
• The average assisted living fee is $3,868 per month ($5.79 psf), ranging from $1,575 for a
room at Nagel Assisted Living in Waconia to $6,310 for a two-bedroom plus den unit at Riley
Crossing in Chanhassen.
• Monthly assisted living fees average $3,113 for studio units ($7.98 psf), $3,706 for one-bed-
room units ($5.76 psf), $4,496 for one-bedroom plus den units ($5.46 psf), $4,498 for two-
bedroom units ($5.00 psf), and $6,310 for two-bedroom plus den units ($4.61 psf).
• Memory care units average 464 square feet, including averages of 395 square feet for stu-
dios and suites, 539 square feet for one-bedroom units, and 738 square feet for two-bed-
room units.
• Memory care units have an average fee of $4,724 per month ($10.17 psf), ranging from
$1,575 for a room at Nagel Memory Care in Waconia to $7,700 for a studio unit at Chaska
Heights in Chaska.
• Monthly memory care fees average $4,191 for studio units/suites ($10.60 psf), $5,013 for
one-bedroom units ($9.30 psf), and $5,678 for two-bedroom units ($7.70 psf).
215
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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• Base fees for independent living units generally includes utilities, scheduled transportation,
a meal plan (i.e. daily breakfast, noon meal) and limited housekeeping options. Additional
customized care and services are generally available for extra fees.
• Assisted living and memory care fees presented in the table generally include a base hous-
ing fee plus a minimum level of care fee which is required for assisted living and memory
care housing. Fees often include three meals per day, weekly housekeeping, and emer-
gency call systems. Most facilities offer multiple level of care options.
• Market equilibrium for senior housing ranges from 5.0% vacancy (active adult and inde-
pendent living) to 7.0% vacancy (assisted living and memory care), which allows for an ade-
quate supply of alternatives for prospective residents. There were 87 vacant units at the
time of our survey, representing a 7.9% vacancy rate.
- There were 19 independent living vacancies, representing a 5.2% vacancy rate, approxi-
mately at equilibrium.
- At 12.1% vacant (60 vacancies), the assisted living facilities are operating at vacancy
rates that are above equilibrium. Feedback from senior housing marketing directors in-
dicates that, while still slightly high, assisted living vacancies are gradually recovering
from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- There were eight vacant memory care units (3.4% vacancy rate), which is well-below
equilibrium.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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TABLE 55
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Village Grace 2003 40 0 1BR 18 0 900 -1,030 $181,400 -$201,400 $196 -$202
110696 Village Rd vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 22 0 1,020 -1,319 $188,100 -$238,200 $181 -$184
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Del Webb 2021 152 NA 1BR-3BR NA NA 1,222 -2,600 $409,990 -$692,990 $267 -$336
950 Goldfinch St
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Centennial Hill 1997 65 0 1BR 45 0 700 -750 $973 -$1,114 $1.39 -$1.49
820 Santa Vera Dr vacancy rate:0.0%1BR+D 17 0 965 -984 $1,337 -$1,337 $1.36 -$1.39
Chanhassen, MN 2BR 3 0 1,060 -1,060 $1,440 -$1,440 $1.36 -$1.36
Notes:
Oak Grove 2009 50 1 Studio 5 0 507 -518 $833 -$852 $1.64 -$1.64
114 Reform St vacancy rate:2.0%1BR 15 0 696 -705 $1,006 -$1,059 $1.45 -$1.50
Norwood Young Am., MN 1BR+D 21 0 919 -962 $1,243 -$1,350 $1.35 -$1.40
2BR 6 1 1,020 -1,020 $1,388 -$1,491 $1.36 -$1.46
2BR+D 3 0 1,443 -1,443 $1,663 -$1,663 $1.15 -$1.15
Notes:
Crossings at Town Centre 2003 68 0 Studio 3 0 553 -553 $814 -$851 $1.47 -$1.54
200 S Olive St vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 21 0 714 -714 $1,059 -$1,086 $1.48 -$1.52
Waconia, MN 1BR+D 22 0 922 -922 $1,216 -$1,244 $1.32 -$1.35
2BR 15 0 1,067 -1,072 $1,310 -$1,352 $1.23 -$1.26
2BR+D 7 0 1,086 -1,433 $1,649 -$1,676 $1.17 -$1.52
Notes:
Active Adult Ownership
Age 55+ condominium building. Values represent 2023 assessed market value. Building amenities
include screened porches, central AC, heated UG parking garage, community room, fitness room, patio.
Age 55+ detached single-family lots with 269 lots including 152 built and occupied and 117 vacant or
undeveloped. Amenities include outdoor swimming pool, pickleball courts, bocce ball courts, fire pit,
activity lawn, trails, and clubhouse with fitness center, locker room, lounge, craft rooms, meeting
rooms, event space.
Rent/Value
Size
Unit Description $ per sq. ft.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to age 55+ households at 100% AMI or lower. Units
feature dishwasher, central AC, full-size washer/dryer, deck. Heat included in rent. Amenities include
activity room, community room, exercise room, game room, guest suite, hair salon, UG parking
available. Includes 6 PBV units. Currently 179 names on waitlist.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to age 55+ households at 100% AMI or lower. Units
feature dishwasher, balcony, washer/dryer, individually controlled heat/AC. Amenities include
community room, exercise room, guest suite, library/ game room, storage lockers, UG parking
available, woodshop. Includes 4 PBV units. Currently 59 names on interest list for Oak Grove and
Crossings at Town Centre.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Income-restricted to age 55+ households at 100% AMI or lower. Units
feature dishwasher, washer/dryer, individually-controlled heat/AC, fireplaces (some units). Amenities
include activity room, beauty salon, car wash, card room, community room, game room, guest room,
library, storage lockers, woodshop, UG parking available. Includes 4 PBV units. Currently, 59 names
on interest list for Crossings at Town Centre and Oak Grove.
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Carver County CDA Market Rate Rental Properties
---------- continued ----------
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Powers Ridge 2017 76 3 1BR 22 0 709 -1,041 $1,661 -$2,067 $1.99 -$2.34
1351 Lake Dr W vacancy rate:3.9%1BR+D 3 0 1,065 -1,065 $2,150 -$2,150 $2.02 -$2.02
Chanhassen, MN 2BR 45 3 1,066 -1,175 $2,210 -$2,410 $2.05 -$2.07
3BR 6 0 1,426 -1,453 $2,635 -$2,710 $1.85 -$1.87
Notes:
Lake Place 2022 59 16 1BR 1 1 776 -776 $1,515 -$1,515 $1.95 -$1.95
1361 Lake Dr W vacancy rate:27.1%2BR 52 12 903 -1,098 $1,810 -$2,325 $2.00 -$2.12
Chanhassen, MN 2BR+D 6 3 1,021 -1,253 $2,080 -$2,725 $2.04 -$2.17
Notes:
Zen Chaska 2001 104 7 Studio 1 0 650 -650 $1,265 -$1,265 $1.95 -$1.95
110 E 1st ST vacancy rate:6.7%1BR 32 2 765 -797 $1,350 -$1,410 $1.76 -$1.77
Chaska, MN 2BR 71 5 881 -1,062 $1,545 -$1,765 $1.66 -$1.75
Notes:
AbleLight Village 2020 52 9 1BR 11 1 734 -734 $1,991 -$1,991 $2.71 -$2.71
1519 82nd St vacancy rate:17.3%2BR 34 7 1,017 -1,100 $2,552 -$2,767 $2.51 -$2.52
Victoria, MN 2BR+D 7 1 1,216 -1,216 $2,993 -$2,993 $2.46 -$2.46
Notes:
Stabilized Rental Subtotal:415 20
vacancy rate:4.8%
Rental Property Total:474
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Age 55+ building open Dec. 2022 in initial lease-up. Contact would not disclose vacancies; vacancy
information from secondary source. Also includes 54 affordable units. Amenities include sky lounge,
media center, coffee bar, patio, fitness center, library, pickleball, gardening area, art room, workshop,
pet-friendly, UG parking ($80 standard, $125 EV). Unit feature walk-in showers, washer/dryer, 9'
ceilings, SS appliances, solid-surface countertops. Rent includes water, sewer, trash removal.
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Rent/Value $ per sq. ft.
Size
Age 55+ building. Units feature AC, full kitchen appliance package, individual climate control,
washer/dryer. Amenities include clubhouse, pet-friendly, package receiving, sky room, library, fitness
center, sundeck, garage parking available. Currently offering 1 month free rent .
Active Adult Market Rate Rental
Age 55+ building. All utilities and UG parking included in rent. Units feature granite countertops, full
kitchen appliance package, extra storage, patio/balcony, washer/dryer. Amenities include business
center, clubhouse, fitness center, indoor pool, playground area, community deck with grill, salon, TV
lounge, UG parking.
TABLE continued
Age 55+. Units feature central AC, SS appliances, granite countertops, washer/dryer, patio/balcony,
high ceilings, handrails. Amenities include fitness room, community room, activities/classes, package
hub, courtyard. Up to 20% of units for people with a developmental disability.
218
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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The following are photographs of select market rate active adult properties in Carver County:
Del Webb – Chaska
Centennial Hill – Chanhassen
Oak Grove – Norwood Young America Crossings at Town Centre – Waconia
Powers Ridge – Chanhassen Zen – Chaska
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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TABLE 56
Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
Lake Place 2022 51 0 1BR 32 0 680 -802 $1,320 -$1,320 $1.65 -$1.94
1361 Lake Dr W vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 19 0 763 -903 $1,584 -$1,584 $1.75 -$2.08
Chanhassen, MN
Notes:
Mayer Elderly 1988 10 2 1BR 10 2 650 -700 $520 -$978 $0.80 -$1.40
419 Bluejay Ave vacancy rate:20.0%
Mayer, MN
Notes:
Peace Villa 1978 61 0 1BR 33 0 621 -672 $570 -$700 $0.92 -$1.04
308 Faxon Rd vacancy rate:0.0%2BR 28 0 932 -932 $705 -$795 $0.76 -$0.85
Norwood Young Am., MN
Notes:
Maple Crest Commons 1983 20 0 1BR 20 0 625 -625 $767 -$767 $1.23 -$1.23
300 W 1st St vacancy rate:0.0%
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Riverside 1981 22 2 1BR 22 2 630 -630 $805 -$805 $1.28 -$1.28
210 Territorial St E vacancy rate:9.1%
Watertown, MN
Notes:
Hilltop Apts I & II 1981 32 14 1BR 30 14 620 -620 $520 -$678 $0.84 -$1.09
309 Carter St NE vacancy rate:43.8%2BR 2 0 900 -900 $536 -$715 $0.60 -$0.79
Watertown, MN
Notes:
Size
Owned by Carver County CDA. Age 62+ or disabled residents (roughly 60% of residents
disabled/40% age 62+). Rents typically based on 30% of adjusted gross income. Amenities include
wall-unit AC and off-street parking. Units held vacant intentionally as they get rehab'd.
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Monthly RentUnit Description Rent/sq. ft.
---------- continued ----------
Rural Development Section 515 Properties
Affordable Active Adult Properties
Restricted to residents age 62+ or with a disability. Water, sewer, trash removal, heat, and hot
water included in rent. Amenities include on-site laundry, off-street parking, pet-friendly. Rent
based on 30% of income with rental assistance. Basic rent as of 1/1/24.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Age 62+ or disabled residents (roughly 55% of residents
disabled/45% age 62+). Rents typically based on 30% of adjusted gross income. Amenities include
wall-unit AC and off-street parking. Units held vacant intentionally as they get rehab'd.
Complex has 8 family designated units (Hillside bldg) and 22 units designated for residents age 62+
(Riverside bldg). Heat, water, sewer, trash removal included in rent. Amenities include community
room, pet-friendly, on-site laundry, patio. Quoted rent ($805) effective 1/1/24. Vacant units
undergoing remodel. Extensive waitlist (applicants waiting over a year).
Contact would not disclose vacancies; vacancy data from secondary source. Age 55+ building also
includes 59 market rate units. Affordable at 60% AMI. Amenities include sky lounge, media center,
coffee bar, patio, fitness center, fireplace room, library, pickleball, firepit, gardening area, art room,
workshop, pet-friendly, UG parking ($80 standard, $125 EV). Unit feature walk-in showers,
washer/dryer, 9' ceilings, SS appliances, solid-surface countertops. Rent includes water, sewer, trash
removal.
Restricted to residents age 62+ or with a disability; part of Peace Village Senior Living campus.
Rents based on household income. Currently, 20 names on waitlist.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Occp.No. of Total
Project Name/Location Date Units Vacant Type No.Vac.Min Max Min Max
The Landing Apts.2014 54 0 1BR 54 0 540 -540 $714 -$714 $1.32 -$1.32
105 E 1st St vacancy rate:0.0%
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Talheim 1983 58 0 1BR 58 0 530 -530 30% of AGI NA
407 N Oak St vacancy rate:0.0%
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Waybury 1979 114 3 1BR 109 3 600 -640 $1,295 -$1,325 $2.07 -$2.16
110340 Geske Rd vacancy rate:2.6%2BR 5 0 840 -840 $1,510 -$1,510 $1.80 -$1.80
Chaska, MN
Notes:
Evergreen Apts.1979 46 2 1BR 45 1 618 -618 $894 -$894 $1.45 -$1.45
100 W 3rd St vacancy rate:4.3%2BR 1 1 800 -800 $1,094 -$1,094 $1.37 -$1.37
Waconia, MN
Notes:
Total:468 23
vacancy rate:4.9%
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
Restricted to residents age 62+ or with a disability. Connected to Auburn Senior Campus. Rent
includes heat, water, trash removal, recycling, basic cable, emergency call system. Amenities include
exercise room, on-site laundry, lounge and balcony on each floor, off-street parking, car plug-ins,
on-site barber/beauty salon.
Owned by Carver County CDA. Restricted to residents age 62+ or with a disability. Heat included in
rent. Units feature AC and patio/balcony. Amenities include picnic area, clubhouse, garage and off-
street parking, on-site laundry, media room, package receiving, library. Project-based Section 8.
Rent based on 30% AGI. Currently 251 applicants on waitlist for 1BR units and 40 applicants for
2BR units.
Restricted to residents age 62+ or with a disability. Unit rents based on 30% of income. Amenities
include off-street parking, wall AC.
Project-Based Section 8 Properties
Rents not to exceed 30% of monthly income. Restricted to households at 50% AMI or lower.
Amenities include community room (game tables, kitchenette), garden plots, outdoor patio,
computer lab, lobby with fireplace, on-site laundry. Heat and AC included in rent.
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Size
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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The following are photographs of select affordable and subsidized active adult properties in
Carver County:
Lake Place (market rate and affordable) –
Chanhassen
Mayer Elderly – Mayer
Peace Villa – Norwood Young America Riverside – Watertown
The Landing – Chaska Evergreen Apartments – Waconia
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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TABLE 57
Project Name/Location Occp.No. of Total
Service Level Date Units Vacant Type No.Min Max Min Max
Carver Ridge 2020 49 1 1BR 39 597 -843 $3,450 -$3,950 $4.69 -$5.78
920 6th St W vacancy rate:2.0%1BR+D 1 863 -863 $4,050 -$4,050 $4.69 -$4.69
Independent Living 2BR 9 750 -1,129 $4,000 -$4,450 $3.94 -$5.33
Assisted Living 1BR 597 -843 $3,950 -$4,450 $5.28 -$6.62
1BR+D 863 -863 $4,550 -$4,550 $5.27 -$5.27
2BR 750 -1,129 $4,500 -$4,950 $4.38 -$6.00
Carver Ridge 2020 21 0 Studio 21 597 -597 $5,100 -$5,600 $8.54 -$9.38
920 6th St W vacancy rate:0.0%
Memory Care
SummerWood 2003 90 6 1BR 44 705 -758 $1,395 -$2,035 $1.98 -$2.68
525 Lake Dr vacancy rate:6.7%1BR+D 13 1,000 -1,100 $2,730 -$3,005 $2.73 -$2.73
Independent Living 2BR 33 1,240 -2,009 $3,355 -$5,340 $2.66 -$2.71
SummerWood 2003 53 16 Studio 2 265 -265 $3,545 -$3,545 $13.38 -$13.38
525 Lake Dr vacancy rate:30.2%1BR 41 555 -690 $4,085 -$4,670 $6.77 -$7.36
Assisted Living 2BR 10 950 -950 $5,325 -$5,325 $5.61 -$5.61
SummerWood 2003 18 0 Studio 4 265 -265 $4,075 -$4,075 $15.38 -$15.38
525 Lake Dr vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 13 525 -580 $4,655 -$4,835 $8.34 -$8.87
Memory Care 2BR 1 950 -950 $6,075 -$6,075 $6.39 -$6.39
Riley Crossing 2020 56 0 Studio 3 504 -571 $2,165 -$2,225 $3.90 -$4.30
620 Aldrich Dr vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 23 658 -803 $2,735 -$3,365 $4.16 -$4.19
Independent Living 1BR+D 11 832 -1,088 $3,525 -$3,830 $3.52 -$4.24
2BR 17 903 -1,109 $3,930 -$4,395 $3.96 -$4.35
2BR+D 2 1,370 -1,370 $4,855 -$4,855 $3.54 -$3.54
Riley Crossing*2020 45 0 Studio 2 504 -571 $3,620 -$3,680 $6.44 -$7.18
620 Aldrich Dr vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 20 658 -803 $4,190 -$4,820 $6.00 -$6.37
Assisted Living 1BR+D 8 832 -1,088 $4,980 -$5,285 $4.86 -$5.99
2BR 13 903 -1,109 $5,385 -$5,850 $5.28 -$5.96
2BR+D 2 1,370 -1,370 $6,310 -$6,310 $4.61 -$4.61
Riley Crossing*2020 28 0 Studio 28 399 -560 $6,140 -$6,640 $11.86 -$15.39
620 Aldrich Dr vacancy rate:0.0%
Memory Care
Elysian Senior Homes 2015 24 0 Studio 20 278 -312 $4,150 -$4,150 $13.30 -$14.93
1850 Pioneer Trail vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 2 525 -525 $5,280 -$5,280 $10.06 -$10.06
Memory Care 2BR 2 525 -525 $5,280 -$5,280 $10.06 -$10.06
Chaska Heights 2016 66 9 Studio 1 560 -560 $2,550 -$2,550 $4.55 -$4.55
3120 N Chestnut St vacancy rate:13.6%1BR 34 709 -889 $2,650 -$3,000 $3.37 -$3.74
Independent Living 1BR+D 6 1,128 -1,273 $3,100 -$3,400 $2.67 -$2.75
2BR 25 1,419 -1,419 $3,500 -$3,700 $2.47 -$2.61
Chaska Heights*2016 58 2 Studio 9 574 -615 $4,250 -$4,250 $6.91 -$7.40
3120 N Chestnut St vacancy rate:3.4%1BR 42 709 -779 $4,400 -$4,700 $6.03 -$6.21
Assisted Living 2BR 7 1,007 -1,141 $4,650 -$5,400 $4.62 -$4.73
Chaska Heights*2016 14 2 Studio 14 390 -393 $7,450 -$7,700 $19.10 -$19.59
3120 N Chestnut St vacancy rate:14.3%
Memory Care
---------- continued ----------
Chaska
SERVICE-ENHANCED SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Chanhassen
Monthly Rent
Size
Unit Description Rent/sq. ft.
Carver
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Project Name/Location Occp.No. of Total
Service Level Date Units Vacant Type No.Min Max Min Max
Auburn Courts 1997 40 3 Studio 26 383 -412 $2,255 -$2,665 $5.89 -$6.47
501 N Oak St vacancy rate:7.5%1BR 11 516 -550 $3,390 -$3,390 $6.16 -$6.57
Assisted Living 2BR 3 770 -770 $4,065 -$4,065 $5.28 -$5.28
Courtyard at Auburn 1997 15 0 Double 2 383 -412 $3,550 -$3,550 $8.62 -$9.27
501 N Oak St vacancy rate:0.0%Studio 13 383 -412 $4,610 -$4,610 $11.19 -$12.04
Memory Care
Hidden Creek 1999 22 4 Studio 22 150 -150 Not Provided NA
112001 Hidden Creek Pl vacancy rate:18.2%
Assisted Living
Peace Village - Harbor 2006 36 5 Studio 15 509 -539 $2,765 -$2,895 $5.37 -$5.43
300 N Faxon Rd vacancy rate:13.9%1BR 21 609 -609 $3,480 -$3,480 $5.71 -$5.71
Assisted Living
Peace Village - Haven 2016 25 4 Studio 12 324 -557 $2,230 -$3,215 $5.77 -$6.88
600 Railroad Dr vacancy rate:16.0%1BR 13 610 -744 $3,435 -$3,930 $5.28 -$5.63
Assisted Living
Peace Village - Haven 2016 12 0 Studio 12 326 -363 $2,735 -$2,845 $7.84 -$8.39
600 Railroad Dr vacancy rate:0.0%
Memory Care
Emerald Crest 2005 30
8150 Bavaria Rd Facility closing March 10, 2024
Memory Care
Auburn Meadows 2012 44 2 Studio 29 356 -442 $2,970 -$3,200 $7.24 -$8.34
591 Cherry Dr vacancy rate:4.5%1BR 12 505 -546 $3,545 -$3,545 $6.49 -$7.02
Assisted Living 2BR 3 505 -712 $3,990 -$3,990 $5.60 -$7.90
Auburn Reflections 2012 17 0 Studio 17 356 -442 $4,580 -$4,630 $10.48 -$12.87
591 Cherry Dr vacancy rate:0.0%
Memory Care
New Perspective '05/'12 76 0 Studio 14 330 -434 $1,704 -$1,704 $3.93 -$5.16
500 Cherry St vacancy rate:0.0%1BR 48 515 -778 $2,510 -$2,510 $3.23 -$4.87
Independent Living 1BR+D 2 646 -646 $3,500 -$3,500 $5.42 -$5.42
2BR 12 759 -878 $4,183 -$4,183 $4.76 -$5.51
Assisted Living*Studio 330 -434 $2,008 -$2,008 $4.63 -$6.08
1BR 515 -778 $2,814 -$2,814 $3.62 -$5.46
1BR+D 646 -646 $3,804 -$3,804 $5.89 -$5.89
2BR 759 -878 $4,487 -$4,487 $5.11 -$5.91
New Perspective*'05/'12 40 4 Studio 40 330 -434 $4,616 -$4,616 $10.64 -$13.99
500 Cherry St vacancy rate:10.0%
Memory Care
Size
Chaska continued
---------- continued ----------
TABLE continued
SERVICE-ENHANCED SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Waconia
Norwood Young America
Victoria
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Project Name/Location Occp.No. of Total
Service Level Date Units Vacant Type No.Min Max Min Max
Westview Acres 1985 110 4 1BR 66 500 -741 $1,477 -$1,755 $2.37 -$2.95
433 W 5th St vacancy rate:3.6%2BR 44 844 -1,208 $1,857 -$2,226 $1.84 -$2.20
Independent Living
Assisted Living*1BR 500 -741 $2,186 -$2,464 $3.33 -$4.37
2BR 844 -1,208 $2,566 -$2,935 $2.43 -$3.04
Nagel AL 2017 34 8 Room 34 NA -NA $1,575 -$1,975 NA -NA
232 S Elm St vacancy rate:23.5%
Assisted Living
Nagel MC 2017 18 2 Room 18 NA -NA $1,575 -$1,975 NA -NA
232 S Elm St vacancy rate:11.1%
Memory Care
Westwood Place 1989 55 15 Studio 55 196 -225 $4,800 -$4,800 $21.33 -$24.49
209 Jefferson Ave SW vacancy rate:27.3%
Assisted Living
Independent Living:363 19
vacancy rate:5.2%
Assisted Living:497 60
vacancy rate:12.1%
Memory Care:237 8
vacancy rate:3.4%
Service-Enhanced Total:1,096 87
vacancy rate:7.9%
*AL and MC includes base monthly fee plus minimum required level of care fee
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
Watertown
SERVICE-ENHANCED SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Unit Description Monthly Rent Rent/sq. ft.
Size
Waconia continued
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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The following are photographs of select service-enhanced senior housing properties in Carver
County:
Carver Ridge Senior Living – Carver
Summerwood – Chanhassen
Chaska Heights Senior Living – Chaska Peace Village – Norwood Young America
New Perspective – Waconia Westwood Place – Watertown
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
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Pending Senior Housing Developments
Maxfield Research compiled information provided by municipal staff from the communities lo-
cated in Carver County to identify any senior housing developments that are proposed,
planned, or under construction that may impact future demand for senior housing in the
County. The following points summarize our findings.
In total, we identified five pending senior housing developments in the County, totaling 807
units. These projects include a 269-unit active adult detached villa ownership project which is
under construction and a 48-unit memory care project which has been approved. Three other
projects are preliminary, including a 43-unit income-restricted active adult rental housing devel-
opment and a 147-unit market rate active adult rental project. Another 300 units are being
considered in the County, but service levels are not known at this time.
• The Carver County CDA is considering a 43-unit income-restricted active adult rental hous-
ing development adjacent to their planned 60-unit general occupancy project at 1591 Hart-
well Drive in Carver. The active adult units are conceptual, and no formal plans are under
review.
• Moments of Chanhassen is a 48-unit memory care senior housing development that has
been approved on a Site near West 78th Street and Lake Ann Park in Chanhassen.
• Level 7 Development has preliminary approvals for 300 units of senior housing as part of
the Avienda development near the intersection of Lyman Boulevard and Powers Boulevard
in Chanhassen. The senior housing component of this project could include active adult
owned and/or rented housing as well as service-enhanced housing, but the exact service
level mix is not known at this time.
• Pulte Homes is developing Del Webb at Chaska near the Highway 41 intersection with Victo-
ria Drive in Chaska. This is a 269-unit detached villa active adult ownership project targeted
to residents age 55 and older. As of December 2023, 152 units are occupied and 117 re-
main vacant or undeveloped.
• United Properties has preliminary concept approvals for a 147-unit market rate apartment
development restricted to residents age 55 and older, but final approval has not yet been
issued. The project, referred to as “Amira”, will be located at 2285 Arboretum Boulevard in
Victoria if approved.
227
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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Housing Affordability
Introduction
Affordable housing is a term that has various definitions according to different people and is a
product of supply and demand. According to the United States Department of Housing and Ur-
ban Development (HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than
30% of its annual income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of
their income for housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have
difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care.
The following topics are covered in this analysis.
Housing Choice Voucher program
Household income and rent limits for affordable housing
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing (NOAH) units
Housing cost burdened households in the County, and
Housing costs in Carver County in relation to household income
Minnesota Housing, HUD, and the United States Census Bureau American Community Survey
(ACS) are the primary data resources for the Housing Affordability section of this report. Addi-
tionally, Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC utilizes findings from the For-Sale Housing Mar-
ket Analysis and Rental Market Analysis sections of this study to evaluate housing cost afforda-
bility in the County.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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Generally, housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 80% of Area Me-
dian Income (AMI) is considered affordable. However, individual properties may have income
restrictions set anywhere from 30% to 80% of AMI. Rent is not based on income but instead is
a contract amount that is affordable to households within the specific income restriction seg-
ment. Moderate-income housing, often referred to as “workforce housing,” refers to both
rental and ownership housing. The definition is broadly defined as housing that is income-re-
stricted to households earning between 50% and 120% AMI. The following figure summarizes
generally recognized AMI Definitions:
Housing Choice Vouchers
In addition to subsidized apartments, “tenant-based” subsidies such as Housing Choice Vouch-
ers, assist low income households to secure housing through the private market. The tenant-
based subsidy is funded by HUD. In Carver County, application for Housing Choice Vouchers is
made through the Twin Cities Metro HRA.
Under the Housing Choice Voucher program, also referred to as Section 8, qualified households
are issued a voucher that the household can take to an apartment that has rent levels at or less
than the payment standards by bedroom type for their area. The household then pays approxi-
mately 30% of their Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) for rent and utilities, and the Federal Govern-
ment pays the remainder of the rent to the landlord. The maximum income limit to be eligible
for a Housing Choice Voucher is 50% of Area Median Income (AMI) based on household size.
The following are key points about the Housing Choice Voucher Program, currently adminis-
tered by administered by the HRA.
• The Metro HRA manages a total of 7,200 vouchers. These vouchers cover all of Carver and
Anoka Counties and suburban Hennepin and Ramsey Counties. The Cities of Minneapolis
and St. Paul have their own allocations of HCVs and are not included in the above total.
• All vouchers are currently in use and there is a waiting list estimated at 1,940.
• This is the lowest number in use and reflects rising rental rates and budget constraints,
which have not kept pace with rising housing costs.
Definition AMI Range
Extremely Low Income 0% to 30%
Very Low Income 31% to 50%
Low Income 51% to 80%
Moderate Income (Workforce Housing)50% to 120%
Carver County 4-person AMI = $124,900 (2023)
AREA MEDIAN INCOME (AMI) DEFINITIONS
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• The Federal Government has not been increasing budget allocations for the Housing Choice
Voucher program to accommodate these increases. As a result, agencies that manage
Housing Choice Vouchers are serving fewer households than their total allocations would
allow. This situation is expected to continue, increasing the number of low -income house-
holds that need assistance, but are unable to obtain it. This situation also further exacer-
bates the number of households that are precariously housed and at risk of becoming
homeless due to housing costs that exceed their ability to pay.
• The wait list was last opened for five days in June 2022 and 11,000 applications were re-
ceived. From those, 2,000 applications were randomly selected to be placed on the Metro
HRA’s wait list, which is currently closed. The estimated wait time for assistance is one to
five years, once being placed on the wait list.
• The following summarizes households on the Voucher Wait List by bedroom size:
Bedroom Size No. of HHs
1 1,032
2 630
3 221
4 48
5 9
Total 1,940
Following is information regarding the number of vouchers that were returned unused that
were issued over the past 12 to 24 months, along with the primary reason (if known):
Reason Returned No Pct
Absorbed (moved out of service area) 242 30%
Voucher Expired 116 14%
Voluntary Drop (tenant gave up voucher) 169 21%
Violation of Family Obligations (tenant did not follow program rules) 118 14%
Deceased 89 11%
Over Income 68 8%
Evicted 9 1%
No Reason Listed 5 1%
• There are currently 311 voucher holders living in Carver County and 35 County residents
with vouchers seeking residence. Thirty-two vouchers are ported out of the County and 15
are ported into the County. There are 35 participants currently living in Carver County.
- Portability refers to a process that allows a household to transfer or “port” their rental
subsidy if they move to a location outside of the HRA jurisdiction. The HRA that ab-
sorbed the household administers the voucher but does not pay for the costs of vouch-
ers ported into the jurisdiction.
230
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• The voucher program uses a payment standard which matches the cost of housing and utili-
ties and households may use the housing voucher for units with rent that is below or above
the payment standard. Metro HRA has payment standards that are set up by Metro Area
Zip Code depending on where the geographic location.
TABLE 58
• Housing Choice Vouchers can be used for several types of residences to include apartment
rentals, single family housing rentals, duplexes, townhouses, and homeownership.
• The overall number of active landlords has decreased. However, it is hard to know if some
larger landlords just own more units or if the actual number of landlords willing to accept
vouchers has decreased.
• The most significant issues that are being faced with the need for and the use of Section 8
vouchers are low vacancy rates and rising rents. Rising rents reduce the overall budget allo-
cation for the vouchers so fewer households can be served at the same a llocation level.
Low vacancy rates reduce incentives from landlords to accept HCVs.
Rent and Income Limits
The following table displays the maximum allowable incomes by household size to qualify for
affordable housing and maximum gross rents that can be charged by bedroom size in Carver
County. These incomes are published and revised annually by HUD and also published sepa-
rately by Minnesota Housing based on the date a project is placed into service. Fair Market
Rent reflects the amount needed to pay gross monthly rent at modest rental housing in a given
area.
Zip Code Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR 6BR
55315 $1,156 $1,313 $1,597 $2,166 $2,440 $2,806 $3,172
55318 $1,166 $1,323 $1,617 $2,185 $2,470 $2,840 $3,210
55322 $1,190 $1,350 $1,650 $2,230 $2,520 $2,898 $3,276
55331 $1,199 $1,364 $1,661 $2,244 $2,541 $2,922 $3,303
55360 $1,210 $1,370 $1,670 $2,250 $2,550 $2,933 $3,315
55367 $910 $1,040 $1,270 $1,730 $1,990 $2,289 $2,587
55368 $892 $1,019 $1,245 $1,695 $1,950 $2,243 $2,535
55386 $1,600 $1,810 $2,210 $2,980 $3,380 $3,887 $4,394
55387 $1,068 $1,215 $1,480 $1,999 $2,264 $2,603 $2,943
55388 $910 $1,040 $1,270 $1,730 $1,990 $2,289 $2,587
55397 $921 $1,039 $1,274 $1,715 $1,950 $2,243 $2,535
Source: Metro HRA
RENT PAYMENT STANDARDS
METRO HRA - CARVER COUNTY ZIP CODES
Effective 04/01/2024
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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TABLE 59
The following table summarizes maximum rents by household size and AMI based on income
limits illustrated in the preceding table. The rents in the following table are based on HUD’s al-
location that monthly rents should not exceed 30% of income. In addition, the table reflects
maximum household size based on HUD guidelines of number of persons per unit. For each ad-
ditional bedroom, the maximum household size increases by two persons.
TABLE 60
1 PERSON 2 PERSON 3 PERSON 4 PERSON 5 PERSON 6 PERSON 7 PERSON 8 PERSON
30% AMI $26,100 $29,820 $33,540 $37,260 $40,260 $43,230 $46,230 $49,200
40% AMI $34,800 $39,760 $44,720 $49,680 $53,680 $57,640 $61,640 $65,600
50% AMI $43,500 $49,700 $55,900 $62,100 $67,100 $72,050 $77,050 $82,000
60% AMI $52,200 $59,640 $67,080 $74,520 $80,520 $86,460 $92,460 $98,400
80% AMI $69,600 $79,520 $89,440 $99,360 $107,360 $115,280 $123,280 $131,200
100% AMI $87,000 $99,400 $111,800 $124,200 $134,200 $144,100 $154,100 $164,000
120% AMI $104,400 $119,280 $134,160 $149,040 $161,040 $172,920 $184,920 $196,800
0-BR 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4-BR
30% AMI $652 $699 $838 $969 $1,080
40% AMI $870 $932 $1,118 $1,292 $1,441
50% AMI $1,087 $1,165 $1,397 $1,615 $1,801
60% AMI $1,305 $1,398 $1,677 $1,938 $2,161
80% AMI $1,740 $1,864 $2,236 $2,584 $2,882
100% AMI $2,175 $2,485 $2,795 $3,105 $3,355
120% AMI $2,610 $2,982 $3,354 $3,726 $4,026
Fair Market Rent $1,007 $1,149 $1,410 $1,916 $2,209
Sources: Minnesota Housing; HUD; Novogradac; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Effective Date: 05/15/2023
CARVER COUNTY
2023 INCOME LIMITS
-----Income Limits by Household Size-----
-----Maximum Gross Rents by Bedroom Size-----
Unit
Type Min -Max Min -Max Min -Max Min -Max Min -Max Min -Max
Studio 1 -1 $653 -$653 $1,088 -$1,088 $1,305 -$1,305 $1,740 -$1,740 $2,610 -$2,610
1BR 1 -2 $653 -$746 $1,088 -$1,243 $1,305 -$1,491 $1,740 -$1,988 $2,610 -$2,982
2BR 2 -4 $746 -$932 $1,243 -$1,553 $1,491 -$1,863 $1,988 -$2,484 $2,982 -$3,726
3BR 3 -6 $839 -$1,081 $1,398 -$1,801 $1,677 -$2,162 $2,236 -$2,882 $3,354 -$4,323
4BR 4 -8 $932 -$1,230 $1,553 -$2,050 $1,863 -$2,460 $2,484 -$3,280 $3,726 -$4,920
Sources: MN Housing; HUD; Novogradac; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXIMUM RENT BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND AREA MEDIAN INCOME
CARVER COUNTY - 2023
----- Maximum Rent Based on Household Size (@ 30% of Income) -----
HHD Size 30% AMI 50% AMI 60% AMI 120% AMI80% AMI
232
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing (NOAH)
Although affordable housing is typically associated with an income-restricted property, there
are other housing units in communities that indirectly provide affordable housing. Housing
units that were not developed or designated with income restrictions yet are mo re affordable
than other units in a community are considered “naturally occurring affordable housing”
(NOAH) units.
The NOAH housing supply is available through the private market, versus assisted housing pro-
grams through various governmental agencies. Property values on these units are lower based
on a combination of factors, such as: age of structure, location, condi tion, size, functionally ob-
solete, etc. Because of these factors, housing costs tend to be lower. According to the Joint
Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, the privately unsubsidized housing stock sup-
plies three times as many low-cost affordable units than assisted projects nationwide.
Unlike assisted rental developments, most unsubsidized affordable units are scattered across
small properties or in older multifamily structures. These older developments are often vulner-
able to redevelopment due to their age, modest rents, and deferred maintenance. Because
many of these housing units have affordable rents, project-based and private housing markets
cannot be easily separated. Some households (typically those with household incomes of 50%
to 60% AMI) income-qualify for both market rate and project-based affordable housing.
The following chart illustrates the number and percent of general occupancy market rate rental
housing units that would be considered NOAH units compared to units that have rents that are
above the NOAH threshold. Maximum gross rents at 60% AMI are used as the NOAH threshold.
Rents are based on the average rent by unit type for the market rate properties surveyed for
the Rental Housing Analysis section of this study.
Studio 1BR 1BR+D 2BR 3BR
Above NOAH 45 458 42 556 90
NOAH 33 286 54 598 104
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
General Occupancy Market Rate Rental Units
NOAH (60% AMI or Lower)
233
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 224
• Based on the average rents by unit type in each of the surveyed properties, roughly 49% of
all general occupancy market rate rental housing units have rents that fall below the NOAH
threshold (ranges from $1,305 for studio units to $1,938 for three-bedroom units).
• An estimated 57% of the three-bedroom units, 56% of the one-bedroom plus den units, and
53% of the two-bedroom units have quoted rents that are below the NOAH threshold. Ad-
ditionally, 42% of studio units and 40% of one-bedroom units are estimated to be NOAH
units.
Housing Cost Burden
The table on the following pages shows the number and percentage of owner and renter
households that pay 30% or more of their gross income for housing in Carver County and each
of its submarkets compared to the Twin Cities Metro Area. This information was compiled from
the American Community Survey 2021 five-year estimates.
The Federal standard for affordability is 30% of income for housing costs. Moderately cost-bur-
dened is defined as households paying between 30% and 50% of their income to housing; while
severely cost-burdened is defined as households paying more than 50% of their inc ome for
housing. Higher-income households that are cost-burdened may have the option of moving to
lower priced housing, but lower-income households often do not. The figures focus on owner
households with incomes below $50,000 and renter households with incomes below $35,000.
• In total, an estimated 8,258 households in Carver County are considered cost-burdened,
representing 21.6% of all households, lower than 26.3% of households in the Twin Cities
Metro Area.
• An estimated 17.6% of owner households (5,565 households) are estimated to be paying
more than 30% of their income for housing costs in Carver County, slightly lower than 18.0%
in the Metro Area.
• Roughly 40.7% of all renter households (2,693) in Carver County pay more than 30% of their
income on housing compared to 44.9% in the Metro Area.
• The number of cost burdened households increases proportionally based on lower incomes.
An estimated 83% of renters with incomes below $35,000 are cost burdened and 60% of
owners with incomes below $50,000 are cost burdened in Carver County.
• Roughly 7.5% of all households in Carver County (2,851 households) are severely cost-bur-
dened (paying 50% or more of their income toward housing costs), lower than 11.0% in the
Twin Cities Metro Area.
234
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• In Carver County, an estimated 5.5% of owner households and 16.8% of renter households
are severely cost-burdened, compared to 6.5% of owner households and 21.2% of renter
households in the Metro Area.
TABLE 61
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner HHs 2,301 8,262 7,288 1,133
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 423 18.4%1,708 20.7%1,176 16.1%145 12.8%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%139 6.0%467 5.7%464 6.4%28 2.5%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%175 7.6%715 8.7%441 6.1%50 4.4%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 109 4.7%526 6.4%271 3.7%67 5.9%
Owner HHs w/ incomes <$50,000 304 902 1,061 165
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 147 48.4%644 71.4%503 47.4%80 48.5%
Renter Households
All Renter HHs 247 1,144 3,048 104
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 62 25.1%496 43.4%1,286 42.2%39 37.5%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%3 1.2%129 11.3%356 11.7%30 28.8%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%0 0.0%127 11.1%428 14.0%4 3.8%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 59 23.9%240 21.0%502 16.5%5 4.8%
Renter HHs w/ incomes <$35,000 59 241 849 45
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 59 100%222 92.1%698 82.2%35 77.8%
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner HHs 1,381 1,577 3,762 4,080
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 235 17.0%308 19.5%347 9.2%949 23.3%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%53 3.8%97 6.2%102 2.7%175 4.3%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%113 8.2%117 7.4%96 2.6%370 9.1%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 69 5.0%94 6.0%149 4.0%404 9.9%
Owner HHs w/ incomes <$50,000 269 215 267 602
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 123 45.7%143 66.5%182 68.2%485 80.6%
Renter Households
All Renter HHs 431 136 290 961
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 141 32.7%49 36.0%76 26.2%480 49.9%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%0 0.0%5 3.7%3 1.0%153 15.9%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%85 19.7%37 27.2%22 7.6%155 16.1%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 56 13.0%7 5.1%51 17.6%172 17.9%
Renter HHs w/ incomes <$35,000 159 38 65 420
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 111 69.8%32 84.2%65 100%342 81.4%
HOUSING COST BURDEN
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
--------------- continued ---------------
Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
235
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• As depicted in the following chart, the percent of all households considered cost-burdened
ranges from 10.4% in the Victoria Submarket to 28.3% in the Waconia Submarket . The per-
cent of households considered severely cost-burdened ranges from 3.4% in the Watertown
Submarket to 11.4% in the Waconia Submarket.
No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner HHs 1,811 31,595
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 274 15.1%5,565 17.6%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%113 6.2%1,638 5.2%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%111 6.1%2,188 6.9%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 50 2.8%1,739 5.5%
Owner HHs w/ incomes <$50,000 263 4,048
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 136 51.7%2,443 60.4%
Renter Households
All Renter HHs 257 6,618
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 64 24.9%2,693 40.7%
Cost Burden 30.0% to 34.9%0 0.0%679 10.3%
Cost Burden 35.0% to 49.9%44 17.1%902 13.6%
Cost Burden 50.0% or more 20 7.8%1,112 16.8%
Renter HHs w/ incomes <$35,000 80 1,956
Cost Burden 30.0% or greater 64 80.0%1,628 83.2%
Sources: American Community Survey, 2017-2021 estimates; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
9.2%
14.5%
21.2%
85.6%
18.0%
4.9%
6.6%
6.5%
62.1%
TABLE continued
HOUSING COST BURDEN
CARVER COUNTY MARKET AREA
44.9%
Watertown Carver County Metro Area
Pct.
19.0%
23.4%
23.8%
14.9%
20.8%
20.8%
10.4%
28.3%
16.3%
6.6%
8.1%
7.5%
5.8%
6.9%
5.9%
4.9%
11.4%
3.4%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
Carver County
Cost-Burdened Households by Submarket
Cost-Burdened Severely Cost-Burdened
236
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• The percentage of cost-burdened owner households is highest in the Waconia Submarket,
at 23% of all owner households including 10% that are severely cost-burdened, followed by
Chanhassen at 21% of all owner households. Cost-burdened owner households are lowest
in the Victoria (9%) and Cologne (13%) Submarkets.
• Cost-burdened renter household percentages ranges from 25% in the Watertown and
Carver Submarkets to highs of 50% in the Waconia Submarket and 43% in Chanhassen. The
percent of renter households considered severely cost-burdened is highest in the Carver
(24%) and Chanhassen (21%) Submarkets.
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
50%+4.7%6.4%3.7%5.9%5.0%6.0%4.0%9.9%2.8%
35%-50%7.6%8.7%6.1%4.4%8.2%7.4%2.6%9.1%6.1%
30%-35%6.0%5.7%6.4%2.5%3.8%6.2%2.7%4.3%6.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Cost-Burdened Owner Households by Submarket
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
50%+23.9%21.0%16.5%4.8%13.0%5.1%17.6%17.9%7.8%
35%-50%0.0%11.1%14.0%3.8%19.7%27.2%7.6%16.1%17.1%
30%-35%1.2%11.3%11.7%28.8%0.0%3.7%1.0%15.9%0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Cost-Burdened Renter Households by Submarket
237
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income
Housing costs are generally considered affordable at 30% of a households adjusted gross in-
come. The table on the following page illustrates key housing metrics based on housing costs
and household incomes in the County. The table estimates the percentage of householders
that can afford rental and for-sale housing based on a 30% allocation of income to housing.
The housing affordability calculations assume the following:
For-Sale Housing
- 10% down payment with good credit score
- Closing costs rolled into mortgage
- 30-year mortgage at 6.61% interest rate (rate as of December 28, 2023)
- Private mortgage insurance (equity of less than 20%)
- Homeowners insurance for single-family homes and association dues for townhomes
- Owner household income estimates per 2021 ACS
Rental Housing
- Background check on tenant to ensure credit history
- 30% allocation of income
- Renter household income estimates per 2021 ACS
Because of the down payment requirement and strict underwriting criteria for a mortgage, not
all households will meet the income qualifications as outlined above.
• An estimated 64% of existing owner households could afford to buy a moderately priced en-
try-level detached single-family home ($300,000) in the County.
• The proportion of income-qualified households declines as the sale price increases, and
roughly 36% of existing owner households could afford to purchase a move-up detached
single-family home priced at $500,000.
- The proportion able to afford an executive single-family home priced at $750,000 de-
clines to 20% of existing owner households.
• Roughly 71% of owner households could afford an entry-level townhome or twin home
priced at $250,000, while 50% could afford a move-up unit priced at $400,000.
- Roughly 26% of existing owner households in the County could afford a townhome or
twin home priced at $600,000.
238
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• An estimated 50% of existing renter households can afford to rent a one -bedroom unit in
the County at the average quoted rate of $1,400 per month. The percentage of income-
qualified renter households decreases to 43% that can afford an existing two-bedroom unit
($1,565 per month) and 34% of existing renter households that can afford a three-bedroom
unit ($1,817 per month).
• An estimated 42% of existing renters could afford to rent a one-bedroom apartment within
a new development renting for $1,600 per month, while 25% could afford a new two-bed-
room unit priced at $2,138 and just 17% of renter households could afford a new construc-
tion three-bedroom unit priced at $2,581.
TABLE 62
For-Sale (Assumes 10% down payment and good credit)
Entry-Level Move-Up Executive Entry-Level Move-Up Executive
Price of House $300,000 $500,000 $750,000 $250,000 $400,000 $600,000
Pct. Down Payment 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Total Down Payment Amt.$30,000 $50,000 $75,000 $25,000 $40,000 $60,000
Estimated Closing Costs*$9,000 $15,000 $22,500 $7,500 $12,000 $18,000
Cost of Loan $279,000 $465,000 $697,500 $232,500 $372,000 $558,000
Interest Rate 6.61%6.61%6.61%6.61%6.61%6.61%
Number of Pmts.360 360 360 360 360 360
Monthly Payment (P & I)-$1,784 -$2,973 -$4,459 -$1,486 -$2,378 -$3,567
(plus) Prop. Tax -$375 -$625 -$938 -$313 -$500 -$750
(plus) HO Insurance/Assoc. Fee (TH)-$100 -$167 -$250 -$150 -$150 -$150
(plus) PMI/MIP (less than 20%)-$121 -$202 -$302 -$101 -$161 -$242
Subtotal monthly costs -$2,380 -$3,966 -$5,949 -$2,050 -$3,189 -$4,709
Housing Costs as % of Income 30%30%30%30%30%30%
Minimum Income Required $95,184 $158,640 $237,960 $81,987 $127,579 $188,368
Pct. of Owner HHs - Carver County 64.4%36.4%20.1%71.4%49.5%25.9%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Carver 62.0%31.0%15.2%69.3%45.4%20.5%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Chanhassen 67.5%42.8%28.2%73.6%54.3%34.0%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Chaska 64.8%36.8%19.8%71.8%50.0%25.7%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Cologne 59.1%25.3%8.0%69.1%40.8%13.4%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Hamburg-NYA 44.7%13.8%2.8%54.2%27.3%6.0%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Mayer-NG 56.1%15.3%3.8%64.8%33.5%7.3%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Victoria 80.2%56.3%35.5%84.2%68.4%43.5%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Waconia 60.3%34.5%16.1%67.2%47.0%22.3%
Pct. of Owner HHs - Watertown 53.7%18.6%5.8%65.2%33.9%9.7%
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Detached Single-Family Townhome/Condo/Twinhome
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY - BASED ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME
---------- continued ----------
239
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• Housing affordability varies by submarket in Carver County. As illustrated below, the per-
cent of existing owner households that can afford a move -up home ranges from 14% in the
Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket to 56% in the Victoria Submarket.
Rental (Market Rate)
1BR 2BR 3BR 1BR 2BR 3BR
Monthly Rent $1,397 $1,564 $1,802 $1,600 $2,138 $2,581
Annual Rent $16,764 $18,768 $21,624 $19,200 $25,656 $30,972
Housing Costs as % of Income 30%30%30%30%30%30%
Minimum Income Required $55,880 $62,560 $72,080 $64,000 $85,520 $103,240
Pct. of Renter HHs - Carver County 49.9%43.4%34.1%42.0%25.3%16.5%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Carver 68.8%65.6%60.9%64.9%56.8%49.9%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Chanhassen 63.7%58.7%51.4%57.6%38.5%22.8%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Chaska 48.4%40.2%28.5%38.4%20.4%13.6%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Cologne 36.2%33.6%30.0%33.1%19.5%6.3%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Hamburg-NYA 36.4%30.1%21.1%28.7%17.1%14.7%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Mayer-NG 40.8%33.8%23.7%32.2%17.2%12.0%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Victoria 58.4%55.5%51.3%54.9%43.5%32.7%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Waconia 41.6%37.0%30.3%36.0%20.6%9.4%
Pct. of Renter HHs - Watertown 43.0%34.0%21.1%32.0%13.2%7.8%
*Estimated closing costs rolled into mortage
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Existing Rental New Rental
TABLE continued
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY - BASED ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
62%67%65%59%
45%
56%
80%
60%54%
31%
43%37%
25%
14%15%
56%
35%
19%15%
28%
20%
8%3%4%
36%
16%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent of Income-Qualified Owner Households
Detached Single-Family by Price Point and Submarket
Entry-Level Move-Up Executive
240
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
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• The proportions are slightly higher for owned multifamily housing (i.e. townhomes), as the
percentage that could afford a move-up multifamily units ranges from 34% in the Mayer-
New Germany and Watertown Submarkets to 68% in the Victoria Submarket.
• The following graph depicts the proportion of rental households that could afford the aver-
age one-bedroom unit rent in existing market rate rental properties in the County com-
pared to new construction one-bedroom unit rents.
• The proportion of households able to afford exiting one-bedroom units ranges from 36% in
the Cologne Submarket to 69% of renter households in the Carver Submarket. For new con-
struction, the range declines to 29% in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket to
65% of renter households in the Carver Submarket.
69%74%72%69%
54%
65%
84%
67%65%
45%
54%50%
41%
27%34%
68%
47%
34%
21%
34%
26%
13%6%7%
43%
22%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent of Income-Qualified Owner Households
Multifamily by Price Point and Submarket
Entry-Level Move-Up Executive
69%64%
48%
36%36%41%
58%
42%43%
65%58%
38%33%29%32%
55%
36%32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent of Income-Qualified Renter Households
Existing vs. New Construction 1-Bedroom Unit
Existing New Construction
241
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Homeless and Special Needs
Introduction
The following section of the housing needs analysis provides an overview of housing needs for
homeless and special needs populations in Carver County and the surrounding area. The fol-
lowing topics are covered.
Point-in-Time (PIT) counts of homeless populations
Demographic statistics of homeless populations
Coordinated Entry System (CES) findings
Summary of homeless veterans in the County
Service characteristics of homelessness in the County
Carver County shelter and long-term homeless units
At-Risk population summary
Data sources for this information include Minnesota Continuum of Care, Minnesota 2022 PIT
Counts, Minnesota Homeless Management Information System (HMIS), and Wilder Research.
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This section presents information from the Coordinated Entry System (CES), which is a national
database system and centralized process to coordinate the intake, assessment and referrals for
people experiencing homelessness to access homeless dedicated housing. It is also a system to
track availability of homeless dedicated beds and to connect people experiencing homelessness
to those spaces. Homeless dedicated housing includes rapid re-housing, transitional housing,
and permanent supportive housing (including Housing Support Long-Term Homeless (formerly
GRH-LTH).
Since 1991, Wilder Research has been conducting research and presenting data on the home-
less population in Minnesota. The Wilder study has been conducted every year through 2018,
but was then delayed by the pandemic. The research resumed in October 2023 and results of
the study will be released in March 2024. Wilder Research also conducts additional on -site sur-
veys in emergency shelters and transitional housing facilities to obtain more detailed infor-
mation on the demographic and financial characteristics of those that are homeless. Homeless
numbers continue to rise in Minnesota and across the nation. In addition, the 2018 detailed
study completed by Wilder Research identified significant increases in the number of persons,
singles, and families, who were “unsheltered,” meaning they were not housed in an emergency
shelter, transitional housing facility or in rapid re-housing properties.
Each state in the country including Minnesota conducts a single night survey of people that are
homeless. This single night count is referred to “Point-in-Time” and occurs each year in Janu-
ary. For states that are in northern climates, conducting the cou nt in January often results in
some undercounting because volunteers cannot as easily identify those that may be “doubled
up” with friends and relatives or those that are “unsheltered” and may be sleeping in a car, van,
shed or other location that is not fit or intended for human habitation.
The 2023 Point-in-Time count for Minnesota identified 8,393 people who were homeless, a 6%
increase over 2022. The number of people in households with children increased by more than
27% between 2022 and 2023. The number of people in households without children decreased
modestly (7%), but remain the majority of those that are homeless (55%) as of 2023.
The increase in the number of households with children experiencing homelessness likely rose
because of the end of the eviction moratorium and other COVID-19 protections, which were
particularly effective in serving families.
The unsheltered homeless reported higher rates of behavioral health challenges. People sleep-
ing outside were more than three times as likely to report having a serious mental illness and
nearly four times as likely to report a substance abuse disorder than those in shelters.
Since 2022, the number of people unsheltered decreased by 5% and the number of people in
shelters increased by 9% across the State. The number of people in the Twin Cities Metro Area
experiencing homelessness increased by 13% in 2023, with both sheltered and unsheltered in-
creasing. Family homelessness in the Twin Cities Metro Area increased by 53%.
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Statewide, people of color continue to be over-represented among the homeless population.
American Indian and African American populations experience the greatest disparities in repre-
sentation among the homeless. Latino and people identifying as multiple races who were
homeless increased by 53% and 46%, respectively between 2022 and 2023.
Hennepin and Ramsey Counties each have their own CES system. The outlying collar counties
in the Twin Cities Metro Area (Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Scott, and Washington) are grouped to-
gether in the Suburban Metro Area CES.
Hennepin and Ramsey Counties account for more than half of the statewide homeless popula-
tion. The 6% increase in the homeless population in Minnesota is largely accounted for by the
increase in the homeless population in Hennepin County.
All counties in Minnesota conduct a one-night count of people that are homeless. The most re-
cent data available for individual counties including the Twin Cities Metro Area is 2022. Data
for 2023 PIT has not yet been released to the “dashboard.” The Point-in-Time Counts (2022)
identified a total of 726 people that were homeless in the five collar counties in the core Metro
Area. This total was spread across the five suburban Metro Area counties as follows:
Anoka 218 people
Carver 49 people
Dakota 331 people
Scott 40 people
Washington 88 people
The homeless populations for Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are shown below:
Hennepin 2,591 people
Ramsey 1,668 people
The Wilder Research study incorporates findings from detailed face-to-face interviews with
people who are homeless and residing in emergency shelters, domestic violence shelters and
transitional housing. These detailed survey findings will be available beginning in March 2024
with the results of the Wilder Homeless report, conducted in October 2023.
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Demographic Statistics on Homeless Populations
Number of Homeless in Carver/Scott Counties and the Seven County Metro
The following table shows the number of homeless people identified through the most recent
point-in-time counts as of 2022. As shown, in the Metro Area, 4,985 people were counted as
homeless, including 726 people in the suburban Metro Area and 89 people in Carver and Scott
Counties.
TABLE 63
These are single night counts and may not incorporate all those that are homeless including
those doubled up with others in private residential situations and those that may be unable to
be clearly identified as homeless. These counts are often lower than those collected by Wilder
Research through their more detailed homeless assessment, conducted every three years.
Race/Ethnicity of Homeless
The table on the following page presents information on the race/ethnicity of those identified
as homeless during the point-in-time counts in 2022 for the Suburban Metro Area and the
Seven County Metro. Race and Ethnicity data for individual counties is not available.
As shown, 49% of the homeless population in the Suburban Metro self -identified as White,
compared to 26% in the overall Seven-County Metro Area.
The proportion of people self-identifying as Multiple Races in the Suburban Metro was nearly
equal to that of the Seven-County Metro Area at 11%.
Black, African American, and African proportions were 25% for the Suburban Metro Area and
37% for the Seven-County Metro Area.
Carver/Scott Counties Suburban Metro Area Seven County Metro
TOTAL 89 726 4,985
Note: Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott and Washington Counties
Sources: Minnesota Continuum of Care (CoC); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC.
NUMBER OF HOMELESS PEOPLE
CARVER/SCOTT COUNTIES, SUBURBAN COUNTIES AND SEVEN COUNTY METRO AREA*
2022
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TABLE 64
Gender of the Homeless Population
The following table presents information on gender among the homeless. This information is
based on self-identification in the categories.
Males represent the highest proportion of the homeless population followed by females. An-
other 10% to 15% do not identify a gender. Other categories, are proportionally much lower,
not calculated or less than 1%.
Race/Ethnicity Number Pct.Number Pct.
White 357 49.2%1,283 25.7%
Black, African American, or African 182 25.1%1,832 36.8%
Asian or Asian American 8 1.1%107 2.1%
American Indian, Alaska Native or Indigenous 8 1.1%290 5.8%
Hawaiian or Pacific Islander <5 --13 0.3%
Multiple Races 85 11.7%564 11.3%
Race Unknown 86 11.8%896 18.0%
Totals 726 100.0%4,985 100.0%
Ethnicity
Non Hispanic, Non Latino,a,x 573 78.9%3,580 71.8%
Hispanic, Latino,a,x 54 7.4%374 7.5%
Ethnicity Unknown 99 13.6%1,031 20.7%
Totals 726 100.0%4,985 100.0%
Sources: Minnesota 2022 PIT Counts; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Note: The Suburban Metro Area includes the following counties: Carver, Scott, Dakota, Washington, and Anoka. The Seven
County Metro includes the following counties: Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington.
RACE/ETHNICITY OF THE HOMELESS
CARVER/SCOTT COUNTIES, SUBURBAN METRO AND TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
2022
Suburban Metro Area Seven County Metro
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TABLE 65
Age of the Homeless Population
The following table presents information on the age of the homeless as identified through the
2022 Point-in-Time counts. As shown, most homeless in the Suburban Metro Area and the
Seven County Metro Area are adults, whether singles or in families. The table displays 64% in
the Suburban Metro Area and 66% in the Seven -County Metro are adults. The next highest cat-
egory is those under age 18, 24% in the Suburban Metro Area. Nearly 13% however, are con-
sidered as homeless unaccompanied youth, those ages 18 to 24. This is higher than for the
Metro Area at 9%.
TABLE 66
Monthly Income Number Pct.Number Pct.
Gender Other than Singularly Female or Male*<5 --8 0.2%
Gender Unknown 76 10.5%762 15.3%
Questioning <5 --<5 --
Transgender <5 --20 0.4%
Female 300 41.4%1,686 33.9%
Male 348 48.1%2,504 50.3%
TOTAL 724 100.0%4,980 100.0%
* Other than Singularly Male or Female includes Nonbinary, Gender Fluid, Agender, Culturally Specific Gender
Sources: Minnesota Point-in-Time Counts: 2022; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Note: The Suburban Metro Area includes the following counties: Carver, Scott, Dakota, Washington, and
Anoka. The Seven County Metro includes the following counties: Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey,
Scott, and Washington.
TABLE xx
GENDER OF THE HOMELESS POPULATION
SUBURBAN METRO AREA AND SEVEN COUNTY METRO AREA
2022
Suburban Metro Area Seven County Metro
Age Number Pct.Number Pct.
Under 18 179 23.5%1,162 23.1%
18 to 24 98 12.8%461 9.2%
25 or older 486 63.7%3,327 66.2%
Age Unknown <5 --72 1.4%
TOTAL 763 100.0%5,022 100.0%
Sources: Minnesota Point-in-Time Count, 2022; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Note: The Suburban Metro Area includes the following counties: Carver, Scott, Dakota,
Washington, and Anoka. The Seven County Metro includes the following counties:
Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington.
TABLE xx
AGE OF THE HOMELESS POPULATION
SUBURBAN METRO AREA AND SEVEN COUNTY METRO AREA
2022
Suburban Metro Area Seven County Metro
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Point-in-Time Results for Minnesota (2023)
The 2023 Point-in-Time count for Minnesota revealed a total of 8,393 people identified as
homeless on the single night of the count.
Of those, 80% were sheltered and 20% were unsheltered.
Households without children accounted for 55% of the homeless and households with children
accounted for 45% of the total.
People of color represent a much higher proportion of the homeless than their proportion of
the overall population. People of color accounted for two-thirds (64%) of those sheltered and
unsheltered. People of color account for 22% of Minnesota’s population.
Coordinated Entry System
The Coordinated Entry System (CES) is a centralized process that coordinates the intake, assess-
ment, and referrals for people experiencing homelessness to access homeless dedicated hous-
ing. The system tracks the availability of homeless dedicated beds and connects people experi-
encing homelessness to those spaces. Homeless dedicated housing includes rapid re-housing,
transitional housing, permanent supportive housing (including Housing Support Long-Term
Homeless (formerly GRH-LTH). Some programs are site-based while others offer a subsidy to
be used in market rate housing (scattered site).
To be eligible to be assessed for the CES system, a person must be in a shelter for 14 days or in
a place not meant for human habitation (living outside, on the train, a car, etc. or fleeing or at-
tempting to flee domestic violence). People who are “couch hopping,” in jail, treatment, or any
transitional setting are not considered eligible for assessment. Only homeless dedicated hous-
ing is filled through CES. This may create additional barriers for those that may be residing with
friends and/or relatives and may have temporary but not permanent shelter.
As of mid-April 2023, there was a total of 674 households in the Suburban Metro Area who had
been assessed in CES and are awaiting housing. Of those, 97 households were age 55 years or
older.
In Carver and Scott Counties, there were 133 households who had been assessed in CES and of
those 21 households were age 55 years or older.
Households may be currently living in Hennepin or Ramsey County and may have identified
they want to return or relocate to Carver County. Households in other counties may list Carver
County as their first priority or a subsequent priority. Often the goal is to just secure a perma-
nent affordable residence that meets their needs.
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As of 2022, a total of 6,140 clients were served in suburban Metro Area Counties across the fol-
lowing housing products:
Coordinated Entry System – 2,188 people served
Emergency Shelter – 1,285 people served
Homeless Prevention – 1,317 people served
Permanent Housing – 1,414 people housed
Rapid Re-Housing – 653 people served
Street Outreach – 1,008 people contacted/served
Support Services – 473 people served
Transitional Housing – 154 people housed
Homeless Veterans
The following table shows the number of Veterans and Non-Veterans in Carver County and
those with incomes that are below the Federal Poverty Level. The table shows that Veterans
comprise 5.4% of the population in Carver County and of those 1.2% have incomes that are be-
low the Poverty Level. Among the Non-Veteran population 4.1% have incomes that are below
the Federal Poverty Level.
TABLE 67
The Minnesota Assistance Council for Veterans (MACV) provides assistance to Veterans and
their families including housing support, emergency assistance, employment assistance, health
care assistance, legal aid, and other services. It is MACV’s mission to end Veteran homelessness
in Minnesota. MACV works with local non-profit agencies to provide transitional and perma-
nent supportive housing for Veterans across the State. In 2022, MACV and its related service
and development partners housed 299 Veterans from homelessnes s. While most housing for
homeless Veterans has been developed in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, additional facilities
are in Carver, Dakota, and Scott Counties.
MACV and its partners have made significant inroads to housing homeless Veterans and getting
them the services they need to be able to support and retain a permanent housing situation.
Less than 10% of Veterans housed through MACV services return to homel essness.
Veteran Population Non Veteran Population*
Population 4,260 74,674
% of Total Population 5.4%94.6%
Population Below Poverty Level 50 3070
% of Population Below Poverty Level 1.2%4.1%
Source: American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates.
*Includes civilian population 18 and Over.
VETERAN & NON VETERAN* DEMOGRAPHICS
CARVER COUNTY
2021
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Carver County – Service Characteristics of the Homeless
In 2022, the following statistics were specific to Carver County. All Clients served during 2022
totaled 500 including those in the CES system. Some clients were served through multiple seg-
ments. The percent listed is the proportion of the Suburban Metro Area that was accounted for
in Carver County. As shown, support services ranked high at 20.3% served. Despite limited
shelter resources, 12.1% of the total Suburban Metro numbers were sheltered in Carver
County.
Coordinated Entry System – 232 people served (9.4%)
Emergency Shelter – 156 people sheltered (12.1%)
Homeless Prevention – 64 people served (4.9%)
Permanent Housing – 126 people housed (8.9%)
Rapid Re-Housing – 44 people housed (6.7%)
Street Outreach – 8 people contacted/served (0.8%)
Support Services – 96 people served (20.3%)
Transitional Housing – 13 people housed (8.4%)
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Carver County – Demographic Statistics – Households in Coordinated Entry
The following table displays a summary of demographic statistics of households in Carver
County in the Coordinated Entry System. As shown, most of the households in Carver County in
CES are White alone, female, adults, singles and have a disability. In addition, 25% are chroni-
cally homeless and only three percent are Veterans.
TABLE 68
Key Findings Regarding Homeless and Homeless Families
According to HMIS, nearly 8,400 Minnesotans were homeless on a single night in January 2023.
Emergency shelters fill as winter approaches in Minnesota, and there are not enough shelter
beds to accommodate the demand. As a result, a portion of homeless are forced to find other
types of shelter, including tents and clustering in encampments to be a ble to live.
A recent study released by the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) and the Hennepin
Healthcare Research Institute (HHRI) demonstrates that the homeless die at much higher rates
than the general population. This pattern holds true regardless of age, gender, or race.
Carver Co Carver Co Carver Co Carver Co
Race Percent Gender Percent Age Percent HH Type Percent
White alone 59%Male 44%Under 18 25%Families 46%
Black, African American 25%Female 55%18-24 18%Singles 54%
Native American 10%N/A 1%25-54 45%
Asian 2%55+9%
N/A 4%N/A 3%
Latino/Hispanic Origin 18%
Carver Co Carver Co Carver Co
Disability Percent Homeless Percent Veteran Percent
No Disability 45%Chronic 25%No Veteran 97%
Disability 50%Not Chronic 75%Veteran 3%
N/A 5%
Note: N/A = Not Available
Source: MN HMIS; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIENTS SERVED/HOUSED
CARVER COUNTY
2022
COORDINATED ENTRY SYSTEM
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The Minnesota Homeless Mortality Report 2017-2021 summarizes data from the first system-
atic look at mortality among people experiencing homelessness who die in Minnesota. The
Health, Homelessness, and Criminal Justice Lab at HHRI merged Minnesota Homeless Manage-
ment Information System data on people who used homeless services from 2017 to 2021 with
Minnesota state death data and Minnesota population data from 2017 to 2020 f rom the U.S.
Census to compare sociodemographic differences and causes of death. The report and its rec-
ommendations can be found at Center of Excellence on Public Health and Homelessness.
Health officials have long observed that Minnesotans experiencing homelessness had higher
rates of poor health outcomes. Minnesota Commissioner of Health Dr. Brooke Cunningham
said the new report’s analysis puts the problem – and need for solutions – in sharp focus.
In May 2023, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed a bill that was the State’s largest ever in-
vestment in affordable housing. In total, the 2023 legislative session resulted in $2 billion dedi-
cated to housing and homelessness resources. Their budget seeks to help those experiencing
homelessness with a variety of provisions including:
• Funding to prevent youth and family homelessness, including rental assistance, down pay-
ment assistance, and the expansion of the Homework Starts with Home program;
• Increasing emergency shelter and funding for access to affordable and transitional housing;
• Supporting Minnesotans living with addiction by establishing overdose prevention hubs and
expanding access to harm reduction services for people experiencing homelessness;
• Providing access to stable housing and successful reintegration into society for Minnesotans
leaving the criminal justice system; and
• Funding to make Minnesota the fourth state in the nation to end veterans’ homelessness.
Homeless Populations Summary
Based on the data presented in this section, following are the key points relating to the poten-
tial need/demand for housing to serve the homeless population and particularly, the homeless
older adult population.
• The most recent Point-in-Time counts for 2022 identified 89 homeless people in Carver and
Scott Counties.
• Most homeless are adults over the age of 25 (63.7%) and the highest proportion of home-
less in the Suburban Metro Area are White (49.2%), followed by Black, African American or
African (25.1%). In the Metro Area, a higher proportion of homeless are adults (66%) and a
higher proportion are Black, African American or African (36.8%) versus White (25.7%).
• According to data from the Metro Area Coordinated Entry System, 133 households in Carver
and Scott Counties are in the CES system waiting to be able to access permanent shelter
and of those, 21 are age 55 years or older. These figures only account for persons that are
currently residing in Carver/Scott Counties and do not include any households that are living
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in adjacent counties that have identified Carver/Scott County as their first or subsequent
choice for housing. Many homeless households will relocate across the Metro Area to
secure permanent housing that is affordable and serves their needs.
Carver County Shelter and Long-Term Homeless Units
There is limited emergency and transitional housing available in Carver and Scott Counties as of
2023. There are currently four family shelter units (average of 12 beds) that were available un-
til December 2023. There are another four additional units (two beds each for a total of 8 beds)
which can be utilized for either families or singles through an OEO ESP Grant plus weather
vouchers which are inconsistent, but can serve up to 40 households annually, most during the
winter months.
There is also Board funding that provides for another five units (usually single adults, couples or
small families), equating to ten beds. These equal a total of 13 units or 30 beds at this time.
There is no transitional housing in the County. CAP has a Rapid Re-Housing program, but no
transitional housing program. Southern Valley Alliance, situated in Scott County and in partner-
ship with the Carver County CDA has a transitional housing grant. SVA has four transitional
units in Carver County.
Community Action Partnership (CAP) Agency of Scott, Carver, and Dakota Counties serves
households in Scott, Carver, and Dakota Counties with emergency assistance. The agency has a
location servicing Scott and Carver Counties at 738 1st Avenue East in Shakopee.
Home health care service providers in proximity to the Site include BrightStar Care of Carver
and Scott Counties and the home health division of Ridgeview Health System. Brightstar Care
of Carver and Scott Counties is at 7460 South Park Drive and Savage and Home Health of
Ridgeview is located at 501 South Maple Street in Waconia.
According to data provided by the CDA, the following properties in Carver County provide hous-
ing for Long-Term Homeless (LTH), High Priority Homeless (HPH) and Persons with Disabilities
(PWD).
These properties are:
Creeks Run – 8 units (all LTH)
Carver Crossing – 4 units (all LTH)
Clover Field MarketPlace – 6 units (all LTH)
Vista Ridge - 8 units (4 – HPH, 4 – PWD)
Trails Edge – 8 units (4 – HPH, 4 – PWD)
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There are also Project-Based Vouchers allocated to the CDA through the Metro HRA:
Mainstream - 20
Homeless – 9
Regular PBV – 26
RAD (former public housing) – 81
School District Partnership for homeless or at risk of homelessness – 10
Beyond New Beginnings (for young mothers) – 4
Homeless Veterans - 3
Planned Housing for Long-Term Homeless and Special Needs
West Creek will have 19 studio permanent supportive housing units designated for homeless
youth ages 18 to 24 (one unit will be for the caretaker). The property will be in Chaska. Sup-
portive services will be provided by Launch Ministries. Of the 16 units, four will be designated
for High Priority Homeless (HPH) and another four will serve People with Disabilities (PWD).
The remaining eight units will have rent and income restrictions set a 30% of AMI, allowing for
homeless youth that do not qualify for Housing Support to access stable housing.
Carver Place in Carver will be owned by the CDA. A spring 2024 groundbreaking is planned and
the property will have a total of 60 affordable rental units. Of those, 7 will be reserved for HPH
households and 7 for Section 811 PRA households (those with di sabilities).
The very tight housing market along with the economic recession contributed to the destabili-
zation of the housing market and individuals who may have been at one time able to maintain a
permanent living situation have been faced with more significant challenges to keeping and
maintaining housing that is affordable. An increasing number of households, singles and fami-
lies are at risk of becoming homeless.
There is a lack of properties that will accept Housing Choice Vouchers and many properties
have rent levels set higher than the payment standards currently accepted by Metro HRA for
the Zip Codes identified in Carver County. In addition, many landlords will not accept individu-
als and households that have backgrounds with barriers. As such, individuals already facing
challenges are then significantly more limited in their ability to secure stable housing.
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TABLE 69
No. of
Date Units
Development/Location Opened No. for Homeless Vacant
Creeks Run Townhomes - I 2014 40 4 7 -2BR 1,730 -1,730 $1,400 -$1,400
421 Yellow Brick Circle 4-HPH 10%25 -3BR 1,865 -1,865 $1,600 -$1,600
Chaska, MN 8 -4BR 2,065 -2,065 $1,750 -$1,750
Creeks Run Townhomes - II 2017 36 1 4 -2BR 1,730 -1,730 $1,150 -$1,150
525-535 Yellow Brick Circle 4-HPH 3%26 -3BR 1,865 -1,865 $1,319 -$1,319
Chaska, MN 6 -4BR 2,065 -2,065 $1,350 -$1,350
Carver Crossing 2016 68 1 14 -1BR 796 -807 $1,000 -$1,346
1593 Hartwell Drive 4-HPH 1%36 -2BR 1,015 -1,315 $1,200 -$1,610
Carver, MN 18 -3BR 1,294 -1,352 $1,380 -$1,857
Vista Ridge 2020 52 10 12 -1BR 674 -674
861 Vista Boulevard 4-PSH 15%25 -2BR 916 -1,040
Waconia, MN 15 -3BR 1,184 -1,360
Trails Edge South 2016 60 5 15 -1BR 648 -794
885 Airport Road 4-PSH 8%30 -2BR 885 -1,047 $1,150 -$1,271
Waconia, MN 15 -3BR 1,151 -1,186 $1,325 -$1,464
Clover Field Marketplace 2008 59 4 16 -1BR 681 -774 $1,260 -$1,320
2915 Clover Ridge Dr 6-LTH 7%29 -2BR 960 -1,139 $1,500 -$1,560
Chaska, MN 14 -3BR 1,364 -1,379 $1,358 -$1,820
Total Units 315
Total Vacant Units - Affordable 25
Total Units HPH/PSW/LTH 26
Total Vacant Units - HPH/PSW 0
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
Mixed-income with 59 units income-restricted at 60% AMI
plus 57 market rate units. Project-based rent assistance for
21 households. Unable to obtain information from property
management; data sourced from property website and
secondary resources.
Singles and families
Vacancy Rate = 7.9%
$978 General Occupancy;
Singles and families
General Occupancy;
Managed and operated by Carver County CDA; permanent
supportive housing (four units); none of the vacant units are
PSH. Project funded with 9% LIHTC restricted to HHs at 60%
AMI or lower and HPH (plus 4 PWD units) at 30% AMI.
$1,045 General Occupancy;
$1,290 Singles and families
$1,550
Managed by Velair Management; four units of permanent
supportive housing for formerly homeless.
General Occupancy;
Singles and families
Managed by Steven Scott Management; LIHTC project with
four units for high priority homeless. None of the vacant
units are HPH.
Managed by Premier Management. Property funded through
the LIHTC program; four units receive Housing Supports
(formerly GRH) for formerly homeless. Units targeted at 50%
of AMI. HPH units targeted at 30% of AMI. None of the vacant
units at HPH.
Targeted to families
w/children
Managed by Premier Management; Property was funded
through the LIHTC program; four units receive Housing
Supports (formerly GRH) for formerly homeless. Units
targeted at 50% of AMI. HPH units targeted at 30% of AMI.
None of the units vacant are HPH.
HPH Vacancy Rate = 0.0%
TARGETED AFFORDABLE PROPERTIES WITH HIGH PRIORITY HOMELESS UNITS AND PERMANENT SUPPORTIVE HOUSING UNITS
EXISTING RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS FOR LONG-TERM HOMELESS/PERMANENT SUPPORTIVE HOUSING
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
Monthly Resident
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent/Fees Profile Notes
Targeted to familes
w/children
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At-Risk Populations
The graphic on the following page demonstrates key demographic and economic data regarding
the at-risk population in the County (Primary Market Area).
An estimated 4.0% of households live below the poverty level and 5,814 people residing in the
County have some type of disability. The diversity index in the is 32 of 100, indicating that the
County is somewhat diverse.
The high proportion of units that will be available to households with incomes at or below 30%
of AMI, supports the need in the County for low income units that are affordable to single and
family households that have a significant need for this type of housing.
An estimated 0.7% of households in the County have a limited ability to speak in English or not
at all.
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Demand Analysis
Introduction
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC was engaged to quantify the demand potential for housing
development in Carver County from 2023 to 2040. Earlier sections of this report examined
growth trends and demographic characteristics of the household base in Carver County, as well
as employment trends, housing characteristics, and housing market conditions in the County
and its submarkets. This section of the report provides our demand calculations for new hous-
ing in the County to 2040, including the following product types.
General occupancy for-sale housing demand
General occupancy rental housing demand calculations, including demand for subsi-
dized, affordable, and market rate rental housing
Owned and rented market rate active adult senior housing demand
Demand for affordable and subsidized senior rental housing
Demand for service-enhanced (independent living, assisted living, and memory care)
senior housing
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Interview Summary
In an attempt to gain additional insight into housing market needs in Carver County, Maxfield
Research solicited input from real estate professionals and representatives from major employ-
ers in the area. Topics addressed included issues such as types of housing being sought in the
area, whether there are gaps in the existing supply of available housing in the area, and the im-
pact housing availability has on the ability of employers to attract and retain workers. The fol-
lowing points summarize findings from this process.
• Carver County was described as having a strong economy and a great place to raise a family.
• Communities in the eastern half of the County are very different than the more rural com-
munities in the northern and western portions of the County, in terms of housing values,
incomes, jobs, etc.
• It was stated that the County has really good schools, and people are moving to the County
for its schools.
• Some of the school districts, particularly the more rural districts (i.e. Watertown-Mayer,
Central Public Schools) are experiencing stable to declining enrollment. There seems to be
a demographic shift where people are having fewer children.
• The presence of Ridgeview Medical Center in Waconia is a vital service and draws people to
the County.
• The housing inventory in Carver County has been very tight over the past several years, and
there’s a shortage of listings. Homes seem to get sold shortly after being on the market.
These conditions are driving up prices.
• There is a limited inventory of existing homes available, and much of what is available is
higher-end new construction.
• There is a lack of inventory for first-time homebuyers as well as empty nesters who want to
move out of their single-family home.
• All product types are in demand, including acreage. Many buyers looking for acreage have
to leave the County. It was suggested that the County should consider allowing some
higher density residential development in the townships/rural areas than what is currently
allowed.
• Housing affordability is a major issue, as many potential buyers can’t afford the housing
that’s available, especially new construction.
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• Home prices seem high relative to incomes, particularly in the western half of the County.
• It’s especially difficult for first-timer buyers to find housing anywhere in the County.
• High land costs and high development costs, including City fees, are driving up the price of
new construction homes.
• Expensive land is leading to the construction of expensive housing, and no affordable prod-
uct is being built.
• Generally, price points are higher in the eastern half of the County than in the western and
northern portions of the County. You can buy “more house for the money” in the western
half of the County.
• There is a gap in the market for lower-priced housing, and many of these buyers end up
moving west or north, out of the County.
• Carver County is losing some young, family households because they can’t find affordable
housing in the County.
• A typical price-point for entry-level detached single-family housing ranges from $275,000 to
$350,000. Move-up housing ranges from $450,000 to $550,000, and executive housing
starts at around $750,000 and increases from there.
• Much of the executive housing is being built on acreages .
• Some of the communities have a limited supply of developable land which could restrain
growth.
• It would be very difficult to build anything for under $350,000 , although there would be
strong demand for new housing priced below $350,000.
• Some of the newer residential developments have high HOA fees, with seemingly little in
return. These fees further impact housing affordability.
• Many buyers are looking for one-level single-family homes and empty nesters are looking
for maintenance-free housing in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, but there’s little product
available.
• There are pockets of attached single-family homes throughout the County, but these homes
aren’t on the market very often.
• Most of the homes being built are two-story homes, not single-level.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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• Many potential buyers are “sitting on the fence” due to the relatively high interest rates,
unless they’re a cash buyer. Many cash buyers are investors turning single-family homes
into rentals.
• There was a “boom” in the market post-COVID with strong demand and unprecedented in-
creases in home sale values. That “boom” is over, and values are stabilizing. Many buyers
overspent, in some cases by $100,000 or more.
• The market was described as being in a “log-jam” as homeowners that are considering sell-
ing have nowhere to move.
• The rental market is also expensive and very tight, with little availability for renters with
modest incomes.
• The County’s rental market has been experiencing fast growth, although rents in the new
buildings are high.
• There is a niche market for “tiny homes” as an affordable housing option, but very few loca-
tions to construct a tiny home.
• The Highway 212 expansion project will stimulate demand for new housing in the western
half of the County, particularly Cologne and Norwood Young America.
• There is a need for more commercial services in these communities, notably a grocery
store. Additional commercial goods/services could potentially attract more residents.
• Many new hires want to relocate to the County but have a difficult time finding affordable
housing, particularly younger workers.
• Workers with annual incomes in the $40,000 to $50,000 range have a hard time affording
the housing that’s available in the County.
• In some cases, new hires have had to leave their job or turn down the opportunity, because
they weren’t able to find housing.
• Overall, the lack of available affordably priced housing is making it difficult for some em-
ployers to hire new workers.
• Many new hires would like to rent for a period before purchasing a home, but there seems
to be a lack of available rental housing.
• There is very little rental housing available, and much of the rental stock is older and some-
what undesirable.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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• Much of the affordably priced rental housing is subsidized and not available to area work-
ers, and rents at the new rental properties are too high for people earning modest incomes.
• It was stated that the greatest housing need in the County is housing for moderate income
buyers.
• There is also a need for more housing targeted to senior s that want to move out of their sin-
gle-family homes, which could increase the availability of some older, more affordably
priced housing.
• More entry-level housing to attract young families is needed in the County.
• It seems that much of the housing in the County is either “high-end” or subsidized, and
there is little available for the “middle”.
• Communities such as Norwood Young America and Cologne could benefit from the develop-
ment of rental townhomes or apartments priced for moderate income renters.
• It was suggested that the County could try to find a way to bring down development costs.
Being creative with infrastructure expansion/costs and forming a land trust were suggested
as possible ways to reduce development costs.
• It was also recommended that the County should try to acquire land and pick a builder to
construct affordably priced housing, although su bsidies may be needed to make this work
financially for a builder.
• The development of more affordable housing begins with more affordable lot prices. This
might be easier to accomplish in the western half of the County.
• There is a strong need for a public-private partnership to create additional affordable hous-
ing opportunities in the County.
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis
Earlier sections of this report examined growth trends and demographic characteristics of the
household base in Carver County and its submarkets along with housing market conditions in
the area. The table on the following pages presents demand calculations for general occupancy
for-sale housing in each of the County submarkets from 2023 to 2040. This analysis identifies
potential demand for general occupancy for-sale housing that is generated from both new
households and turnover households.
First, we calculate potential demand from new household growth based on the propensity of
households to own their housing. For this analysis, we focus on households under the age of 75
that will account for the majority of general-occupancy for-sale housing demand. Next, we cal-
culate the percentage of household growth that would likely own their housing based on 2021
American Community Survey data.
- We estimate that household growth will generate demand for 5,225 units between
2023 and 2030. Household growth will generate demand for an estimated 6,130 units
in the County from 2030 to 2040.
As of 2023, there are an estimated 31,617 owner households under the age of 75 in the County
that comprise the primary market for general occupancy for-sale housing. Based on household
turnover data from the 2021 American Community Survey, we estimate that 28% of these
owner households will experience turnover between 2023 and 2030 and another 39% will expe-
rience turnover from 2030 to 2040. We then estimate the percent of existing owner house-
holds turning over that would prefer to purchase new housing based on national metrics and
local new construction home sale data.
- Total demand from household growth plus existing household turnover equates to
6,864 new for-sale housing units in the County between 2023 and 2030 with demand for
another 8,438 units from 2030 to 2040.
An additional proportion is added for households that would purchase a home in each submar-
ket who currently reside outside the area. We estimated that 25% of the demand potential for
general occupancy ownership per submarket.
- Overall, we find demand potential for 9,152 new general occupancy for-sale housing
units in the County between 2023 and 2030 and 11,250 new units from 2030 to 2040.
Based on the age distribution of households in each submarket, residential building permit
trends, and residential lot supply, we estimate the proportion of new housing units that will be
detached single-family units versus multifamily units (townhomes, twin homes, condominiums).
We estimate that there will be demand for 7,221 new detached single-family units (79%) be-
tween 2023 and 2030 and 1,931 multifamily units (21%). From 2030 to 2040, we estimate de-
mand for 8,988 detached single-family units and 2,263 multifamily units.
263
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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TABLE 70
Demand from Projected HH Growth
HH growth, 2023-2030 1
(times) Propensity to own2 x
(equals) Demand from HH growth =
Demand from Existing Owner HHs
Existing owner HHs under age 75, 2023 =
(times) Est. % HH turnover, 2023-2030 3 x
(times) Est. % desiring new housing 4 x
(equals) Demand from existing HHs =
Total demand from HH growth+turnover =
(plus) Demand from outside submarket +
(equals) Demand Potential =
(times) Pct. SF vs. MF*x
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
2 Pct. Owner households under age 75 from American Community Survey
3 Based on owner household turnover and mobility data (American Community Survey)
4 Based on new construction sales data, construction trends, and growth projections by age group
*Single-family (SF) includes detached single-family; Multifamily (MF) includes attached single-family (i.e. townhomes, twinhomes) and condominium units.
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
90%10%
462 308
SF MF SF MF
60%40%
SF MF
85%15%
335
2,553
25%
25%
30%
194
529
1 Projected growth among households under age 75
SF MF
90%
634
10%
70
90%
GENERAL OCCUPANCY FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 to 2030
1,250 279 2071,296 647
81%
Carver
372
Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG
92%
Victoria Waconia Watertown
217 1,677
705
20%
1,344 336376
1,680
296
1,409
25%
SF MF
80%20%
1,502
80%
1,113
7,895
25%
15%
1,878
SF MF
73%
950
7,130
29%
15%
310
1,260
25%
89%
25%
770
324
25%
432
91%
254
990
28%
25%
577
375 6638943
140
331
25%
441
227 226 123
429 1,601 405
190
1,557
30%
30%
70
524
1,484
24%
15%
53
320
93%82%88%
202 1,375 282
3,980 3,996 2,032
38%28%20%
15%20%30%
SF MF SF MF SF MF
25%25%25%
572 2,135 540
75%25%80%20%70%30%
429 143 1,708 427 378 162
264
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 255
Demand from Projected Household Growth
HH growth, 2030-2040 1
(times) Propensity to own 2 x
(equals) Demand from HH growth =
Demand from Existing Owner Households
Owner HHs under age 75, 2030 =
(times) Est. % HH turnover, 2030-2040 3 x
(times) Est. % desiring new housing 4 x
(equals) Demand from existing HHs =
Total demand from HH growth+turnover =
(plus) Demand from outside submarket +
(equals) Demand Potential =
(times) Pct. SF vs. MF*x
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
2 Pct. Owner households under age 75 from American Community Survey
3 Based on owner household turnover and mobility data (American Community Survey)
4 Based on new construction sales data, construction trends, and growth projections by age group
*Single-family (SF) includes detached single-family; Multifamily (MF) includes attached single-family (i.e. townhomes, twinhomes) and condominium units.
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
GENERAL OCCUPANCY FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2030 to 2040
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
990 1,501 1,572 241 491 231 589 1,366 287
90%89%73%91%81%92%93%82%88%
891 1,336 1,152 220 398 213 548 1,120 253
2,577 5,253 1,913
37%37%39%39%35%41%49%
2,498 7,572 7,459 1,129 1,912 1,385
41%29%
30%15%15%25%15%30%15%20%30%
280 420 436 110 101 170 190 433 167
738 1,553 420
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
1,171 1,756 1,589 330 499 383
25%25%
1,561 2,342 2,118 440 665 511 984 2,071 560
SF MF SF MF SF MF SF MF SF MF SF MFMFSF
90%10%80%20%80%
MF SF MF SF
30%
1,405 156 1,873 468 1,695 424 396 44 399
15%75%25%80%20%70%20%90%10%60%40%85%
414 392 168
1 Projected growth among households under age 75
266 434 77 738 246 1,656
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CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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These demand projections suggest an increased pace of residential development in the County
relative to the past several years. We estimate that there will be demand for 1,307 new hous-
ing units annually, on average, from 2023 to 2030, declining to 1,125 new units annually be-
tween 2030 and 2040. By comparison, 926 new housing units were permitted annually, on av-
erage, between 2018 and 2022 in the County.
The following graph depicts total general occupancy for -sale housing demand in the County
from 2023 to 2040 by product type for each submarket. As illustrated, demand is projected to
be highest in the Chanhassen, Waconia, Chaska, and Carver Submarkets.
Lot Supply
These estimates assume that residential lots will be available to support the projected demand
in each submarket. As summarized below, the current supply of vacant developed lots and fu-
ture lots is not sufficient to satisfy projected for-sale housing demand in many of the submar-
kets.
We identified 1,050 vacant developed detached single-family lots and 4,255 future detached
single-family lots in Carver County, along with 104 vacant developed multifamily lots and 788
future multifamily lots. Additionally, we identified 595 detached single-family and 66 multifam-
ily lots pending (concept) in the County.
2,039
3,376
3,039
784
861
809
1,167
3,365
770
227
844
760
87
574
143
389
841
330
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
Carver
Chanhassen
Chaska
Cologne
Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG
Victoria
Waconia
Watertown
General Occupancy For-Sale Housing Demand 2023 -2040
Carver County by Submarket and Product Type
Detached SF Units Multifamily Units
266
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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Based on the for-sale housing demand calculations (16,208 detached single-family units and
4,194 multifamily units needed by 2040), the existing supply of vacant and future lots is suffi-
cient to satisfy short-term demand, but additional lots will be needed by 2040. There is an ap-
proximately 5.6-year supply of detached single-family lots (vacant plus future) and a 3.6-year
supply of multifamily lots in Carver County. However, the supply of development-ready (vacant
developed lots) is much smaller, at a 1.1-year supply of detached single-family and a 0.4-year
supply of multifamily vacant developed lots.
The following graph illustrates the supply of residential lots available (vacant developed lots
and future lots) relative to the general occupancy for-sale housing demand estimated for each
submarket.
Based on years’ supply, the Chanhassen (0.9 years), Carver (2.4), Cologne (2.8), and Chaska (2.9)
Submarkets have the most immediate need for additional residential lots. The Mayer-New Ger-
many Submarket has the largest inventory of residential lots, based on years’ supply, with the
vast majority being future lots in the Fieldstone Subdivision (1,279 lots) in Mayer.
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
Total Demand 2,265 4,220 3,798 871 1,435 951 1,555 4,206 1,100
Lots Available 319 230 637 142 321 1,709 492 1,474 798
Years Supply 2.4 0.9 2.9 2.8 3.8 30.5 5.4 6.0 12.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Years SupplyUnits/LotsResidential Lot Supply vs. Demand
Carver County by Submarket
267
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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General Occupancy Rental Housing Demand Analysis
The demand table on the following page presents our calculation of general occupancy rental
housing demand in Carver County by submarket between 2023 and 2040. Factors considered
include demographic trends, population shifts, and pending developments. Potential rental
housing demand is calculated from two categories:
1. From new household growth based on the propensity of households to rent their hous-
ing; and,
2. From existing households that will remain in the Market Area because new product is
available and they value other area amenities including proximity to education, employ-
ment, entertainment and recreation.
First, we calculate potential demand from new household growth based on the propensity of
households to rent their housing. For this analysis, we focus on households under the age of 75
that will account for the majority of general occupancy rental demand. Next, we calculate the
percentage of household growth that will likely rent their housing based on 2021 American
Community Survey data.
- Estimated demand from household growth equates to 1,050 rental housing units from
2023 to 2030 and 1,152 units between 2030 and 2040.
The second part of the analysis calculates demand from existing households, or turnover de-
mand. Younger households tend to be highly mobile, relative to older households. Mobility
rates were calculated for the renter population based on American Community Survey data and
were applied to the existing renter household base. As of 2023, there are an estimated 6,226
renter households under age 75 in the County.
Based on household turnover data from the 2021 American Community Survey, we estimate
that 73% of these renter households will experience turnover from 2023 to 2030 and 83% will
turnover between 2030 and 2040. We then estimate the percentage of the existing renter
households that will seek new rental housing resulting in demand for 1,150 new units from
turnover by 2030 and 1,102 units between 2030 and 2040.
- Together, demand from projected household growth plus turnover equals estimated de-
mand for 2,155 rental housing units from 2023 to 2030 and 2,254 units between 2030
and 2040 in Carver County.
An additional proportion is added for households that would move to a rental project in each
submarket. We estimate a range of 20% to 30% depending on factors such as location and
proximity to employment, entertainment, and services. This results in total rental housing de-
mand potential for 3,017 new rental units by 2030 and 3,156 units between 2030 and 2040.
268
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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TABLE 71
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
Demand from Projected Household Growth
HH growth, 2023-2030 1 372 1,250 1,296 279 647 207 217 1,677 320
(times) Propensity to rent2 x 10%11%27%9%19%8%7%18%12%
(equals) Demand from HH growth =38 139 350 25 123 17 16 304 38
Demand from Existing Renter Households
Existing renter HHs under age 75, 2023 =343 1,056 2,781 106 368 141 355 879 197
(times) Est. % HH turnover, 2023-2030 3 x 81%75%75%60%75%65%71%61%78%
(times) Est. % desiring new housing4 x 25%25%25%20%20%20%25%25%20%
(equals) Demand from existing HHs =70 199 521 13 55 18 63 134 31
Total demand from HH growth+turnover 108 338 871 38 178 36 79 438 69
(plus) Demand from outside submarket +25%30%30%20%20%20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =144 482 1,245 47 223 44 113 626 92
(times) % for Market Rate units 5 x 71%67%53%38%40%45%60%44%48%
(minus) Pending Market Rate units 6 -0 0 686 0 0 0 270 149 0
(equals) Excess Market Rate Demand =102 323 22 18 89 20 -183 137 44
(times) % for Affordable units 5 x 11%16%23%20%28%33%18%19%23%
(minus) Pending Affordable units 6 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(equals) Excess Affordable Demand =16 75 288 9 63 15 20 116 21
(times) % for Subsidized units 5 x 18%17%24%42%32%22%22%38%29%
(minus) Pending Subsidized units 6 -0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
(equals) Excess Subsidized Demand =26 84 283 20 71 10 25 235 27
2 Pct. renter households under age 75 from American Community Survey
3 Based on renter household turnover and mobility data (American Community Survey)
4 Based on leasing trends, occupancy rates among existing product, and renter household incomes
5 Based on income limits and renter household incomes
6 Pending product includes units under construction or approved at equilibrium (93% occupancy)
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 to 2030
1 Projected growth among households under age 75
269
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
Demand from Projected Household Growth
HH growth, 2030-2040 1 990 1,501 1,572 241 491 231 589 1,366 287
(times) Propensity to rent2 x 10%11%27%9%19%8%7%18%12%
(equals) Demand from HH growth =102 167 424 22 93 19 43 247 34
Demand from Existing Renter Households
Existing renter HHs under age 75, 2030 =286 944 2,748 111 448 125 202 1,159 260
(times) Est. % HH turnover, 2030-2040 3 x 81%75%75%60%75%65%71%61%78%
(times) Est. % desiring new housing4 x 25%25%25%20%20%20%25%25%20%
(equals) Demand from existing HHs =58 178 515 13 67 16 36 177 41
Total demand from HH growth+turnover 160 344 940 35 161 35 79 425 75
(plus) Demand from outside submarket +25%30%30%20%20%20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =214 492 1,342 44 201 44 113 607 100
(times) % for Market Rate units 5 x 71%67%53%38%40%45%60%44%48%
(minus) Pending Market Rate units 6 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(equals) Excess Market Rate Demand =152 330 711 17 80 20 68 267 48
(times) % for Affordable units 5 x 11%16%23%20%28%33%18%19%23%
(minus) Pending Affordable units 6 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(equals) Excess Affordable Demand =23 77 310 9 57 15 20 112 23
(times) % for Subsidized units 5 x 18%17%24%42%32%22%22%38%29%
(minus) Pending Subsidized units 6 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(equals) Excess Subsidized Demand =39 86 321 18 64 10 25 227 29
2 Pct. renter households under age 75 from American Community Survey
3 Based on renter household turnover and mobility data (American Community Survey)
4 Based on leasing trends, occupancy rates among existing product, and renter household incomes
5 Based on income limits and renter household incomes
6 Pending product includes units under construction or approved at equilibrium (93% occupancy)
Note: Some totals may not add due to rounding
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
1 Projected growth among households under age 75
TABLE continued
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2030 to 2040
270
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 261
Based on a review of renter household incomes and income limits set by HUD and Minnesota
Housing, we estimate the proportion of the total demand potential by rental housing product
type, as follows:
- Market rate housing
- Affordable housing (affordable to households with incomes between 30% and 60% AMI)
- Subsidized housing (affordable to households at 30% AMI or less)
These proportions vary by submarket, but an estimated 53% of the demand potential in the
County will be for market rate units, ranging from 38% in the Cologne Submarket to 71% in the
Carver Submarket. An estimated 26% of the total demand potential will be for subsidized units,
ranging from 17% in the Chanhassen Submarket to 42% in the Cologne Submarket. The remain-
ing 21% will be for affordable units with a range from 11% in the Carver Submarket to 33% in
the Mayer-New Germany Submarket.
Due to the income limits in Carver County relative to market rate rents, there is some crossover
between affordable demand and market rate demand, as some households income-qualified
for affordable housing may also be able to afford new market rate rental housing.
From the 2023 to 2030 demand potential, we subtract pending developments at stabilized oc-
cupancy (93%) to find the remaining excess demand in each submarket. Due to the longer-
term nature of the demand calculations from 2030 to 2040, we do not know of any pending
rental housing developments that would likely open during that time period, so we do not sub-
tract any pending units from the 2030 to 2040 estimates.
We identified four market rate projects and one subsidized approved or under construction in
Chaska, containing a total of 686 market rate units and 16 subsidized units. We also identified
two market rate projects in Victoria, totaling 270 units, and one 43 -unit market rate project un-
der construction in Waconia. We also include 106 units at The Otto in Waconia which need to
be leased for the project to reach stabilized occupancy.
By 2040, we find total excess demand for 2,264 market rate rental housing units, 1,268 af-
fordable rental units, and 1,598 subsidized units in Carver County. From 2023 to 2030, we cal-
culate excess demand for 572 market rate units, 623 affordable units, and 780 subsidized units.
We estimate that there will be demand for another 1,692 market rate units, 645 affordable
units, and 819 subsidized units between 2030 and 2040.
The number of units in the development pipeline (approved and under construction) exceed
the estimated demand potential for new market rate rental housing units in the Victoria Sub-
market and capture a majority of the demand potential in Chaska between 2023 and 2030, indi-
cating that the general occupancy market rate rental market in the se submarkets is at risk of
reaching saturation in the short-term. For these pending projects to lease-up successfully, they
will need to attract a greater proportion of households from outside the submarket than pro-
jected in this demand calculation.
271
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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The following graph illustrates the excess demand potential by submarket and rental housing
product type (market rate, affordable, subsidized) from 2023 to 2040. Excess rental housing
demand is projected to be strongest in the Chaska (1,934 total units), Waconia (1,094 total
units), and Chanhassen (974 total units) between 2023 and 2040.
Senior Housing Demand Analysis
The following table summarizes our senior housing demand estimates for Carver County by ser-
vice level in 2023, 2030, and 2040, while the detailed demand tables presented on the subse-
quent pages summarize our senior housing demand calculations by submarket, including de-
mand for market rate active adult owned and rented units, affordable and subsidized active
adult rental units, independent living, assisted living, and memory care.
Assumptions used to estimate demand in 2040 are summarized as follows: 1) the percentages
used to determine income- and asset-qualifications for senior housing are the same proportions
used for the 2030 calculations; 2) all capture rates hold steady for each age group from 2030 to
2040 and no new product is added to the inventory between 2030 and 2040.
• Due to the strong growth projected for the older adult and senior population between 2023
and 2040, strong senior housing demand growth is projected across all service levels in
Carver County.
Carver Chan-
hassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg
-NYA
Mayer-
NG Victoria Waconia Water-
town
Subsidized 65 169 603 38 134 19 51 462 55
Affordable 39 152 598 18 120 29 40 228 45
Market Rate 254 653 733 35 169 40 -115 404 92
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
General Occupancy Rental Housing Demand 2023 -2040
Carver County by Submarket and Product Type
272
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 263
TABLE 72
• Demand for affordable and subsidized senior housing units is projected to increase by 796
units (50% growth), while there will be demand for an additional 409 market rate active
adult units (44%). Service-enhanced senior housing demand is projected to increase 76%
(545 units) in the County between 2023 and 2030.
• Demand growth for market rate active adult and affordable/subsidized housing is expected
to flatten between 2030 and 2040, as the “baby bust” population moves through the age
cohorts targeted by active adult housing.
• The aging “baby boom” population will generate strong demand growth for service -en-
hanced senior housing between 2030 and 2040, particularly for assisted living and memory
care units.
- While we identified strong demand growth for assisted living senior housing, labor chal-
lenges and prospective residents’ preferences for independent living with add-on ser-
vices will capture a portion of the assisted living demand in the County.
The table on the following page summarizes our senior housing demand findings by submarket
and service-level in 2023, 2030, and 2040. Detailed senior housing demand calculations by sub-
market for each service level in 2023 and 2030 are provided on the subsequent pages.
2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult Units 938 1,347 1,384
Owner 413 549 568
Renter 525 798 816
Affordable/Subsidized Units 1,605 2,401 2,315
Subsidized 605 834 795
Affordable 1,000 1,567 1,520
Service-Enhanced Units 714 1,259 2,463
Independent Living 447 719 928
Assisted Living 105 255 902
Memory Care 162 285 633
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
EXCESS SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND BY SERVICE LEVEL
CARVER COUNTY
2023, 2030, 2040
273
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 264
TABLE 73
2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult Units 89 125 130 253 389 401 138 177 178
Owner 31 44 47 104 148 154 62 65 65
Renter 58 81 83 149 241 247 76 112 113
Affordable/Subsidized Units 124 182 180 359 571 552 405 554 533
Subsidized 55 58 52 154 197 184 99 147 145
Affordable 69 124 128 205 374 368 306 407 388
Service-Enhanced Units 51 90 171 186 343 682 114 197 366
Independent Living 32 52 68 94 179 233 80 122 155
Assisted Living 6 14 49 47 99 316 10 34 122
Memory Care 13 24 54 45 65 133 24 41 89
2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult Units 34 51 54 27 60 64 49 68 68
Owner 12 18 19 22 34 35 17 24 25
Renter 22 33 35 5 26 29 32 44 43
Affordable/Subsidized Units 54 74 68 117 202 199 85 120 111
Subsidized 24 28 25 57 89 87 34 44 41
Affordable 30 46 43 60 113 112 51 76 70
Service-Enhanced Units 30 48 89 13 48 112 46 67 118
Independent Living 17 27 35 29 48 61 26 37 47
Assisted Living 5 8 27 -19 -10 27 8 13 36
Memory Care 8 13 27 3 10 24 12 17 35
2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040 2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult Units 154 193 194 114 182 191 78 102 103
Owner 72 89 90 65 92 97 27 36 36
Renter 82 104 104 49 90 94 51 66 67
Affordable/Subsidized Units 144 201 186 234 392 393 84 103 95
Subsidized 43 58 55 92 157 157 47 53 49
Affordable 101 143 131 142 235 236 37 50 46
Service-Enhanced Units 158 240 446 60 144 332 55 83 146
Independent Living 95 127 161 35 73 100 38 53 67
Assisted Living 36 51 141 12 39 153 0 7 32
Memory Care 27 62 144 13 32 79 17 23 47
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
EXCESS SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND BY SERVICE LEVEL
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023, 2030, 2040
Carver Chanhassen Chaska
Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG
Victoria Waconia Watertown
274
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 265
Market Rate Active Adult Senior Housing Demand by Submarket
The following table presents our demand calculations for market rate active adult housing in
each Carver County submarket in 2023 and 2030. The market for active adult housing is com-
prised of older adult (age 55 to 64), younger senior (age 65 to 74) and older senior (age 75+)
households, with market demand weighted most heavily toward older seniors.
In order to arrive at the potential age-, income- and asset-qualified base for market rate active
adult housing, we include all age-qualified households with incomes of $40,000 or more plus
homeowner households with incomes between $30,000 and $39,999 who would qualify with
the proceeds from a home sale. The number of qualifying homeowner households is estimated
by applying the appropriate homeownership rate to each age cohort.
Seniors are willing to pay increasing proportions of their income on alternative housing, begin-
ning with an income allocation of 40% to 50% for market rate active adult senior housing with
little or no services. Older adult and senior households with incomes of $40,000 allocating 40%
of their income toward housing costs could afford monthly rents of $1,333, slightly higher than
the average rent of $1,317 for one-bedroom units in the existing market rate active adult rental
properties in Carver County.
- We estimate there are 14,628 age-, income- and asset-qualified households in Carver
County that comprise the market for active adult housing in 2023, increasing to 18,039
qualified households in 2030.
Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of households age 55
to 64, 8.0% of households age 65 to 74, and 18.0% of households age 75 and older) results in a
demand potential for 898 active adult housing units in 2023 and 1,225 units in 2030.
– These capture rates reduce the total number of age/income/asset-qualified households
to consider only the portion of older adult and senior households who would be willing,
able, and inclined to move to senior housing alternatives, including both owner - and
renter-occupied housing.
We estimate that seniors currently residing outside the submarket will generate 20% to 30% of
the demand for active adult housing in each submarket. Demand from outside the submarket
includes parents of adult children living in the area, individuals who l ive outside the submarket
but have an orientation to the area (i.e. church, doctor), and former residents who desire to re-
turn upon retirement.
Demand for market rate active adult housing is apportioned between ownership and rental
product types. Based on the age distribution of the population, homeownership rates, existing
product, and trends for active adult housing products, we project that 30 % to 50% of the de-
mand will be for owner-occupied active adult housing, depending on submarket, and the re-
maining demand (50% to 70%) will be for active adult rental housing units.
275
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 266
TABLE 74
2023 DEMAND
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$40,000 586 340 135 2,219 1,281 493 1,717 909 345 195 133 55 346 246 83
HHs w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $39,999 +20 12 34 73 56 100 105 107 100 9 16 14 31 38 52
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 85%99%98%91%95%77%81%77%37%96%84%99%74%100%48%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =603 352 168 2,285 1,334 570 1,802 991 382 204 146 69 369 284 108
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =9 28 30 34 107 103 27 79 69 3 12 12 6 23 19
Potential Demand from Submarket =67 244 175 27 48
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket1 +25%30%30%20%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =90 348 250 34 64
(times) % for Owner/Rental Housing x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending MR Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand =
2023 DEMAND continued
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$40,000 292 175 80 861 603 292 725 423 298 399 288 121
HHs w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $39,999 +22 26 26 22 21 57 62 48 91 29 37 33
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 95%98%98%89%93%95%86%69%72%96%91%74%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =313 200 105 881 623 346 778 456 364 427 322 145
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =5 16 19 13 50 62 12 36 65 6 26 26
Potential Demand from Submarket =40 125 114 58
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket1 +20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =50 179 162 78
(times) % for Owner/Rental Housing x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending MR Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand =49 27 511732728265
48 0 0000250
97 27 5117327210765
60%35%65%35%65%40%60%40%
% Rent % Own % Rent% Own % Rent % Own % Rent % Own
31
65%
58
0
58 104 149
% Rent% Own
35%
12
0
12
% Own % Rent
50%50%
125 125
22 5
41
0 366349
62 76
22
% Own % Rent
35%
31
0
% Own% Own % Rent
30%70%
104 244
0 95
Carver Hamburg-NYAChanhassen
---------- continued ----------
Cologne
% Rent
65%
22
0
22
Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
35%65%
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
Chaska
276
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 267
2030 DEMAND
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$45,000 674 479 215 2,275 1,858 794 1,841 1,191 499 268 199 101 402 371 154
HHs w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $44,999 +10 14 31 33 49 110 76 82 100 5 7 12 36 44 53
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 85%99%98%91%95%77%81%77%37%96%84%99%74%100%48%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =683 493 245 2,305 1,905 879 1,903 1,254 536 273 205 113 429 415 179
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =10 39 44 35 152 158 29 100 96 4 16 20 6 33 32
Potential Demand from Submarket =94 345 225 41 72
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket1 +25%30%30%20%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =125 493 322 51 96
(times) % for Owner/Rental Housing x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending MR Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand =
2030 DEMAND continued
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$45,000 323 243 133 898 708 414 1,074 646 447 453 381 179
HHs w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $44,999 +15 16 25 11 19 61 36 29 81 24 28 36
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 95%98%98%89%93%95%86%69%72%96%91%74%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =337 259 158 908 726 472 1,105 666 505 476 406 206
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%1.5%8.0%18.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =5 21 28 14 58 85 17 53 91 7 33 37
Potential Demand from Submarket =54 157 161 77
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket1 +20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =68 224 230 102
(times) % for Owner/Rental Housing x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending MR Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand =
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
90 36 6624448910492
48 0 0000300
138 36 6624448913492
60%35%65%35%65%40%60%40%
% Rent % Own % Rent% Own % Rent % Own % Rent % Own
Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
112 18 33 34 26448114824165
49 0 0 0 3600010496
161 18 33 34 624481148345161
50%35%65%35%65%35%65%30%70%50%
% Rent % Own % Rent % Own % Rent% Own % Rent % Own % Rent % Own
2023 & 2030
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy).
TABLE continued
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING DEMAND
1 We estimate that 20% to 30% of the demand will come from outside each submarket
277
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 268
From the demand potential, we subtract existing and pending market rate active adult units at
95% occupancy. We identified two active adult owned projects, totaling 192 units, and seven
market rate active adult rental projects, totaling 474 units. After accounting for a 5% vacancy
rate and adjusting the number of competitive units based on location and format, we subtract
63 active adult owned units and 253 market rate rental units.
- In total, we find excess demand for 413 market rate active adult ownership units and
525 market rate active adult rental units in 2023.
We then incorporate pending active adult owned units (Del Webb) along with units at Lake
Place in Chanhassen and AbleLight Village in Victoria which need to be leased for those facilities
to reach equilibrium and subtract the total from the 2030 demand potential.
- Adjusting for inflation, and following the same methodology, we project that excess
demand will increase to 549 active adult ownership units and 798 market rate active
adult rental units in 2030.
The following chart illustrates our 2030 excess market rate active adult demand estimates by
submarket in Carver County. As shown, excess demand is anticipated in all submarkets, with
the strongest excess demand in the Chanhassen, Victoria, Waconia, and Chaska Submarkets.
36
92
89
24
34
18
65
148
44
66
90
104
44
26
33
112
241
81
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Watertown
Waconia
Victoria
Mayer-NG
Hamburg-NYA
Cologne
Chaska
Chanhassen
Carver
Units
2030 Excess Market Rate Active Adult Demand by
Product Type and Submarket
Own
Rent
278
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 269
Affordable/Subsidized Active Adult Senior Housing Demand
The table on the following pages presents our demand calculations for affordable (30% to 60%
AMI) and subsidized (30% AMI or less) active adult senior housing in Carver County by submar-
ket in 2023 and 2030. While the methodology used to calculate demand for affordable housing
closely mirrors the methodology used to calculate demand for market rate housing, we make
adjustments to more precisely quantify demand among this market segment. The following
points summarize these adjustments:
• Income-Qualifications: In order to arrive at the potential age and income-qualified base for
low-income and affordable housing, we include all senior households age 55 and older that
qualify for the income guidelines for two-person households in 2023. Households earning
between 30% and 60% of AMI are generally candidates for affordable housing, while house-
holds earning less than 30% AMI are typically a market for deep -subsidy housing. The in-
come-restriction in Carver County for a two-person household at 30% AMI is $29,820 and
the income-restriction for a two-person household at 60% AMI is $59,640.
• Capture Rates: Households in a need-based situation (either requiring services or financial
assistance) more readily move to housing alternatives than those not in need -based situa-
tions. Based on our experience in market feasibility for affordable and subsidized seni or
housing, along with our analysis of demographic and competitive market factors in the
County, we apply a conservative 25% capture rate to the age/income-qualified market to
arrive at a total potential demand.
Using the methodology described above results in a demand potential for a total of 1,373 af-
fordable and subsidized active adult housing units in 2023. An additional proportion is added
for senior households that would move into affordable active adult housing in the submarket
who currently reside outside the area., ranging from 20% to 30% depending on the submarket.
- In total, we estimate that there is total demand potential for 1,910 affordable and subsi-
dized active adult housing units in the County in 2023.
Based on the existing and projected distribution of households with incomes below $59,640,
we estimate the proportion of demand for affordable and subsidized units. These proportions
vary by submarket, but an estimated 39% of the demand potential in the County will be for sub-
sidized units, ranging from 30% in the Victoria Submarket to 44% in the Carver, Cologne, and
Waconia Submarkets. The remaining 61% will be for affordable units, ranging from 56% in the
Carver, Cologne, and Waconia Submarkets to 70% in the Victoria Submarket.
- We estimate that there is total demand for 753 subsidized units and 1,156 affordable
units in Carver County in 2023.
279
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 270
TABLE 75
2023 Demand Analysis
Submarket
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
# of Households w/ Incomes of <$59,640 1 159 73 140 382 253 445 561 459 430 50 55 66 159 142 186
Total Potential Market Base 372 1,080 1,450 171 487
(times) Ptc. Needing/Desiring Affordable Hsg x 25%25%25%25%25%
(equals) Demand Potential =93 270 363 43 122
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket2 +25%30%30%20%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =124 386 518 53 162
(times) % Affordable or Subsidized x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending Units 3 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Units =
2023 Demand Analysis continued
Submarket
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
# of Households w/ Incomes of <$59,640 1 108 92 104 99 101 202 286 174 351 126 148 140
Total Potential Market Base 304 402 811 414
(times) Ptc. Needing/Desiring Affordable Hsg x 25%25%25%25%
(equals) Demand Potential =76 101 203 104
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket2 +20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =95 144 290 138
(times) % Affordable or Subsidized x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending Units 3 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Units =142 47 3734514310192
20 0 540100035
162 47 91346143101127
56%34%66%36%64%30%70%44%
% Aff % Sub % Aff% Sub % Aff % Sub % Aff % Sub
Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
0 0
55 69 205
57 106
113 0
99 306
% Sub
44%
24
0
24
% Sub % Aff
41%59%
212 306
0 46
57 60
Carver Hamburg-NYAChanhassen
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
% Aff
60%
231
26
% Sub
40%
154
Chaska
---------- continued ----------
% Aff
56%
30
0
30
Cologne
0
154
% Sub % Aff
44%56%
55 69
% Sub % Aff
35%65%
280
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 271
2030 Demand Analysis
Submarket
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
# of Households w/ Incomes of <$68,508 1 144 191 213 302 678 691 588 678 603 52 84 102 188 244 312
Total Potential Market Base 548 1,671 1,869 238 744
(times) Ptc. Needing/Desiring Affordable Hsg x 25%25%25%25%25%
(equals) Demand Potential =137 418 467 60 186
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket2 +25%30%30%20%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =183 597 668 74 248
(times) % Affordable or Subsidized x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending Units 3 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Units =
2030 Demand Analysis continued
Submarket
Age of Householder 55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
# of Households w/ Incomes of <$68,508 1 104 148 164 77 195 292 387 343 522 116 174 181
Total Potential Market Base 416 564 1,252 471
(times) Ptc. Needing/Desiring Affordable Hsg x 25%25%25%25%
(equals) Demand Potential =104 141 313 118
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket2 +20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand Potential =130 201 447 157
(times) % Affordable or Subsidized x
(equals) Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing & Pending Units 3 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Units =
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
235 53 50447658143157
20 0 540100035
255 53 104448658143192
57%34%66%34%66%29%71%43%
% Aff % Sub % Aff% Sub % Aff % Sub % Aff % Sub
407 28 46 89 11358124197374147
0 0 0 0 4600026113
407 28 46 89 15958124197400260
61%38%62%36%64%32%68%33%67%39%
% Aff % Sub % Aff % Sub % Aff% Sub % Aff % Sub % Aff % Sub
3 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy).
2 We estimate that a portion of demand will come from outside each submarket (ranging from 20% to 30%)
1 Based on 2-person HH at 60% AMI; 2030 calculations adjusted for inflation (2.0% annually).
WatertownWaconiaVictoriaMayer-NG
TABLE continued
AFFORDABLE/SUBSIDIZED SENIOR RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA
281
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 272
Next, we subtract existing and pending affordable and subsidized units at 95% occupancy. We
identified four subsidized facilities, totaling 272 units, and six affordable projects, totaling 196
units. After accounting for a 5% vacancy rate and adjusting the number of competitive units
based on location and format, we subtract 141 subsidized units and 148 affordable units.
- In total, we find excess demand for 605 subsidized units and 1,000 affordable units in
2023.
To calculate demand in 2030, we increase the income-qualifications to account for inflation and
would incorporate pending affordable senior housing units. However, we did not identify any
affordable or subsidized senior housing units under construction or approved in Carver County.
- Following the same methodology as outlined for 2023, we project that excess demand
will increase to 834 subsidized units and 1,567 affordable units in 2030.
The following chart illustrates our 2030 excess affordable and subsidized senior housing de-
mand estimates by submarket in Carver County. As shown, excess demand is anticipated in all
submarkets, with the strongest excess demand in the Chanhassen, Chaska, and Waconia Sub-
markets.
53
157
58
44
89
28
147
197
58
50
235
143
76
113
46
407
374
124
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750
Watertown
Waconia
Victoria
Mayer-NG
Hamburg-NYA
Cologne
Chaska
Chanhassen
Carver
Units
2030 Excess Affordable/Subsidized Senior Housing
Demand by Product Type and Submarket
Subsidized
Affordable
282
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 273
Demand for Independent Living Senior Housing
The table on the following pages presents our demand calculations for independent living sen-
ior housing for each of the Carver County submarkets in 2023 and 2030. This analysis focuses
on the potential private pay/market rate demand for independent living units.
To arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for independent senior housing, we include
all senior households with incomes of $40,000 or more and homeowners with incomes be-
tween $30,000 and $40,000 who would qualify with the proceeds from a home sale (this pro-
portion was estimated based on the homeownership rates for each age cohort).
Senior householders with incomes of $40,000 allocating 65% of their income toward base hous-
ing cost could afford beginning rents of approximately $2,167. Householders with incomes of
$35,000 allocating 60% of their income toward rent and using the proceeds from a home sale
could afford rents of $2,369 per month. These rents are similar to monthly fees being charged
for studio and one-bedroom independent living units in Carver County.
- We estimate the number of age/income/asset-qualified households in the County to be
6,966 households in 2023, increasing to 9,621 households in 2030.
Demand for independent living senior housing is need-driven, which reduces the qualified mar-
ket to only the portion of seniors who need some assistance. Thus, the age/income-qualified
base is multiplied by the percentage of seniors who need some assistance with at least three
Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs), but not six or more Activities of Daily Living (ADLs)
and IADLs, as these frailer seniors would need the level of care found in service-intensive as-
sisted living.
According to the Summary Health Statistics of the U.S. Population: National Health Interview
Survey (conducted by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services), the percentage of
seniors having limitation in ADLs (bathing, dressing, toileting, transfer ring, eating) and IADLs
(using the telephone, shopping, food preparation, housekeeping, laundry, transportation, tak-
ing medication, handling finances) are as follows:
Limitation in ADLs & IADLs
Age ADLs IADLs
65-74 years 3.3% 6.3%
75+ years 11.0% 20.0%
It is most likely that seniors who need assistance with ADLs also need assistance with multiple
IADLs and are more likely to be candidates for service-intensive assisted living. The prime can-
didates for independent living are seniors needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs.
We derive the capture rate for independent living housing by subtracting the percentage of
seniors needing assistance with ADLs from those needing assistance with IADLs, which equates
to 3.0% of seniors age 65 to 74 and 9.0% of seniors age 75+.
283
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 274
TABLE 76
2023 Demand Analysis
Submarket
Age of Householder 65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$40,000 340 135 1,281 493 909 345 133 55 246 83
(plus) HHs w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $39,999 +12 34 56 100 107 100 16 14 38 52
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 99%98%95%77%77%37%84%99%100%48%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =352 168 1,334 570 991 382 146 69 284 108
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%
(equals) Demand Potential =5 28 20 94 15 63 2 11 4 18
Potential Demand from Submarket Residents =
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket 1 +
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 3 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Independent Living Units =
2023 Demand Analysis continued
Submarket
Age of Householder 65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$40,000 175 80 603 292 423 298 288 121
(plus) HHs w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $39,999 +26 26 21 57 48 91 37 33
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 98%98%93%95%69%72%91%74%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =200 105 623 346 456 364 322 145
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%
(equals) Demand Potential =3 17 9 57 7 60 5 24
Potential Demand from Submarket Residents =
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket 1 +
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Independent Living Units =
INDEPENDENT LIVING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
ChaskaCarverChanhassen Hamburg-NYACologne
0
17
0
29
20%
17
25%
29
30%
33 114 78 14 22
12
32
69
94
31
80
25%
44
30%
163
30%
111
20%30%25%
26 95 95 38
0 0 60 0
26 95 35 38
Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
20 66 67 29
---------- continued ----------
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 275
2030 Demand Analysis
Submarket
Age of Householder 65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$45,000 479 215 1,858 794 1,191 499 199 101 371 154
(plus) HHs w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $44,999 +14 31 49 110 82 100 7 12 44 53
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 99%98%95%77%77%37%84%99%100%48%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =493 245 1,905 879 1,254 536 205 113 415 179
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%
(equals) Demand Potential =7 40 29 145 19 88 3 19 6 30
Potential Demand from Submarket Residents =
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket 1 +
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Independent Living Units =
2030 Demand Analysis continued
Submarket
Age of Householder 65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+65-74 75+
HHs w/ Incomes of >$45,000 243 133 708 414 646 447 381 179
(plus) HHs w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $44,999 +16 25 19 61 29 81 28 36
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 98%98%93%95%69%72%91%74%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base =259 158 726 472 666 505 406 206
(times) Potential Capture Rate x 1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%1.5%16.5%
(equals) Demand Potential =4 26 11 78 10 83 6 34
Potential Demand from Submarket Residents =
(plus) Demand from Outside Submarket 1 +
(equals) Total Demand Potential =
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 2 -
(equals) Excess Demand for Independent Living Units =
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Carver
TABLE continued
INDEPENDENT LIVING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
Chaska
25%
Chanhassen Cologne Hamburg-NYA
0
48 174 107 22 36
20%
27 48
25%30%30%
20%30%30%25%
Victoria Waconia Watertown
52 179 122 27 48
12 69
2 Existing and pending units are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy).
30 89 93 40
1 We estimate that a portion of demand will come from outside each Submarket (ranging from 20% to 30%, depending on Submarket).
37 127 133
37 127 73 53
64 248 153
0 0 60 0
31 0
Mayer-NG
53
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 276
For the purposes of this report and understanding that many seniors do not view senior hous-
ing as an alternative retirement destination but a supportive living option only when they can
no longer live independently, we have reduced the potential capture rates for the 65 to 74 age
group to 1.5% while increasing the capture rate of the 75 and older age group to 16.5%. Multi-
plying the senior household base by these capture rates results in demand potential for 443 in-
dependent living units in 2023 and 638 units in 2030.
We estimate that seniors currently residing outside the submarket will generate 20% to 30% of
the demand for active adult housing in each submarket. Together, the demand from seniors
plus demand from seniors who would relocate to the area totals 619 independent living units in
2023 and 891 units in 2030.
Next, existing and pending units are subtracted from the demand potential. We identified six
facilities with a total of 363 independent living units in Carver County. Overall, we subtract a
total of 172 competitive units from the demand potential after accounting for a 5% vacancy
rate and adjusting for location and format. We did not identify any independent living senior
housing units pending in Carver County to subtract from the 2030 demand potential.
- After subtracting existing units, we find excess demand for a total of 447 independent
living units in the County in 2023, increasing to 719 units in 2030.
The following chart illustrates our 2023 and 2030 excess independent living demand estimates
by submarket in Carver County. As shown, by 2030, excess demand is projected to be strongest
in the Victoria, Chanhassen, and Chaska Submarkets. The Chanhassen Submarket is projected
to experience the largest increase in excess demand (85 units) between 2023 and 2030.
53
73
127
37
48
27
122
179
52
38
35
95
26
29
17
80
94
32
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Watertown
Waconia
Victoria
Mayer-NG
Hamburg-NYA
Cologne
Chaska
Chanhassen
Carver
Units
Excess Independent Living Demand by
Product Type and Submarket in 2023 and 2030
2023
2030
286
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Assisted Living Demand Estimate
The table on the following pages presents our demand calculations for assisted living in Carver
County by submarket in 2023 and 2030. This analysis focuses on the potential private pay/mar-
ket rate demand for assisted living units.
The availability of more intensive support services such as meals, housekeeping and personal
care at assisted living facilities usually attracts older, frailer seniors. According to the Overview
of Assisted Living (which is a collaborative research project by the American Association of
Homes and Services for the Aging, the American Seniors Housing Association, National Center
for Assisted Living, and National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry),
the average age of residents in freestanding assisted living facilities is 87 years.
The age-qualified market for assisted living is defined as seniors ages 75 and over, as we esti-
mate that of the half of demand from seniors under age 87, almost all would be over age 75. In
2023, there are an estimated 5,147 seniors ages 75 and over in the County, and we project that
this number will increase to 7,789 by 2030.
Demand for assisted living housing is need-driven, which reduces the qualified market to only
the portion of seniors who need assistance. According to a study completed by the Centers for
Disease Control and the National Center for Health Statistics, about 35% of seniors need assis-
tance with everyday activities (from 25.5% of 75-to-79-year-olds, to 33.6% of 80-to-84-year-
olds and 51.6% of 85+ year-olds).
- Applying these percentages to the senior population yields a potential assisted living
market of an estimated 1,779 seniors in the County in 2023 and 2,627 seniors in 2030.
Due to the supportive nature of assisted living, most daily essentials are included in monthly
fees which allow seniors to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on housing with basic
services. Therefore, the second step in determining the potential d emand for assisted living is
to identify the income-qualified market based on a senior’s ability to pay the monthly rent.
We consider seniors in households with incomes of $40,000 or greater to be income -qualified
for assisted living senior housing in the County. Households with incomes of $40,000 could af-
ford monthly assisted living fees of $3,000 by allocating 90% of their income toward the fees.
According to the Overview of Assisted Living, the average arrival income of assisted living resi-
dents was $27,260, while the average annual assisted living fee was $37,281 ($3,107/month).
This data highlights that seniors are spending down assets to live in assisted living and avoid in-
stitutional care. Thus, in addition to households with incomes of $40,000 or greater, there is a
substantial base of senior households with lower incomes who income -qualify based on assets
– their homes, in particular.
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TABLE 77
2023 AL DEMAND
Age Group 75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+
People 202 106 68 588 281 299 475 267 248 77 41 30 138 83 106
(times) Percent Needing Assistance1 x 25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%
Number Needing Assitance =52 36 35 150 95 154 121 90 128 20 14 15 35 28 55
Total People Needing Assistance 122 399 339 49 118
(times) Percent Income-Qualified2 75%69%47%72%41%
Total potential market =92 276 159 35 48
(times) Percent living alone x 30%53%61%27%57%
Age/income-qualified singles =28 146 97 10 28
(plus) Demand from couples (12%)³+4 20 13 1 4
Age/income-qualified market =31 166 110 11 31
(times) Potential penetration rate4 x 35%35%35%35%35%
Potential demand =11 58 39 4 11
(plus) Proportion from outside area +25%30%30%20%25%
Total potential AL demand =15 83 55 5 15
(minus) Existing & pending AL units 5 -9 36 45 0 34
Excess market rate AL demand =6 47 10 5 -19
2023 AL DEMAND
Age Group 75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+
People 130 63 50 319 195 152 332 242 305 161 87 102
(times) Percent Needing Assistance1 x 25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%
Number Needing Assitance =33 21 26 81 66 78 85 81 157 41 29 53
Total People Needing Assistance 80 225 323 123
(times) Percent Income-Qualified2 71%82%61%63%
Total potential market =57 185 199 78
(times) Percent living alone x 30%34%56%52%
Age/income-qualified singles =17 63 111 40
(plus) Demand from couples (12%)³+2 9 15 6
Age/income-qualified market =19 71 126 46
(times) Potential penetration rate4 x 35%35%35%35%
Potential demand =7 25 44 16
(plus) Proportion from outside area +20%30%30%25%
Total potential AL demand =8 36 63 21
(minus) Existing & pending AL units 5 -0 0 51 21
Excess market rate AL demand =8 36 12 0
Waconia Watertown
---------- continued ----------
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA
Mayer-NG Victoria
288
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 279
2030 AL DEMAND
Age Group 75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+
People 290 167 105 984 550 394 745 407 307 119 71 45 270 143 140
(times) Percent Needing Assistance1 x 25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%
Number Needing Assitance =74 56 54 251 185 203 190 137 158 30 24 23 69 48 72
Total People Needing Assistance 184 639 485 77 189
(times) Percent Income-Qualified2 77%70%47%76%42%
Total potential market =143 449 228 59 80
(times) Percent living alone x 30%53%61%27%57%
Age/income-qualified singles =43 238 139 16 45
(plus) Demand from couples (12%)³+6 32 19 2 6
Age/income-qualified market =49 270 158 18 52
(times) Potential penetration rate4 x 35%35%35%35%35%
Potential demand =17 95 55 6 18
(plus) Proportion from outside area +25%30%30%20%25%
Total potential AL demand =23 135 79 8 24
(minus) Existing & pending AL units 5 -9 36 45 0 34
Excess market rate AL demand =14 99 34 8 -10
2030 AL DEMAND
Age Group 75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+75-79 80-84 85+
People 163 116 69 488 261 217 536 342 394 233 129 104
(times) Percent Needing Assistance1 x 25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%25.5%33.6%51.6%
Number Needing Assitance =42 39 36 124 88 112 137 115 203 59 43 54
Total People Needing Assistance 116 324 455 156
(times) Percent Income-Qualified2 74%81%62%66%
Total potential market =86 264 284 103
(times) Percent living alone x 30%34%56%52%
Age/income-qualified singles =26 90 159 54
(plus) Demand from couples (12%)³+4 12 22 7
Age/income-qualified market =29 102 181 61
(times) Potential penetration rate4 x 35%35%35%35%
Potential demand =10 36 63 21
(plus) Proportion from outside area +20%30%30%25%
Total potential AL demand =13 51 90 28
(minus) Existing & pending AL units 5 -0 0 51 21
Excess market rate AL demand =13 51 39 7
---------- continued ----------
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA
TABLE continued
Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
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Notes:
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE continued
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
3 The Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA, ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted living residents are couples.
4 We estimate that 65% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less advanced senior housing with the
assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility.
5 Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy, minus units estimated to be occupied by Elderly Waiver residents.
1 The percentage of seniors unable to perform or having difficulting with ADLs, based on the publication Health, United States, 2018 Health and Aging Chartbook,
conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Center for Health Statistics.
2 Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could afford monthly rents of $3,000+ per month) plus 40% of the estimated owner households with
incomes below $40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home-equity, in order to live in assisted living housing).
290
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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An estimated 67% of age 75 and older households in Carver County are homeowners and the
estimated median sale price for older homes in Carver County in 2023 is $395,000 (through Oc-
tober 2023). Seniors selling their homes for the median price would generate roughly $371,300
in proceeds after selling costs. Using an average monthly fee of $4,000, these proceeds would
last approximately roughly eight years (100 months) in assisted living housing, which is much
longer than the average length of stay in assisted living (20 months according to the Overview
of Assisted Living).
For the age groups in the preceding table, we estimate the income-qualified percentage to be
all seniors in households with incomes at or above $40,000 (who could afford beginning
monthly rents of $3,000+ per month) plus 40% of the estimated seniors in owner households
with incomes below $40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home-equity, to live in as-
sisted living housing). This results in a total potential market for 1,129 units from the County as
of 2023.
Because the vast majority of assisted living residents are single (88% according to the Overview
of Assisted Living), our demand methodology multiplies the total potential market by the per-
centage of seniors age 75 and older in the County living alone, or 52% based on Census data.
This results in a total base of 540 age/income-qualified singles. The Overview of Assisted Living
found that 12% of residents in assisted living were couples. Including couples results in a total
of 613 age/income-qualified seniors needing assistance in the County in 2023.
We estimate that 65% of the qualified market needing significant assistance with ADLs could
either remain in their homes or less service-intensive senior housing with the assistance of a
family member or home health care or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facil-
ity. The remaining 35% could be served by assisted living housing.
– Applying this market penetration rate of 35% results in demand for 215 assisted living
units in 2023.
A portion of demand for assisted living units in the County (20% to 30%, depending on submar-
ket) will come from outside the area. Account for demand from outside each submarket results
in total potential demand for 301 assisted living units in 2023.
Next, existing and pending assisted living units are subtracted from overall demand. There are
12 existing facilities providing assisted living, totaling 497 assisted living units. However, we ad-
just the number of competitive units based on location and format and exclude estimated units
occupied by low-income seniors utilizing Elderly Waivers (20%).
– After subtracting the existing competitive units (minus a 7% vacancy factor) from the to-
tal potential demand equals excess demand potential for 105 assisted living units in the
County in 2023.
291
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
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We did not identify any pending assisted living projects in the County to subtract from the 2030
demand potential. Following the same methodology as the 2023 demand calculations and ad-
justing for inflation, we find that excess demand increases to 255 assisted living units in the
County in 2030.
The following chart illustrates our 2023 and 2030 excess assisted living demand estimates by
submarket in Carver County. As shown, by 2030, excess demand is projected to be strongest in
the Chanhassen, Victoria, and Waconia Submarkets, and the Chanhassen Submarket is pro-
jected to experience the largest increase in excess demand (52 units) between 2023 and 2030.
7
39
51
13
-10
8
34
99
14
0
12
36
8
-19
5
10
47
6
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Watertown
Waconia
Victoria
Mayer-NG
Hamburg-NYA
Cologne
Chaska
Chanhassen
Carver
Units
Excess Assisted Living Demand by
Product Type and Submarket in 2023 and 2030
2023
2030
292
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 283
Demand for Memory Care Senior Housing
The table on the following pages presents our demand calculations for memory care housing in
Carver County by submarket in 2023 and 2030. Demand is calculated by starting with the esti-
mated senior (ages 65+) population in 2023 and multiplying by the incidence rate of Alz-
heimer’s/dementia among the age cohorts in this population.
- This yields a potential market of 1,472 seniors in the County. We anticipate that this
number will climb to 2,092 in 2030.
According to data from the National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all individuals with
memory care impairments are a market for memory care housing units. This figure considers
that seniors in the early stages of dementia will be able to live independe ntly with the care of a
spouse or other family member, while those in the latter stages of dementia will require inten-
sive medical care that would only be available in skilled care facilities.
- Applying this figure to the estimated population with memory impairments yields a po-
tential market of about 368 seniors in the County in 2023 and 523 seniors in 2030.
Because of the staff-intensive nature of dementia care, typical monthly fees for this type of
housing start at about $4,500. Although some of the seniors will have high monthly incomes,
most will be willing to spend down assets and/or receive financial as sistance from family mem-
bers to afford memory care housing.
Based on our review of senior household incomes, homeownership rates, and home sale data,
we estimate that approximately 51% of all seniors in the County have incomes and/or assets to
sufficiently cover the costs for memory care housing in 2023 (ranges from 31% in the Hamburg-
Norwood Young America Submarket to 67% in the Victoria Submarket). These estimates take
into account married couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs and
allows for a sufficient income for the other spouse to live independently.
Multiplying the potential market by the percent income - and asset-qualified results in a total of
188 income-qualified seniors in the County in 2023, increasing to 279 seniors in 2030. An addi-
tional proportion is added for seniors that would move into memory care housing who cur-
rently reside outside the area, ranging from 20% to 30%, depending on the submarket.
- In total, we estimate that there is total demand potential for 263 memory care senior
housing units in the County in 2023, increasing to 390 units in 2030.
293
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 284
TABLE 78
2023 Memory Care Demand
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
65 to 74 Population 754 2,475 1,984 291 552 427 1,220 1,004 604
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =38 124 99 15 28 21 61 50 30
75 to 84 Population 308 869 741 118 221 193 514 574 248
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =43 122 104 17 31 27 72 80 35
85+ Population 68 299 248 30 106 50 152 305 102
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =24 105 87 11 37 18 53 107 36
(equals) Total Population with Dementia 105 350 290 42 96 66 186 237 101
(times) Pct. Needing Memory Care Assistance x 25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care =26 88 72 10 24 16 47 59 25
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified 2 x 62%56%35%61%31%58%67%51%51%
(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base =16 49 25 6 7 10 31 30 13
(plus) Demand from Outside the Submarket 3 +25%30%30%20%25%20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand for Memory Care Units =22 70 36 8 10 12 45 43 17
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 4 -9 25 12 0 7 0 18 30 0
(equals) Excess Memory Care Demand Potential =13 45 24 8 3 12 27 13 17
MEMORY CARE DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
---------- continued ----------
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2030 Memory Care Demand
Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne Hamburg-NYA Mayer-NG Victoria Waconia Watertown
65 to 74 Population 1,037 3,688 2,569 382 776 540 1,409 1,456 719
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =52 184 128 19 39 27 70 73 36
75 to 84 Population 457 1,534 1,153 191 413 279 749 878 362
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =64 215 161 27 58 39 105 123 51
85+ Population 105 394 307 45 140 69 217 394 104
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate1 x 35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%
(equals) Est. Senior Pop. with Dementia =37 138 107 16 49 24 76 138 36
(equals) Total Population with Dementia 153 537 397 62 146 90 251 334 123
(times) Pct. Needing Memory Care Assistance x 25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care =38 134 99 15 36 23 63 83 31
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified 2 x 64%58%37%65%34%59%69%52%55%
(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base =24 78 37 10 12 13 44 43 17
(plus) Demand from Outside the Submarket 3 +25%30%30%20%25%20%30%30%25%
(equals) Total Demand for Memory Care Units =33 112 53 13 17 17 62 62 23
(minus) Existing and Pending Units 4 -9 47 12 0 7 0 0 30 0
(equals) Excess Memory Care Demand Potential =24 65 41 13 10 17 62 32 23
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
¹ Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2021)
4 Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy, minus units estimated to be occupied by Elderly Waiver residents.
2 Income greater than $60,000 in 2023 and greater than $65,000 in 2030, plus some lower-income homeowners.
3 We estimate that a portion of demand will come from outside each Submarket (ranging from 20% to 30%, depending on Submarket)
TABLE continued
MEMORY CARE DEMAND
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 & 2030
295
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Next, existing and pending memory care units are subtracted from overall demand. There are
11 existing facilities providing 237 memory care units. However, we adjust the number of com-
petitive units based on location and format and exclude estimated units occupied by low -in-
come seniors utilizing Elderly Waivers (15%).
– After subtracting the existing competitive units (minus a 7% vacancy factor) from the to-
tal potential demand equals excess demand potential for 162 memory care units in the
County in 2023.
Next, we include pending competitive memory care units in Chanhassen, adjusted for location,
format, equilibrium, and elderly waivers. Following the same methodology as the 2023 de-
mand calculations and adjusting for inflation, we find that excess demand increases to 285
memory care units in the County in 2030.
The following chart illustrates our 2023 and 2030 excess memory care demand estimates by
submarket in Carver County. As shown, by 2030, excess demand is projected to be strongest in
the Chanhassen, Victoria, and Chaska Submarkets, while the Victoria Submarket is projected to
experience the largest increase in excess demand (35 units) between 2023 and 2030.
23
32
62
17
10
13
41
65
24
17
13
27
12
3
8
24
45
13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Watertown
Waconia
Victoria
Mayer-NG
Hamburg-NYA
Cologne
Chaska
Chanhassen
Carver
Units
Excess Memory Care Demand by
Product Type and Submarket in 2023 and 2030
2023
2030
296
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 287
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Introduction
This section of the report summarizes calculated demand for specific housing products in
Carver County and recommends development concepts to meet the housing needs forecast for
the County. All recommendations are based on findings of the Comprehensive Housing Needs
Analysis. The following topics are covered.
A general profile on how demographic trends impact housing demand
Summary of the housing demand findings
Development concept recommendations to meet projected demand , and
An overview of challenges and opportunities as they pertain to housing development in
Carver County
297
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Demographic Profile and Housing Demand
The demographic profile of a community affects housing demand and the types of housing that
are needed. The various housing life-cycle stages can generally be described as follows.
Entry-level householders
•Often prefer to rent basic, inexpensive apartments
•Will often “double-up” with roommates in apartment setting
•Usually singles or couples without children in their early 20's
First-time homebuyers and move-up renters
•Often married or cohabitating couples in their mid -20's or 30's, some with
children, but most are without children
•Prefer to purchase modestly-priced single-family homes or rent more
upscale apartments
Move-up homebuyers
•Typically families with children where householders are in their late 30's to
mid-40's
•Prefer to purchase newer, larger, and therefore more expensive single-
family homes
Empty-nesters (persons whose children have grown and left home) and
never-nesters (persons who never have children)
•Generally couples in their 50's or 60's
•Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
•Some will move to alternative lower-maintenance housing products
Younger independent seniors
•Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
•Will often move (at least part of the year) to retirement havens in the
Sunbelt and desire to reduce responsibilities for housing maintenance
•Generally in their late 60's or 70's
Older seniors
•May need to move out of their single-family home due to physical and/or
health constraints or a desire to reduce their responsibilities for upkeep
and maintenance
•Typically older seniors in their early-80's or older
298
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 289
Demand for housing can come from several sources including household growth, changes in
housing preferences, and replacement need. Household growth necessitates the construction
of new housing unless there is enough vacant housing available to absorb the increase in
households. Demand is also affected by shifting demographics such as the aging population,
which dictates the type of housing preferred. New housing to meet replacement need may also
be required when existing units no longer meet the needs of the population and when renova-
tion is not feasible because the structure is physically or functionally obsolete.
Demographic Trends
Demographic shifts are a significant factor influencing housing demand. Household growth and
formation are critical (natural growth, immigration, etc.), as well as household type, size, age of
householders, incomes, etc.
Economy & Job Growth
The economy and housing market are intertwined, and housing market growth often depends
on job growth (or the prospect of). Jobs generate income growth which results in the for-
mation of more households and can stimulate household turnover. Historically low unemploy-
ment rates have driven both existing home purchases and new -home purchases.
Restrained job growth, or negative growth, can lead to slow or diminishing household growth,
reducing housing demand. Additionally, slow income growth results in fewer move-up buyers
which results in diminished housing turnover across all income brackets.
Age Group
Student
Housing
Rental
Housing
First-time
Home Buyer
Move-up
Home Buyer
2nd Home
Buyer
Downsizer/
Rightsizer
Senior
Housing
18 to 24 18 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
55+ and 65+
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE & HOUSING DEMAND
18 to 34
65 to 79
25 to 39
30 to 49
40 to 64
55 to 74
299
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 290
Consumer Choice
A variety of factors contribute to consumer choice and preferences. Many times, a change in
family status is the primary factor for a change in housing type (i.e. growing families, empty -
nest families, etc.). However, housing demand is also generated from the turnover of existing
households who decide to move for a range of reasons. Some households may want to move-
up, downsize, change their tenure status (i.e. renter to owner or vice versa), or simply move to
a new location.
Supply (Existing Housing Stock)
The existing housing stock plays a crucial component in the demand for new housing. There are
a variety of unique housing types and styles, not all of which are desirable to today’s consum-
ers. The age of the housing stock is an important component for housing demand, as communi-
ties with aging housing have higher demand for remodeling services, replacement new con-
struction, or new home construction as the current inventory does not provide the supply that
consumers seek. Pent-up demand may also exist if supply is unavailable as householders post-
pone a move until new housing product becomes available.
Financing
Household income is the fundamental measure that dictates what a householder can afford to
pay for housing costs. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than 30% of its annual
income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of their income for
housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty afford-
ing necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care.
The ability of buyers to obtain mortgage financing is becoming increasingly challenging as re-
cent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has decreased affordability for buyers. While
still low relative to the past 40+ years, rising interest rates combined with increased housing
costs have decreased affordability in 2023. Mortgage rates more than doubled between early
2022 and late 2023, increasing mortgage payments by more than 30%.
Mobility
Housing demand in can be somewhat fluid between communities in the County, and demand
will be impacted by development activity and housing availability in area communities. Much
of the housing demand in a community is generated by the turnover of existing households.
Satisfying future demand will be highly dependent on the availability of suitable housing op-
tions in each of the communities located in Carver County.
300
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 291
Housing Demand Summary
The following table summarizes demand calculated by housing product type in Carver County
from 2023 to 2040, while the charts on the subsequent pages illustrate demand for each sub-
market in the County.
Housing demand can be somewhat fluid between submarkets and communities, and satisfying
the anticipated demand will be highly dependent on the availability of suitable housing options
catering to a variety of household types, age groups, and income levels. Additionally, housing
demand in the County will be impacted by development activity in nearby areas, notably in
communities surrounding Carver County as well as the southwest portion of the Twin Cities
Metro Area.
TABLE 79
For-Sale Units
Detached Single-Family Units
Multifamily Units*
General Occupancy Rental Units
Market Rate
Affordable^
Subsidized^
Total General Occupancy Housing Units
2023 2030 2040
Market Rate Active Adult 938 1,347 1,384
Owner-Occupied 413 549 568
Renter-Occupied 525 798 816
Affordable & Subsidized Senior Housing 1,605 2,401 2,315
Subsidized^605 834 795
Affordable^1,000 1,567 1,520
Service-Enhanced Senior Housing 714 1,259 2,463
Independent Living (IL)447 719 928
Assisted Living (AL)105 255 902
Memory Care (MC)162 285 633
Total Senior Housing Units 3,257 5,007 6,162
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
HOUSING DEMAND SUMMARY
CARVER COUNTY
December 2023
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 to 2040
*Includes twin homes, townhomes, condominiums
^Affordable = affordable to households at 30% to 60% AMI
^Subsidized = affordable to households at 30% AMI or less
20,402
16,208
4,194
25,532
Senior Housing Demand
5,130
2,264
1,268
1,598
301
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 292
In total, we find demand for 25,532 general occupancy housing units in the County between
2023 and 2040, with 63% of the demand for detached single -family units for sale and 16% for-
sale multifamily units. Roughly 20% of the anticipated demand will be for rental units (5,130
units), including 9% market rate, 6% subsidized, and 5% affordable units.
The following chart illustrates excess senior housing demand potential in the County in 2023,
2030, and 2040. Between 2023 and 2040, excess demand growth is projected to be strongest
for assisted living units, followed by independent living and memory care units. Due to the age
distribution of the population, demand growth for market rate active adult units is expected to
be more modest, most notably from 2030 to 2040.
Detached Single-
family, 16,208
For-Sale
Multifamily, 4,194
Market Rate
Rental, 2,264
Affordable Rental,
1,268
Subsidized Rental,
1,598
General Occupancy Housing Demand in Carver County
2023 -2040
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 162 285 633
Assisted Living 105 255 902
Independent Living 447 719 928
Affordable Senior 1,000 1,567 1,520
Subsidized Senior 605 834 795
MR Active Adult Rental 525 798 816
MR Active Adult Owned 413 549 568
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Excess Senior Housing Demand in Carver County
2023, 2030, 2040
302
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 293
Carver Submarket
We find excess demand for 264 senior housing units in the Carver Submarket in 2023, increas-
ing to a total of 481 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for 2,624
general occupancy housing units in the submarket between 2023 and 2040, including 348
rental units and 2,266 for-sale units. We identified a total of 319 residential lots in the Carver
Submarket to support future demand (2.4-year supply), including 202 vacant developed lots
and 117 future lots.
CARVER SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 13 24 54
Assisted Living 6 14 49
Independent Living 32 52 68
Affordable Senior 69 124 128
Subsidized Senior 55 58 52
MR Active Adult Rental 58 81 83
MR Active Adult Owned 31 44 47
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 2,039
For-Sale
Multifamily, 227
Market Rate
Rental, 254
Affordable Rental,
39
Subsidized Rental,
65
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
303
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 294
Chanhassen Submarket
We find excess demand for 798 senior housing units in the Chanhassen Submarket in 2023, in-
creasing to a total of 1,635 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand
for 5,194 general occupancy housing units in the submarket between 2023 and 2040, including
974 rental units and 4,220 for-sale units. We identified a total of 230 residential lots to support
future demand (0.9-year supply), including 42 vacant developed lots, 164 future lots, and 24
pending lots. We understand the supply of land zoned for residential development may be in-
sufficient to meet projected demand in Chanhassen, so the City may want to consider guiding
additional land for residential development or increasing the allowable densities.
CHANHASSEN SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 45 65 133
Assisted Living 47 99 316
Independent Living 94 179 233
Affordable Senior 205 374 368
Subsidized Senior 154 197 184
MR Active Adult Rental 149 241 247
MR Active Adult Owned 104 148 154
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 3,376
For-Sale
Multifamily, 844
Market Rate
Rental, 653
Affordable Rental,
152
Subsidized Rental,
169
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
304
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 295
Chaska Submarket
We find excess demand for 657 senior housing units in the Chaska Submarket in 2023, increas-
ing to a total of 1,077 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for
5,733 general occupancy housing units in the Submarket between 2023 and 2040, including
1,934 rental units and 3,799 for-sale units. We identified a total of 637 residential lots in
Chaska to support future demand (2.9-year supply), including 309 vacant developed lots, 306
future lots, and 22 pending lots.
CHASKA SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 24 41 89
Assisted Living 10 34 122
Independent Living 80 122 155
Affordable Senior 306 407 388
Subsidized Senior 99 147 145
MR Active Adult Rental 76 112 113
MR Active Adult Owned 62 65 65
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 3,039
For-Sale
Multifamily, 760
Market Rate
Rental, 733
Affordable Rental,
598
Subsidized Rental,
603
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
305
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 296
Cologne Submarket
We find excess demand for 118 senior housing units in the Cologne Submarket in 2023, increas-
ing to a total of 211 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for 962
general occupancy housing units in the Submarket between 2023 and 2040, including 91 rental
units and 871 for-sale units. We identified a total of 142 residential lots in the Cologne Submar-
ket to support future demand (2.8-year supply), including 18 vacant developed lots and 124 fu-
ture lots.
COLOGNE SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 8 13 27
Assisted Living 5 8 27
Independent Living 17 27 35
Affordable Senior 30 46 43
Subsidized Senior 24 28 25
MR Active Adult Rental 22 33 35
MR Active Adult Owned 12 18 19
0
50
100
150
200
250
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 784
For-Sale
Multifamily, 87
Market Rate
Rental, 35
Affordable Rental,
18
Subsidized Rental,
38
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
306
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 297
Hamburg-Norwood Young America Submarket
We find excess demand for 157 senior housing units in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America
Submarket in 2023, increasing to a total of 375 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that
there will be demand for 1,858 general occupancy housing units between 2023 and 2040, in-
cluding 423 rental units and 1,435 for-sale units. We identified a total of 321 residential lots in
the Submarket to support future demand (3.8-year supply), including 14 vacant developed lots
and 307 future lots.
HAMBURG-NORWOOD YOUNG AMERICA SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 3 10 24
Assisted Living -19 -10 27
Independent Living 29 48 61
Affordable Senior 60 113 112
Subsidized Senior 57 89 87
MR Active Adult Rental 5 26 29
MR Active Adult Owned 22 34 35
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 861
For-Sale
Multifamily, 574
Market Rate
Rental, 169
Affordable Rental,
120
Subsidized Rental,
134
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
307
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 298
Mayer-New Germany Submarket
We find excess demand for 180 senior housing units in the Mayer-New Germany Submarket in
2023, increasing to a total of 826 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be de-
mand for 1,040 general occupancy housing units between 2023 and 2040, including 88 rental
units and 952 for-sale units. We identified a total of 1,709 residential lots in the Submarket to
support future demand (30.5-year supply), including 43 vacant developed lots but 1,666 future
lots (primarily in the Fieldstone subdivision in Mayer).
MAYER-NEW GERMANY SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 12 17 35
Assisted Living 8 13 36
Independent Living 26 37 47
Affordable Senior 51 76 70
Subsidized Senior 34 44 41
MR Active Adult Rental 32 44 43
MR Active Adult Owned 17 24 25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 809
For-Sale
Multifamily, 143
Market Rate
Rental, 40
Affordable Rental,
29
Subsidized Rental,
19
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
308
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 299
Victoria Submarket
We find excess demand for 456 senior housing units in the Victoria Submarket in 2023, increas-
ing to a total of 826 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for 1,647
general occupancy housing units between 2023 and 2040, including 91 rental units and 1,556
for-sale units. We identified a total of 492 residential lots in the Victoria Submarket to support
future demand (5.4-year supply), including 89 vacant developed lots and 403 future lots.
VICTORIA SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 27 62 144
Assisted Living 36 51 141
Independent Living 95 127 161
Affordable Senior 101 143 131
Subsidized Senior 43 58 55
MR Active Adult Rental 82 104 104
MR Active Adult Owned 72 89 90
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 1,167
For-Sale
Multifamily, 389
Market Rate
Rental, 0
Affordable Rental,
40
Subsidized Rental,
51
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
309
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 300
Waconia Submarket
We find excess demand for 408 senior housing units in the Waconia Submarket in 2023, in-
creasing to a total of 916 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for
5,300 general occupancy housing units between 2023 and 2040, including 1,094 rental units
and 4,206 for-sale units. We identified a total of 1,474 residential lots in the Waconia Submar-
ket to support future demand (6.0-year supply), including 380 vacant developed lots and 1,094
future lots.
WACONIA SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 13 32 79
Assisted Living 12 39 153
Independent Living 35 73 100
Affordable Senior 142 235 236
Subsidized Senior 92 157 157
MR Active Adult Rental 49 90 94
MR Active Adult Owned 65 92 97
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 3,365
For-Sale
Multifamily, 841
Market Rate Rental,
404
Affordable Rental,
228
Subsidized Rental,
462
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
310
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 301
Watertown Submarket
We find excess demand for 217 senior housing units in the Watertown Submarket in 2023, in-
creasing to a total of 344 senior units by 2040. We also estimate that there will be demand for
1,292 general occupancy housing units between 2023 and 2040, including 192 rental units and
1,100 for-sale units. We identified a total of 798 residential lots in the Submarket to support
future demand (12.3-year supply), including 57 vacant developed lots, 639 future lots, and 102
pending lots.
WATERTOWN SUBMARKET
2023 2030 2040
Memory Care 17 23 47
Assisted Living 0 7 32
Independent Living 38 53 67
Affordable Senior 37 50 46
Subsidized Senior 47 53 49
MR Active Adult Rental 51 66 67
MR Active Adult Owned 27 36 36
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Excess Senior Housing Demand
Detached Single-
family, 770
For-Sale
Multifamily, 330
Market Rate Rental,
92
Affordable Rental,
45
Subsidized Rental,
55
General Occupancy Housing Demand 2023 -2040
311
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 302
Recommendations
Based on the findings of the analysis and demand calculations, the tables and comments on the
following pages summarize recommended development concepts for general occupancy and
senior housing in Carver County through 2040. These proposed concepts are intended to act as
a development guide to meet the housing needs of existing and future households in the
County and its communities.
For-Sale Housing
Based on information gathered on for-sale properties in the County along with feedback from
area real estate professionals, we provide the following conclusions regarding the for -sale hous-
ing market in Carver County. Our recommendations include a breakdown of units by price
range.
Detached single-family price points are generally considered to be less than $350,000 for entry-
level housing, while move-up housing is considered to be the $450,000 to $550,000 range, and
executive housing is priced at $750,000 or higher. Multifamily housing (townhomes, twin
homes, condominium) price points are generally considered to be less than $300,000 for entry -
level, $400,000 to $500,000 for move-up, and $600,000 or higher for executive multifamily
housing.
• A move-up buyer is typically one who is selling one house and purchasing another one, usu-
ally a larger and more expensive home. The move is typically desired because of a lifestyle
change, such as a new job or a growing family. The 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 age groups are
generally target markets for move-up and executive housing, while move-up and executive
multifamily units would target an older buyer (age 55 to 74) looking to downsize.
• In total, we estimate that there will be demand for 16,208 detached single-family housing
units in Carver County between 2023 and 2040. We anticipate that 60% of these new units
(9,725 units) will target move-up buyers (generally considered to be priced in the $450,000
to $550,000 range in 2024 dollars).
- Another 25% of the units (4,052) would target entry-level buyers, and 15% (2,431 units)
will target the executive buyer market.
• Anecdotal feedback from area real estate professionals indicates that the greatest housing
need in the County is for modestly priced housing (e.g. entry-level) targeting moderate in-
come buyers.
- It can be difficult to construct new housing for less than $350,000, so the development
of any new entry-level for-sale housing products in the County may necessitate a public-
private partnership.
312
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 303
• One way to provide entry-level for-sale housing is to generate household turnover by in-
creasing the supply of move-up housing or with the increased development of attached sin-
gle-family (townhomes, twin homes) products. Entry-level home demand will primarily be
satisfied by existing single-family homes as existing homeowners purchase move-up housing
products built in the County.
TABLE 80
• We estimate that there will also be demand for 4,194 for-sale multifamily housing units in
the County between 2023 and 2040. We anticipate that 60% of these new units (2,516) will
target move-up buyers (generally considered to be priced in the $400,000 to $500,000
range in 2024 dollars) and 30% (1,258 units) will target entry-level buyers). Another 10%
(419 units) will be executive-level multifamily units.
Purchase Price 1 Pct.
Detached Single-Family Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
Hamburg-
NYA
Entry-level Less than $350,000 25%510 844 760 196 215
Move-up $450,000-$550,000 60%1,223 2,026 1,823 470 517
Executive $750,000+15%306 506 456 118 129
Submarket Total:100%2,039 3,376 3,039 784 861
Mayer-New
Germany Victoria Waconia Watertown
Entry-level 202 292 841 193
Move-up 485 700 2,019 462
Executive 121 175 505 116
Submarket Total:809 1,167 3,365 770
Multifamily (i.e. townhomes, twin homes)Carver Chanhassen Chaska Cologne
Hamburg-
NYA
Entry-level Less than $300,000 30%68 253 228 26 172
Move-up $400,000-$500,000 60%136 506 456 52 344
Executive $600,000+10%23 84 76 9 57
Submarket Total:100%227 844 760 87 574
Mayer-New
Germany Victoria Waconia Watertown
Entry-level 43 117 252 99
Move-up 86 233 505 198
Executive 14 39 84 33
Submarket Total:143 389 841 330
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding
¹ Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
GENERAL OCCUPANCY FOR-SALE HOUSING PRICING RECOMMENDATIONS
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 - 2040
---------- Submarkets ----------
313
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 304
General Occupancy Rental Housing
Strong demand, below equilibrium vacancy rates, and rent growth have stimulated develop-
ment activity throughout the Metro Area over the past several years. The strong demand for
apartment units is being generated, in large part, by job growth along with a tight for-sale hous-
ing market as there is a limited supply of housing available to purchase, particularly for first -
time homebuyers.
The competitive set of stabilized general occupancy market rate properties in the County is cur-
rently 2.2% vacant, well-below equilibrium (7.0% vacancy). Additionally, affordable and subsi-
dized rental properties are 5.6% vacant in the County, with many properties maintaining
lengthy prospect lists. These tight market conditions suggest pent-up demand for new gen-
eral occupancy rental housing units in Carver County.
We find excess demand potential for 2,264 market rate rental housing units in the County be-
tween 2023 and 2040. Based on the income distribution of renter households, we estimate
that roughly 41% of the market rate demand would come from households that fall within the
typical income band for workforce housing, totaling 928 units. We also find demand for 1,268
affordable units and 1,598 subsidized units in the County between 2023 and 2040.
Understanding that there is pent-up demand for new market rate and affordable rental housing
(as indicated by below equilibrium vacancy rates), we find sufficient market support for addi-
tional general occupancy market rate and affordable rental units in the County. Strong de-
mographics from the tail end of the Millennial generation will likely continue to generate rental
housing demand over the next several years in the County. Additionally, the area is experienc-
ing more lifestyle renters, those with busy professional lives and people who prefer to spend
their free time in leisure pursuits rather than on upkeep and maintenance of a home.
The strongest sources of demand for new market rate rental housing in the County will likely be
young singles and couples without children in their late-20s to mid-30s who work for nearby
employers, along the I-494 or I-394 corridors, or in Minneapolis. Mid-age households (never-
nesters or empty-nesters) who want to sell their single-family homes and have more freedom
for leisure pursuits could also account for a portion of demand for new rental housing.
Affordable units will attract residents who are not able to afford new market rate units in the
County, but do not income-qualify for subsidized units. A variety of residents will be drawn to
affordable units, including young singles, single-parent families, and seniors. Much of the de-
mand for new affordable rental units will likely come from people residing in older rentals
and/or currently living as roommates with other low/moderate-income individuals.
The following table provides a summary of the recommended mix of general occupancy rental
housing units by product type, including monthly rent ranges and a breakdown of demand by
submarket. The recommendations in this table are intended to reflect potential development
concepts for rental housing projects within the County.
314
CARVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 305
The breakdown of demand by submarket and product type do not necessarily reflect total de-
mand for an individual development, as the primary draw area for a new project would likely be
a combination of multiple submarkets and may also include communities from outside the
County, depending on location.
TABLE 81
Subsidized general occupancy projects are essentially no longer being built as available funding
is very limited, so we exclude subsidized units from the recommended development concepts
table. There are, however, properties under special funding programs that target long -term
homeless, households with disabilities, or households that require permanent supportive hous-
ing that have been constructed recently. Rural Development projects typically have rental as-
sistance to support very low-income households.
Affordable^
Apartments Townhomes Apartments Townhomes
Apts or
Townhomes
Recommended
Rent by Unit Type
$1,450/studio -
$2,700/3BR
$2,400/2BR -
$3,100/3BR
$1,200/studio -
$1,600/2BR
$1,900/2BR -
$2,300/3BR
Moderate
Income
Affordable^
Submarket Apartments Townhomes Apartments Townhomes
Apts or
Townhomes
Carver 144 36 59 15 39
Chanhassen 266 67 256 64 152
Chaska 370 92 217 54 598
Cologne 9 2 19 5 18
Hamburg-NYA 100 25 35 9 120
Mayer-NG 21 5 11 3 29
Victoria~--------40
Waconia 149 37 174 44 228
Watertown 48 12 26 6 45
*Workforce housing targets households at 60% to 120% AMI
^Subject to income guidelines per HUD & MN Housing at 50%-60% AMI
~The amount of new product pending exceeds the demand potential in the Victoria Submarket
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Note - The number of units by submarket and product type reflects excess demand from 2023 to 2040,
not the size of a property that could be supported in a single development.
Workforce*
Market Rate Workforce*
---------- Monthly Rent Range by Product Type ----------
---------- Estimated Demand ('23 - '40) by Submarket and Product Type ----------
Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
2023 - 2040
Market Rate
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• Market Rate Apartments – We recommend middle- to upper-market rental projects that
could attract a diverse resident profile, including young singles and couples across all ages.
To appeal to a wide target market, we suggest a project with a mix of studio, one-, two-,
and three-bedroom units. Units with dens are also recommended, as the den could be uti-
lized as a home office or guest bedroom.
Monthly rents (in 2024 dollars) should average roughly $1,450 for studio units to $2,700 for
three-bedroom units. Average market rate rents in the County are approximately $1.61 per
square foot, however average monthly rents in a new construction project would likely av-
erage approximately $2.00 per square foot, depending on unit types and sizes. Monthly
rents can be trended up by 2.0% annually prior to occupancy to account for inflation de-
pending on overall market conditions.
New market rate rental units should be designed with contemporary amenities that include
open floor plans, high ceilings, in-unit washer and dryer, stainless steel kitchen appliances,
granite or quartz countertops, central air-conditioning, garage parking, outdoor recreation
(fire pit, grilling area, etc.), and electric vehicle charging stations.
Since the pandemic, an increasing number of people are working remotely, a trend that is
likely to continue to some degree. Subsequently, buildings that are well-equipped for tele-
commuting are becoming more important to residents. Including building and in-unit fea-
tures like units with dens, built in desks, and built in USB ports should be well-received by
prospective renters looking for a designated workspace. These features will be especially
useful long-term as some workers transition into hybrid in-person and work-from-home
schedules post-COVID-19.
• Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Townhomes – We anticipate that demand exists
for market rate rental townhome units (estimated at 20% of market rate demand) targeting
empty-nesters and families, including those families who are new to the community and
want to rent until they find a home for purchase.
As an alternative to an apartment-style building, we recommend townhome projects with
rents ranging from roughly $2,400 for two-bedroom units to $3,100 for three-bedroom
units. Units should be larger than in an apartment development and feature contemporary
amenities (i.e. in-unit washer/dryer, stainless steel kitchen appliance package, kitchen is-
land, solid-surface countertops, high ceilings, etc.), an attached two car garage, and the de-
velopment should provide some open/green space.
• Workforce Rental Housing – Based on our demand findings and conversations with area
real estate professionals, we anticipate that strong demand exists for rental housing (either
apartments or townhomes) with rents targeted to households with modest incomes. We
recommend a project targeted to the area’s workforce with a mix of studio, one -, and two-
bedroom apartments units or two- and three-bedroom townhomes units.
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We recommend rents range from $1,200 for a studio apartment unit to $2,300 for a three -
bedroom townhome unit. A $1,200 per month rent would be affordable to a single-person
household earning $48,000 per year ($23.08 per hour) which falls in the 50% to 60% AMI
range. A $2,300 monthly rent would be affordable to households earning $92,000 per year,
consistent with four- to six-person households in the 60% to 80% AMI range.
• Affordable General Occupancy Multifamily Housing – Demand also exists for general occu-
pancy affordable units in Carver County, although we anticipate that many qualified seniors
would be also drawn to a new affordable general occupancy rental housing development.
Affordable rental housing attracts households that cannot afford new market rate rental
units but do not income-qualify for subsidized housing. Affordable projects often attract a
broad group of tenants based on the unit type. One -bedroom units target singles and cou-
ples, while two and three-bedroom units target family households. Although there is an
older supply of apartment units in the County that indirectly serves as affordable housing,
we recommend affordable developments that would target residents at approximately 40%
to 60% AMI. We recommend either a traditional apartment-style project or a rental town-
home concept with a mix of one, two- and three-bedroom units. Alternatively, a new mar-
ket rate development could incorporate a small percentage of affordable units in a mixed-
income project.
Units should feature central air conditioning, full kitchen appliance package, in-unit
washer/dryer, and garage parking. A townhome development should include an attached
one/two car garage along with open/green space.
• Subsidized Rental Housing – Subsidized housing receives financial assistance (i.e. operating
subsidies, rent payments, etc.) from governmental agencies in order to make the rent af-
fordable to low-to-moderate income households. Although we find demand for 1,598 gen-
eral occupancy subsidized rental housing units in Carver County between 2023 and 2040,
this housing is very difficult to develop financially.
A new subsidized or public housing development would have pent -up demand. However,
since this housing is challenging to develop, a portion of this demand could be captured in
an affordable rental housing development or in market rate housing project with a subsi-
dized component.
Through the Section 811 Supportive Housing for Persons with Disabilities program, HUD
provides funding to develop and subsidize rental housing with support services available for
very low- and extremely low-income adults with disabilities. A Section 811 subsidized pro-
ject in Carver County would meet a need by providing housing for this population. This pop-
ulation could also be served through the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program as
well as through a combination of other funding resources, some of which may combine
LIHTC with other programs and/or bond financing.
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Senior Housing
The following table summarizes senior housing demand in Carver County, included recom-
mended pricing by service level, along with a breakdown of short-term demand (2030) for each
service level by submarket. We anticipate that the growing older adult and senior population
will support long-term demand for additional senior housing in the County through 2040. De-
velopment of additional senior housing units is recommended in order to provide alternate
housing options to these residents as they age.
TABLE 82
Market Rate Affordable^
Rental
Apartments
Rental
Apartments
Independent
Living*
Assisted
Living*
Memory
Care
Recommended
Rent/Fees
$1,500/1BR -
$2,500/2BR
Moderate
Income
$2,300/studio -
$4,300/2BR
$3,800/studio -
$5,200/2BR
$5,500 -
$6,000/studio
Market Rate Affordable^
Submarket
Rental
Apartments
Rental
Apartments
Independent
Living*
Assisted
Living*
Memory
Care
Carver 81 124 52 14 24
Chanhassen 241 374 179 99 65
Chaska 112 407 122 34 41
Cologne 33 46 27 8 13
Hamburg-NYA~26 113 48 --10
Mayer-NG 44 76 37 13 17
Victoria 104 143 127 51 62
Waconia 90 235 73 39 32
Watertown 66 50 53 7 23
^Subject to income guidelines per HUD & MN Housing at 50%-60% AMI
*Catered living recommended which allows residents to receive AL services without switching units
~Existing and pending AL product exceeds the demand potential in the Hamburg-NYA Submarket
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Service-Enhanced
SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
CARVER COUNTY BY SUBMARKET
January 2024
---------- Monthly Rents/Fees by Service Level ----------
---------- Estimated Demand (2030) by Submarket and Service Level ----------
Service-Enhanced
Pricing in 2024 dollars and can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Note - The number of units by submarket and service level reflects excess demand in 2030, not the
size of a property that could be supported in a single development.
Additional demand for owned active adult units and subsidized senior housing units.
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The development of senior housing will serve a dual purpose in meeting the housing needs in
the County; 1) older adult and senior residents are able to relocate to new age-restricted hous-
ing and receive services, if needed, and 2) existing homes and rental units that were occupied
by seniors become available to other households, stimulating turnover.
In addition to demand summarized in the table, we also estimate that there will be excess de-
mand for 549 market rate active adult ownership units in 2030. Active adult ownership de-
mand can be satisfied through a variety of products, including age -restricted detached single-
family or villa communities, townhome/twin-home developments, age-restricted condominium
projects, or senior cooperative developments. Pricing for owned active adult housing can vary
greatly, depending on product type, unit sizes, amenities, and services available.
We did not identify any senior housing cooperatives in the County, although the cooperative
model is common in the Twin Cities Metro Area and could be an attractive option for County
residents seeking active adult housing. Senior cooperatives are typically a minimum of 50 units
and allows prospective residents an ownership option and homestead tax benefits without the
substantial upfront investment required for other types of owned products.
• Market Rate Active Adult – Total demand was projected for 525 market rate active adult
rental units in Carver County in 2023, increasing to 798 units in 2030, and 816 units in 2040.
There is excess demand for market rate active adult rental units across the County, although
the depth of demand ranges from 26 units in the Hamburg-Norwood Young America Sub-
market to 407 units in the Chaska Submarket in 2030.
Because active adult senior housing in not need-driven, demand for this product type com-
petes, to some degree, with general occupancy rental housing projects . Many existing
rental buildings have older residents that could potentially be drawn to an age-restricted
building if additional product was available. Monthly rents for new active adult rental units
would be similar to new general occupancy market rate rental housing, although the unit
mix would likely consist of slightly larger units.
• Affordable and Subsidized Senior Rental – Demand was calculated for 1,000 affordable
senior housing units in 2023, increasing to 1,520 units in 2040. We find demand for afforda-
ble senior housing across all submarkets, but the larger submarkets have the deepest de-
mand. Many candidates for affordable senior rental may be residents at older market rate
rental properties. These older properties would have similar (or lower) rents that would be
considered affordable for these seniors.
An affordable senior housing development would most likely be a LIHTC project through
Minnesota Housing. We recommend affordable senior housing developments as either
stand-alone buildings or incorporated into a mixed-income development.
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While not shown in the table, we also find demand for 605 subsidized units in the County in
2023, increasing to 795 units in 2040. The development of subsidized senior housing can be
challenging due to the limited availability of financing as federal funds have been shrinking.
A new subsidized development would likely rely on a mix of funding sources; from LIHTC,
tax-exempt bonds, Section 202 program, Rural Development 515 program, and/or Rural De-
velopment rental assistance, among others.
• Service-Enhanced Senior Housing – We find demand for a total of 714 market rate service-
enhanced units in Carver County in 2023 (447 independent living units, 105 assisted living
units, and 162 memory care units), increasing to 2,463 units in 2040 (928 independent liv-
ing, 902 assisted living, and 633 memory care units). Because assisted living vacancy rates
are slightly elevated, there is not likely an immediate need for new assisted living units, but
strong demand growth is projected. Anecdotal feedback from senior housing leasing man-
agers indicates that there is a strong and growing need for additional memory care units in
the County.
We recommend the development of catered living facilities, allowing residents to change
their level of care as they age without having to relocate from one unit to another within
the facility.
Independent Living Service Level
The monthly fees should include the base monthly rent, utilities, and some services , such as
programs (social, health, wellness and educational), 24-hour emergency call system, and
regularly scheduled van transportation. In addition, meals and other support and personal
care services should be made available to independent living residents on a fee-for-service
basis. When their care needs increase, residents should be provided the option of receiving
assisted living services in their existing units, either in bundled packages or a-la-carte.
Assisted Living Service Level
The fees should include the base monthly rent, utilities, and assisted living services, such as
three meals per day plus snacks, weekly housekeeping, linen service, professional activity
programs, scheduled outings, nursing care management, and 24-hour on site staffing. Addi-
tional services should also be available either in service packages or a la carte for an extra
monthly charge.
Memory Care Component
We suggest that any memory care units be located in a separate, secured, self -contained
wing located on the first floor of the building with its own dining and common area ameni-
ties including a secure outdoor patio and wandering area. Fees should the same services as
assisted living along with medication reminders, medication administration, and personal
care assistance, with other service packages available a-la-carte.
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Challenges and Opportunities
The previous tables identified and recommended housing types that would satisfy housing
needs in Carver County through 2040. The following were identified as significant challenges
and opportunities for developing the recommended housing types (in no particular order).
• Affordability. Approximately 18% of all owner households in Carver County are considered
to be cost burdened, while 41% of existing renter households in the County are considered
cost burdened. By comparison, 18% of owner households and 45% of renter households
are cost burdened in the Metro Area.
Based on current home prices, roughly 64% of existing owner households in the County
could afford to purchase a moderately priced entry-level detached single-family home
($300,000), although the proportion drops to 36% that could afford a move-up home priced
at $500,000. Roughly 50% of existing renter householders could afford to rent a one-bed-
room unit at a market rate rental property in the County at the average rent of $1,400 per
month; however, the income-qualified percentage drops to 42% that could afford monthly
rents for a new construction one-bedroom unit priced at $1,600 per month.
Due to the relatively high cost to own an entry-level home in the County, many renter
households will continue to choose rental housing over ownership housing, and the pur-
chasing affordability factor will decrease with continued price appreciation. There is also a
growing segment of the population that is choosing rental housing over ownership housing.
These households are referred to as “lifestyle renters,” those with busy professional lives
and people who prefer to spend their free time in leisure pursuits rat her than on the up-
keep and maintenance of a home.
• Aging Population/Aging Baby Boomers. Significant growth in the senior population is pro-
jected for Carver County, and homeownership rates among seniors age 65 and older is rela-
tively high. High homeownership rates among seniors suggests that there could be a lack of
senior housing options available, or simply that many seniors prefer to live in their home
and age in place. Because of the increasing older adult and senior population , demand for
alternative maintenance-free housing products is rising. In addition, demand for home
health care services and home remodeling programs to assist seniors with retrofitting their
existing homes should also increase.
• Capture Commuters. Roughly 64% of the primary jobs in Carver County are filled by work-
ers commuting into the area. With nearly 22,000 workers commuting into the County for
employment daily, many commuting more than 50 miles, there appears to be an oppor-
tunity to provide housing options for a portion of these workers. While data does not yet
reflect impacts on commuting patterns post -pandemic, we anticipate that with potential
shifts in work locations long-term for some worker segments (i.e. increased telecommut-
ing), more people are likely to remain within the County for work.
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• Household Growth and Mobility. As highlighted in the Demographic Analysis section of
this study as well as the demand calculations, household growth is projected to be fairly
strong in Carver County between 2023 and 2040, with most age groups experiencing
growth. The older age cohorts are expected to experience the most rapid growth, while
slightly more moderate growth is projected for the age groups that are typically the target
market for general occupancy rental and for-sale housing.
Much of the demand for new housing units will be generated by turnover of existing house-
holds in the County, although turnover often leads to opportunities for new households to
move into the area. Population and household growth in the County will be highly depend-
ent on the availability of suitable housing options catering to a variety of age groups and
household types.
• Inflation. U.S. inflation rates hit a new 40-year high of nearly 9% in summer 2022, the larg-
est annual increase since December 1981. Price increases across most goods and services,
notably energy and food costs, are impacting consumers and affecting housing affordability.
As a result, the Federal Reserve implemented interest rate hikes and increasing borrowing
costs in an attempt to avoid recession. As interest rates increased, for-sale housing demand
slowed and demand for rental housing increased, resulting in higher housing costs for both
buyers and renters. While consumer price increases have decelerated in recent months, in-
terest rates remain elevated. Household budgets will continue to be stretched as rising
costs affect local residents, which could hinder housing production in the short term as new
construction will be difficult to afford.
• Mortgage Rates. Mortgage rates play a crucial role in housing affordability. Lower mort-
gage rates result in a lower monthly mortgage payment and buyers receiving more home
for their dollar. Rising interest rates often require homebuyers to raise their down payment
in order to maintain the same housing costs. Mortgage rates were at historic lows, staying
below 5.0% through much of the 2010s, then dropping to all-time lows (below 3.0%) at the
onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through most of 2020 and part of 2021. However, in re-
sponse to rapid inflation, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates in 2022.
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The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to Freddie Mac reached 7.79% for qualified buy-
ers in October 2023, the highest rate since November 2000 (7.79%). Continued high mort-
gage rates will raise the overall cost of for-sale housing, likely slowing projected for-sale
housing demand.
The following chart illustrates historical mortgage rate averages as compiled by Freddie
Mac. The Freddie Mac Market Survey (PMMS) has been tracking mortgage rates since 1971
and is the most relied upon benchmark for evaluating mortgage interest market co nditions.
The Freddie Mac survey is based on 30-year mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%.
• Job Growth and Unemployment. Low unemployment often generates demand for both ex-
isting home purchases and new-home purchases. Carver County has historically maintained
a lower unemployment rate than the Twin Cities Metro Area, as well as the nation. The
2022 unemployment rates of 2.2% in Carver County and 2.5% in the Metro Area were well -
below equilibrium (generally considered to be 5.0%). Current unemployment rates have
come down since spiking in the first half of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at
9.4% in the County, 11.9% in the Metro Area, 11.0% in Minnesota, and 14.4% in the United
States.
Solid job growth is anticipated over the next several years, and we anticipate that employ-
ment growth in Carver County will outpace job growth in the remainder of the Metro Area.
Employment in Carver County is projected to expand 11%, adding 4,476 jobs, b etween 2023
and 2030, compared to 8% growth in the Metro Area. Another 6,187 jobs are expected to
be added in the County between 2030 and 2040, achieving 13% growth during the decade
compared to 6% growth in the Metro Area. With 10,663 new jobs projected for the County
by 2040, additional housing will be needed to support a portion of the anticipated job
growth in Carver County.
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Apr-71Apr-73Apr-75Apr-77Apr-79Apr-81Apr-83Apr-85Apr-87Apr-89Apr-91Apr-93Apr-95Apr-97Apr-99Apr-01Apr-03Apr-05Apr-07Apr-09Apr-11Apr-13Apr-15Apr-17Apr-19Apr-21Apr-23Historic 30-Year Mortgage Rates
1971 -December 2023
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• Residential Lot Supply. We identified 1,050 vacant developed detached single-family lots
and 4,255 future detached single-family lots in Carver County, along with 104 vacant devel-
oped multifamily lots and 788 future multifamily lots. Additionally, we identified 595 de-
tached single-family and 66 multifamily lots pending (concept) in the County.
Based on the for-sale housing demand calculations (16,208 detached single-family units and
4,194 multifamily units needed by 2040), the existing supply of vacant and future lots is suf-
ficient to satisfy short-term demand, but additional lots will be needed by 2040. There is an
approximately 5.6-year supply of detached single-family lots (vacant plus future) and a 3.6-
year supply of multifamily lots in Carver County. However, the supply of development-
ready (vacant developed lots) is much smaller, at 1.1-year supply of detached single-family
and a 0.4-year supply of multifamily vacant developed lots.
• Residential Construction and Development Costs. The cost to build and develop new sin-
gle-family housing has increased significantly over the past decade, and since the Great Re-
cession in all markets across the United States. New construction pricing peaked last dec-
ade between 2005 and 2007 before falling during the recession. However, since the Great
Recession it has become increasingly difficult for builders to construct entry-level new
homes due to a number of constraints, including rising land costs, rising material and labor
costs, lack of construction labor, and increasing regulation and entitlement fees.
As a result, affordable new construction homes have become rare as builders are unable to
pencil-out modestly priced new construction. New construction in Carver County is difficult
to achieve under the $400,000 price point and many communities have homes being devel-
oped above $700,000, out of reach for many middle-income households.
• COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the housing market, both directly and in-
directly. Economic conditions are still adjusting to the impacts of the pandemic with high
inflation and elevated interest rates. Locally, job growth has resumed, and unemployment
is near historic lows, although statewide labor force participation rates remain low.
Because of the pandemic, an increasing number of people are working remotely, a trend
that is likely to continue to some degree, creating an opportunity for Carver County to cap-
ture a portion of the working population that may otherwise live closer to their place of em-
ployment.
The for-sale housing market experienced strong demand, shortened marketing times, and
rising sale prices. Supply remains low and many listings receive multiple offers. The pan-
demic has changed some buyer preferences, and many buyers are seeking outdoor fea-
tures, green space, more square footage, flexible spaces for home offices, and healthy living
conditions.
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In the rental market, demand for smaller units (i.e. studios) has waned post-pandemic as
renters desire larger spaces as they work from home. With telecommuting becoming the
norm, tenants are seeking a separation of work and live spaces along with access to balco-
nies and patios. These trends are expected to continue.
The senior housing industry was directly impacted by the pandemic as the virus affected
older adults at a much higher rate. Senior properties hit record high vacancy rates, and
many seniors continue to age in place as long as possible to avoid shared living spaces.
• Workforce Housing is generally considered to be housing that targets households earning
between 50% and 120% AMI. Often referred to as moderate-income housing, units are
priced at rates affordable to the local workforce. In Carver County, the workforce housing
income band ranges from $43,500 (one-person household at 50% AMI) to $172,920 (six-
person household at 120% AMI). The development of workforce housing, both owned and
rented, is important for communities to attract and maintain employees, although public-
private partnerships may be needed to help finance the development of workforce housing.
Housing Programs
Many local governments offer housing programs designed to enhance, improve, or develop
new housing stock. The following points are designed to provide ideas and suggestions to help
the public and private sector support housing programs and incentives to spur housing develop-
ment in Carver County.
The examples presented on the following pages identify housing tools utilized in other commu-
nities; however, this is not an all-encompassing list as many governmental agencies offer differ-
ent programs based on their individual needs.
Federal funds for housing development have been declining for decades and the remaining
housing programs include the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG), the HOME Invest-
ment Partnerships Program, Housing Choice Vouchers, Low-Income Housing Tax Credits
(LIHTC), and USDA rural housing programs. However, local units of government are increasingly
dependent on other resources to support development such as housing trust funds and housing
bonds.
State/National Resources:
Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (“Minnesota Housing”) – Minnesota Housing is a housing
finance agency whose mission is to finance affordable housing for low- and moderate-income
households across Minnesota. Minnesota Housing partners with for-profit, non-profit, and gov-
ernmental sectors to help develop and preserve affordable housing. The organization provides
numerous products and services for both the single-family and multifamily housing sectors.
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Their five strategic priorities are as follows; preserve federally subsidized rental housing, pro-
mote and support successful homeownership, address specific and critical rental housing
needs, prevent and end homelessness, prevent foreclosure and support community recovery.
The Minnesota Affordable Housing Tax Credit (AHTC) and the Housing Tax Credit Contribution
Account (HTCCA), which were established in 2021, offer a flexible fund that provides loans and
grants to developers for eligible housing projects.
The fund is capitalized by contributions from taxpayers. Participating taxpayers receive a $0.85
credit for every dollar contributed to the Housing Tax Credit Contribution Account (minimum
contribution of $1,000). The program is expected to start in 2023 and for the next six years, but
Minnesota Housing and the Department of Revenue need to adopt program guidelines and cri-
teria.
- Eligible uses include multifamily units for households with incomes at or below the
greater of 80% AMI or SMI; single-family homes for households with incomes at or be-
low the greater of 115% AMI or SMI; gap financing; new construction; acquisition; reha-
bilitation; demolition; construction financing; permanent financing; interest rate reduc-
tion; and refinancing.
- Eligible awardees include a City, federally recognized American Indian tribe or subdivi-
sion, tribal housing corporation, private developer, non -profit organization, housing and
redevelopment authority, public housing authority or agency, owner of the housi ng.
The Economic Development and Housing Challenge funds the construction, purchase, financing,
and redevelopment of single-family homes and multifamily rental properties with deferred
loans. The program has a specific goal of enhancing economic development and is a primary
resource for workforce housing.
The Low- and Moderate-Income Rental Program (LMIR) provides long-term amortizing mort-
gage debt for multifamily rental housing affordable to low - and moderate-income households
in Minnesota. Generally, properties with less than 24 units are not financially feasible, although
smaller projects may be considered. Eligible activities include new construction, rehabilitation
of existing affordable housing, adaptive reuse, preservation of affordable housing, preservation
of federally assisted housing, construction to permanent financings, and refinance of exist ing
mortgages.
The Workforce and Affordable Homeownership Development Program provides a one-time
grant of up to $375,000 for the development of workforce and affordable homeownership pro-
jects across Minnesota. Funds serve households up to 115% AMI, and may be used for residen-
tial housing development, rehabilitation, land development, infrastructure development, and
repair for manufactured home parks.
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Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development – MN DEED offers commu-
nity development funding through two programs for projects that assist communities stay vital
and pursue economic development. The Small Cities Development Program offers state grant
funds to rehabilitate local housing stock. Local governments lend funds to projects benefiting
low- and moderate-income households and may be used for owner-occupied or rental projects.
Additionally, public facility grants are directed toward wastewater treatment projects.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rural Development – Housing support is availa-
ble through the “Housing and Community Assistance” program that is part of USDA Rural Devel-
opment. The program is designed to improve housing options in rural communities and oper-
ates a variety of programs including homeownership assistance, housing rehabilitation and
preservation, and rental assistance.
Other Resources
There are many other housing programs that Carver County communities could consider utiliz-
ing to aid and improve the housing stock. The following is a list of potential programs that
could be explored.
- Accessory Dwelling Units - An Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) is a self-contained residen-
tial unit that meets the requirements of the State Building Code. These units, often re-
ferred to as “granny flats” or “backyard cottages” may be located inside the principal
building on the lot or may be located in a detached accessory building on the same lot.
Cities within the County could consider allowing ADUs in residential zoning districts to
increase the variety of housing types available in the City.
- Affordable Housing Trust Fund - Local Housing Trust Funds (LHTF) are funds established
by a local government by dedicating local public revenue for housing. They are a con-
sistent, flexible resource for housing within a local jurisdiction. Trust funds help commu-
nities leverage public and private resources and initiate projects that draw investment
and jobs. Minnesota Housing Partnership recently completed a Local Housing Trust
Fund Manual which is available on their website: https://www.mhponline.org/im-
ages/LHTFManual/LHTFManualMN.pdf
- Architectural Design Services - The local government authority (City, HRA, etc.) partners
with local architects to provide design consultation with homeowners. Homeowner pays
a small fee for service, while the City/public entity absorbs the majority of the cost. No
income restriction.
- Construction Management Services - Assist homeowners regarding local building codes,
reviewing contractor bids, etc. Typically provided as a service by the building depart-
ment. This type of service could also be rolled into various remodeling related programs.
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- Density Bonuses - Since the cost of land is a significant barrier to housing affordability,
increasing densities can result in lower housing costs by reducing the land costs per unit.
Municipalities can offer density bonuses as a way to encourage higher-density residen-
tial development while also promoting an affordable housing component.
- Fast Track Permitting - Program designed to reduce delays during the development pro-
cess that ultimately add to the total costs of housing development. By expediting the
permitting process costs can be reduced to developers while providing certainty into the
development process. Typically, no-cost to the local government jurisdiction.
- First-Time Home Buyers - Below market-rate mortgage loans for first-time homebuyers,
or those who have not owned a home in the past three years. Financial assistance may
also be available for down payment, closing costs, and princip al reduction. Usually sub-
ject to income guidelines, purchase price limits, and eligible property. Some cities part-
ner with a 3rd party.
- Historic Preservation - Encourage residents to preserve historic housing stock in neigh-
borhoods with homes with character through restoring and preserving architectural and
building characteristics. Typically funded with low interest rates on loans for preserva-
tion construction costs.
- Home Improvement Area (HIA) - HIAs allow a townhome or condo association low inter-
est loans to finance improvements to communal areas. Unit owners repay the loan
through fees imposed on the property, usually through property taxes. Typically, a "last
resort" tool when associations are unable to obtain traditional financing due to the loss
of equity from the real estate market or deferred maintenance on older properties.
- Home-Building Trades Partnerships - Partnership between local Technical Colleges or
High Schools that offer building trades programs. Affordability is gained through re-
duced labor costs provided by the school. New housing production serves as the “class-
room” for future trades people to gain experience in the construction industry.
- Home Point of Sale - City ordinance requiring an inspection prior to the sale or transfer
of residential real estate. The inspection is intended to prevent adverse conditions and
meet minimum building codes. Sellers are responsible for incurring any costs for the in-
spection. Depending on the community, evaluations are completed by either city inspec-
tors or third-party licensed inspectors.
- Housing Fair - Free seminars and advice for homeowners related to remodeling and
home improvements. Most housing fairs offer educational seminars and "ask the ex-
pert" consulting services. Exhibitors include architects, landscapers, building contrac-
tors, home products, city inspectors, financial services, among others.
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- Home Energy Loans – Offer low interest home energy loans to make energy improve-
ments in their homes.
- Household and Outside Maintenance for the Elderly (H.O.M.E.) - Persons 60 and over
receive homemaker and maintenance services. Typical services include house cleaning,
grocery shopping, yard work/lawn care, and other miscellaneous maintenance requests.
- Infill Lots - Purchase blighted or substandard housing units from willing sellers. After the
home has been removed, the vacant land is placed into the program for future redevel-
opment. Future purchasers can be builders or the future owner-occupant who has a
contract with a builder.
- Land Banking - Land Banking is a program of acquiring land with the purpose of develop-
ing at a later date. After a holding period, the land can be sold to a developer (often at a
price lower than market) with the purpose of developing affordable housing.
- Land Trust - Utilizing a long-term 99-year ground lease, housing is affordable as the land
is owned by a non-profit organization. Subject to income limits and targeted to work-
force families with low-to-moderate incomes. If the family chooses to sell their home,
the selling price is lower as land is excluded.
- Live Where You Work - Program designed to promote homeownership in the same com-
munity where employees work. City provides a grant to eligible employees to purchase
a home near their workplace. Employers can also contribute or match the city's contri-
bution. Participants must obtain a first mortgage through participating lenders. The
grant can be allocated towards down payment assistance, closing costs, and gap financ-
ing.
- Low or No Cost City/County-Supplied Land - Sell city/county-owned land at low/no cost
for the construction of mixed-income and affordable housing.
- Realtor Forum - Typically administered by City with partnership by local school board.
Inform local Realtors about school district news, current development projects, and
other marketing factors related to real estate in the community. In addition, Realtors
usually receive CE credits.
- Remodeling Tours - City-driven home remodeling tour intended to promote the en-
hancement of the housing stock through home renovations/additions. Homeowners
open their homes to the public to highlight home improvements.
- Rental License - Licensing rental properties in the communities. Designed to ensure all
rental properties meet local building and safety codes. Typically enforced by the fire
marshal or building inspection department. Should require annual license renewal.
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- Rent to Own - Income-eligible families rent for a specified length of time with the end-
goal of buying a home. The administering agency saves a portion of the monthly rent
that will be allocated for a down payment on a future house.
- Scattered Site Housing Program - Target distressed or blighted single-family properties
for demolition and rehabilitation. Once demolished, vacant lots can be sold for the con-
struction of a new single-family home.
- Tax Abatement - A temporary reduction in property taxes over a specific time period on
new construction homes or home remodeling projects. Encourages new construction or
rehabilitation through property tax incentives.
- Tax Increment Financing (TIF) - Program that offers communities a flexible financing tool
to assist housing development projects and related infrastructure. TIF enables commu-
nities to dedicate the incremental tax revenues from new housing development to help
make the housing more affordable or pay for related costs.
TIF funds can be used to provide a direct subsidy to a particular housing project or they
can also be used to promote affordable housing by setting aside a portion of TIF pro-
ceeds into a dedicated fund from other developments receiving TIF.
- Waiver or Reduction of Development Fees - There are several fees developers must pay
including impact fees, utility and connection fees, park land dedication fees, etc. To
help facilitate affordable housing, some fees could be waived or reduced to pass the
cost savings onto the housing consumer.
- Visitability - Defined as designs that allow persons with mobility impairments to enter
and stay, but not live, in a residence. There are three specific design elements that must
be incorporated in the dwelling to satisfy the State visitability requirements : the dwell-
ing must include at least one no-step entrance, 32-inch clear opening doorways, and at
least a one-half bathroom on the main level that meets minimum clear floor space for
half baths. The requirement applies to new construction financed by Min nesota Hous-
ing, including single-family homes, duplexes, triplexes, and multi-level townhomes. Cit-
ies could adopt similar requirements for a portion of new development projects, partic-
ularly developments that utilize municipal finance tools.
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Definitions
Absorption Period – The period of time necessary for newly constructed or renovated proper-
ties to achieve the stabilized level of occupancy. The absorption period begins when the first
certificate of occupancy is issued and ends when the last unit to reach the stabilized lev el of oc-
cupancy has signed a lease.
Absorption Rate – The average number of units rented each month during the absorption pe-
riod.
Active Adult – Active Adult properties are similar to a general-occupancy apartment building, in
that they offer virtually no services but have age-restrictions (typically 55 or 62 or older). Orga-
nized activities and occasionally a transportation program are usually all that are ava ilable at
these properties. Because of the lack of services, active adult properties typically do not com-
mand the rent premiums of more service-enriched senior housing.
Adjusted Gross Income “AGI” – Income from taxable sources (including wages, interest, capital
gains, income from retirement accounts, etc.) adjusted to account for specific deductions (i.e.
contributions to retirement accounts, unreimbursed business and medical expenses, alimony,
etc.).
Affordable housing – Housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 80%
AMI, though individual properties can have income-restrictions set at 40%, 50%, 60% or 80%
AMI. Rent is not based on income but instead is a contract amount that is affordable to h ouse-
holds within the specific income restriction segment. It is essentially housing affordable to low
or very low-income tenants.
Amenity – Tangible or intangible benefits offered to a tenant in the form of common area
amenities or in-unit amenities. Typical in-unit amenities include dishwashers, washer/dryers,
walk-in showers and closets and upgraded kitchen finishes. Typical common area amenities in-
clude detached or attached garage parking, community room, fitness center and an outdoor pa-
tio or grill/picnic area.
Area Median Income “AMI” – AMI is the midpoint in the income distribution within a specific
geographic area. By definition, 50% of households earn less than the median income and 50%
earn more. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) calculates AMI an-
nually and adjustments are made for family size.
Assisted Living – Assisted Living properties come in a variety of forms, but the target market for
most is generally the same: very frail seniors, typically age 80 or older (but can be much
younger, depending on their particular health situation), who are in need of extensi ve support
services and personal care assistance. Absent an assisted living option, these seniors would
otherwise need to move to a nursing facility.
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At a minimum, assisted living properties include two meals per day and weekly housekeeping in
the monthly fee, with the availability of a third meal and personal care (either included in the
monthly fee or for an additional cost). Assisted living properti es also have either staff on duty
24 hours per day or at least 24-hour emergency response.
Building Permit – Building permits track housing starts and the number of housing units author-
ized to be built by the local governing authority. Most jurisdictions require building permits for
new construction, major renovations, as well as other building improvements. Building permits
ensure that all the work meets applicable building and safety rules and is typically required to
be completed by a licensed professional. Once the building is complete and meets the inspec-
tor’s satisfaction, the jurisdiction will issue a “CO” or “Certificate of Occupancy.” Building per-
mits are a key barometer for the health of the housing market and are often a leading indicator
in the rest of the economy as it has a major impact on consumer spending.
Capture Rate – The percentage of age, size, and income-qualified renter households in a given
area or “Market Area” that the property must capture to fill the units. The capture rate is cal-
culated by dividing the total number of units at the property by the total num ber of age, size
and income-qualified renter households in the designated area.
Comparable Property – A property that is representative of the housing choices iin the desig-
nated area or “Market Area” that is similar in construction, size, amenities, location and/or age.
Concession – Discount or incentives given to a prospective tenant to induce signature of a
lease. Concessions typically are in the form of reduced rent or free rent for a specific lease
term, or free amenities, which are normally charged separately, such as parking.
Contract Rent – The actual monthly rent payable by the tenant, including any rent subsidy paid
on behalf of the tenant, to the owner, inclusive of all terms of the lease.
Demand – The total number of households that would potentially move into a proposed new or
renovated housing project. These households must be of appropriate age, income, tenure and
size for a specific proposed development. Components vary and can include, but are not lim-
ited to: turnover, people living in substandard conditions, rent over-burdened households, in-
come-qualified households and age of householder. Demand is project specific.
Density – Number of units in a given area. Density is typically measured in dwelling units (DU)
per acre – the larger the number of units permitted per acre the higher the density; the fewer
units permitted results in lower density. Density is often presented in a gross and net format:
• Gross Density – The number of dwelling units per acre based on the gross site acreage.
Gross Density = Total residential units/total development area
• Net Density - The number of dwelling units per acre located on the site, but excludes
public right-of-ways (ROW) such as streets, alleys, easements, open spaces, etc.
Net Density = Total residential units/total residential land area (excluding ROWs)
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Detached housing – a freestanding dwelling unit, most often single-family homes, situated on
its own lot.
Effective Rents – Contract rent less applicable concessions.
Elderly or Senior Housing – Housing where all the units in the property are restricted for occu-
pancy by persons age 62 years or better, or at least 80% of the units in each building are re-
stricted for occupancy by households where at least one household member is 55 years of age
or better and the housing is designed with amenities, facilities and services to meet the needs
of senior citizens.
Extremely low-income – person or household with incomes below 30% of Area Median In-
come, adjusted for respective household size.
Fair Market Rent – Estimates established by HUD of the Gross Rents needed to obtain modest
rental units in acceptable conditions in a specific geographic area. The amount of rental income
a given property would command if it were open for leasing at any given moment and/or the
amount derived based on market conditions that is needed to pay gross monthly rent at mod-
est rental housing in a given area. This figure is used as a basis for determining the payment
standard amount used to calculate the maximum monthly subsidy for families on at financially
assisted housing.
Fair Market Rent – Carver County 2023
Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Ratio of the floor area of a building to area of the lot on which the
building is located.
Foreclosure – A legal process in which a lender or financial institute attempts to recover the
balance of a loan from a borrower who has stopped making payments to the lender by using
the sale of the house as collateral for the loan.
Generations – A generation is a group of people born in the same time period and raised in the
same geographic area. Generations exhibit comparable characteristics because they experi-
enced similar trends at roughly the same life stage and through similar channels. In America,
there are six living generations.
GI Generation: Born between 1901 and 1926, they came of age during the Great De-
pression and fought in World War II; also referred to as “The Greatest Generation”.
0-BR 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4-BR
$1,007 $1,149 $1,410 $1,916 $2,209Fair Market Rent
-----Fair Market Rent by Bedroom Size-----
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Mature/Silent Generation: Born between 1927 and 1945 during the Great Depression
and World War II; also referred to as “The Lucky Few”. This was a relatively small gener-
ation as their parents had fewer children due to financial insecurity and World War II.
Baby Boomers: Born just after World War II between 1946 and 1964; also referred to as
the “me” generation. Increased birth rates during the post -World War II baby boom
make this a relatively large generation.
Generation X: Born between 1965 and 1980; also referred to as the “Baby Bust” gener-
ation due to a decline in the birth rate following the baby boom.
Millennials: Born between 1981 and 2000; also known as “Generation Y”, “The 9/11
Generation”, and “Echo Boomers”. Children of baby boomers, this represents the larg-
est generation since the baby boom. Buying homes and starting families later than pre-
vious generations.
Generation Z: Born after 2001; also known as “Boomlets”, “the iGeneration”, and “Post
Millennials”. Children of Generation X and will be larger and more diverse than Baby
Boomer and Millennial generations.
Gross Rent – The monthly housing cost to a tenant which equals the Contract Rent provided for
in the lease, plus the estimated cost of all utilities paid by tenants. Maximum Gross Rents for
Carver County in 2023 are as follows:
Maximum Gross Rent
Carver County – 2023
Household – All persons who occupy a housing unit, including occupants of a single-family, one
person living alone, two or more families living together, or any other group of related or unre-
lated persons who share living arrangements.
Household Trends – Changes in the number of households for any particular areas over a meas-
urable period of time, which is a function of new household formations, changes in average
household size, and met migration.
Housing Choice Voucher Program – The federal government's major program for assisting very
low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled to afford decent, safe, and sanitary housing
0-BR 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4-BR
30% AMI $652 $699 $838 $969 $1,080
40% AMI $870 $932 $1,118 $1,292 $1,441
50% AMI $1,087 $1,165 $1,397 $1,615 $1,801
60% AMI $1,305 $1,398 $1,677 $1,938 $2,161
80% AMI $1,740 $1,864 $2,236 $2,584 $2,882
-----Maximum Gross Rents by Bedroom Size-----
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in the private market. A family that is issued a housing voucher is responsible for finding a suit-
able housing unit of the family's choice where the owner agrees to rent under the program.
Housing choice vouchers are administered locally by public housin g agencies. They receive fed-
eral funds from the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to ad-
minister the housing choice voucher program. A housing subsidy is paid to the landlord directly
by the public housing agency on behalf of the participating family. The family then pays the dif-
ference between the actual rent charged by the landlord and the amount subsidized by the pro-
gram.
Housing unit – House, apartment, mobile home, or group of rooms used as a separate living
quarters by a single household.
HUD Project-Based Section 8 – A federal government program that provides rental housing for
very low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled in privately owned and managed rental
units. The owner reserves some or all of the units in a building in return for a Federal govern-
ment guarantee to make up the difference between the tenant's contribution and the rent. A
tenant who leaves a subsidized project will lose access to the project -based subsidy.
HUD Section 202 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat-
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy by elder household who
have incomes not exceeding 50% of Area Median Income.
HUD Section 811 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat-
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy of persons with disabilities
who have incomes not exceeding 50% Area Median Income.
HUD Section 236 Program – Federal program that provides interest reduction payments for
loans which finance housing targeted to households with income not exceeding 80% Area Me-
dian Income who pay rent equal to the greater or market rate or 30% of their adjusted income.
Income limits – Maximum households income by a designed geographic area, adjusted for
household size and expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income, for the purpose of
establishing an upper limit for eligibility for a specific housing program.
Independent Living – Independent Living properties offer support services such as meals
and/or housekeeping, either on an optional basis or a limited amount included in the rents.
These properties typically dedicate a larger share of the overall building area to common areas,
in part, because the units are smaller than in adult housing and in part to encourage socializa-
tion among residents. Independent living properties attract a slightly older target market than
adult housing, typically seniors age 75 or older. Rents are also above those of the active adult
buildings, even excluding the services.
Inflow/Outflow – The Inflow/Outflow Analysis generates results showing the count and charac-
teristics of worker flows in to, out of, and within the defined geographic area.
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Low-Income – Person or household with gross household incomes below 80% of Area Median
Income, adjusted for household size.
Low-Income Housing Tax Credit – A program aimed to generate equity for investment in af-
fordable rental housing authorized pursuant to Section 42 of the Internal Revenue Code. The
program requires that a certain percentage of units built be restricted for occupancy to house-
holds earning 60% or less of Area Median Income, and rents on these units be restricted ac-
cordingly.
Market analysis – The study of real estate market conditions for a specific type of property, ge-
ographic area or proposed (re)development.
Market rent – The rent that an apartment, without rent or income restrictions or rent subsi-
dies, would command in a given area or “Market Area” considering its location, features and
amenities.
Market study – A comprehensive study of a specific proposal including a review of the housing
market in a defined market or geography. Project specific market studies are often used by de-
velopers, property managers or government entities to determine the appropriaten ess of a pro-
posed development, whereas market specific market studies are used to determine what house
needs, if any, existing within a specific geography.
Market rate rental housing – Housing that does not have any income-restrictions. Some prop-
erties will have income guidelines, which are minimum annual incomes required in order to re-
side at the property.
Memory Care – Memory Care properties, designed specifically for persons suffering from Alz-
heimer’s disease or other dementias, is one of the newest trends in senior housing. Properties
consist mostly of suite-style or studio units or occasionally one-bedroom apartment-style units,
and large amounts of communal areas for activities and programming. In addition, staff typi-
cally undergoes specialized training in the care of this population. Because of the greater
amount of individualized personal care required by residents, staffing ratios are much higher
than traditional assisted living and thus, the costs of care are also higher. Unlike conventional
assisted living, however, which deals almost exclusively with widows or widowers, a higher pro-
portion of persons afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease are in two-person households. That
means the decision to move a spouse into a memory care facility involves the caregiver’s con-
cern of incurring the costs of health care at a special facility while continuing to ma intain their
home.
Migration – The movement of households and/or people into or out of an area.
Mixed-income property – An apartment property contained either both income-restricted and
unrestricted units or units restricted at two or more income limits.
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Mobility – The ease at which people move from one location to another.
Moderate Income – Person or household with gross household income between 80% and 120%
of the Area Median Income, adjusted for household size.
Multifamily – Properties and structures that contain more than two housing units.
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing – Although affordable housing is typically associated
with an income-restricted property, there are other housing units in communities that indi-
rectly provide affordable housing. Housing units that were not developed or designated with
income guidelines (i.e. assisted) yet are more affordable than other units in a community are
considered “naturally-occurring” or “unsubsidized affordable” units. This rental supply is avail-
able through the private market, versus assisted housing programs through various governmen-
tal agencies. Property values on these units are lower based on a combination of factors, such
as: age of structure/housing stock, location, condition, size, functionally obsolete, school dis-
trict, etc.
Net Income – Income earned after payroll withholdings such as state and federal income taxes,
social security, as well as retirement savings and health insurance.
Net Worth – The difference between assets and liabilities, or the total value of assets after the
debt is subtracted.
Pent-up demand – A market in which there is a scarcity of supply and as such, vacancy rates are
very low or non-existent.
Population – All people living in a geographic area.
Population Density – The population of an area divided by the number of square miles of land
area.
Population Trends – Changes in population levels for a particular geographic area over a spe-
cific period of time – a function of the level of births, deaths, and in/out migration.
Project-Based rent assistance – Rental assistance from any source that is allocated to the prop-
erty or a specific number of units in the property and is available to each income eligible tenant
of the property or an assisted unit.
Redevelopment – The redesign, rehabilitation or expansion of existing properties.
Rent burden – gross rent divided by adjusted monthly household income.
Restricted rent – The rent charged under the restriction of a specific housing program or sub-
sidy.
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Saturation – The point at which there is no longer demand to support additional market rate,
affordable/subsidized, rental, for-sale, or senior housing units. Saturation usually refers to a
particular segment of a specific market.
Senior Housing – The term “senior housing” refers to any housing development that is re-
stricted to people age 55 or older. Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of hous-
ing alternatives. Maxfield Research Inc. classifies senior housing into four categories based on
the level of support services. The four categories are: Active Adult, Independent Living, As-
sisted Living and Memory Care.
Short Sale – A sale of real estate in which the net proceeds from selling the property do not
cover the sellers’ mortgage obligations. The difference is forgiven by the lender, or other ar-
rangements are made with the lender to settle the remainder of the debt.
Single-family home – A dwelling unit, either attached or detached, designed for use by one
household and with direct street access. It does not share heating facilities or other essential
electrical, mechanical or building facilities with another dwelling.
Stabilized level of occupancy – The underwritten or actual number of occupied units that a
property is expected to maintain after the initial lease-up period.
Subsidized housing – Housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 30%
AMI. Rent is generally based on income, with the household contributing 30% of their adjusted
gross income toward rent. Also referred to as extremely low income housing.
Subsidy – Monthly income received by a tenant or by an owner on behalf of a tenant to pay the
difference between the apartment’s contract/market rate rent and the amount paid by the ten-
ant toward rent.
Substandard conditions – Housing conditions that are conventionally considered unacceptable
and can be defined in terms of lacking plumbing facilities, one or more major mechanical or
electrical system malfunctions, or overcrowded conditions.
Target population – The market segment or segments of the given population a development
would appeal or cater to.
Tenant – One who rents real property from another individual or rental company.
Tenant-paid utilities – The cost of utilities, excluding cable, telephone, or internet necessary for
the habitation of a dwelling unit, which are paid by said tenant.
Tenure – The distinction between owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units.
Turnover – A measure of movement of residents into and out of a geographic location.
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Turnover period – An estimate of the number of housing units in a geographic location as a per-
centage of the total house units that will likely change occupants in any one year.
Unrestricted units – Units that are not subject to any income or rent restrictions.
Vacancy period – The amount of time an apartment remains vacant and is available on the
market for rent.
Workforce housing – Housing that is income-restricted to households earning between 50%
and 120% AMI. Also referred to as moderate-income housing.
Zoning – Classification and regulation of land use by local governments according to use catego-
ries (zones); often also includes density designations and limitations.
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Economic Development Commission Item
November 12, 2024
Subject Cannabis Ordinance Discussion
Section DISCUSSION / GENERAL BUSINESS ITEMS Item No: E.1
Prepared By Eric Maass, Community Development Director File No:
SUMMARY
City staff in partnership with the City Attorney's office has drafted an initial ordinance regulating
cannabis sales and manufacturing for review and discussion by the City Council and supporting
commissions.
At this time, the draft ordinance has been drafted treating retail sales of Cannabis or Hemp largely the
same way in which the sale of alcohol is regulated from a zoning standpoint. A key difference in the
draft zoning regulation of cannabis and hemp compared to the zoning regulation for alcohol is that the
draft cannabis and hemp ordinance would place a 500ft buffer requirement for new retail cannabis and
hemp businesses from existing schools or residential treatment facilities. The city also has draft
limitations for the hours of operation for retail cannabis and hemp businesses.
BACKGROUND
The City Council discussed the draft ordinance during their work session on October 28th. The City
Council agreed with the suggested zoning districts proposed for the various types of cannabis and hemp
businesses in the draft ordinance. The City Council also agreed that it would not delegate its retail
licensing authority to Carver County unless Carver County affirmed that the City of Chanhassen would
not be approved for more than the three (3) retail licenses that would be approved if the city maintained
its licensing authority. The City Council was undecided as it relates to whether or not to require
additional buffering from cannabis and hemp retail businesses which are not required for liquor or
tobacco stores.
The City Council requested additional feedback on the above topics and the draft ordinance from the
Planning Commission and Economic Development Commission as well as hoped to gain feedback from
the public hearing process associated with an amendment to the zoning ordinance.
DISCUSSION
RECOMMENDATION
341
ATTACHMENTS
Cannabis License Types
Draft Cannabis Ordinance
Cannabis EDC Presentation (Draft Only)
342
Background Information - State License Types
License Type Definition Fee Schedule
(State License)
Microbusiness Microbusinesses may cultivate cannabis and manufacture
cannabis products and hemp products and package such products
for sale to customers or another licensed cannabis business.
Microbusiness may also operate a single retail location. They can
also have on-site lounges where customers can use cannabis.
Application: $500
Initial License: $0
Renewal: $2,000
Mezzobusiness Mezzobusinesses may cultivate cannabis and manufacture
cannabis products and hemp products and package such products
for sale to customers or another licensed cannabis business.
Mezzobusiness may also operate up to three retail locations. This
license type is available in limited quantities, and licensees will be
selected through a vetted lottery.
Application: $5,000
Initial: $5,000
Renewal: $10,000
Cultivator Cultivators may cultivate cannabis and package such cannabis for
sale to another licensed cannabis business. This license type is
available in limited quantities, and licensees will be selected
through a vetted lottery.
Application: $10,000
Initial: $20,000
Renewal: $30,000
Manufacturer Manufacturers may process raw cannabis plants into various
products, such as edibles, concentrates, wax, oils, and tinctures.
Manufacturers can buy cannabis flowers, cannabis products, and
lower-potency hemp products from other cannabis businesses.
They turn these materials into cannabis products, then package
and sell them to other cannabis businesses. This license type is
available in limited quantities, and licensees will be selected
through a vetted lottery.
Application: $10,000
Initial: $10,000
Renewal: $20,000
Retailer Retailers may sell immature cannabis plants and seedlings,
cannabis, cannabis products, hemp products, and other products
authorized by law to customers and patients. They can buy
cannabis (including plants and seedlings) and lower-potency
hemp products from other cannabis businesses and sell them to
customers. This license type is available in limited quantities, and
licensees will be selected through a vetted lottery. A cannabis
retailer may operate up to five retail locations; however, no
person, cooperative, or business may hold a license to own or
operate more than one cannabis retail business in one city and
three retail businesses in one county.
Application: $2,500
Initial: $2,500
Renewal: $5,000
Wholesaler Wholesalers may purchase and/or sell immature cannabis plants
and seedlings, cannabis, cannabis products, and hemp products
from another licensed cannabis business. Wholesalers may also
import hemp-derived consumer products and lower-potency
hemp edibles.
Application: $5,000
Initial: $5,000
Renewal: $10,000
Transporter Transporters may transport immature cannabis plants and
seedlings, cannabis, cannabis products, and hemp products to
licensed cannabis businesses.
Application: $250
Initial: $500
Renewal: $1,000
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Testing Facility Testing facilities may obtain and test immature cannabis plants and
seedlings, cannabis, cannabis products, and hemp products from
licensed cannabis manufacturer and cultivator businesses to test.
They ensure these products meet safety standards.
Application: $5,000
Initial: $5,000
Renewal: $10,000
Event Organizer Cannabis event organizers plan and host events featuring cannabis,
and may allow for the sale of cannabis, cannabis products, and
lower-potency hemp products to consumers at events like festivals
(an event cannot last more than four days). An event organizer
must receive local approval, including obtaining any necessary
permits or licenses issued by a local unit of government. On-site
consumption is allowed if approved by local government, in an
access-restricted area not visible to the public and where smoking
is not otherwise prohibited.
Application: $750
Initial: $750
Delivery Service Delivery services may purchase cannabis, cannabis products, and
hemp products from retailers or cannabis business with retail
endorsements for transport and delivery directly to customers.
Application: $250
Initial: $500
Renewal: $1,000
Medical
Cannabis
Combination
Business
Medical cannabis combination businesses may cultivate cannabis
and manufacture cannabis and hemp products, and package such
products for sale to customers, patients, or another licensed
cannabis business. Medical cannabis combination businesses may
operate up to one retail location in each congressional district.
Application: $10,000
Initial: $20,000
Renewal: $70,000
LPHE
Manufacturer
Lower-potency hemp edible manufacturers may manufacture and
package lower-potency hemp edibles for consumer sale, and sell
hemp concentrate and lower-potency hemp edibles to other
cannabis and hemp businesses. This license type cannot hold any
cannabis business licenses. Sale of a product designed to be
consumed on-site requires an on-sale (liquor) license.
Application: $250
Initial: $1,000
Renewal: $1,000
LPHE Retailer Lower-potency hemp edible retailers may sell lower-potency hemp
edibles to customers. This license type cannot hold any cannabis
business licenses. Sale of a product designed to be consumed on-
site requires an on-sale (liquor) license.
Application: $250
Initial: $250
Renewal: $250
(Per retail location)
*Note that the local registration fee is limited to a maximum of half of the state fee, and not all
businesses have to register.
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CITY OF CHANHASSEN
CARVER AND HENNEPIN COUNTIES, MINNESOTA
ORDINANCE NO. XXX
AN ORDINANCE AMENDING CHAPTER 1, CHAPTER 11, AND CHAPTER 20
CHANHASSEN CITY CODE
THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CHANHASSEN, MINNESOTA ORDAINS:
Section 1. Section 1-2 of the City Code, City of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended to
include the following definitions:
Adult-Use Cannabis Product: As defined under Minnesota Statutes, section 342.01, subd.
4.
Cannabis: Any species of the genus cannabis plant, or any mixture or preparation of them
including whole plant extracts and resins.
Cannabis Business. A cannabis microbusiness, cannabis mezzobusiness, cannabis
cultivator, cannabis manufacturer, dispensary, cannabis wholesaler, cannabis transporter,
cannabis testing facility, cannabis delivery services, or medical cannabis combination
business licensed, or any use otherwise authorized, under Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Cannabis Cultivation: A cannabis business licensed for planting, growing, harvesting,
drying, curing, grading, or trimming of cannabis plants, cannabis flower, hemp plants, or
hemp plant parts by a business licensed or authorized to cultivate cannabis or medical
cannabis pursuant to Minnesota Statutes Chapter,342.
Cannabis Distribution Facility: Any building, structure, vehicle or grounds where the
storage or distribution (including either retail or wholesale distribution) of cannabis is
performed.
Cannabis Delivery Service: A person or entity licensed or otherwise authorized to purchase
cannabis flower, cannabis products, lower-potency hemp edibles, and hemp-derived
consumer products from licensed cannabis microbusinesses with a retail endorsement,
cannabis mezzobusinesses with a retail endorsement, dispensaries, medical cannabis
dispensaries, and medical cannabis combination businesses; transport and deliver cannabis
flower, cannabis products, lower-potency hemp edibles, and hemp-derived consumable
products to customers; and perform other actions pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter
342.
Cannabis Laboratory: Any permanent or temporary building or structure; any mobile
structure or vehicle; corporation; or other entity that examines, analyzes or tests samples
of cannabis and is licensed by the State of Minnesota to do so.
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Cannabis Manufacturing or Manufacturer: The process of converting or packaging
harvested cannabis plant material into medical or recreational cannabis.
Cannabis Mezzobusiness: A person or entity licensed to cultivate, manufacture, and sell
products containing cannabis and related supplies and products and perform other actions
authorized under a cannabis mezzobusiness license pursuant to Minnesota Statutes,
Chapter 342.
Cannabis Microbusiness: A person or entity licensed to cultivate, manufacture, and sell
products containing cannabis and related supplies and products and perform other actions
authorized under a cannabis microbusiness license pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter
342.
Cannabis Retailer: Any person, partnership, firm, corporation, or association, foreign or
domestic, selling cannabis product to a consumer and not for the purpose of resale in any
form.
Cannabis Retail Businesses: A state licensed retail location and the retail location(s) of a
mezzobusinesses with a retail operations endorsement, microbusinesses with a retail
operations endorsement, medical combination businesses operating a retail location,
excluding lower-potency hemp edible retailers, pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter
342.
Cannabis Testing Facility: A facility licensed to obtain and test immature cannabis plants
and seedlings, cannabis flower, cannabis products, hemp plant parts, hemp concentrate,
artificially derived cannabinoids, lower-potency hemp edibles, and hemp-derived
consumer products from cannabis microbusinesses, cannabis mezzobusinesses, cannabis
cultivators, cannabis manufacturers, cannabis wholesalers, lower-potency hemp edible
manufacturers, medical cannabis cultivators, medical cannabis processors, medical
cannabis combination businesses, and industrial hemp growers pursuant to Minnesota
Statutes, Chapter 342.
Cannabis Transporter: An entity licensed or otherwise authorized to transport immature
cannabis plants and seedlings, cannabis flower, cannabis products, artificially derived
cannabinoids, hemp plant parts, hemp concentrate, lower-potency hemp edibles, and hemp-
derived consumer products from a cannabis business to a cannabis business pursuant to
Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Cannabis or Lower-potency Hemp Edible Manufacturing: An entity licensed or
otherwise authorized for the creation of cannabis concentrate and manufacture of
cannabis products and hemp-derived consumer products for public consumption pursuant
to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342, an entity licensed or authorized to purchase hemp
and artificially derived cannabinoids to make hemp concentrate; manufacture artificially
derived cannabinoids and hemp edibles for public consumption; package and label lower-
potency hemp edibles for sale to customers; sell hemp concentrate, artificially derived
cannabinoids, and lower-potency hemp edibles to other cannabis businesses and hemp
businesses; and perform other actions pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342, or an
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entity in possession of a medical cannabis processor license pursuant to Minnesota
Statutes, Chapter 342.
Cannabis wholesaler: An entity licensed or authorized to obtain, store, and sell or
otherwise transfer cannabis or hemp seeds, plants, flower, or other products for the purpose
of resale or other transfer to a cannabis business, but not to consumers, pursuant to
Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Dispensary: An entity in possession of a cannabis retailer license or otherwise authorized
to acquire, possess, transfer, sell, dispense, or distributes products containing cannabis and
related supplies and products pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Lower-Potency Hemp Edible: As defined under Minn. Stat. 342.01 subd. 50.
Lower-potency hemp edible retailer: A person or entity licensed or authorized to acquire,
possess, transfer, sell, dispense, or distribute lower-potency hemp edible products and
related supplies and products pursuant to Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Medical Cannabis Combination Business: An entity authorized to cultivate, manufacture,
and sell cannabis, hemp, and cannabis and hemp related supplies and products, and perform
other actions authorized under a medical cannabis combination license pursuant to
Minnesota Statutes, Chapter 342.
Office of Cannabis Management: State of Minnesota Office of Cannabis Management, as
may be referred to as “OCM” in reference to this title.
Public Place: A public park or trail, public street or sidewalk; any enclosed, indoor area
used by the general public, including, but not limited to, restaurants; bars; any other food
or liquor establishment; hospitals; nursing homes; auditoriums; arenas; gyms; meeting
rooms; common areas of rental apartment buildings, and other places of public
accommodation.
Preliminary License Approval: OCM pre-approval for a cannabis business license for
applicants who qualify under Minn. Stat. 342.17.
Residential Treatment Facility: As defined under Minn. Stat. 245.462 subd. 23.
Retail Registration: Retail Registration: An approved registration issued by the City/Carver
County to a cannabis retail business.
State License: An approved license issued by the Office of Cannabis Management to a
cannabis retail business.
Section 2. Section 11-7 (a) of the City Code, City of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended
in its entirety to read as follows:
Sec 11-7 Public Use Of Cannabis And Hemp In Public Place
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No person shall use cannabis flower, cannabis products, lower potency hemp edibles, or hemp -
derived consumer products in a public place or a place of public accommodation unless the
premises is an establishment or an event licensed to permit on-site consumption of cannabis or
hemp products.
(a) Definitions. The following words, terms and phrases, when used in this chapter, shall
have the meanings ascribed to them in this section, except where the context clearly indicates
a different meaning:
Cannabis means any product containing the harvested flower, bud, leaves, or stems of a
plant of the genus Cannabis that has a delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol concentration of more
than 0.3 percent on a dry weight basis. Cannabis includes adult-use cannabis flower,
medical cannabis flower, and any derivative, concentrate, extract, resin, or other product
made from a cannabis plant.
Hemp means any product containing the harvested flower, bud, leaves, or stems of a plant
of the genus Cannabis that has a delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol concentration of no more
than 0.3 percent on a dry weight basis. Hemp includes any derivative, concentrate,
extract, resin, or other product made from a hemp plant.
Electronic Device means any product containing or delivering a substance intended for
human consumption through the inhalation of aerosol or vapor from the product.
Electronic delivery device includes but is not limited to, devices manufactured, marketed,
or sold as e-cigarettes, e-cigars, e-pipes, vape pens, mods, tank systems, or under any
other product name or descriptor.
Smoking means inhaling, exhaling, burning, or carrying any lighted or heated cigar,
cigarette, pipe, or any other lighted or heated product that is intended for inhalation.
Smoking included using an electronic delivery device.
Public Place means property owned, leased, or controlled by a governmental unit and
private property that is regularly and frequently open to or made available for use by the
public in sufficient numbers to give clear notice of the property's current dedication to
public use. Public Place does not include the following:
1) a private residence including the person’s curtilage or yard;
2) private property not generally accessible by the public, unless the person is
explicitly prohibited from consuming cannabis flower, cannabis products, lower-
potency hemp edibles, or hemp-derived consumer products on the property by the
owner of the property; or
3) the premises of an establishment or event licensed to permit on-site consumption.
b) Prohibited Activity. No person shall smoke cannabis or hemp in a public place.
c) Penalty. Violation of this section shall be a petty misdemeanor.
Section 3. Article 20, Division 20-XXXIII of the Chanhassen City Code is amended to add a
new Section 20-973 to read as follows:
Section 20-973 Reserved
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Section 20-973 Cannabis Business Uses
(a) Purpose
The purpose of this Section is to establish provisions for the opportunity as well as
controls of cannabis business uses within the City.
(b) General Performance Standards.
(1) A cannabis business must be registered in accordance with Chapter 10 of the City
Code to operate within the city.
(2) A cannabis business must provide evidence of a state license issued under
Minnesota Statues, section 342.14 and all applicable state laws and regulations.
(3) All cannabis businesses must be in compliance with the provisions of Chapter 20
of the City Code and all applicable state laws and regulations related to the operation
of the cannabis business.
(4) Advertising
a. The size, number, and location of signs for cannabis businesses must meet
the regulations of the City of Chanhassen’s sign ordinance.
(c) Performance Standards for Cannabis Uses in Commercial Zoning Districts
(1) The cannabis business shall be conducted entirely with a principal structure and
all outside storage is prohibited.
(2) All waste and recycling containers shall be kept within a principle or accessory
building.
(3) Hours of operation: ten o’clock (10:00) AM to ten o’clock (10:00) PM.
(4) Sufficient measures and means of preventing any gas, vapors, odors, smoke,
debris, dust, fluids or other substances from exiting a cannabis business shall be
provided for at all times.
(5) Cannabis cultivations shall not be perceptible from the exterior of the building in
which cultivation occurs.
(6) Minimum Buffer Requirements
a. The City shall prohibit the operation of a cannabis business within 500 feet
of a school or residential treatment facility in the Highway Business
District, Central Business District, and General Business District.
b. Nothing in Section shall prohibit an active cannabis business or a cannabis
business seeking registration from continuing operation at the same site if
a school, or residential treatment facility that is regularly used by minors
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moves within the minimum buffer zone.
(7) Security:
a. Burglary alarm systems with audible and police notification components that
are professionally monitored and maintained in good working condition shall
be installed on all doors, windows, and access points.
b. Surveillance cameras shall be installed and operate twenty-four (24) hours a
day, seven (7) days a week, with thirty (30) day video storage, to monitor all
entrances and trash receptacles, along with the interior and exterior of the
premises shall be required.
c. Exterior lighting shall be required sufficient for observers to see and for
cameras to record, that is either constantly on or activated by motion
detectors.
d. Deadbolt locks shall be installed and utilized on all exterior doors and locks
shall be installed on all other windows or access points.
e. Additional security requirements including, but not limited to, security
guards, fencing, steel doors, and steel window coverings may be required as
determined by city staff.
(d) Performance standards for Cannabis Uses in Industrial Zoning Districts
(1) The cannabis business shall be conducted entirely with a principal structure and
all outside storage is prohibited.
(2) All waste and recycling containers shall be kept within a principle or accessory
building.
(3) Hours of operation: seven o’clock (7:00) AM to ten o’clock (10:00) PM. Retail
operation (microbusiness license only) is limited to ten o’clock (10:00) AM to ten
o’clock (10:00) PM.
(4) All on-site consumption of cannabis (in a microbusiness licensed facility only)
shall be entirely indoors.
(5) Sufficient measures and means of preventing any gas, vapors, odors, smoke,
debris, dust, fluids or other substances from exiting a cannabis business shall be
provided for at all times.
(6) Cannabis cultivation shall not be perceptible from the exterior of the building in
which cultivation occurs.
(7) Security:
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a. Burglary alarm systems with audible and police notification components that
are professionally monitored and maintained in good working condition shall
be installed on all doors, windows, and access points.
b. Surveillance cameras are required and must operate twenty-four (24) hours
a day, seven (7) days a week, with thirty (30) day video storage, to monitor
all entrances and trash receptacles, along with the interior and exterior of the
premises.
c. Exterior lighting shall be required sufficient for observers to see and for
cameras to record, that is either constantly on or activated by motion
detectors.
d. Deadbolt locks shall be installed and utilized on all exterior doors and locks
shall be installed on all other windows or access points.
e. Additional security requirements including, but not limited to, security
guards, fencing, steel doors, and steel window coverings may be required
as determined by city staff.
(8) Vehicles:
a) All vehicles stored on site shall comply with provisions in Chapter 20 of
this title and shall be enclosed in a secured fenced area. No non-business
related vehicles shall be stored on site.
Section 4. Section 20-712 of the City Code (“BH” Highway and Business Servies District,
Permitted Uses), City of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended to add the following uses
alphabetized accordingly within the Section:
Cannabis Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20, Section 973.
Cannabis Medical Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20,
Section 973.
Lower-potency hemp edible retailer.
Section 5. Section 20-732 of the City Code, (“CBD” Central Business District, Permitted Uses),
City of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended to add the follow uses alphabetized
accordingly within the Section:
Cannabis Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20, Section 973.
Cannabis Medical Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20,
Section 973.
Lower-potency hemp edible retailer.
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Section 6. Section 20-752 of the City Code (“BG” General Business District, Permitted Uses),
City of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended to add the following uses alphabetized
accordingly within the Section:
Cannabis Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20, Section 973.
Cannabis Medical Retailer/Dispensary meeting performance standards of Chapter 20,
Section 973.
Lower-potency hemp edible retailer.
Section 7. Section 20-812 of the City Code (“IOP” Industrial Office Park, Permitted Uses), City
of Chanhassen, Minnesota, is hereby amended to add the following uses alphabetized
accordingly within the Section:
Cannabis Businesses: cultivator (including medical), manufacturer (including medical
and lower potency Hemp edible), mezzobusiness, testing facility, and wholesaler meeting
the performance standards in Chapter 20, Section 973.
Cannabis Businesses: microbusiness, medical combined transporter and delivery service,
transporter and delivery service meeting the performance standards in Chapter 20,
Section 973.
Section 9. This ordinance shall be effective immediately upon its passage and publication.
PASSED AND ADOPTED this ___day of _____, 2024, by the City Council of the City
of Chanhassen, Minnesota
______________________________ ________________________________
Jenny Potter, City Clerk Elise Ryan, Mayor
(Published in the _________________________ on ______________________________)
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Cannabis Ordinance Discussion
City Council Work Session: October 28, 2024
353
City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Tentative Schedule:
-City Council Work Session (Oct 28th)
-Economic Development Commission (Nov 12th)
-Planning Commission (Nov 19th)
-Planning Commission Public Hearing (Dec 3rd)
-City Council Adoption (Dec 9th)
354
City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Scope
Cities Shall:
•Implement local zoning controls
for cannabis retail and industrial
uses
•Set a number of local retail
licenses to be issued.
Cities Shall Not:
•Limit number of retail licenses
below three
•Limit zoning in a way that would
ban cannabis sales
•Implement a local sales tax
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Local Licensing Authority
•City may limit the number of cannabis retail registrations to 1 per 12,500
persons in population.
•The City Council decided that they would only delegate licensing authority to Carver County, if
the County maintains that Chanhassen would only receive a maximum of 3 cannabis retail
registrations as that is the amount that would be allowed if the City maintains its registration
authority.
•A maximum of 13 cannabis retail registrations for Carver County. Unknown if the County would
maintain the individual city maximums.
•Carver County Board of Commissioners scheduled to consider their cannabis
ordinance on November 19.
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
State License Types
•Commercial
•Cannabis Retailer (Dispensary) and LPHE Retailer
•Medical Cannabis Combination Business
•Medical Retailer
•Industrial
•Cultivator
•Medical Cultivator
•Cannabis Manufacturer / LPHE Manufacturer
•Testing Facility
•Transporter
•Wholesaler
•Both
•Microbusiness
•Mezzobusiness
•Other
•Event Organizer
•Delivery Service
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Category Use State License Type Use Zoning
District(s)
Notes
Cannabis Retail/Dispensary
Business
-Retailer - Permitted - BH*
- CBD*
- BG*
Aligns with districts that allow liquor stores as a permitted use
Cannabis Manufacturing
Business
-Medical Combination
Business
-Cultivator
- Manufacturer
- Transporter
-Testing Facility
-Manufacturing Facilities with
Attached Retail Businesses
- Permitted - IOP Odor, use standards, externalities compatible with other industrial
uses, e.g., greenhouses and manufacturing, should be considered.
Light Industrial business operations are permitted in the IOP zoning
district.
Hemp Retail Business -Lower potency hemp edible
retail
- Permitted - BH*
- CBD*
- BG*
Combined operations of hemp manufacturing and retail.
Hemp Manufacturing
Business
-Lower potency hemp edible
manufacturing
-Manufacturing Facilities with
Attached Retail Businesses
- Permitted - IOP Combined operations of hemp manufacturing and retail.
Odor, use standards, externalities compatible with other industrial
uses.
Other -Cannabis event organizer - Permitted - N/A Events are permitted at businesses with on-sale alcohol licenses.
Only hemp derived cannabinoid products are permitted to be sold
on-site. All products must be consumed inside licensed premises.
* Potential for 500ft buffer from any school or residential treatment facility
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Cannabis & Hemp
Retail Businesses
Permitted Zoning Districts:
•Highway Business District (BH)
•General Business District (BG)
•Central Business District (CBD)
Potential Buffer:
•500 feet from schools and residential treatment
facilities (yellow areas on map)
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Cannabis & Hemp
Manufacturing Businesses
Permitted Zoning Districts:
•Industrial Office Park District (IOP)
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
Cannabis Event Permitting
•Processed similarly to all other event permits
Restrictions
•Draft ordinance proposes limiting events to
locations with on-sale alcohol licenses (25
existing)
•Draft ordinance proposes limiting on-site
consumption to hemp-derived cannabinoid
edibles
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
EDC Feedback
Buffer Requirement
Hours of Operation Limitations
362
City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
EDC Feedback
Buffer Requirement
Currently liquor stores and tobacco stores do not require a buffer of 500 ft from schools or residential
treatment facilities.
•Should the City stay consistent and not require a buffer for retail cannabis or treat
cannabis retailers differently and enact a 500 ft buffer from schools and residential
treatment facilities?
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
EDC Feedback
Hours of Operation Limitations
Currently off sale liquor hours of operations by City Code/State Statute. Mn Statute 340A.504
•Mon – Sat: 8:00 am - 2:00 am •Sun - 11:00 am – 6:00 pm
Currently off sale retail cannabis hours of operation by State Statute. Mn Statute 342.27
•Mon – Sat: 8:00 am – 2:00 am •Sun - 10:00 am – 2:00 am
A city may restrict Cannabis retail hours down to….•Mon – Sat: 10:00 am – 9:00 pm•Sun - 10:00 am – 9:00 pm
1.Should the City revise its ordinances and only place time of sale limitations as those imposed by State Statute? i.e. No additional city restrictions on liquor? No additional city restrictions on cannabis?
OR 2.Should the City further restrict the time of day allows for retail cannabis but leave liquor hours as is?
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City of Chanhassen
A Community for Life
General Questions and
Discussion
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