StarTribune Article 03-26-2015 "Census finds suburban growth yet to rebound"Census finds suburban growth yet to rebound I Star Tribune
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Census finds suburban growth yet to rebound
Article by: DAVID PETERSON , Star Tribune Updated: March 26, 2015 - 6:31 AM
Census finds that once fastest-growing segments are being eclipsed by Hennepin -
Ramsey numbers.
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Another year of modest suburban growth is
reviving a debate over the longer-term prospects
for a once -booming ring of the metro area.
The five suburban counties that since the 1940s
have always grown at least twice as fast as the
two big urban counties they border — and
occasionally faster — are now slowing down,
collectively trailing Hennepin and Ramsey so far
this decade, according to U.S. Census estimates
to be released Thursday.
Ramsey County, for half a century the slowest -
growing of the metro counties, is now growing as
quickly as suburban neighbor Washington
County. In the '90s, Washington grew eight times
faster.
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Anoka and Dakota counties have shown the El
weakest growth so far in the seven -county metro West Metro Update
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http://www.startribune.com/local/297605721.html 3/26/2015
Census finds suburban growth yet to rebound I Star Tribune
We have seen a bit of a mirror image in the
central cities," where growth is accelerating.
Over the past three years, Cathy Bennett has
been involved in dozens of discussions with
suburban officials about development patterns as
part of her work with the Urban Land Institute.
The monthly sessions feature former Edina city
administrator Gordon Hughes and a rotating
panel of developers.
"In every conversation we've had," Bennett said,
"probably the key theme is, 'Realistically, how are
the suburban communities going to remain
competitive?'— and how they need to look at
things differently to be more attractive to a new
generation, which includes more immigrants."
Life in the exurbs
The latest U.S. Census estimates also show
flickers of life, after years of losses, in exurban
areas.
St. Croix County in Wisconsin — Hudson and its
environs — has the sixth -fastest rate of growth
among Wisconsin counties, while Polk, to its
north, showed the first slight uptick after years of
big losses. On the Minnesota side, Sherburne
and Wright counties have seen their strongest
growth in years.
Statewide, 46 counties have seen losses so far
this decade, though some were minor. Drops of 3
percent or more occurred in 17 of the 87 counties.
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http://www.startribune.com/local/297605721.html 3/26/2015
Census finds suburban growth yet to rebound I Star Tribune Page 2 of 4
The numbers suggest that the softening of
suburban growth, which began around 2005, is
"not a short -run thing," said consulting
demographer Tom Gillaspy.
"In 2010, people were saying, 'When we're fully qui
recovered from the recession, we'll go right back
to this house -buying thing,"' Gillaspy said. "And
Peter
some of us were saying, 'We're not so sure.'
We're not seeing it go back to the way it was."
0
by a
For the decade so far — from 2010 to 2014 —
0
census estimates say, longtime growth leader
on
C.
Scott County is running slightly ahead of
neighboring Carver — 7.5 percent to 6.9 percent.
view,
But Scott's growth is showing signs of slackening
year by year, while Carver is trending upward. In
the year from 2013 to 2014, Carver tops metro
counties.
"We hear a lot that millennials are not as
interested in buying or in moving out of the central
cities," said Victoria City Manager Laurie
Hokkanen. "But drive around our new
neighborhoods and you'll see young families in
their late 20s to early 30s who've clearly decided
this is the lifestyle they want."
Although growth is not what it used to be, she
said, "we're at a comfortable pace for us. We
know that people move here for the small-town
feel," and get edgy when growth is too rapid.
Overall, however, said Craig Helmstetter, senior
research manager for the Wilder Foundation,
"these latest estimates continue a trend that
we've been tracking:
"The pendulum seems to be swinging from the
explosive population growth that we saw in the
suburbs during the '50s and '60s toward more
moderate growth since the turn of the century.
http://www.startribune.com/local/297605721.html 3/26/2015