2003 11 212.
3.
4.
5.
6.
AGENDA
CHANHASSEN SENIOR COMMISSION
Friday, November 21, 2003
10.'00 A.M. TO 11:30 P.M.
CHANHASSEN COUNCIL CHAMBERS
Approval of agenda.
Approval of minutes dated October 17, 2003.
Senior Center Expansion Update.
Update on Senior Center Activities.
Congregate Dining Kitchen.
Senior Commission Comments.
Adjournment
* The next Senior Commission meeting will take place on December 19, 2003.
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SENIOR COMMISSION
REGULAR MEETING
October 17, 2003
Chairman Geving called the meeting to order at 10:00a.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT: Mel Kurvers, Jean Mancini, Bobbie Headla, Tom Faust, and
Dale Geving.
MEMBERS ABSENT: Albin Olson and Pat McGough.
Visitors: Melissa Gilman
STAFF PRESENT: Sharmeen AI-Jaff, Senior Planner, Todd Hoffman, Park and
Recreation Director, Kara Wikenhouser, Senior Center Coordinator.
APPROVAL OF THE AGENDA: Commissioner Mancini moved, Commissioner
Headla Seconded the motion to approve the agenda. All voted in favor and the motion
carried.
APPROVAL OF MINUTES: Commissioner Mancini moved, Commissioner Kurvers
seconded the motion to approve the minutes with one change.
CITY HALL LOWER LEVEL EXPANSION: Hoffman presented the staff report.
They voted to recommend approval of the design as shown on plans dated October 22,
2003. The second motion included the kitchenette. The commission made to motions to
approve it with the exception of Commissioner Faust who voted against it due to
duplication of the space.
UPDATE ON SENIOR ACTIVITIES: See attachment 1.
SENIOR COMMENTS: The commission wants to hold a "Name the Senior Center
Room" Contest.
The commission also asked if Kara' s hours can be extended. Todd Hoffman explained
that the budget will not allow it.
Prepared and submitted by Sharmeen AI-Jaff, Senior Planner.
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Senior
Housing
Update
2003
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I Research Inc.
615 First Avenue NE
Suite 400
Minneapolis, MN 55413
612.338.0012
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
Foreword
Max~ieLd Re6earch M ple.~ed to pre6ent our Senior Hou4ing Market Update lor 200.1.
The impetu6 ~or thi6 report i6 to provide the denior hou6ing indu6try with current market data
critical to under6tanding thi6 rapidly growing and ever evolving indu6try on a local level. The
data can be utilized to di6cover opportunitie6 a<s well a6 Ulag aread that may be in danger o~
temporary 6aturation.
For 15 yeard, Maxuield Re6earch ha6 been tracking the local 6enior houding market through an
annual comprehendive durvey OU aLL market-ratedenior.houding development6 in the Twin
Citie6 Metro Area. The data collected trom our 6urvey provided the indudtry with the mOdt
comprehen6ive and current inuormation available on local denior hou6ing market trend6.
The inuormation contained in thi6 year'6 report wa6 collected by Maxtield Re6earch through
telephone -6urvey~conducted with individuaL property.manager~ .andowner6 .during .the
uourth quarter o~ 2002. In the padt, our metro-wide 6urvey had been conducted during the
Uir6t and 6econd quarter6 ou each year. However, the lingering euuectd ou the September 11th.
di6a6ter re6ulted in a 6Low-down in traUtic at many denior projectd the ~oLlowing 6pring.
Theretore, we decided to p06tpone the 6urvey to better reulect more normal market
condition6.
The durvey i6 limited to ~market-rate" and ~~au~ordable'? 6enior deveLopment6 and thu6,
exclude6 project6 with a ""deep" dub<sidy. Ad in the pad!, the durvey included only
"~edtablidhed" projectd - thOde that have been open tor occupancy ~or at leadt 12 monthd or
have reached dtabilized occupancy (95% ~or independent Living and 93% tor Add i<s ted Living).
Thid year'd durvey included jUdt over 320 individual project6 with 22,112 unitd.
We hope you tind the intormation in thid report helptuL. I wouLd like to perdonally thank alL
ot the property managerd and owner6 that have re6ponded to the 6ij,rvey now and in yeard
padt, tor without the intormation they provide thid report would not be pOddible.
Sincerely,
~ . ,Il}
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Rick Fen6ke
Vice Predident/Director ot Senior Houding
Maxuield Redearch Inc.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
The State of the Senior Housing Market. The first three years of the new millennium
saw a significant number of new senior units enter the market place and overall vacancy rates for
senior housing inched upward from the low rates experienced in the late 1990s. Since 2000, over
5,120 units have opened in the Metro Area bringing the total number of units to nearly 24,000
units as of the end of 2002. Based on the level of activity in the pipeline, we expect the number
of non-subsidized senior housing units in the Metro Area to exceed 30,000 by the end of2005;
barring any major market downturns (see Figure 1 below).
Figure 1
Net Gain in Senior Housing Units
7-County Twin Cities Metro Area
33,000
30,000
27,000
24,000
21,000
"B,OOO
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
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Our 2002 survey again showed an overall senior housing vacancy rate of3.8% as of 4th Quarter
2002. Recent -history shows that overall, senior vacancy rates in the Metro Area bottomed-out at
2.4% in 1999, then inched up to 2.5% in 2000, before jumping to 3.4% in 2001. (see Figure 2
below).
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. In addition to collecting occupancy trends, we have also have been carefully monitoring the
absorption rates of recently opened projects and have noticed an overall decline of 10% to 15%
in average absorption rates of new units over the last two years. While most new developments
are still maintaining adequate, if not rapid, absorption rates, an increasing number of proj ects are
not performing as well as projects of the recent past. In addition, there have been a handful of
newer projects that have seen absorption levels far below historic norms. In rhost cases, these
developments are not meeting the market's expectations and preferences in terms of product
quality, service offerings, and value, or are not adequately marketed and/or managed. In most
cases, the projects with lagging absorption are also much higher-priced than the primal)'
competition.
While the market for senior housing in the Twin Cities still remains relatively strong and we
have yet to reach wide spread market saturation, the industry is definitely becoming increasingly
competitive and we believe that increasing vacancy rates will appear in future surveys. Current
demographic trends would tend to indicate that growth in demand for senior housing will wane
somewhat over the short-term as most senior housing will be marketing to a smaller Depression-
era generation. Based on the significant number of developments currently planned to come on-
line over the next several years and the entry of inexperienced senior housing developers into the
market will push vacancy rates upward from their current levels over the short-term. In-depth
research will become increasingly important in order to identify appropriate locations, products,
services programming and market niches that will set a project apart from the existing product in
an ever-increasing competitive market place.
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Construction Trends. During 2002, the Seven-County Twin Cities Metro Area saw the
addition of 1,884 new senior housing units. This figure was just slightly lower than we had
projected to be built in last year's report as several developments' openings were delayed until
2003. Still, the number of units added during 2002 was the most added in a single year, since
1988 when a record 2,065 units came on-line, and shows a continuing acceleration in the amount
of senior housing product being developed.
As Figure 3 on the following page shows, between 2000 and 2002, the Metro Area saw an
average of nearly 1,720 senior housing units come on-line. This compares to an average of just
over 1,150 units annually during the period 1995 to 1999, and the 660 units per year built
between 1992 and 1994. The level of construction over the last three years is just shy of the
construction levels that occurred during the first of the Metro-Area's <senior housing booms,
when an average of nearly 1,740 units were added each year between 1986 and 1988. The
number of market-rate/affordable senior housing units currently in the planning process could
produce an additional 2,070 senior housing units annually in the Twin Cities Metro Area over the
next three years.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
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While senior housing development during the 1980s concentrated on "Congregate" rental
housing, today's senior housing has evolved into a complete continuum of products designed to
accommodate the lifestyle needs of extremely diverse market segments; from younger active
seniors who may simply desire to live among peers and desire the freedom from maintaining a
single-family home, to very frail seniors in need of housing with support and personal care
services. Of late, there has been a resurgence of owner-occupied housing for seniors, after nearly
.a decade of very little construction. Between 1995 and 2002, 2,060 units of owner-occupied
senior housing were built accounting for an average of 260 per year or just fewer than 20% of the
senior housing units built in the Metro Area As Figure 4 below shows, the owner-occupied
senior housing is proj ected to grow significantly with at least an additional 1,800 units planned
through 2005, translating to an average of just over 600 units per year. Between 2003 and 2005,
we estimate that owner-occupied senior housing will account for about 30% of the senior units
built in the Metro Area.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
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Types of Senior Housing. In order to understand potential opportunities within the senior
housing market itis critical to understand the differences between the various senior housing
products offered in the market today. Maxfield Research Inc. has developed the following senior
housing classifications based on the level (or lack) of support and/or personal care services
offered.
The least service-intensive product, termed "Adult" projects, offer virtually no support services
or health care, but restrict tenancy to those ages 55 or 62 and over. These projects are usually
apartment-style rentals, but also include age-restricted condominiums, cooperatives, (for-sale and
rental) townhome developments and even detached housing units. Some of these developments
provide scheduled transportation and limited activities for residents.
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"Congregate" projects offer support services such as transportation, meals and housekeeping
either.for an additional cost (optional services) or included in the monthly fee (service-inclusive).
These developments tend to attract an older and frailer resident than do Adult projects.
Congregate units are also much more likely to be occupied by a single person (typically 75 to
85% of the units) than Adult projects which can have as many as one-half or more of their units
occupied by couples.
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The most service-intensive product types, Assisted Living and Memory Care, offer the highest
level of services short of a nursing home. "Assisted Living" housing typically includes at least
two daily meals as well as all of the support services found in Congregate housing. Most
distinguishing however, is that Assisted Living housing also provides 24-hour staffing and
emergency response along with the .availability of personal care assistance (bathing, dressing,
grooming, etc.).
"Memory Care" housing is a specialized Assisted Living product specifically designed and
programmed for persons afflicted with Alzheimer's disease or other dementias. These facilities
include all of the same services as traditional Assisted Living, additional safety through secured-
access doors and/or wander-guard systems as well as higher staff-to-resident ratios.
Furthermore, special active (stimulating) and passive (calming) programming is involved to
respond to this population's needs. While Memory Care facilities can be freestanding buildings,
just as often, they comprise a wing of a traditional Assisted Living facility.
We have defined "Affordable" senior housing as units targeting modest income households.
The projects have a ceilings on the income of residents and rents typically set to be affordable to
persons with incomes of up to 60% of the County median versus deep-subsidized projects where
rents are typically based on a sliding scale (generally 30 percent of adjusted household income)
and are geared towards very-low income seniors. Affordable Housing usually receives some
type of shallow subsidy, and are usually financed with Tax Increment Financing, Tax-Credit
Financing or. through.a special County/City sponsored tax-levy. They can be free-standing
developments but increasingly consist of units within a mixed income-building were market rate
units are also present. Usually, the Mfordable product offers few services unless the units are
within a market rate building with Congregate services available on an optional basis.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
Dfthe 327 senior projects inventoried as of 4th Quarter of 2002, 48 projects had 2,571
Mfordableunits. Another 89 projects, -with-a total-of 6,558 units were classified as market-rate
Adult projects. Although, Adult projects are more numerous, the Metro Area's 79 Congregate
projects and their 8,162 units account for the largest share of the actual housing units, due to
their larger average project size. A total of71 Assisted Living facilities with 3,929 units were
also identified as were 40 Memory Care facilities containing 892 units. The average Mfordable
development consists of 56 units; Adult projects average 75 units in size, Congregate projects -
108 units, Assisted Living - 55 units, and MernoI)' Care facilities - 22 units.
Figures 5 and 6 below show the current distribution of senior units among th-e various product
categories as surveyed during 4th Quarter 2002. Congregate projects currently account for 37%
of the Metro Area's senior units, followed by Adult projects which account for 30% of alIlIDits
and Assisted Living which comprise 22% (of which 4% are Memory Care) of all units.
Mfordable units accolIDt for 12% of the non-subsidized senior housing units within the Twin
Cities Metro Area, a-figure that has been steadily declining since the mid~1990s (when.they
accounted for 15% of all units), as market rate housing has dominated and tax credits are no
longer available for financing senior housing in the State of Minnesota.
Figu re 5
NON-SUBSIDIZED SENIOR HOUSING IN THE 7-COUNTY TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
4th Quarter 2002
Projects
Units'
A vg, Size
6,558
75
Assisted living
1
3,929"
55
Memory Care
40
892
22
Figure 6
Senior Housing Distribution of Surveyed Projects
7-County TCMA
4th Quarter 2002
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. Geographic Distribution of Senior Housing. For the purpose of this report Maxfiel.d
Research has divided the 7-County Metro Are into six quadrants; Minneapolis, St. Paul, the
Northeast Metro, Northwest Metro, Southeast Metro and the Southwest Metro; shown on the
map below.
Twin Cities Quadrants
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
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. The Southwest Metro has, by far, the largest number of senior housing units (6,545 units) and
comprises 30% of the Metro.Area's market-rate and. affordable seniorhousing units. The
Northwest quadrant has the second largest number of units (5,134 units), followed by the
Northeast (4,977 units) both accounting for about 23% of the Metro total and the Southeast
(2,294 units) with 10%. Minneapolis (1,844 units) and 81. Paul (1,318 units) account for 8% and
6% of the Metro Area's non-subsidized senior units, respectively.
Figure 7 shows the number of senior housing units in each quadrant broken out by the product
type.
Figure 7
Distribution of Senior Units by lYpe & Quadrant
TCMA, 4th Quarter 2002
.
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000 --
500
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o Adult
EJ Affordable
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SE
NE
NW
SW
Adult projects have proliferated in the Northwest, where the 1,990 units comprise 40% of the
quadrant's senior housing and 30% of the Metro Area's Adult units. Many of the units are found
in older general-occupancy projects that have been converted to moderately-priced senior
housing. Market rate Adult housing accounted for 50% of the units in 81. Paul but only 7% in
the City of Minneapolis.
Congregate housing dominates in Minneapolis where it comprises three-quarters of the city's
units and-in the.Southwest.whereitaccountsforhalf.ofall senior housing units. Congregate
projects comprise anywhere from one-quarter to one-third of the units in the remaining suburban
quadrants but only 16% of the units in S1. Paul. Overall, nearly 40% of the Metro Area's
Congregate units are located in the Southwest Metro.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. Assisted Living currently comprises between 13% (Minneapolis) and 31% (St. Paul) of the
. senior units in each quadrant, with the. Southwest-Metro accounting for nearly one-third of the
Metro Area's Assisted Living units.
Memol)' Care housing is concentrated in the suburban markets were it comprises 4% to 7% of
the senior units each quadrant. The Southwest quadrant account for the largest share -- nearly
one-third - of the Metro Area' sMemory Care units, while .MemoryCare units. accounting for the
largest share of units in the Southeast (7%). Memory Care Assisted Living accounted for less
than 1 % of the units in the two core Cities.
While Affordable Housing product accounts for only 12% of all units surveyed, it comprises
26% of the units in the Southeast-and 23% in the Northeast. Affordable units accounted for only
3% to 8% of the units in the remaining quadrants.
The concentration of Affordable units in the Southeast is the result of a special tax-levy imposed
by Dakota County. The Dakota County Community Development Authority (DCCDA) h~ been
and continues to be active in developing senior housing. .Since 1990, the DCCDAhas built 14
projects with 784 units (745 affordable and 39 market-rate). Of these, 545 units are located in
the Southeast Metro (with projects in Apple Valley, Eagan, Inver Grove Heights, Mendota
Heights, Rosemount, South S1. Paul and West St. Paul) and 239 units in the Southwest Metro
(Bumsville and Lakeville). The projects have been extremely successful, having maintained full
occupan~y with significant waiting lists.
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The large number of Affordable units in the Northeast Metro is primarily the result of a
concentrationoftax~credit-financed cottage-style housing product. This product has. been
extremely successful, capitalizing on the large moderate-income market found in the Northeast
suburbs as well as attracting residents from surrounding neighborhoods in 8t. Paul. Unlike
adjacent states however, the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency, which administers tax credits,
has significantly reduced the use of this financing for senior housing development choosing to
focus the program on family housing.
The development of Affordable senior housing has also been sponsored by several municipalities
including Blaine (Blaine.CourtandClover Leaf Court), Champlin (Mill Pond Gables), Eagan
(0 'Leary Manor), Maple Grove (Woodland Mounds) and Plymouth (Plymouth Towne Square).
Market ConditionsN acancy Rate Trends. Throughout the 1990s, the Twin Cities
Metro Area's senior projects saw substantial declines in their vacancy rates with the.overall
senior vacancy rate declining from nearly 9.0% in 1990 to 2.4% in 1999. In the early 1990s, the
declining vacancies resulted from a slowdown in development of new units which allowed
demand to "catch-up" with the large supply of mostly Congregate housing that was developed
during the boom of the mid-to late 80s. As development resumed in the mid-1990s, the diverse
variety of housing productbeingintroduced.(Adult.(rental and ownership), Assisted.Living and
Memory Care) allowed for the industry to tap into market segments previously being \
underserved. The recent surge in senior housing development has resulted in modest increase~ in
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. vacancy rates since the market's nadir of 2.4% in 1999. Between 2000 and 2002, the overall
senior housing vacancy rate in Twin Cities Metro increased from 2.5% to 3.8%.
Despite the modest risein vacancy rates over the last three years, the market for Affordable as
well. as independent senior.product (Adult.and .Congregate) still remains. strong Metro-wid,e, with
vacancy rates well below the industry equilibrium standard of 5%. As of 4th Quarter 2002, a
mere 1.1 % of the Affordable units were vacant, 2.1 % of the market-rate Adult product was
reported vacant as were 3.3% of the Metro Area's Congregate units. Meanwhile, vacancy rates
for Assisted Living/Memory Care housing in the Metro had a composite vacancy rate of 8.3% -
slightly. higher.than the 7.% vacancy. rate that is comfortable in Assisted Living housing. ~e
Metro's traditional Assisted Living facilities are currently operating with a 7.7% vacancy rate,
while Memory Care units are experiencing an 11.4% vacancy rate Metro-wide.
Over the last 18 months, vacancy rates increased slightly across all independent senior product
types, while both Assisted Living and Memory Care units saw modest declines.. It is interesting
to note that although the vacancy rate for Congregate projects increased to its highest level in
five years, more than half of the Congregate facilities surv~yed were 100% occupied, and that
nearly one-third of the vacant Congregate units were located in only four struggling projects.
Exclude these four projects, and the vacancy rate at the remaining Metro Area Congregate
projects drops to a respectable 2.3%. Figure 8 displays Metro. Area vacancy rates for
independent senior product for 1998 through 2002, while Table 9 shows vacancy trends for
Assisted Living housing in the Metro Area over the last five years.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
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Typically a vacancy rate of 5% is considered equilibrium for independent senior housing.
Vacancy rates well below.thisfigure indicate that the. demand .for independent housing -product
continues to surpass the supply. Demand is particularly strong for Affordable and Adult prodq.ct,
where vacancy rates have remained around 1 % or less.
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Due to high turnover rates in Assisted Living housing (anywhere from 35 to 50% per year) and
the need for adequate consumer choice, a vacancy!rateofatleast is 7% is considered.healthy in
the Assisted Living industry. Nationally, AssistedlLiVing housing has seen vacancy rates
stabilize at around 10% over the past several years while the local market fared better than the
nation, with vacancy rates for traditional Assisted ~iving hovering between 7% and 9%. While
occupancy statistics are not available for Memory Care Assisted Living nationally, in the Twin
Cities Metro, vacancy rates for Memory Care Assisted Living remain relatively high (11 %), but
are currently at their lowest rate in the last five years. The substantial vacancies over the past
five years can be attributed to the large number of Memory Care units that have been developed
during this period (particularly in 1998 and 1999 when 463 units came on-line) and declined the
last two years representing the slow and steady absorption of these units.
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Figure 1 Don the following page shows vacancy. rates by product type for each of the six markets
examined. Overall vacancy rates ranged from 3.0% in the Southwest and 3.1 % in the southeast
Metro to 4.6% in Minneapolis and 81. Paul. The Northeast Metro reported an overall vacancy
rate of3.9% while the Northwest reported a 4.1 % vacancy rate.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
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Figure 10
SENIOR VACANCY RATES BY QUDRANT & PRODUCT TYPE
TCMA-2002
Mpls. 101 2 122 1,382 66
NE 19 1,126 12 22 1,565 36 15 1,203 56 4.7%
NW 8 398 22 1,991 61 18 1,638 47 2.9%
SE 12 610 15 798 12 466 16 3.4%
St.P 2 41 8 656 14 214 4.2%
SW 6 295 2 20 lA26 11 25 3,259 72 2.2%
Total 48 2,571 29 89 6,558 135 79 8,162 266 3.3%
Avg Size 54 74 103
Mpls. 229 14
NE 11 883 71
. NW 19 882 86
SE 8 259 18
St.P 397 36
SW 22 1,279 76
To ta I 71 3,929 301
Avg Size 55
8
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10 0 1,844 83
200 21 75 4,977 196 3.9%
225 24 75 5,134 223 4.3%
161 22 47 2,294 74 3.2%
10 0 19 1,318 61 4.6%
286 35 88 6,545 196 3.0%
892 102 22,112 833 3.80/0
22 69
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15
40
The Affordable housing market continues to be tight across the Metro Area, except for S1. Paul
where there are currently only 41 units of Affordable senior housing. The remaining submarkets
reported vacancy rates of between 0.7% and 2.0%. The market for Adult product was once again
strong throughout the Metro, with vacancy rates ranging from 0.8% in Minneapolis and the
Southwest Metro to 3.1 % in the Northwest Metro.
Over the last 18 months, the Congregate market in the Twin Cities has softened but remains
viable . with vacancy rates ranging from.2.2% in .the Southwest Metro to .4.8% in .Minneap~lis.
Congregate projects in the Northwest have a vacancy rate of just less than 3%, while the vacancy
rate remains below 3.5% in the Southeast Metro andjust below 4% in the Northeast (where the
majority of vacant Congregate units are concentrated in one project). Excluding this project, the
vacancy rate for the remaining Congregate units in the Northeast drops to only 1.8%.
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. Contrary to the independent living market, vacancy rates for Assisted Living housing in the
Metro Area declined from 8.7%.to 7.7% over the last 18 months, while. the .vacancy rate for
Memory Care housing declined from 15.8% to 11.0%.
Over the last several years, a significant share of Metro Area's Assisted Living and Memory
Care vacancies are located within a handful of under performing projects which has inflated the
Metro Area's.overall Assisted Living vacancy rates. These developments. account for 30% of the
Assisted Living and Memory Care vacancies despite the fact that they compromise only 18% of
the total number of units. These developments are characterized by free-standing (not part of a
continuum of care campus) Assisted Living/Memory Care facilities, are chains owned by large
national senior housing developers, and have smaller than average units (in many cases suite-
style units versus apartment-style).
Even so, Assisted Living vacancies were found to be more widely distributed this year compared
to previous years. Despite the fact that overall Assisted Living vacancy rates.have.declined by a
full percentage point, the median vacancy rate of the Metro's Assisted Living projects increased
from 4.8% in 2nd Quarter 2001, to 5.0% in the 4th Quarter 2002. Conversely, the median
vacancy rate of the Metro's Memory Care facilities decreased from 7.7% to 7.1 % during the
same period, while overall vacancy rates declined from 15.8% to 11.0%.
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It is important to note that the survey only included "established" developments (those that have
been open for 12 months), and a significant number of new developments were in their initial
lease-up period at the time the survey and could impact occupancy levels among some
neighboring established developments over the short-term.
Increasing Product Diversification. Contributing to the expansion and success of the
local senior housing market is the ever-increasing variety of product available in today' s market.
As Figure lIon the following page shows, senior housing construction in the 1980s was
dominated by Congregate housing. This lack of product differentiation played an important part
in the senior housing market's downturn during the end of that decade. During much of the
1990s, development was concentrated at opposite ends of the service continuum with greater
numbers of Adult and Assisted Living product being constructed.
Since 2000, the development of Adult and Assisted Living housing has been as strong as ever,_
however,. the development of Congregate housing has also rebounded. .Between 1990 and 1994,
there was an average of 120 Congregate units built in the Metro Area annually. Between 1995
and 1999, the number of Congregate units built averaged 220 units. Furthermore, it is projected
that between 2000 and 2005, an average of390 Congregate units will be added each year. Adult
housing however, has seen the most dramatic acceleration. During the first half of 90s, the
Metro Area saw an average-of 290 Adult.unitsopeneach year. The second half of the 1990s saw
approximately 610 new Adult units annually, and between 2000 and 2005, it is estimated that
nearly 1,050 Adult units will come to market. In comparison, an average 130 of units of
Assisted Living and Memory Care housing were brought on line during the early 1990s. During
the late 1990s, the market saw the addition of nearly 350 Assisted Living units annually; while
an average- of nearly 4.60 Assisted Living units are expected each Hyear between 2000 and 2005.
.
- 1.2 -
.
.
.
4-
. ~.l ~ ~titl.tb .,,<.
~
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
...
Figure 11 ~
'. ~en~or;,Hous'i~g!!D~v~!ol?ment by Year
. TCMA s:
2,100
o Memory Care
1,800 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ m Assisted Living _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Cl Congregate
o Adult
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
o
'~,' ~.~.~ ~j' ~.~/ ~ : g:",. ~ .~
",'~~
Between 2003 and 2005,.we have projected that an additional 6,200 plus units of non-subsidized
senior housing could potentially come on-line in the Twin Cities . Metro Area. The Southwest
Metro is likely to see the largest increase with 1,665 units planned (27% of the total), followed
by the Northeast (1,460 units, 23%), Northwest (1,220 units, 20%) and the Southeast (1,060
units, or 17%). The remaining 13% of the proposed senior units are expected to be located in the
Metro's urban core, with 636 units proposed in S1. Paul (10% of the total), and only 165 units in
Minneapolis (3%). Figure. 12 on. the following page shows the distribution of pending senior
housing units by type and location.
-13 -
.
.
.
t
Ill' .xfield
.._ .~ ~ . _'... lles~ardl I..('~
./
~
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
Figu~e.12
PENDING SENIOR!IOYSINODE~QPM~T
2003 to 2005'" ,
1,800
1;600 .
1,400
1,200
~ 1,000
.~
-;
~ 800
600
400
200
0
sw
OMC
[] Cong
------------------
[] Adult-Rental
- - - - - - --[] Adult-Ownership - - - - -
.De
.DW
.s.e,
"stp
..mpls
Between 2003 and 2005, Congregate and Assisted Living housing will lead the boom in the
Southwest Metro, while in the Northeast, Adult housing, particularly .rental, willdorninate.
About half of the senior units in the Southeast Metro will be owner-occupied which includes a
large (210 unit) age-restricted detached villa development and several senior condominium
buildings (with 168 units) proposed within the Evermore master-planned neighborhood in
Rosemount. Development in the Northwest is expected to consist of roughly equal numbers of
independent (Adult and Congregate ) and Assisted Living (Traditional and Memol)' . Care)
housing. All types of senior housing (with the exception of Memory Care housing) is expecte9
to be developed in 81. Paul while in Minneapolis, only a modest number of Adult rental units are
currently planned.
Revival in Owner-Occupied Housing. Although 86% of Metro Area senior units are
rental, the development of senior ownership housing is strong and.growing. The resurgence in
cooperative and condominium housing, combined with the recent introduction of age-restricted
townhome and detached villas communities are all creating more diverse options for today's
senIors.
As of the end of 2002, there were nearly 3,840 age-restricted owner-occupied housing units in
the .T.win .Cities Metro . comprising just over. 14 % of the Metro .Area' s non~subsidized .seniQr
housing. This figure represents a significant increase since 1995, when just 9% of the Metro
senior units were owner-occupied. If all of the proposed for-sale senior product proposed are
- 1.4 -
t
.-8, a~fi~~LilIIlC.
~
~
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
.
built, we project owner-occupied housing would account for almost 19% of the Metro's non-
subsidized senior units by 2005 (see Figures 13 and 14).
.
em/SF
~o~ ~'. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - EJ Condo - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
e Coop. ~
400 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0;; ~
Q ~~
1"""1
l"--
W)
l"-- M
~ ,,~
poo!
N
~
M
.
17. ~
16.1o;!
I
- 1.5 -
.
.
.
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I
~~.tI, _ ~~fi~l!!.. Inc.
~
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
..
Cooperative housing product with a total of 2,350 units in the Metro Area comprises just over
1 0% of the Metro 's non-subsidized senior . units and accounts for over60%.oftheHMetro' s
owner-occupied units. Another 990 units are in senior condominium buildings and 500 units
consist of either townhomes or detached villa Overall, for-sale housing had a vacancy rate of
1 %. The low vacancy rates in owner-occupied housing product are aided by the build-to-
demand character and pre-sale requirements of these projects. Owner-occupied housing
typically is designed.and .marketedtoward .younger.active seniors.Only.about 15% ofth-eowner-
occupied senior housing units in the Twin Cities are in projects where support services are
provided.
DemographicslDemand Factors. As .of 2000, there are 255,000 persons age 65 and.older
and 124,630 persons age 75 and older in the Twin Cities Metro Area. This represented an
increase of just over 30,112 seniors (13%). This growth in seniors was about 20% less th~ what
the Metro Ar~a experienced during the 19808 (an increase of 36,926 persons). The lagging
growth during the 1990s can be attributed to a stabilizing of birth rates during the Great
Depression of the 1930s. The impact of the Depression-era generation can be clearly be seen in
the.modestgrowthin the number of younger seniors.(persons age 65 to 74) during.the last
decade. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of younger seniors in the Metro Area increased by
only about 5,000 persons (4%), while the Metro Area, older senior (age 75+} base -- the primary
market for most types of senior housing-gained 25,000 persons (25%). Over the course of the
current decade, the aging of the Depression-era generation will have a moderating effect on
growth among older seniors. Over the short-term, the Metr.o's senior populationwill.stea4ily
increase with a projected increase of 43,000 seniors (17%) between 2000 and 2010. Nearly
three-quarters of this growth, however, will be among younger seniors.
The aging baby boom population should ensure that demand for senior housing will continue to
grow. well into the firsthalf of this century , with the Metro Area' s senior. population. expected to
more than double in size over the next three decades. Growth in the senior population will begin
to accelerate shortly after 2010 as the leading edge of the baby boom begins entering their mid-
60s.
Between 2010 and 2020, the Metro Area senior population is projected to gain an additional
132,700seniors,with.expected increases of 104,000 persons (64%) . age 65 to.75 and 29,.0.0.0
persons (21 %) age 75 and older. Demand for senior-housing-with-services will escalate
dramatically after 2020 with the aging of the baby boom into their late 70s. Between 2020 an~
2030, the Metro Area's senior population is projected is grow by 178,000 persons (42%)
equating to 627,50.0 persons age 65 and older and 285,000 persons 75 and older by 2030 (see
Figures 15 and 16 on the following page).
- 1.6 -
.
.
.
...
.-H.;. ~_~fi~l~(:"'lic.
~-
..
180,000
160,000
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
350,000
, Figure: 15
SENIO~:{65+ )'P0~putAir10N Jr~~~~'
, "T'~1\'KA ". ;"H ".", -
..' ".-~.1~Jn. ~~ - ~~ .;;
300,000
250,000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -. - - - - - - - - - -- - -- - - - - -
200,000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
150;000. - - - - - - - - - - - - - -125,-638' - - - -- - 130.,6-1-5- - -
105,479
100,000
141,900
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 124,63.0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
99,495
82,728
50,000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
o
2'020
~~2 03 0
1980
J.?90-
, .. , Fi~urti.6 .,< ""
~~~ ENIO R-J?O P UI,;~:TIO~GR9 WTH
""TeNIA
o
075+
140,000 - - - - 1165-74 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. el ~
120,000
100,000
80,000
6~,OOO"
40,000'
~
20,000
-lJ -
.
.
.
..
. .~Jim~ctI,"e.
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
The recent release of the 2000 Census data has shed new light on several factors that will iwpact
the demand potential for senior housing both in the short- and long-term.
Interestingly, despite the fact that nearly 8,000 senior rental units were built in the Metro Area
during the .1990s, the .number. of households headed by persons. age 65 and .older that. rented their
housing increased by only 620 (3%). In contrast, the number of senior homeowners increased by
nearly 27,000 households (22%). For households age 65 to 74, there was a reported net loss of
nearly 2,400 renters (a 14% reduction in renters), while the number of older senior households
(75+) that rented their housing increased by 3,000 households (12%). Between 1990 and 2000,
the homeownership.rate for. the Metro's older seniors. (75+) increased from 60% to.66% of all
households, while for younger seniors, homeownership rates increased from 78% to 82%.
FIGURE 17
SENIOR HOUSEHOLD TENURE
METRO'AREA
1990 & 2000
Age 65-7-4
Age 75+
Total
Own
No. Pet.
Rent
, No. Pet.
Own
No. Pet.
Rent
No. Pet.
Total
Minneapolis
St. Paul
Rem. of Metro
-3,907 -35.8
-2,624 -30.5
16,264 41.9
-1,483 -32.4
-1,080 -29.2
186 2.2
-3,659
-1,966
25,750
-1,236 -12.3
-576 -7.8
18,938 98.8
-2,423 -38.2
-1,390 -26.1
6,812 54.2
- 5,390
-3,704
16,450
Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, Maxfield Research Inc.
This homeownership trend will impact demand for senior housing over the course of the next
two. decades~. The.stronger growth in younger. seniors, their obvious preference for owner&hip
housing, and the expansion of homemaking and home health care services for the frail elderly
should allow for-sale senior product to capture an increasing share of market demand. over the.
next several decades. Meanwhile, growing market acceptance of senior housing when combilled
- 1.8 -
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~
i
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. with appreciating home values and increased wealth of future seniors should translate to a ::>teady
growth in the number offraiLseniors that canafford.market rate Congregateand.Assisted Living
housing.
One of the most dramatic trends exposed by the 2000 Census was the substantial decline in
seniors in the two Core Cities. During the 1990s, the City of Minneapolis lost nearly 9,050
. senior households, a decline of 40%, while theSt. Paul lost 5,670. senior households, .adecline of
29%. A lack of development of senior housing in the core cities over the last decade coupled
with the strong urge of the elderly to follow their children to the suburbs (the "shadow
migration" effect) has expedited the outpouring of seniors from the core to the outer suburbs.
During the 1990s, the suburban portion of the Metro Area saw its senior household base grow by
42,200 households, an increaseof35%. . Figure 22 below presents the-top 15 metro Communities
by senior population in 2000.
Between 1990 and 2002, the percent of Metro Area senior households residing in non-subsidized
senior housing.more than doubled, from roughly 6.4% to 13.3%. The market saturation rates
(the ratio of Affordable and market~rate.seniorhousingunits over the total number.of~nior
households) in the Metro Are~ range from 6.9% in 8t. Paul to 16.9% in the Northeast Metro.
Figures 18 and 19 show a comparison of the market penetration rates in the various Metro Area
quadrants.
.
Comparing the supply of non-subsidized senior housing units to the number of senior households
at various. different income levels shows.thatthe current supply of Affordable -and.market rate
senior housing units in the Metro Area would house 16% of all Metro Area senior households
with incomes of $15,000 or more. When comparing the number of market rate units to the
number of senipr households with incomes of $25,000 or more, these market rate units could
house.18% of this market segment. Figure 190n the following page presents marketpenetration
rates based on income levels for each of the Metro Area quadrants.
"Se ifl~~;H:1i'u:\i ~~S~i.:~~~~;\l;~i'i6!t~'f~S ~,
0.0%
.
- 1.9 -
.
_ ~..: . .~fili!!..,.,.
~I
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SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
.
FIGURE 19
SENIOR HOUSING MARKET PENETRATION RATES
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
2002
.
Conclusions. At.presen~theTwin Cities Metro Area's senior housing market remains strong
and pent-up demand still exists for additional senior housing product, particularly ,for affordable
and independent senior housing. Demand over the next two decades will be particularly strong
for ownership products such as cooperative, condominiums and townhomes which are geared
towards the active, independent lifestyles of recent retirees. While demand for more service-
intensive senior housing may not see the same growth potential, life expectancies and seniors'
incomes are increasing and. greater awareness .and acceptance of these housing .options. shquld
equate to higher capture rates. Furthermore, the leading edge of the baby boom will begin enter
their mid-70s shortly after 2020 and thus, additional Assisted Living and Memory Care hOllsing
will continue to be needed as the population continues to age and as the public becomes more
familiar with these concepts and aware of their benefits.
Most sub-markets will have high growth potential with increasing numbers of senior households.
High occupancy rates and rapid absorption in independent housing indicates pent-up demand
exists in nearly all markets with the potential to develop additional product throughout the Metro
Area. While some submarkets could experience saturation in Assisted Living product over the
short~term, we believe this will likely be temporal)', as .the demand for Assisted. Living should
continue to grow as the population ages. Assisted Living housing should remain strong in
.
-2JJ-
..
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+
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
. developments where a continuum of care exists and as the independent components feed iqto the
more.service~intensive components. Also, the increasingly competitive market will likely create
a need to update older developments in response to the markets changing needs and preferenc~s.
The greatest potential over the next two decades will be for developments that cater to the active
lifestyles of aging baby boomers. New construction should satisfy much of the demand, but
potential also exists to convert other housing developments to senior housing as the population
ages. Older rental or condominium buildings with a majority of studio and one-bedroom ooits
may be reconfigured to have larger one-bedroom or two-bedroom units and/or may need to
reposition themselves by adding services to meet the needs of residents as they age in place.
Also, the market for moderately-priced senior housing is substantial, particularly for core city
neighborhoods as well as for Affordable product that would offer support and personal care
s ervlces.
It is important to note that significant demand remains in the two core cities as well as the
suburbs. In.fact, the two communities have, by far, lower market. penetration rates than the
suburban submarkets. The lack of senior housing development in the Metro Area's core Cities
has expedited the declines in their sem or base. Figures 20 and 21 present recent trends relating
to senior population and household growth trends in the Twin Cities Metro Area.
FIGURE 20
TOP 15 METRO AREA COMMUNITIES BY SENIOR POPULATION
.
Rnk
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
.
City
Minneapolis
81. Paul
Bloomington
Edina
Minnetonka
Roseville
81. Louis Park
Richfield
Maplewood
Plymouth
Brooklyn Center
Coon Rapids
Bumsville
Golden Valley
Brooklyn Park
Source: us Census
65+ Pop
1990 2000
47:>718 34:>878
37:>412 29:>647
8:>882 13:>358
9:>386 10:>765
4:>761 7:>165
5:>629 6:>828
7:>068 6:>478
6:>052 5:>633
3:>680 5:>257
2:>543 4:>987
3:>546 4:>507
2:>463 4:>496
1:>981 4:>358
3:>472 3:>978
1,873 3:>785
- 21-
Change
# 0/0
-12,840 -=i7%
-7,765 -21%
4,476 50%
1,379 15%
2,404 50%
1,199 21%
-590 -8%
-419 -7%
1,577 43%
2:>444 96%
961 27%
2,033 83%
2,377 120%
506 15%
1,912 102%
.
.
.
...
i
.(IF'II. ~~fi~~:.. Iltc.
~
..
SENIOR HOUSING UPDATE 2003
Figure 21
Senior (Age 65+) Household Change
Twin Cities Metro Area
1990 to 2000
....
4
r:;l
it
[j=
fl. I ~
ChaJlge in Sellior (65+) Households
1990 to 2000
. 1,000 to 3,100 households
II 500 to 1]1000 households
o 200 to 500 households
D 0 to 200 hou:seholdSi
o -200 to 0 l1.o1J.SehoJds;
D -500 to -200 households
o -9,100 to -500 households
Maxfield Research Inc.
- 22-