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01-24-90 Agenda and Packet - Special Meetingfrlz AGENDA SPECIAL MEETING CHANHASSEN PLANNING COMMISSION WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 24, L990, 6:30 P.M. CHANHASSEN CITY HALL, 690 COULTER DRIVE 1. Review of Lanil Use Goals andl Policies. 2. Discussion on final draft of the Land Use Plan and draft of the Dta jor street Plan. 3. Review of Land Use element (partial draft) - 4. Review of Population, Eousehold, and Emplolment Element. 5. Approval of Adoption Scheilule. lPizza will be provided for Commissioners) \ CH[NH[SEEN 690 COULTER DRIVE . PO. BOX 147 . CHANHASSEN, MINNESOTA 55317 (512) 937-1900. FAX (612) 937-s739 II{EUORANDUM TO: Planning Commi ss ion FROM: Paul Krauss, Director of Planning DATE: January 18, 19 90 SUBJ: coals and Policies Several of the sections have already had goal and policy state- ments recently developed and revieued and these will be incor-porated as drafted. In addition, during my review of existinggoals and policy statements containetl in the current plan I have concluded that many continue to be valid or could be improvetl through minor changes and updating. The entire set of goals andpolicies will be assembletl for review in the near future. CITY OF As you are aware, rre have had several previous attempts atgenerating Land Use coals anil Policies. Those listed below represent that most current ilraft that incorporates materialdrafted by Steve Emmings, staff and policies contained in theexisting pJ,an. We invision this fitting into a format similar tothe one contained in the current p1an, i.e.: - Community Development - Natural Resources - Housing- Recreation- Utilites- Land Use - Transpoltation- Community Facilities, anil- Solid lilaste Maragement SUBJECT : GOAL : DISCUSSION: POLlCIES: LAND USE ACHIEVE A MIXTURE OF DEVELOP!{ENT WHICH WILL ASSURE A HIGH OUALITY OF LIFE AND A RELIABLE TAX BASE Chanhassen's land use to date has been pri- marily agricultural and single family residen-tial . In recent years, the City has been successful in attracting an increasing base ofindustrial uses and has seen the redevelopment and expansion of its commercial central busi- ness ali str ict. Develop and maintain the Cityis land use plan so that it is utilized as a fundamental toolfor directing the communityrs grotrth. Recognizing that some uses pay their way terms of the property taxes they generate some uses do not, Chanhassen wilL strive mixture of development which will assurefinancial well being. in andfor aits ade- use a Growth will be encouraged within the MUSA line and at the same time Chanhassen will plan the reasonable andl orderly expansion of the UUSAline to meet its neeal for additional developable 1and. Chanhassen will continue to encourage the expansion of commercial uses in the central business district. Commercial development outside the central business district and itsfringe wiII be minimizeil until development ofthe central business district and fringe arelargely completed. The City wilL seek opportunities to providetransitions between uses of different typesithe more incompatible the neighboring uses,the more important the transition zone. Fo! example, naEural features may provide gootltransitions between incompatible uses or usesof moderate intensity can provide transitions between high intensity and 1ow intensity uses. Development should be phased in accordancerrith the ability of the City to provide ser-vicesi developnent should occur in areas where services are available before extendingservices to new areas. Development should bequate internal streetplan shouldl also seek planned to provide linkages. The landto direct growth in manner that makes the most efficient use ofthe area's highiray system. Development should be planned to avoid running high traffic volumes and,/ or nonresidential traffic throughresidential neighborhoods. The Lanil use plan will be utilized to facili-tate the Cityrs efforts to anticipate future needs for open space, roads, parks, schools,utilites, etc., anal make adequate provisionsfor them prior to the time they are needed. The Ru!a1 Service Area shall be preserved as an agricultural zone or used to support very 1owpoli ture the and denscytlvd expa i ndu ily development. It is the Cityrso ensure that this area is not prema-eveloped. The City will discourage nsion or construction of conmercialstrial facilities in this area. Chanhassen wiII encourage the preservation andadaptive reuse of structures of historic andarchitectural signif icance. The City wilL maintain a comprehensive andcurrent set of development codes to ensurethat development is consistent r{ith the planwhile resulting in high quality, sensitiveprojects. LAND USE PLAN Copies of the revised draft Land Use Plan known as Alternative No. 2 have been attached to this packet. There are several changes and issues which should be considered during your reviewof the pIan. Staff had discussions with the property owner rrho ordns the parcel located immediately west. of Lake Ann Park(Gorra), north of Hwy. 5. This area had been previouslyillustrated as being developed with high density housing in itsentirety. The owner indicated that he did not object to the highdensity development along Hwy. 5 but felt that the land closerto the lake contained topography that was more suitable to 1owdensity development. Staff reviewetl background on this site and agreed with the ownerrs opinion. This revision is reflected onthe plan which illustrates low density housing close to Lake Ann. hle believe that there is a little break line between the low andhigh density areas in the form of a series of knol1s that wouldserve as a reasonable line to divide the uses. Staff also considered the site located west of Hwy. 41 and northof 82nd Street. This area is surrounded on the north and i{est bythe lrlinnesota Landscape Arboretum with industrial ilevelopnentoccurring immediately south of the property in Chaska and pro- posed to occur in Chanhassen to the east across Hwy. 41. Thisparcel had not received any discussion previously. Upon furtherreview, we concluded that this area could reasonably acconmodateindustrial development based on its terrain and on the fact thatit fronts on a major highway and is surrounded by industrial development on trro sides. Again, this change is reflected in theplan. The third change occurs in the vicinity of Bandimere Park locatedeast of Hwy. I01 and south of Lyman Boulevard. The park Locationhas been shifted some$rhat to the west. It is believed that this would produce a more optimal site for park developnent and wouldnot scatter residential development along Hwy. 101. The final factor is one that is not reflected on the plan at thistime. There has been much consideration about using Bluff Creekto serve as the dividing line between industrial and resiilential development in the vicinity of the Timberwood EstaCes subilivision south of Hwy. 5. Upon further investigation, we note that theoriginal trail plan that has been approved by the Park andRecreation Commission utilizeil the irest branch of the creek asthe trail corridor whereas, our land use plan assumes using theeast branch as the dividing line between industrial anil resiilen-tial use. Staff will further discuss this issue with the Planning Commission at the January 24th meeEing. LAND USE ELEMENT - DTaft TCXT The first draft of the partial text of the land use element has been provided for your review. There is one change that should be noted that will be discussed at the neeting. The resitlential land capacity and development anticipatecl a maximum density of I2 units per acre in the calculations. This is due to the fact that the highest density resiclential district in the city at this time is the R-12 District. The city Council has just tlirected staff to prepare an R-16 District to acconmoclate higher tlensity apart- ment development. This revised ordinance needs to be factored into this analysis ancl may result in additional dwelling capac i ty . (1/e0) PROJECTED RESIDETITIAL I{II Four residential density categories Plan.are used in the Comprehensive RESIt)ENTIAL.LARGE L()T R-LL Devel opments within this cate gory 0 ee er arge 'lot estates or rura l, agricultur ally I e or i ent ed dwel I i ngs. For f utu re land use projection purposes r dnaverage net density of 2.5 acr es per unit will be us ed. Lar ge lotresidential is pres ent I y found general ly south of L yman Boulevard.0ther areas of 1a rge lo t res identia l exist north of TH 5 along LakeLucy Road and south of TH 5, east of Galpin Boulev a rd . Large 1ot res idential developments are subject to a minimum lotsize of 2.5 acres with an overall density iimitation of one unitper ten acres. New Iarge lot residential iubdlvisions pro'l iferatedin 1987 -immediate'ly-prior to enactment of a one unit ier ten acredensity I imitation in the zoning -code. Due to the curient densityrestriction, .ma jor expansions of the R-LL use category are noiexpected. Future-growth in .th. i.s category. wjll be satisfied by thesupply of vacant lots in existing subdifisions. det L.2 per of RESIt)ENTIAL-L()U DENSITY R.L The predominate type of develo pment l{IN e res en a ow density categor y is sing'le familyached hous i ng. l{et de nsities with in this category range fromto 4.0 units per ac re with an ayera ge net flgure of 2.5 unitsacre. For projection of Iand deman d, an average gross density2.3 dwel I ing units per acre wilI be used in this plan. RESIDENTIAL-MEDIUH DENSITY R-tl The medium density designation s n o accommo e mu le uni ts including torrnhouses andap 'I ower density apartments.A n et dens ity range of 4.0 8.0 unitsper acre is covered by thls cate gory with an expected avera ge netdensity of 6.0 units per acre. F or project i on purposes, an a veragegross density of 4.6 dwellinclassification.g units per acre ls used fo r th i s are v llarket conditions cons t i tute one of the strongest individua linfluences on housing. type. _ Elergy costs, financing costs,mater i a l costs, l and prices and i nfl afion have s.ignif icanI impaction buyer preferences. In order to forecast a r-easonab l e futurehousing composition, density c lassifications must be defined, Since -housing types are difficult to forecast, the Chanhassen .land use plan will focus.on . d e n s i ty . r a ttl e r. than specifying housingtypes. This is intended.to prov.ide flexibility in the de-velopmenipr0cess to accommodate changes in housing styies. en e ( (l/e0) RESIDEI{TIAL-HI GH DEI{S ITY The high density cate gory which i nc I udesunits with a rn'arImum n et density of 12.0 units per acreaccommodates apartments a nd high er density condominium units.llithin this category, an average gross dens i t y of 8.0 units peracre has been used for pro ject i on purposes. 2000 AN0 2OO5 HOUSING UNIT },IIX 2 Residentia l - Res i dent i a I -Residential - Res idential - Large Lot (R-LL Low Dens ity (R- lled i um 0ensitJ High Density (R ) L) ( R-lr) -H) LATID COTSU}IPTIOII FORECAST Gross I ut i I i z i n consumpt housing project i needs for 2000, 2005 and 20l() can be calculatede defined unit mixes and density characteristics. Landforecasts have been prepared - for each of the th rei .projections found within the p1an. The housing unitinclude the following: and BasisIH 2I2 4.75-5.5 6.3 gth i on unit 0ns 1990 - 2010 H0usING Ut{IT PROJECTI()NS 1990 2000 2005 20104nlT 575r[ 6;?RT Tr 1, !?g 6,933 9,062 I I ,8434,458 8,2L2 I I ,145 t5;t27 consistent with the inf-ormation- presented in the population, Employment and Household sectioh, this plan wili'-oresenti nformat i on on all three of the household piojections' brli'wiIlemphasize the 4.75-5.5X projections for planni-ng pr"poses-. Byapplying.the anticipated mix-percentages ahd averigi o,iniiiies toprojected housing unit growth, the foilowing residintia.l land !jnS.l . family hous i ng h.as lr.istorically been the mainstay ofchanhassen's..housi.ng siock.. The percentige of sinfie iJriiy-rnitscompared to the entire housing base has be6n reasonibly stabie overthe past 20 years. Chanhassen's adopted -goals-..a-nd policies call for a diversii of Igytr-iS- ty?..r ll9 sty.les. Uh.ile providing this diversity, tfre tityhas also established a policy of_ being primarily a loir densit!community, co-nsisting primarily of sinjle family -oetactreo -units-. In support of. this pol.icy,.Chi-nhassen,-s l9g0 c-omprefririive planadopted a desired housing mix for the years 1990 ind 2000. ttrisstated mix will evenfually result- in the aifoiiiion ofapproximately 757 of the community's residential land into ttre towdensity classification. This nrix- assumption which ii siiieo ueto*al so forms the basis for I and consumption forecasts- ---- It 652 28X 6X (l/eo) 3 demand is anticipated. This figure includes a 502 overage ln totalland to account for market f'l exibillty, large wetland- areas andfuture community park growth. Bas i s IH 2t2 4.75-5.5 6.3 Type Acres Acres Acres Residential - Res i de n t i a 1 - Residential -Residential - ) L) ( R-M) -H) Large Lot (R-LL L o!, Dens ity (R- l,led i um Density High Density (R TOTAL 68 639 138 l7_Trz 135 L266 273 33-Tru7 194 1808 390 48z44t 2OOO - 2OO5 RESII)ENTIAL LATID DEI.IAND Bas i s TH 2t2 4.75-5.5 6.3 Acres Acres Acres Residential Residential Residential Residential - Large Lot (R-LL- Low Density (R-- Medium Density- High Density (R TOTAL ) L) ( R-r.r) -H) 45 435 95 t2TF7 95 903 195 24_TTT7 131 1243 267 33-T674 2()O5.2O1() RESIDENTIAL LAND DEMAND Basis TH 212 4.75-5.5 6.3 e Acres Acres Acres Res identiaI - Res identia l -Residential -Residential - ) L) ( R-r,r) -H) Large Lot (R-LL Low Dens ity (R- lled i um 0ensity High Density (R TOTAL ltA ilA ilA t{Af,ir 180 16 88 363 45azT6 1988 - 2010 C()tIP0SITE RESI0ENTIAL LAt'lD 0EtlAND Bas i s rH 2t2 4.75-s.5 6.3 Type Acres Acres Acres Res ident i a l -Residential -Residential - ( 1988 ( 1988 ( 1988 - 2000)- 200s )- 2010) 862 1449 ilA t7 0t 2924 45r5 24404ll4 6390 1988 - 20OO RESIDEI{TIAL LAND DE''IAND e 126 1r79 254 32-T597 (l/e0) TH 212 EIS City (4.75-5.5) City (5.3) 4 Based upon the three sources of housing unit projections, Chanhassen will need an additional 862 to 2,440 acrei oi Iand t6 accommodate residential growth by the year 2000. By 2005, 1,449to 4,1l4 acres of additional Iand nill be needed and Uy 20i0,-thetotal land requirement will range from 4,515 to 6,390 icres.' RESIDEilTIAL TAIIO DEI{AND At the end of 1988, the City of Chanhassen estimated that the totalvacant residential land within the confines of the exist.ing l,lUSA'I ine was 723 acres. This supply is insufficient to accommodaie theCity's 2000,2005 and 2010 projected residential growth. Theshortfal l in residential growth ranges from 139 acres to 1,717acres for the time period up to 2000, from 726 acres to 3,391 acresfrom 1988 -2005 and from 3,792 acres to 5,667 acres by 20I0. If even the most conservative of these residential est imates isaccepted, expansion of the l,lUSA line prior to 2000 will benecessary to accommodate future res idential growth. The chartbelow graphically illustrates the remaining supply of residentialIand under each of the three scenar i os. Depletion of Residential Land Supply E E EiltrET lBmr TET BIIE f, E IrET IEIII # IIBI E BE E EAE B E E B E E B EI R] lr EE8l B! E E B EI EE ErlI E B E E PLAN SCHEDULE We have attached a copy of a proposed schedule for completion ofthe comprehensive plan. The schetlule is ambitious and anticipa-tes a very high volume of effort on behalf of the Planning Commission and other bodies reviewing the document betiveen noi, and summer. It is our goal to get a copy of the plan draft tothe lrletropolitan Council by July, whereupon they would start the 90 day review process required for major plan amendments. population, households and employment (l/e0) I NT RODUCT I () N Population, households and employment are important components ofcommunity planning efforts. The projected growth of a community,spopulation and employment bases is ind.icative of land allocati-onsnecessary to accommodate-.expected building and development. Manyof the key sections of Chanhassen,s Compiehensive plin are base-dupon th-e population, household and employment projections that arefound in this chapter. Types and amounts of land use, locationsof. parks, required sanitary sewer capacity and changes to theexisting roadway netrrork are al l quantilied based- on theseprojections. Chanhassen's future growth is dependent on state, regionat andlocal -pol icies and market conditions, Regional pLt icies in theTwin City Metropol itan Area are formu'l ated by tLe iletroool itanCouncil. The Me-tropol.itan Council.s policies -are implemented bythe. age-ncy itself and in cooperation with a variely of otheiregional agencies such as the Metropolitan yaste control commission(MI,ICC), the.Regional Transit Board (RTB), etc. The pol.icies andimplementation techniques adopted- and utilized' by thesejurisdictions have a prof o-u-nd impact on Chanhassen,s futur6 growth. l:*g..capacity and -the allocation of sewer capacity is an- issuethat. is. beyond lo_cal control. Therefore, Chanhassei.s growth isrequired to comply with capacity restrictions and li6itationsimposed by regional agencies. Local pol icies and mar k et conditions are al so critical comoonentsof Chanhassen's future growth. The city,s attitude on gr6wth asreflected -by the goa-1 s and pol icies inclurled elsewhere in ihis plan'is one of advocating well planned growth. This position isconsistent with chanhassen's physical iocation in the iouthwesternportion of the Twin City l,letropol itan Area which has been a leadinggrowth area for the past 15 years. POPULATIO}I OVERYIETI chanh.assen ras incorporated in its present configuration in 1967.|t that time, a merger took place between ine old town ofchanhassen and the surr-ounding township. This merger increased thearea of the community from 2 square miies to over-ZZ square mi.les. Chanhassen Township was orga-nized in Hay of lg5g and by 1g90, thetownship's popu_1 ation was listed at 68j. After the li67 merger,the city's population w-as estimated at 4,112 people. By 1970,-th6total -number of pe_opl-e l iving- in Chanhasien hid iisen t6 4,879 andby 1980, the population had increased to 6,359. 1980 cErsus The most The data recent census for the City of Chanhassen occurred in l9gO.available through the 1980 census presents cornprehensive phe-1 The most recent regional projections for municipalities andcounties are found in the Metropol itan Counci l's iiletropol itan Development Investment Framework (MDIF) as adopted September 26,1986. The iIDIF identifies a metropolitan area 1980 population of1,985,873 and 1990 and 2000 estimates of 2,204t000 and 2,310,000respectively. Carver County's 1980 population was 37,046 w'ith a 1990 estimate of 44,600 and a 2000 estimate of 48,290. From 1980to 1988, Chanhassen's population expanded at a rate of 592. This compares to the 1980 to 1990 l.lDIF projected growth rates for Carver County and the metropolitan area of 20X and llX respectivelJ. CHAIHASSEII PR()JECTIOT{S Population forecasts for Chanhassen have been compiled by severalsources. The HDIF projections prepared in 1986 identified a 1990projected population of 9,000 and a 2000 population of 10,000. Bythe lletropolitan Council's own estimates, both the 1990 and 2000project ions trere surpassed in the mid to l ate 1980' s. Correspond ingly, the lletropol itan Counc i l 's demographers rev isedtheir estimates in 1988 as a part of the review of the base phe-2 (r/e0) demographic information, however, unfortunately this informationis now dated and only valuable in providin! a base for theproj ect i on of existing conditions and the extrapol at i on of f uturetrends. According to the 1980 data, Chanhassen had 6,359 residents; 3,279males and 3,080 females. !linority population constituted oniy i.2Zof the total popu 1at i on. An ana lys i s of the age statistics rivea I sthat the Chanhassen population is young with a median age of 29.5years with 36% of the. p-opulation under the age of -20. Agebreakdowns^are- important in the prov.i sion of community servicei,particularly for items such as park facilities wheie provideifacilities need to match the des i res of specific age grd,ups. Abreakdown of the 1980 population by age groups (cohorIs) tan befound on the chart entitled l9B0 Age 0istiibution. Since 1980 Chanhassen has undergone significant growth. Most of Chanhas.sen' s.g-rowth is attributable to ih-migration. The communityis a desirable place to live and the residential market hairesponded _by o-f f ering consumers a choice of numerous housingdevelopments. Correspondingly, residential growth as measured b! new housing starts reached record amounts in the late l9g0,s. The 14etropol itan Council compiles annual estimates of local popu I at i ons. Accordi ng to their estimates, Chanhassen had anestimated population in April of 1988 of 9,225. In reviewingbuilding permit data for the ba lance of 1988, Chanhas sen estimateiit's year encl 1988 population at 10,100 assuming a 5Z vacancy rate. RE6IOI{AL AIID COUT{TY PROJECTIO}IS phe-3 ,o9€,male female , total , 485 521 654 654 508 532 654 576 398 372 313 253 125 111 84 119 ocrooooooEoSoloobo;eGlGaGlGl!a 1980 Age Distribution E E E @ o-4 5-9 10- 14 15- 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ oooooooooloorooooolG'o(\l6lrFF (1/e0) information being assembled for the preparation of theEnvironmental Impact Statement. The revised estimates call 2000 population of 15,000 and a 2005 population of l7,500. phe-4 rH 2t2for a Pop pr i is ulation projections are derived from household data. Therefore,or to discussing Chanhassen's anticipated population growth, itf i rst appropri ate to take a closer l ook at anticipated householdgrowth. HOU SEH OLO S In Chanhassen, househ o1d size is decreas i ng in respons e to changesin household composit ion. In 1970, Chanhassen had an average of3.59 persons per household. By 1980, the number of people per household had fallen to 3.04. In 1988, it was estimated that thehousehold population had decreased to 2.7 people per unit. Household population is expected to remain at about 2.7 people perunit through 2000 and drop sl ightly to 2.65 by 2010. As part of the revised estimates prepared by the l,letropol itanCouncil for the TH zLZ EIS, household projections were completed. The fol lowing is a presentat i on of those est imates: H()USEH()LD PROJECTI()NS - },IETR()POLITAN COUNCIL Aoency 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 E6ETounci I ZII53 Tfi74 5754 6-FEl -[r In 1986, Chanhassen completed a report entitled Year 2000 Land Use and Transportation Study analyzing transportation in and aroundit's downtown area, That report contained a methodology for the preparat i on of hous eho l d and population proj ect i ons that is being appl ied to this plan update. The methodology used in the transportati on and land use report assumed that Chanhassen's households will experience a net increase of approximately 4.75Xper year from 1987 through 2000 and a 5.5X annual net increaseafter 2000. The increase in the average annual net householdincrease after 2000 is indicative of the tighten ing supply of vacant avai lable Iand in Eden Prairie. Application of the 4.75 - 5.5X annua'l household growth rate resultsin the fo l Iowi ng projections: 0ver the past 20 years, the composition of Chanhassen's householdshas followed nat i ona l and regional trends. These trends haveresulted in a significant expansion of what was once characterizedas non-traditional households such as those headed by singleparents and those involving unre l ated individual s. Accordi ng to Metropol itan Council estimates prepared in 1988, non-traditional househo lds account for almost 70 percent of the regional new household growth. Single parent families are expected to accountfor 19 percent of the new household growth from 1985 to 2000. phe-5 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTI()NS 4.751 5.52 ANNUAL INCREASE 1990 2000 2005 2010T37g 69-J3 E.;J.62 TrTqr Chanhas sen's i n crease in popu 1at i on and h ous eho I ds is a relativelyrecent phenomenon. From 1980 to 1988, the city,s population grewby 59X. 0n an annual basis, the increase amounted to 6.31. Theprevious decade is not normal ly a suffic ient amount of time toestablish a historic trend. In Chanhassen's case, however, theyears prior to 1980 are not indicative of the community,s recentg!owth nor it's future growth potential. The current conf igurationof the community's corporate boundaries did not even occur until1967. The following is a summary of household growth from 1980 - 1988. AoencvrlE- YEAR PERCEI{T INCREASE rate of 6.31 results 198 0 1981 198 2 198 3 1984 1985 1986 198 7 1988 99 24 21 104 t52 265 26? 323 4L2 4. 3X r .0x .9X 4.0x 6. 0x 9.9X 8.9C 10.0ull .7x Continuation of the 1980 - 1988 annual growthin the fol lowing household projections: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTI()NS . 6.3U ANNUAL INCREASE 198 0 Tg4s 2000 87Tz 2olo'EfzT199 0 E{5s llhen Chanhassen assembled it,s 1980 Comprehensive plan, the Cityprepared population project i ons th at were.higher than those of thel,letropol itan Council. In retrospect, the 1990 estimates preparedby the l.letropol itan Counci I were low and the 1990 eitiiratesprepared by Chanhassen were high. These projections were valuable, !9weye1, in establ ishing a range. This range enhanced th;flexibility of Chanhassen,s 1980 plan. A range,will again be used in this plan to portray population andhousehoid grou-th. The three sources of houiehold growthprojections wilI be used to estab l i sh the ranqe of oro-iectedpopulation..growth.. In- alI cases, population i; calcJtat-ea byapplying .the numbgr of households to the expected occupancycharacteristics and accounting for a 5I yacancy rate. (1/e0) AoencvrTE- POPULATI Oil I980 2;283 # OF HOUSEH()LDS 200 5rr]t45 phe-6 (1/eo) Application of a household occupancy rate of 2.7 persons per unitto the Metropolitan Council's TH 212 household projections yields the fol lowing anticipated population level s: POPULATI()N PROJECTI()NS -'.IETROP()LITAI{ COUNCIL Aoencv 1980 tr{6:fCtunc i I 635e 1990 2000TfFoo T5troo 2010 Chanhassen's 4.751 to 5.5t 2005 Tf,Soo Utilizing 2.7 persons per unit (2.65 in 2010), household estimates based on growth ranging fromyield the fol lowing population estimates: POPULATION PROJECTI()NS 4.757 - 5.5T ANI'IUAL INCREASE Aoencvrffr 2010 83781980 1990635e TEIoo 2000 2005TF83 T2.44 P()PULATI()N PR()JECTI()NS . 6.3C ANNUAL INCREASE Ao en c vrlE-199 0ff, {35 1980 6;3'5e 2000Zm63 2005 Z5]5s7 2010 3E3oo PROJECTION CO}IPOSITE Given strong economic conditions, any'of the three population and household projections presented in the preceding text areattainable. Realistically, however, sustained growth at the 6.3X annual rate is not l ikely to occur. From the city's perspective,the likely scenario is the realization of the 4.757 -5.51projections which represent the rnid range numbers. This plan will cont inue to present information based on al'l three sets ofprojections with an emphasis on the mid range projections. This establishes a planning framework which is readily adaptab'l e ifgrowth approximates the l,letropol itan Counci I 's conservativeprojections or even if it reaches a leyel comparable to thehistorical rate that was experienced from.1980 - 1988. The fol I owi ng i s a compos i te of the three project i on methodol ogi es: H()USEHOLD AND P()PULATI()N PROJECTIOil COI.IP()SITE Basis 1990 4777ll,000 200 57m ,500 .062 .214 ,145 ,587 2010-rr NA 1l,843 30 ,378 L5,127 38 ,800 2000 6 t7 9 23 l1 28 93 78 ?t 06 5 15 5 L7 8 ?t I 11 4 11 000 3 3 2 3 TH 2I2 TH 2I? {.75-5.5{.75-5.5 6.3 6.3 ,329 ,100 ,458 ,435 Extrapolation of population estimates from historic growth trendsresults in the following estimates: *r+tftr* Population Househol ds Population Households Population ( 1/e0) EI{PL O YHE IIT Employment growth in chanhassen has parallel led population orolrth.In 1970, the city had a total employment of 985.' By 1980] totatemployment had risen to I,300 which represents a 5ZI inirease.Employment from 1980 to 1989 increased dr'amatically. According toa survey conducted by.the-c-ity- in I ate 1999, chanliassen curreitlyhas a total emp'l oyment of 3,666. This figure represents a lglilncrease over the l0 year period. chanhassen's dramatic increase in employment from 1970 to 19g9 islargely due to the Iocation of a number-of large siate inoJitriatusers... corporate of f i ces and l ight man ufactur i ng faci I ities havebeen attracted to chanhassen for a variety of reaions. Amono themg"e.l' Lgl amenity industrial land, avaitabit.i ty of transporIationfacilities, t_h9 planned expansion of fH ZLZ', and higti qualiiy hous ing appeal ing to corporate managers. 01. .oI. more_ large scale industrial users have the potential tosignificantly impact the city,s emploJment growth. An example isthe-recently .completed Rosemount facility which opened with'1,000employees and has expansion capacity to- eventuatty employ ti5OOpeople. Industrial. _growth trends experienced over the past lg years, andm0re specif ic.a.lly, . those experienced since l9ti0 are eipectdd to g e n e r a 1 I y - c o n t i n u e through and beyond 2000, providing that' suitableindustrial land remains available in Chan-hassen. commercial employment in chanhassen has also grown over the past10 years. As new businesses have been esta-UI isheO is -pirt ofChanhassen's downtown redevel opment effort, empl oyme;t 'in theretai l a.nd offi ce segments of the commercial mirtei hive increased.u.ommercial.employment is expected to continue to grow as additionaldeve I opment occurs. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIOI{S - C ITY ()F CHANHASSEl{ 1980 t;3U'0 199 0 3;7tr0 2000 sFfio 2005 7175 Jl9 _..pt oyment orojections shown above are the City,s estimatesDased on recent trends and commercial/industrial lancl ivailability.The Metropolitan 0evelopment and Investment Framewori prepireo [,ythe_ i'letropol itan counci I in 1988 estimates that cIanhissen,iemployment ln 1990 nill be 3,500 and 4,500 in 2000. phe-7 1 [ ? 1 t- fi' 1 6' L i _ _ = .,.. = = 5 -:4 s• . - - -=- .-.1.--2 - = = = .=- E. = ff. B. E.5 -,=-- y E.,. E----L. : : : 2 s: I L = r. F., g 1-1 I:- '4 Et SI = e_ a a' ;:z= :-:-. i.--- = = = - --. ;I', § OB ) I 1 li I AP ---Ir-10 r4 91 ...i - i- . 4> PI ) s 10 I i r 1 , r yin I CP (\ I l_It MAJOR STREET PLA dTY G c,{AfflltssEil EXBTNG FOUTES I Major Arterial - Minor Arterial o...o. GOlleCtOf ]{€W ALE$TENT TOUTES - Major Arterial - Minor Arterial o... Collector oa/u*!!14 araaaam ocft.it....'.. I , o r-t a,a a -l a ao aoa a ;H j t !. 1_ - El++3-E! o -.- - _-i I